2019-20 Season

[RiseAndGrind]

I don’t want anyone taking a mid range shot except JP. 
 

where does that leave me lol 

[NH]

30 minutes ago, ARon said:

Analytics will almost always say the mid range shot is not a good option.  Hence:

Im about as pro-analytics as you’ll find, but looking at that chart and saying a Javonte Perkins mid-range jump shot is a bad shot in SLU’s offense is an incorrect application of data. 

[Spoon-Balls]

3 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Dayton up to 4th in the NET, 4th in the AP, and 3rd in the Coach's Beauty Pagent.  Good for the A10.

Would love to have a 3rd go at them in Brooklyn. 

[Spoon-Balls]

Edit: double post

[3star_recruit]

11 minutes ago, NH said:

Im about as pro-analytics as you’ll find, but looking at that chart and saying a Javonte Perkins mid-range jump shot is a bad shot in SLU’s offense is an incorrect application of data. 

It's the equivalent of a 30% shot from 3.  Also since his shot is so soft from that distance, our elite rebounders often get the rebound when he misses.  It's a good shot for Perkins in our offense and a bad shot for everybody else.

[NH]

10 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

It's the equivalent of a 30% shot from 3.  Also since his shot is so soft from that distance, our elite rebounders often get the rebound when he misses.  It's a good shot for Perkins in our offense and a bad shot for everybody else.

We also don’t have the commensurate spacing needed to get a 30% look from 3 at all times. 

[glazedandconfused]

nm

but we have had some good spacing all year.

[3star_recruit]

2 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

Our offense has had some of the best spacing/ball movement in the A10. We’re getting a ton of open jumpers and it’s not crazy to think we should trying to make as many of those jumpers 3 as possible.

 

 

Agreed.  Which is why Perkins took a ton of 3s even before they started falling.  His history as a basketball player indicated he would eventually shoot about 35% from there, and that's how his stats are trending.  When Gibson gets back, teams will fear us from 3.

[NH]

6 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

nm

but we have had some good spacing all year.

That’s not necessarily what that data suggests. I personally don’t think that’s a very useful stat. The only thing it might hint at is Hasahn getting double teamed a lot in the post, but that’s not the same as good spacing.

[NH]

12 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

nm

but we have had some good spacing all year.

We rank last in the A-10, and 9th last in the NCAA in 3PA/FGA. The ones we do take tend to be unguarded, which makes sense since we don’t like taking them to begin with and teams are packing the paint to defend us. It’s next to impossible to have good spacing all year and also shoot fewer 3s than almost every other division one team.

[BIG BILL FAN]

41 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

It's the equivalent of a 30% shot from 3.  Also since his shot is so soft from that distance, our elite rebounders often get the rebound when he misses.  It's a good shot for Perkins in our offense and a bad shot for everybody else.

This whole discussion is ridiculous. Obviously you would like an uncontested layup every time down the court, but guess what that’s not happening. What is a good or bad shot, depends on the skill of the team, the quality of the defense, the time remaining on the clock and the score of the game and I’m sure other variables. Obviously it’s a plus if you have a competent midrange game. If you are trailing by 1 point with 5 seconds to play, wouldn’t you rather have Perkins shoot a mid range shot than a 3 point attempt? 

[3star_recruit]

25 minutes ago, NH said:

We rank last in the A-10, and 9th last in the NCAA in 3PA/FGA. The ones we do take tend to be unguarded, which makes sense since we don’t like taking them to begin with and teams are packing the paint to defend us. It’s next to impossible to have good spacing all year and also shoot fewer 3s than almost every other division one team.

I'd curious how many of those unguarded shots are simply mid-range 2s.  We do tend to "shake off" 3s and take a couple of dribbles inside the line more than most teams.

[Sheltiedave]

Perkins is normally guarded by first the faster forward, and then the four, with our offense. This means French and Goodwin are free to wheel and deal in the paint for offensive boards.

When Perkins plays outside in, Goodwin gets all sorts of room on the weak side to work his magic.

[NH]

36 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I'd curious how many of those unguarded shots are simply mid-range 2s.  We do tend to "shake off" 3s and take a couple of dribbles inside the line more than most teams.

The stat he posted was catch-and-shoot, so I’m guessing very few of them are 2s. 

[Fraz42]

3 hours ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I don’t want anyone taking a mid range shot except JP. 
 

where does that leave me lol 

Give me JGood from 15 feet every day and twice on Sunday 

[ARon]

3 hours ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I don’t want anyone taking a mid range shot except JP. 
 

where does that leave me lol 

I think that makes you sensible and correct.

[ARon]

3 hours ago, NH said:

Im about as pro-analytics as you’ll find, but looking at that chart and saying a Javonte Perkins mid-range jump shot is a bad shot in SLU’s offense is an incorrect application of data. 

Well that is NBA data which presumes teams that have multiple players who can shoot from outside.  SLUs offense certainly doesn’t fit that description.

I like Perkins taking mid range jumpers though I doubt they are often the best shot available. 
I cringe when anyone else, including Goodwin, takes them.

[slufanskip]

Just curious how many players from the A10 every year end up in the NBA. This is a bit like saying a dunk is a higher percentage shot and everyone should do it to players without the ability to dunk. SLU does not have the players nor do 90% + of D1 teams  to limit their shot attempts to inside the paint or outside the 3 point line. This shooting just shots in the paint or from 3 sounds really nice but in reality just isn't realistic. If SLU could make it work do you not think they have all the info at their disposal that you do? Is it possible the coaches just aren't as knowledgeable about basketball offense's as Bills.com posters? I heard a bit of Coach Ford's radio show tonight, he seems to think Perkins mid range shot is a good shot.

[glazedandconfused]

8 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Just curious how many players from the A10 every year end up in the NBA. This is a bit like saying a dunk is a higher percentage shot and everyone should do it to players without the ability to dunk. SLU does not have the players nor do 90% + of D1 teams  to limit their shot attempts to inside the paint or outside the 3 point line. This shooting just shots in the paint or from 3 sounds really nice but in reality just isn't realistic. If SLU could make it work do you not think they have all the info at their disposal that you do? Is it possible the coaches just aren't as knowledgeable about basketball offense's as Bills.com posters? I heard a bit of Coach Ford's radio show tonight, he seems to think Perkins mid range shot is a good shot.

 

Definitely not just a “stop shooting  midrange issue” and there’s more nuance to it like you said above. So good points are made by you and others. One reason I find shot selection to be so important is because it’s one of the few things that isn’t just luck. People will miss shots and get bad bounces, but you can improve your odds by improving your shot selection. And this isn’t limited to Perkins shooting mid-range. It can be applied to others forcing it in traffic or after an offensive rebound.

 

 

[slufanskip]

41 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

 

Definitely not just a “stop shooting  midrange issue” and there’s more nuance to it like you said above. So good points are made by you and others. One reason I find shot selection to be so important is because it’s one of the few things that isn’t just luck. People will miss shots and get bad bounces, but you can improve your odds by improving your shot selection. And this isn’t limited to Perkins shooting mid-range. It can be applied to others forcing it in traffic or after an offensive rebound.

 

 

Shot selection isn't luck and it is controllable to some extent. Remember there is a defense who has scouted you, knows exactly what you want to do and has practiced with the goal of taking that away. How many times do we see SLU or any team not get a great shot near the end of the shot clock? Do we want them to have passed up a midrange jumper that they can hit at 45% earlier in the clock? The game is partially about dictating what you want to do offensively and partially about taking advantage of the opportunities as they present themselves

[glazedandconfused]

16 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Shot selection isn't luck and it is controllable to some extent. Remember there is a defense who has scouted you, knows exactly what you want to do and has practiced with the goal of taking that away. How many times do we see SLU or any team not get a great shot near the end of the shot clock? Do we want them to have passed up a midrange jumper that they can hit at 45% earlier in the clock? The game is partially about dictating what you want to do offensively and partially about taking advantage of the opportunities as they present themselves

In theory that sounds good but our offense is well equipped to get relatively open 3s and we have 3 really good 3 point shooters (plus Yuri who has been fine in limited attempts). Play to your strengths, not just take the easy shot. There’s a reason we’re getting a ton of mid range attempts, that’s because defenses want you to shoot those.

To put it simply, games like the UMass loss are the issue. We went 5-11 from 3. We were banging 3s and then just stopped shooting them. I know Umass adjusted, but if we can’t design plays to get open looks from deep, what are we even doing?

[Sheltiedave]

The top 20 teams have multiple players who can score at all three levels, and usually have 5/6 players who can score at two levels. As the defense dictates what gets taken away, and which players they will not allow to score at will, it is up to the offense to take advantage of what is available, and adopt their approach, and shot selection in-game.

We have improved this season by developing our outside in play, pushing the pace hard, and developing better 3 pt shooting on the fly.

Getting and taking open midrange shots can be the straw that stirs the drink for some teams. We have had games where we desperately needed Perkins to score at all three levels, so any basket he made, or fouls, was our best offense.

[NH]

3 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

In theory that sounds good but our offense is well equipped to get relatively open 3s and we have 3 really good 3 point shooters (plus Yuri who has been fine in limited attempts). Play to your strengths, not just take the easy shot. There’s a reason we’re getting a ton of mid range attempts, that’s because defenses want you to shoot those.

 

I don't mean to harp on this point, but when you say "play to your strengths", I think you're oversimplifying the broader point. 3-point shooting is not a strength of this team, though it could be next year. If it were a strength, we wouldn't be last in the A-10 in 3-point attempts. We start two guards (Yuri and Goodwin) who are for now below average 3-point shooters. Yes, Yuri is at 30.8% which isn't horrible, but it's been steadily trending down and it's clear he's not yet comfortable shooting them. 

I too would love to see Jacobs, Weaver and Perkins get more open looks from three. But unfortunately teams are able to take that away from us a lot of the time. I think your stance could prove to be more fitting next season when we have Jimerson and Thatch back. But, at present, it's hard to fault this team for not taking more threes, since that's just not one of our strengths. 

[glazedandconfused]

2 minutes ago, NH said:

I don't mean to harp on this point, but when you say "play to your strengths", I think you're oversimplifying the broader point. 3-point shooting is not a strength of this team, though it could be next year. If it were a strength, we wouldn't be last in the A-10 in 3-point attempts. We start two guards (Yuri and Goodwin) who are for now below average 3-point shooters. Yes, Yuri is at 30.8% which isn't horrible, but it's been steadily trending down and it's clear he's not yet comfortable shooting them. 

I too would love to see Jacobs, Weaver and Perkins get more open looks from three. But unfortunately teams are able to take that away from us a lot of the time. I think your stance could prove to be more fitting next season when we have Jimerson and Thatch back. But, at present, it's hard to fault this team for not taking more threes, since that's just not one of our strengths. 

We are 5th in A10 in 3 point shooting % as a team and an A per Wiz rating system and second in the A10 in wide open catch and shoot  opportunities.

[billikenbill]

4 minutes ago, NH said:

I don't mean to harp on this point, but when you say "play to your strengths", I think you're oversimplifying the broader point. 3-point shooting is not a strength of this team, though it could be next year. If it were a strength, we wouldn't be last in the A-10 in 3-point attempts. We start two guards (Yuri and Goodwin) who are for now below average 3-point shooters. Yes, Yuri is at 30.8% which isn't horrible, but it's been steadily trending down and it's clear he's not yet comfortable shooting them. 

I too would love to see Jacobs, Weaver and Perkins get more open looks from three. But unfortunately teams are able to take that away from us a lot of the time. I think your stance could prove to be more fitting next season when we have Jimerson and Thatch back. But, at present, it's hard to fault this team for not taking more threes, since that's just not one of our strengths. 

Out of reactions, good post.