2019-20 Season

[slu72]

I'm expecting us to be like St B's last year. Not a good showing in the OOC but they figure out what's up w D1 ball and surprise some people in the second half of the A10 sched. Could make us a threat in the A10 tourney. Not more than 20 Ws, but slightly better than .500. That would be a solid year for such a young team. 

[Old guy]

Why all the gloom and doom. Statistically accidents and sickness are not distributed equally year after year. You may  have a team with all 5 key players laid low in a year due to disease or injury. The same team may not have a single injury or sickness the next year. The idea that if you have 5 key players one is likely to be injured, but not all 5 is just not correct. It will be what it will be. If we have an edge against sickness or injury it is Ford. For the last 3 seasons he has managed to do better with depleted teams, injured players, and sudden departures than could be expected. After losing Santos, and Gordon how many of you honestly thought we could possible win the A10 tournament and grab a spot at the Dance last season.? I did not expect that. When we lost Gordon, I  thought we would probably not make a .500 season. When Bess was injured and his play suffered, I was sure we would not make .500. That may not have been what I was posting but deep inside I thought we were done for the year. But we surely did better than that. We got a guy that had good and bad playing streaks (Tramaine) to play like he had not done before at the end of the season. Any one of you does not believe that Ford in getting us were we got last season?

Well we still have Ford plus a lot of untested talent. We may or may not have sickness or injury, but with Ford around we have at least the potential to have a good season regardless. "In Ford we trust" is more than a catchy phrase.

[philliken]

Already watched this ten times; think I’ll go watch it another ten times before I doze of...

https://mobile.twitter.com/SLUnaticsSTL/status/1153424812431302657

[Clock_Tower]

15 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Don't need it to happen to all 5. You saw what happened to our Bills once Bess injured his foot. We were a bad team until Isabell went nuts the last 10 games. These projections are counting on non-shooters to carry the team offensively AND for no key player to get sick, injured or under perform. When has that ever happened in the history of Billiken basketball?

3 Star. 

Who are you calling a non-shooter?   And by "shooters", do you mean perimeter shooters?  Since when have we required our "key" players to all be "shooters"?   Since when have we not been been able to assume reasonable health for the upcoming year?   The reference made about health was to Cody Ellis who had a terrible Sophomore year due to a firecracker injury to his hand and then mono which caused him to under perform. You think Goodwin and French won't up their games as the "go to" guys during their this, their Junior years?  You think Thatch will fail with an increased offensive role?  You think Weaver and Perkins will fail at the higher D1 level?

I don't care how they do it, or from what spot on the court they take their shot, but I want and expect Goodwin and French to want the ball, call for the ball and make clutch shots.   Now, I am expecting either to do this from the 3 point line or for either to become a "shooter"?   

Is it reasonable to expect 1 or even 2 of our 5 experienced players (Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins) to become injured or under perform?   Sure.   But, that would be 5 guys and if 1 or 2 had issues, then the other 3 or 4 can (and likely will) step up -- or we then turn to any 1 or more of the Freshman/newer players to step up.   As pointed out, our guys did then when the S2 guys were kicked off the team, when Santos left, when Gordon left....    My point: unlike 2010-11, this year we would be asking Freshmen/newer players to fill in for, or step into the shoes of, 1 or 2 of the experienced players.   That is completely different than starting/playing mostly Freshman and having them lead, score, run the offense and make clutch plays - all because the experienced players were kicked off the team due to S1. In 2010-11, we had Conklin, we had an injured/ill under performing Soph in Ellis and we had 2 career roles players in Remeken and Cassity.   

[moytoy12]

8 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

3 Star. 

Who are you calling a non-shooter?   And by "shooters", do you mean perimeter shooters?  Since when have we required our "key" players to all be "shooters"?   Since when have we not been been able to assume reasonable health for the upcoming year?   The reference made about health was to Cody Ellis who had a terrible Sophomore year due to a firecracker injury to his hand and then mono which caused him to under perform. You think Goodwin and French won't up their games as the "go to" guys during their this, their Junior years?  You think Thatch will fail with an increased offensive role?  You think Weaver and Perkins will fail at the higher D1 level?

I don't care how they do it, or from what spot on the court they take their shot, but I want and expect Goodwin and French to want the ball, call for the ball and make clutch shots.   Now, I am expecting either to do this from the 3 point line or for either to become a "shooter"?   

Is it reasonable to expect 1 or even 2 of our 5 experienced players (Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins) to become injured or under perform?   Sure.   But, that would be 5 guys and if 1 or 2 had issues, then the other 3 or 4 can (and likely will) step up -- or we then turn to any 1 or more of the Freshman/newer players to step up.   As pointed out, our guys did then when the S2 guys were kicked off the team, when Santos left, when Gordon left....    My point: unlike 2010-11, this year we would be asking Freshmen/newer players to fill in for, or step into the shoes of, 1 or 2 of the experienced players.   That is completely different than starting/playing mostly Freshman and having them lead, score, run the offense and make clutch plays - all because the experienced players were kicked off the team due to S1. In 2010-11, we had Conklin, we had an injured/ill under performing Soph in Ellis and we had 2 career roles players in Remeken and Cassity.   

I think another difference to account for is the difficulty our 2010-11 freshman likely had picking up/executing RM's offense.  I don't get the sense that Ford's offense requires as difficult a transition from HS to college. 

[BIG BILL FAN]

15 hours ago, Old guy said:

Why all the gloom and doom. Statistically accidents and sickness are not distributed equally year after year. You may  have a team with all 5 key players laid low in a year due to disease or injury. The same team may not have a single injury or sickness the next year. The idea that if you have 5 key players one is likely to be injured, but not all 5 is just not correct. It will be what it will be. If we have an edge against sickness or injury it is Ford. For the last 3 seasons he has managed to do better with depleted teams, injured players, and sudden departures than could be expected. After losing Santos, and Gordon how many of you honestly thought we could possible win the A10 tournament and grab a spot at the Dance last season.? I did not expect that. When we lost Gordon, I  thought we would probably not make a .500 season. When Bess was injured and his play suffered, I was sure we would not make .500. That may not have been what I was posting but deep inside I thought we were done for the year. But we surely did better than that. We got a guy that had good and bad playing streaks (Tramaine) to play like he had not done before at the end of the season. Any one of you does not believe that Ford in getting us were we got last season?

Well we still have Ford plus a lot of untested talent. We may or may not have sickness or injury, but with Ford around we have at least the potential to have a good season regardless. "In Ford we trust" is more than a catchy phrase.

I'm also hoping this year, that we start to become more of a running, and a high pressure defensive team. I think this style, plays to the strengths of Goodwin, French, Thatch, and a few of the newcomers. 

[ACE]

23 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I agree that we should temper our expectations somewhat, but the junior versions of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French, appropriately complemented, are among the top 15 (maybe top 10) players in the conference and should have a floor of NIT.

Sure there are plenty of freshmen, but the two aforementioned juniors are studs, another junior (Perkins) is supposed to be a bucket-getter (though it remains to be seen how long it will take him to get acclimated to D-1 level of play), and the senior/grad transfer (Weaver) is a defensive dynamo.

I think they should be better than .500.  Maybe not NCAA at-large worthy, but in the hunt for the NIT and perhaps gelling enough to repeat as A-10 Tournament champs.

The success Bonawelding had last year following the graduations of Adams and Mobley, gives me hope that it could be a good season for us if things break just right.  Like us, Bonnie had two Top 15 conference caliber veterans returning in Stockard and Griffin (although it's debatable if Griffin was even a Top 15 level player). We'll have Goodwin and French to anchor our squad, with a lot of newcomers. The key to Bonnies success was they had three freshmen who exceeded expectations and made an impact with their two veterans. 

I think the Bonnies had more question marks heading into last season, then we have heading into this year, yet they still finished 4th in the league and were just a 3-pointer away from making the Dance. Yes, the A-10 figures to be tougher this year, but talented freshmen who are not Mickey D's All-Americans can make a big impact in this league. IMO, the key will be how the complementary parts mesh. How will the shooters we're adding work with our young playmaker, and how will that benefit our returning bullyball type players. A lot will have to fall into place, but I think there is an interesting mix of players to have a good season.

[ACE]

4 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

I'm also hoping this year, that we start to become more of a running, and a high pressure defensive team. I think this style, plays to the strengths of Goodwin, French, Thatch, and a few of the newcomers. 

Running would figure to really help a player Hargrove and if Jacobs is to carve out a role, he's gonna need to play that style as well.

[Clock_Tower]

2 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

I'm also hoping this year, that we start to become more of a running, and a high pressure defensive team. I think this style, plays to the strengths of Goodwin, French, Thatch, and a few of the newcomers. 

BBF

I think you are correct.   We will have finally perimeter shooting this year in Jamison, Weaver, Perkins and Hargrove.  If the pressure having to be the team's outside shooter is taken off, then others like Thatch, Goodwin, Jacobs and Yuri may well step up and hit open or more open looks as they certainly have the talent and skill to do this.   Last year we had trouble running the floor and playing bullyball b/c of lack of depth -- not a problem this year.   Last year we also had trouble running the floor because Isabell (and Goodwin) turned the ball over so much -- this year, I expect Goodwin's improved play to continue, and this year (unlike last year) Goodwin will have more and better options with Weaver, Thatch, Jamison, Perkins, Hargrove, Jacobs and others as options on the break.   And possibly, Yuri and/or Weaver will be able to run some fast breaks for points as well - as opposed to Isabelle - with Goodwin slashing to the basket and rebounding like he does better than nearly anyone else.   Last year, we could not break zones as teams would slow the tempo to half court deliberate possessions -- but this year, we should be able to make teams pay for this strategy with improved PG play and with better shooting options in Weaver, Thatch, Jamison, Perkins, Hargrove and Jacobs.   And these outside shooters also will help our fast break points as well as our non-shooters can slash to the basket and then look for and pass to wide open shooters on the 3 point line.

[3star_recruit]

2 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

3 Star. 

Who are you calling a non-shooter?   And by "shooters", do you mean perimeter shooters?  Since when have we required our "key" players to all be "shooters"?   Since when have we not been been able to assume reasonable health for the upcoming year?   The reference made about health was to Cody Ellis who had a terrible Sophomore year due to a firecracker injury to his hand and then mono which caused him to under perform. You think Goodwin and French won't up their games as the "go to" guys during their this, their Junior years?  You think Thatch will fail with an increased offensive role?  You think Weaver and Perkins will fail at the higher D1 level?

I don't care how they do it, or from what spot on the court they take their shot, but I want and expect Goodwin and French to want the ball, call for the ball and make clutch shots.   Now, I am expecting either to do this from the 3 point line or for either to become a "shooter"?   

Is it reasonable to expect 1 or even 2 of our 5 experienced players (Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins) to become injured or under perform?   Sure.   But, that would be 5 guys and if 1 or 2 had issues, then the other 3 or 4 can (and likely will) step up -- or we then turn to any 1 or more of the Freshman/newer players to step up.   As pointed out, our guys did then when the S2 guys were kicked off the team, when Santos left, when Gordon left....    My point: unlike 2010-11, this year we would be asking Freshmen/newer players to fill in for, or step into the shoes of, 1 or 2 of the experienced players.   That is completely different than starting/playing mostly Freshman and having them lead, score, run the offense and make clutch plays - all because the experienced players were kicked off the team due to S1. In 2010-11, we had Conklin, we had an injured/ill under performing Soph in Ellis and we had 2 career roles players in Remeken and Cassity.   

Shooters have always been defined as perimeter shooters, whether it be from 15 feet or outside the arc.  And while the plan is obviously to make Goodwin and French the go-to players on offense, two guys who are non-shooters are easy to defend.  Make them shoot jump shots.  Foul French in the 2nd half.  And yes, I am saying that one of our key players will underperform.  Everyone isn't going to have a great year.  It has nothing to do with the Billikens.  That's just part of basketball. It happens every year to practically every team.

Defenses become tighter at the end of games.  In the last 5 minutes of a game, you need someone who can break down people off the dribble, hit jump shots and/or shoot free throws.  Neither of the guys we're relying on to carry the team is particularly strong at doing that.   We have Perkins, but he's coming from juco.  Could he fill that role?  Maybe, but jucos being the go-to guy off the bat isn't the norm.  It's not reasonable to expect it.  

I agree that the freshmen will not be called upon to do as much as the freshmen in 2010-11.  That's why you're seeing predictions for .500 and slightly above instead of the 12-19 record we had 9 years ago.  Expecting a team with this many new faces and this many unproven shooters to post a top conference 5 finish or be labeled a failure is incredibly unfair, to Coach Ford and these kids.

 

 

[cgeldmacher]

19 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

This year, if mono, fireworks accidents and injuries befalls Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins, yes, we will struggle.   But assuming normal, relative health, I expect Goodwin to dominate for us these next 2 years unlike anything Cassity every did.   And French, yes, I expect him to be solid like Conklin was for us.   And I expect Thatch to exceed anything Remeken and Ellis did their Soph years and to take his game up a level - offensively - as he has proven he can do this over his four (4) years in high school.  Is high school the same a high level D1 basketball?  Of course not.  But to ask a kid to now score is not asking him to do anything fundamentally different from what he has done at every prior year/level of basketball.   And Weaver is also a proven commodity who has played thee (3) years of D1 basketball.   And Perkins has played (and played well) in his 2 years of JUCO ball -- a far cry from a newbie Frosh right out of high school -- even those with the names of Jett, Evans, McCall and Loe.    Yes, those 2010-11 Frosh were great --- but they were great only AFTER improving their games from high school, after getting stronger, after gaining weight and after gaining experience.  If Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver play like upperclassmen are supposed to play and do the heavy lifting for Team Blue, then filling in the other roles with talented Frosh/newer players like Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra should be fine.   But if Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver fail, whether due to sickness, injury or inability to perform at this level, and if we end up relying upon Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, PG and running the offense, etc., then a repeat of 2010-11 could happen.   I don't think that will be the case.   I see us winning 2 out of 3 games and being in the top 6 of the A10 again.

 

I want the Billikens to get 20 wins.  I promise you that I do.  I hope that everything comes together and they do.  But what you are doing is an every year thing by guys on this board.  Go back and look.  Every year guys come on and start making wild predictions that the team, as constructed, can't meet.  Look at last year, the year before, the year before.  It's unfair to the team for these same guys to go overboard about the expectations and then ***** and moan when their unreasonably set expectations aren't met.

Goodwin hasn't dominated the past two years.  Why do you think he's going to suddenly dominate now?  I expect him to get better.  I expect him to shoot better this year, based upon improvement that I saw last year.  He averaged 10.5 points per game.  I expect him to average, maybe, 14 points per game next year.  That's reasonable.  Also, all that does is replace Bess.  So, now we replace Bess.  We then have to find someone to replace Goodwin's 10.5 per game just to have the same production as last year.

Thatch averaged 4.3 points per game last year.  If he triples that, which he certainly could do, but maybe its unlikely, then he averages 13 points per game and still doesn't replace the 13.7 points per game that Isabell scored last year.

French averaged 9.3 per game last year.  If he bumps that to 13 points per game, we've added 4 points per game to the 29 points we are missing from Bess and Isabell.

Then we're down to counting on new guys to come up with the rest, and we know how that's gone for us, and other teams for that matter, historically.

It's real easy to pound your chest and say that this guy or the other is going to "DOM-IN-ATE this year!!!" But these guys are who they are.  Will they all improve - Yes.  Will they have vastly different numbers next year than they did this past season - probably not.

I hope it all comes together and we end up better than last year.  It's just unfair to start saying that we expect that.  Don't do that to the guys on the team, the coaching staff, and yourselves.

 

[Clock_Tower]

1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said:

I want the Billikens to get 20 wins.  I promise you that I do.  I hope that everything comes together and they do.  But what you are doing is an every year thing by guys on this board.  Go back and look.  Every year guys come on and start making wild predictions that the team, as constructed, can't meet.  Look at last year, the year before, the year before.  It's unfair to the team for these same guys to go overboard about the expectations and then ***** and moan when their unreasonably set expectations aren't met.

Goodwin hasn't dominated the past two years.  Why do you think he's going to suddenly dominate now?  I expect him to get better.  I expect him to shoot better this year, based upon improvement that I saw last year.  He averaged 10.5 points per game.  I expect him to average, maybe, 14 points per game next year.  That's reasonable.  Also, all that does is replace Bess.  So, now we replace Bess.  We then have to find someone to replace Goodwin's 10.5 per game just to have the same production as last year.

Thatch averaged 4.3 points per game last year.  If he triples that, which he certainly could do, but maybe its unlikely, then he averages 13 points per game and still doesn't replace the 13.7 points per game that Isabell scored last year.

French averaged 9.3 per game last year.  If he bumps that to 13 points per game, we've added 4 points per game to the 29 points we are missing from Bess and Isabell.

Then we're down to counting on new guys to come up with the rest, and we know how that's gone for us, and other teams for that matter, historically.

It's real easy to pound your chest and say that this guy or the other is going to "DOM-IN-ATE this year!!!" But these guys are who they are.  Will they all improve - Yes.  Will they have vastly different numbers next year than they did this past season - probably not.

I hope it all comes together and we end up better than last year.  It's just unfair to start saying that we expect that.  Don't do that to the guys on the team, the coaching staff, and yourselves.

 

Understood.   And all reasonable comments you make.   Not trying to place undue expectations on anyone.  And, as you know, I am the one who usually tells everyone to put down the blue koolaide. 

With that said, I believe we agree quite abit.   If Goodwin, French and Thatch all return as incrementally better players... then we will NOT be good and .500 is be reasonable.

To me, though, things will be different this year (and not just with the loss of Bess and Isabell).  Instead, our offense should click much better with Goodwin as an experienced Junior PG running the floor.  Our offense should also click better with perimeter shooters this year.   And the lanes for open space for Goodwin, French and Thatch will be much wider with both improved PG play and perimeter shooting.   Keep in mind, we were a TERRIBLE outside shooting -- so just being average will be such a huge improvement.  It's not that Thatch, Goodwin and French need to up their games all that much, but that if defenses simply are forced to play them man-for-man, then will automatically have success,   And if Goodwin does not run the offense well enough, then bring Yuri in to run the offense and put Goodwin at the 3 or 4.

[CBFan]

1 hour ago, cgeldmacher said:

I want the Billikens to get 20 wins.  I promise you that I do.  I hope that everything comes together and they do.  But what you are doing is an every year thing by guys on this board.  Go back and look.  Every year guys come on and start making wild predictions that the team, as constructed, can't meet.  Look at last year, the year before, the year before.  It's unfair to the team for these same guys to go overboard about the expectations and then ***** and moan when their unreasonably set expectations aren't met.

Goodwin hasn't dominated the past two years.  Why do you think he's going to suddenly dominate now?  I expect him to get better.  I expect him to shoot better this year, based upon improvement that I saw last year.  He averaged 10.5 points per game.  I expect him to average, maybe, 14 points per game next year.  That's reasonable.  Also, all that does is replace Bess.  So, now we replace Bess.  We then have to find someone to replace Goodwin's 10.5 per game just to have the same production as last year.

Thatch averaged 4.3 points per game last year.  If he triples that, which he certainly could do, but maybe its unlikely, then he averages 13 points per game and still doesn't replace the 13.7 points per game that Isabell scored last year.

French averaged 9.3 per game last year.  If he bumps that to 13 points per game, we've added 4 points per game to the 29 points we are missing from Bess and Isabell.

Then we're down to counting on new guys to come up with the rest, and we know how that's gone for us, and other teams for that matter, historically.

It's real easy to pound your chest and say that this guy or the other is going to "DOM-IN-ATE this year!!!" But these guys are who they are.  Will they all improve - Yes.  Will they have vastly different numbers next year than they did this past season - probably not.

I hope it all comes together and we end up better than last year.  It's just unfair to start saying that we expect that.  Don't do that to the guys on the team, the coaching staff, and yourselves.

 

Respectfully disagree with Goodwin not dominating, I watched J-Good dominate the boards and score put backs in the A10 tournament.

J-Good needs a lot of work on shooting and ball handling to become a dominant player.

[Clock_Tower]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Shooters have always been defined as perimeter shooters, whether it be from 15 feet or outside the arc.  And while the plan is obviously to make Goodwin and French the go-to players on offense, two guys who are non-shooters are easy to defend.  Make them shoot jump shots.  Foul French in the 2nd half.  And yes, I am saying that one of our key players will underperform.  Everyone isn't going to have a great year.  It has nothing to do with the Billikens.  That's just part of basketball. It happens every year to practically every team.

Defenses become tighter at the end of games.  In the last 5 minutes of a game, you need someone who can break down people off the dribble, hit jump shots and/or shoot free throws.  Neither of the guys we're relying on to carry the team is particularly strong at doing that.   We have Perkins, but he's coming from juco.  Could he fill that role?  Maybe, but jucos being the go-to guy off the bat isn't the norm.  It's not reasonable to expect it.  

I agree that the freshmen will not be called upon to do as much as the freshmen in 2010-11.  That's why you're seeing predictions for .500 and slightly above instead of the 12-19 record we had 9 years ago.  Expecting a team with this many new faces and this many unproven shooters to post a top conference 5 finish or be labeled a failure is incredibly unfair, to Coach Ford and these kids.

 

 

Fine.    1 of the 5 doesn't measure up.   We have quantity to offset that.    And will our new and newer players then need to step up?  Yes, but they won't have to carry the whole team -- just fill the role(s) of the experienced player who does not measure up.   The point as which I believe you and I may disagree, is that Goodwin, French and Thatch have already shown that they can, and will, have success if the defense plays them honest and/or in a man to man defense.  If teams pack the lane and/or play zone, all three become ineffective.    If we can finally have a balanced offense, with PG who can make others better and with perimeter shooters who will at least keep opposing defenses honest, then Goodwin, French and Thatch will have more than their share of success.   Last year, they had very little room to operate.   

[ACE]

1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Fine.    1 of the 5 doesn't measure up.   We have quantity to offset that.    And will our new and newer players then need to step up?  Yes, but they won't have to carry the whole team -- just fill the role(s) of the experienced player who does not measure up.   The point as which I believe you and I may disagree, is that Goodwin, French and Thatch have already shown that they can, and will, have success if the defense plays them honest and/or in a man to man defense.  If teams pack the lane and/or play zone, all three become ineffective.    If we can finally have a balanced offense, with PG who can make others better and with perimeter shooters who will at least keep opposing defenses honest, then Goodwin, French and Thatch will have more than their share of success.   Last year, they had very little room to operate.   

I really like what Thatch brings defensively, but I think I'm more restrained in my expectations for his offensive contributions during the upcoming season than many on the board... He ended last season scoring just 8 points in our final 6 games. He can make an incremental improvement, but I'm not counting on a major improvement offensively. That may come when he is an upperclassman, but I just don't see it this season. 

[3star_recruit]

55 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Fine.    1 of the 5 doesn't measure up.   We have quantity to offset that.    And will our new and newer players then need to step up?  Yes, but they won't have to carry the whole team -- just fill the role(s) of the experienced player who does not measure up.   The point as which I believe you and I may disagree, is that Goodwin, French and Thatch have already shown that they can, and will, have success if the defense plays them honest and/or in a man to man defense.  If teams pack the lane and/or play zone, all three become ineffective.    If we can finally have a balanced offense, with PG who can make others better and with perimeter shooters who will at least keep opposing defenses honest, then Goodwin, French and Thatch will have more than their share of success.   Last year, they had very little room to operate.   

And there's the rub. The rosy projections all depend on role players who have never played a second of D-1 ball to hit jump shots against zone defenses. If I had to bet $100 on their ability to do that, I would not take that bet.

[Old guy]

3 star the fact that you will not make that bet is simply that the odds would not be favorable enough if you won it. Assuming that a pro oddsmaker was calculating the odds in this case, it would mean that the oddsmaker thinks the odds against a player who has never played a second of  D1 ball may be better than what you think.

Not being a pro in this business I think such a bet would pay at least $10 per dollar bet. It might be interesting to see what pro oddsmakers think about the odds in this case.

[Clock_Tower]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

And there's the rub. The rosy projections all depend on role players who have never played a second of D-1 ball to hit jump shots against zone defenses. If I had to bet $100 on their ability to do that, I would not take that bet.

Not a "second of D-1" basketball?   To hit an outside shot?  

Tay Weaver has played 3 years of D-1 basketball and has made numerous perimeter shots - and apparently is quiet a good shooter. And yes,  Jimerson has not played a second of D-1 basketball but he sure has the size and appears to have the talent to hit outside shots.   Granted, we don't know about the other aspects of Jimerson's game -- but I would say shooting is not a questionable item for him.   And I thought even you said great things about Perkins and his perimeter shooting skills   And yes, Perkins is a JUCO, Perkin's also has not played a second of D-1 basketball, JUCO's usually have an adjustment period... but he is also not an 18 or 19 year who just finished high school either.   And between the 3 of them, we should have production from the perimeter.   And because of the 3 of them, the "burden" of shooting will be spread out over each of them and none of them will feel the entire pressure of the team/program all on their own shoulders.  

And again, as long we hit from the perimeter, the remaining slashers/scorers will have room to operate -- and in turn - be successful. Goodwin, French and Thatch don't need to gain strength, gain weight/mass, improve their quickness or otherwise start all over -- instead, all three guys need space to operate. 

[dennis_w]

I believe will find that hankton also can hit an outside shot. it has been reported that jacobs shot looks good. many freshman make a big jump in there soph year.jimerson had a prep school year playing against top competition. i agree with clock tower there will be shooters on this team

[cgeldmacher]

22 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Understood.   And all reasonable comments you make.   Not trying to place undue expectations on anyone.  And, as you know, I am the one who usually tells everyone to put down the blue koolaide. 

With that said, I believe we agree quite abit.   If Goodwin, French and Thatch all return as incrementally better players... then we will NOT be good and .500 is be reasonable.

To me, though, things will be different this year (and not just with the loss of Bess and Isabell).  Instead, our offense should click much better with Goodwin as an experienced Junior PG running the floor.  Our offense should also click better with perimeter shooters this year.   And the lanes for open space for Goodwin, French and Thatch will be much wider with both improved PG play and perimeter shooting.   Keep in mind, we were a TERRIBLE outside shooting -- so just being average will be such a huge improvement.  It's not that Thatch, Goodwin and French need to up their games all that much, but that if defenses simply are forced to play them man-for-man, then will automatically have success,   And if Goodwin does not run the offense well enough, then bring Yuri in to run the offense and put Goodwin at the 3 or 4.

You're right.  We agree on a lot more than it appeared.  I think all of the things you are saying could happen.  I am hopeful that all those things happen.  However, all of them would need to happen to make us better this season than last season.  That's asking a lot.  Here's to hoping.

[cgeldmacher]

22 hours ago, CBFan said:

Respectfully disagree with Goodwin not dominating, I watched J-Good dominate the boards and score put backs in the A10 tournament.

J-Good needs a lot of work on shooting and ball handling to become a dominant player.

I agree that Goodwin dominated the offense boards against the point guards that were guarding him.  It's a huge advantage that he has.  I don't agree that doing so is the equivalent of dominating in his overall game.  He's showing signs that he could become that player.  He just hasn't done it yet.

[Old guy]

I hope he gets there, and manages to make the NBA

[Clock_Tower]

2 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

You're right.  We agree on a lot more than it appeared.  I think all of the things you are saying could happen.  I am hopeful that all those things happen.  However, all of them would need to happen to make us better this season than last season.  That's asking a lot.  Here's to hoping.

Possibly.   Replacing Bess will be very, very tough.   Very few programs can replace a guy like him easily and very few programs can replace a guy as hot as Isabel down the stretch.  And yes, Goodwin play last year has not shown me that he has the overall game to carry the team and/or replace Bess.  If we expect Goodwin to be Bess and/or to be a shooter, we will be disappointed.  Instead, I expect we will see a different Goodwin if we have another shooter or two on the court with him.   And asking Perkins or  Weaver to replace Bess would also be asking a lot.   But to me, we will be asking this weight be spread out and carried by our 5 guys with experience (Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver) with some of these 5 being shooters (and others on our team also being shooters) but we will be asking these 5 to perform with defenses playing us honestly -- a lot easier than what Bess had to do for us last year.  

[Cowboy]

-I get that will run like LMU from 1990 but in situations where we can't I hope we have some effective sets to get JGood posting up on the block against a guard, with several players that can make the entry pass, as I think few could stop him down there

[billiken_roy]

2 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Possibly.   Replacing Bess will be very, very tough.   Very few programs can replace a guy like him easily and very few programs can replace a guy as hot as Isabel down the stretch.  And yes, Goodwin play last year has not shown me that he has the overall game to carry the team and/or replace Bess.  If we expect Goodwin to be Bess and/or to be a shooter, we will be disappointed.  Instead, I expect we will see a different Goodwin if we have another shooter or two on the court with him.   And asking Perkins or  Weaver to replace Bess would also be asking a lot.   But to me, we will be asking this weight be spread out and carried by our 5 guys with experience (Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver) with some of these 5 being shooters (and others on our team also being shooters) but we will be asking these 5 to perform with defenses playing us honestly -- a lot easier than what Bess had to do for us last year.  

Fyi when bess was a sophomore he was not even close to being as good as what Jordan Goodwin was as a sophomore