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2019-20 Season


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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

I don’t think it is wrong to talk about it. What happened isn’t just a SLU problem. It is a title IX problem.  If we don’t talk about the problem, it won’t ever be fixed. What happened at SLU is minor compared to many other cases. Young black males across the country have have their lives ruined.

 

You're absolutely right, but I wish we could turn our focus on this forum completely to sports and leave the social ills in the rear-view mirror.

Edited by Quality Is Job 1
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It's the time of year for Team Blue koolaid.  Jimerson is coming into an ideal situation to climb high on the Billiken 3 point career record list. 1st. has exceptional range and ability to create his own shot. He is much more than a spot up 3 point shooter. I rewatched some of his highlight videos and most of his shots were a full step and often 2 or more beyond the line. 2nd. the SLU veterans French and Goodwin are players with strong inside games that make teams want to play packed in zones. 3rd. Even though he is a freshman, the door is wide open, as there are no returning outside shooters. Jimerson has what this team desperately needs, a shooter who can stretch the floor.  It is well within his ability to be a 40%+, 3 point shooter.  4th. I believe Bell is also going to be an inside force starting this year, but even more so in years to follow. 5th. As Yuri gets comfortable he will be able to find Jimerson.  I'm looking forward to the development of this team this year and the development of these freshmen in the years to follow.  

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, dennis_w said:

I will drink the koolaid along with you. goodwin, thatch, and french will dominate physically and when the frosh get up to speed Team Blue will be feared. Collins will find the shooters and i can see this team doing a lot of running

The Koolaid is running low for me. I did not expect much from Bell based on his recruiting tape. I am excited about reports of his ability, but I am going to hold-off on believing it until the season. Based on the turnover we had, we should realistically expect a .500 season. I am back to simply expecting that kind of season, even though I am impressed with what I have seen from the freshmen so far.

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19 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

I'm expecting/hoping for an enjoyable season of basketball. I'm fine with a .500 season of mostly tightly contested games with a fun-to-watch offense and sometimes smothering defense.

I won't be happy at all with a .500 season, this team has too much talent to have such low expectations....

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15 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

I won't be happy at all with a .500 season, this team has too much talent to have such low expectations....

I’m expecting 500 or so too.

i really like the team I just have a hard time putting much faith in Freshman, even ones I think will eventually be impact players.

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5 minutes ago, dlarry said:

I’m expecting 500 or so too.

i really like the team I just have a hard time putting much faith in Freshman, even ones I think will eventually be impact players.

I agree that we should temper our expectations somewhat, but the junior versions of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French, appropriately complemented, are among the top 15 (maybe top 10) players in the conference and should have a floor of NIT.

Sure there are plenty of freshmen, but the two aforementioned juniors are studs, another junior (Perkins) is supposed to be a bucket-getter (though it remains to be seen how long it will take him to get acclimated to D-1 level of play), and the senior/grad transfer (Weaver) is a defensive dynamo.

I think they should be better than .500.  Maybe not NCAA at-large worthy, but in the hunt for the NIT and perhaps gelling enough to repeat as A-10 Tournament champs.

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6 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I agree that we should temper our expectations somewhat, but the junior versions of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French, appropriately complemented, are among the top 15 (maybe top 10) players in the conference and should have a floor of NIT.

Sure there are plenty of freshmen, but the two aforementioned juniors are studs, another junior (Perkins) is supposed to be a bucket-getter (though it remains to be seen how long it will take him to get acclimated to D-1 level of play), and the senior/grad transfer (Weaver) is a defensive dynamo.

I think they should be better than .500.  Maybe not NCAA at-large worthy, but in the hunt for the NIT and perhaps gelling enough to repeat as A-10 Tournament champs.

I agree with you about tempering expectations.  I few guys do this every year.  They set unreasonable standards for the team and they whine and moan when they're not met.  This team was 6th in the A10 and then lost a lot of contributors.  We replaced what we lost with unproven freshman, a JUCO that's never faced D1 competition, and a grad transfer.  I like this team a lot, but expecting them to improve on last year's 6th place finish in the A10 is foolish.

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We'll have one of the least experienced rosters in an improved A10. Six players have never played D-1 ball before. Our backup big was the 2nd big off the bench for his prep team. We've got one projected starter who is a good shooter and he's a juco.

Our youngsters are talented but that's a lot to overcome. If we finish a couple of games above .500 we've had a good season. We will be fun to watch, though.

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13 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I agree that we should temper our expectations somewhat, but the junior versions of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French, appropriately complemented, are among the top 15 (maybe top 10) players in the conference and should have a floor of NIT.

Sure there are plenty of freshmen, but the two aforementioned juniors are studs, another junior (Perkins) is supposed to be a bucket-getter (though it remains to be seen how long it will take him to get acclimated to D-1 level of play), and the senior/grad transfer (Weaver) is a defensive dynamo.

I think they should be better than .500.  Maybe not NCAA at-large worthy, but in the hunt for the NIT and perhaps gelling enough to repeat as A-10 Tournament champs.

Regarding 2 out of the top 15, you can say that about 6 other teams in the conference. And some of their players are already 1st and 2nd teamers.

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37 minutes ago, dlarry said:

I’m expecting 500 or so too.

i really like the team I just have a hard time putting much faith in Freshman, even ones I think will eventually be impact players.

With Jordan.French and Thatch I think we can win 20. Depends somewhat on how week our non conference schedule is. Twenty won't make the tournament but will be a good building block for next year. 

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5 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I agree that we should temper our expectations somewhat, but the junior versions of Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French, appropriately complemented, are among the top 15 (maybe top 10) players in the conference and should have a floor of NIT.

Sure there are plenty of freshmen, but the two aforementioned juniors are studs, another junior (Perkins) is supposed to be a bucket-getter (though it remains to be seen how long it will take him to get acclimated to D-1 level of play), and the senior/grad transfer (Weaver) is a defensive dynamo.

I think they should be better than .500.  Maybe not NCAA at-large worthy, but in the hunt for the NIT and perhaps gelling enough to repeat as A-10 Tournament champs.

Thicks.  No mention of Thatch (a returner) and that Weaver is a shooter as well as defensive guy?

With that said, will Goodwin and French actually play like top 10 guys in the A10?   Will they call for the ball - and make the shot - when the shot clock is ticking down like Bess did for us?  Cannot just be happy with offensive rebounding and junk baskets. Will Goodwin and French step up and break a "mini-drought" like Bess and even Isabell did?   If so, then not foolish at all to expect similar results as last year. 

Goodwin is a very good player and has certainly put up some good numbers - though he has been able to "fly under the radar" abit as teams focused on Bess and even Isabell and allow him to "come out of nowhere" with offensive rebounds and other scoring.  Then, again, the surrounding cast may be stronger for Goodwin and French this year in that Foreman's numbers were average (I believe he was injured most of the year), Wiley was average (also injured a lot of the year), Thatch was average (mostly defensive contributor in his first year) and Isabell was unpredictable and mostly neutral in that for most of the year he made as many good plays as he did mistakes -- but certainly was not a true PG.  If Goodwin and French step up and lead us like Juniors, then yes, I will be very disappointed with a .500 season as they should be able carry the team with increased contributions from Thatch offensively, with improved PG play (whether from Goodwin, Weaver or Yuri), with experience and skill from Weaver and Perkins and freshmen/newcomers/partially played players or "newer" players (Hankton & Jacobs) to fill in the remaining roles, and we should be good.   Not too much to ask talented new/newer guys to fill these roles --- but it is too much to ask the new/newer guys (whether talented or not) to carry the team, to lead the team, to make the clutch baskets, etc.  

But if French and Goodwin return and play their same roles as years past, if they toss the ball away like a hot potato when the shot clock is ticking down to a new or newer player and we are forced to rely on the new and newer guys for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, etc. - then similar results as last year is definitely unreasonable and .500 is reasonable.   Looking forward to the new season!!

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If we could get to the Dance last year despite our losses and injuries, I think we have a chance to  repeat this performance this year. I will go for better than .500 this year. I think our great advantage this year will be Jimerson's ability to shoot 3s which will kill the zone defense that has been successfully used against us by most other teams. Once we can force their hand into man to man defense I believe our chances will improve. Last year we won 23 games and lost 13, or .638 with an end of the season ranking at 104 as per Teamrankings. With Jimerson shooting effectively from outside the perimeter, I think we can do the same this year. This is, of course, a wild estimate.

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Last year Fred Thatch came aboard as one of the finalists for Missouri Mr. Basketball. He was a high school stud, best player on his team, and was a chiseled 6’3”, 210 lb power guard who dominated everyone.

He played 19 mpg freshman year, with a stat line of 4.3 pg, 2.7 rb, .8 assts, 36% from the field and 61% from the line, and providing major bench energy on defense.

You dip into a player who was not a starter, did not generate a stat line like Fred’s in high school, well you better expect him to be closer to Ian V’s freshman stat line than Browns junior stat line.

The other freshmen will have great seasons if they hit 8-10 ppg, can handle 20 mpg, and Jimerson can bust zones reliably while playing adequate defense in his floor time. I think only one of the four fresh can hit that level. If three hit that level, with no serious injuries we dance. If two hit that level, we are close to 20 wins.

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Looking forward to seeing Bell.  Saw in an article that he had the football bluebloods looking at him early in HS when he was focusing on football.  Since he was an offensive lineman that tells me had obviously had the strength for the position but also quickness and excellent athleticism given who was recruiting him.

Fast forward to now with that in mind.  Sure he was not a main player at his last HS stop for basketball, but he was what, 100lbs overweight and just starting to really focus on basketball?  Now he is at playing weight or close to it.  He is obviously ripped given the pics we've seen on Billikens.com.  Likely he has plenty of athleticism and enough quickness.

Do not expect him to be a big offensive threat.  But believe he will be a big defensive and rebounding plus.  And even if his offense lags, expecting some nice putbacks and throwdowns.

Yes drinking that blue Kool-Aid.

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55 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

Thicks.  No mention of Thatch (a returner) and that Weaver is a shooter as well as defensive guy?

With that said, will Goodwin and French actually play like top 10 guys in the A10?   Will they call for the ball - and make the shot - when the shot clock is ticking down like Bess did for us?  Cannot just be happy with offensive rebounding and junk baskets. Will Goodwin and French step up and break a "mini-drought" like Bess and even Isabell did?   If so, then not foolish at all to expect similar results as last year. 

Goodwin is a very good player and has certainly put up some good numbers - though he has been able to "fly under the radar" a bit as teams focused on Bess and even Isabell and allow him to "come out of nowhere" with offensive rebounds and other scoring.  Then, again, the surrounding cast may be stronger for Goodwin and French this year in that Foreman's numbers were average (I believe he was injured most of the year), Wiley was average (also injured a lot of the year), Thatch was average (mostly defensive contributor in his first year) and Isabell was unpredictable and mostly neutral in that for most of the year he made as many good plays as he did mistakes -- but certainly was not a true PG.  If Goodwin and French step up and lead us like Juniors, then yes, I will be very disappointed with a .500 season as they should be able carry the team with increased contributions from Thatch offensively, with improved PG play (whether from Goodwin, Weaver or Yuri), with experience and skill from Weaver and Perkins and freshmen/newcomers/partially played players or "newer" players (Hankton & Jacobs) to fill in the remaining roles, and we should be good.   Not too much to ask talented new/newer guys to fill these roles --- but it is too much to ask the new/newer guys (whether talented or not) to carry the team, to lead the team, to make the clutch baskets, etc.  

But if French and Goodwin return and play their same roles as years past, if they toss the ball away like a hot potato when the shot clock is ticking down to a new or newer player and we are forced to rely on the new and newer guys for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, etc. - then similar results as last year is definitely unreasonable and .500 is reasonable.   Looking forward to the new season!!

Well, your analysis went deeper than mine!  I didn't mean to slight anyone, but really I was just focusing on upperclassmen more than returning players.  Having said that, I do expect Thatch to be a significant contributor.

Still, more successful teams tend to rely more heavily on their juniors and seniors.  Goodwin and French seemed to be somewhat content to defer to Bess and Isabell as sophomores, but now the weight of the team's success (or [hopefully not] lack thereof) rests squarely on their shoulders.  They'll embrace that, and — along with the typical bump between sophomore and junior years — I think we'll see them play much more like standout players than guys filling a role.

Because of that, along with the untapped potential we believe those two young men have, I believe they can leapfrog some of the returning 1st- and 2nd-teamers @3star_recruit alluded to.  That's why I think its reasonable to expect the 2019-20 Bills to better than merely .500.  Obviously, it remains to be seen if they'll actually perform.

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I think people are being overly optimistic about the upcoming season.  I am excited about the freshmen class, but they'll go through some rough stretches while they learn.  French, Goodwin & Thatch is a nice core, but you need more than 3 players to have a good team.

My main piece of evidence that our upcoming season will be kind of rough is the 2010-11 season.  I understand that there were extenuating circumstances that caused issues that season (mainly Situation 1.0, but also Majerus missing time).  However, that season we returned nice core with a junior year Conklin & Cassity along with sophomore Ellis and Remekun.  We added to that arguably the most accomplished class in SLU history (Jett, Evans, McCall, and Loe).  However, we finished just 12 - 19, 10th in the A10 and weren't close to a postseason (NCAA or NIT) bid.  They were rated 127 by Kenpom (last year we finished 106) which is actually pretty good compared to their record .  I'm not sure we should be expecting the group for the upcoming season greatly surpass what the 2010-11 group did. 

We have a few things going for us this upcoming season that the 2010-11 group did not. 

  1. 2019-20 A10 is likely to be weaker than 2010-11.
  2. Hopefully heatlh: There has been wide speculation that Conklin was sort of hampered by injuries early in his career and was finally healthy when he took off as a senior.  Ellis had a nightmare sophomore season with mono and fireworks accidents standing over the summer and then missing time with injury during the year.
  3. Goodwin & French are stronger players than any of the returners on that 2010-11 team were at the time (again, we're not talking senior year Conklin here).  I don't know that the total difference between returnees is that drastic (I think 2010-11 had better returning depth), but I'd take 2019-20.
  4. Perkins and Tay Weaver are sort of wildcards that also add depth outside of what the freshmen are bringing
  5. Hopefully no off court issues.

On the flip side, health is no guarantee and as hyped as I am about them I can't imagine our freshmen being better than 2010-11.

Because of these, I'm hopeful we can finish .500 or above, top half of the A-10 (but likely outside top 4), top 130 in Kenpom.  Meeting those milestones would be a great success, IMO.  I fear that expecting an NCAA appearance or even an NIT appearance will lead to disappointment.

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1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

I think people are being overly optimistic about the upcoming season.  I am excited about the freshmen class, but they'll go through some rough stretches while they learn.  French, Goodwin & Thatch is a nice core, but you need more than 3 players to have a good team.

My main piece of evidence that our upcoming season will be kind of rough is the 2010-11 season.  I understand that there were extenuating circumstances that caused issues that season (mainly Situation 1.0, but also Majerus missing time).  However, that season we returned nice core with a junior year Conklin & Cassity along with sophomore Ellis and Remekun.  We added to that arguably the most accomplished class in SLU history (Jett, Evans, McCall, and Loe).  However, we finished just 12 - 19, 10th in the A10 and weren't close to a postseason (NCAA or NIT) bid.  They were rated 127 by Kenpom (last year we finished 106) which is actually pretty good compared to their record .  I'm not sure we should be expecting the group for the upcoming season greatly surpass what the 2010-11 group did. 

We have a few things going for us this upcoming season that the 2010-11 group did not. 

  1. 2019-20 A10 is likely to be weaker than 2010-11.
  2. Hopefully heatlh: There has been wide speculation that Conklin was sort of hampered by injuries early in his career and was finally healthy when he took off as a senior.  Ellis had a nightmare sophomore season with mono and fireworks accidents standing over the summer and then missing time with injury during the year.
  3. Goodwin & French are stronger players than any of the returners on that 2010-11 team were at the time (again, we're not talking senior year Conklin here).  I don't know that the total difference between returnees is that drastic (I think 2010-11 had better returning depth), but I'd take 2019-20.
  4. Perkins and Tay Weaver are sort of wildcards that also add depth outside of what the freshmen are bringing
  5. Hopefully no off court issues.

On the flip side, health is no guarantee and as hyped as I am about them I can't imagine our freshmen being better than 2010-11.

Because of these, I'm hopeful we can finish .500 or above, top half of the A-10 (but likely outside top 4), top 130 in Kenpom.  Meeting those milestones would be a great success, IMO.  I fear that expecting an NCAA appearance or even an NIT appearance will lead to disappointment.

RU.

OK.   If you compare this year's team to the 2010-11 Billiken team, then it helps make my point.   The upperclassmen from back then (Conklin & Cassity) are simply not on the same par as what I (many others) are expecting from Goodwin and French.   Even as a Senior (much less as a Junior), Cassity was a role player who never carried the team during his Billiken career.   Did he have some nice moments and games over his 4 years?  yes.  But he never lead or carried our team.   In fact, he started to become Jett's back-up his Junior year and then was fully relegated to Jett's back-up status his Senior year.   Similar story with Remekun.  Aside from the second half of his Senior year (and how many said they wished he had redshirted his Freshman or Soph year - in part because he was young for each of his years  in school and just finally figuring out the college game), Corey was average to poor (mostly defensive) his Sophomore year.  And yes, Ellis was simply not very good his Sophomore year either - dealing with mono, the fireworks accident, normal Soph slump....   Even when Ellis was healthy, neither he nor Conklin got the ball when they needed it until KM returned the following year.   In short, we had to rely upon our Freshman for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, running the offense/PG... and yes, the results were not great.   Jett turned the ball over every other possession is Freshman year and McCall was in over his head as well as a Frosh.

This year, if mono, fireworks accidents and injuries befalls Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins, yes, we will struggle.   But assuming normal, relative health, I expect Goodwin to dominate for us these next 2 years unlike anything Cassity every did.   And French, yes, I expect him to be solid like Conklin was for us.   And I expect Thatch to exceed anything Remeken and Ellis did their Soph years and to take his game up a level - offensively - as he has proven he can do this over his four (4) years in high school.  Is high school the same a high level D1 basketball?  Of course not.  But to ask a kid to now score is not asking him to do anything fundamentally different from what he has done at every prior year/level of basketball.   And Weaver is also a proven commodity who has played thee (3) years of D1 basketball.   And Perkins has played (and played well) in his 2 years of JUCO ball -- a far cry from a newbie Frosh right out of high school -- even those with the names of Jett, Evans, McCall and Loe.    Yes, those 2010-11 Frosh were great --- but they were great only AFTER improving their games from high school, after getting stronger, after gaining weight and after gaining experience.  If Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver play like upperclassmen are supposed to play and do the heavy lifting for Team Blue, then filling in the other roles with talented Frosh/newer players like Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra should be fine.   But if Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver fail, whether due to sickness, injury or inability to perform at this level, and if we end up relying upon Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, PG and running the offense, etc., then a repeat of 2010-11 could happen.   I don't think that will be the case.   I see us winning 2 out of 3 games and being in the top 6 of the A10 again.

 

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29 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

RU.

OK.   If you compare this year's team to the 2010-11 Billiken team, then it helps make my point.   The upperclassmen from back then (Conklin & Cassity) are simply not on the same par as what I (many others) are expecting from Goodwin and French.   Even as a Senior (much less as a Junior), Cassity was a role player who never carried the team during his Billiken career.   Did he have some nice moments and games over his 4 years?  yes.  But he never lead or carried our team.   In fact, he started to become Jett's back-up his Junior year and then was fully relegated to Jett's back-up status his Senior year.   Similar story with Remekun.  Aside from the second half of his Senior year (and how many said they wished he had redshirted his Freshman or Soph year - in part because he was young for each of his years  in school and just finally figuring out the college game), Corey was average to poor (mostly defensive) his Sophomore year.  And yes, Ellis was simply not very good his Sophomore year either - dealing with mono, the fireworks accident, normal Soph slump....   Even when Ellis was healthy, neither he nor Conklin got the ball when they needed it until KM returned the following year.   In short, we had to rely upon our Freshman for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, running the offense/PG... and yes, the results were not great.   Jett turned the ball over every other possession is Freshman year and McCall was in over his head as well as a Frosh.

This year, if mono, fireworks accidents and injuries befalls Goodwin, French, Thatch, Weaver and Perkins, yes, we will struggle.   But assuming normal, relative health, I expect Goodwin to dominate for us these next 2 years unlike anything Cassity every did.   And French, yes, I expect him to be solid like Conklin was for us.   And I expect Thatch to exceed anything Remeken and Ellis did their Soph years and to take his game up a level - offensively - as he has proven he can do this over his four (4) years in high school.  Is high school the same a high level D1 basketball?  Of course not.  But to ask a kid to now score is not asking him to do anything fundamentally different from what he has done at every prior year/level of basketball.   And Weaver is also a proven commodity who has played thee (3) years of D1 basketball.   And Perkins has played (and played well) in his 2 years of JUCO ball -- a far cry from a newbie Frosh right out of high school -- even those with the names of Jett, Evans, McCall and Loe.    Yes, those 2010-11 Frosh were great --- but they were great only AFTER improving their games from high school, after getting stronger, after gaining weight and after gaining experience.  If Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver play like upperclassmen are supposed to play and do the heavy lifting for Team Blue, then filling in the other roles with talented Frosh/newer players like Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra should be fine.   But if Goodwin, French, Thatch, Perkins and Weaver fail, whether due to sickness, injury or inability to perform at this level, and if we end up relying upon Jacobs, Hankton, Jamison, Yuri, Hargrove, Bell and Diarra for leadership, scoring, clutch scoring, PG and running the offense, etc., then a repeat of 2010-11 could happen.   I don't think that will be the case.   I see us winning 2 out of 3 games and being in the top 6 of the A10 again.

 

Injuries,  sickness, or underperformance by a key player are all part of the game. One of those three will happen to virtually every team. 

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27 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Injuries,  sickness, or underperformance by a key player are all part of the game. One of those three will happen to virtually every team. 

Yes.  To a key player.  But to all 5? And to all 5 in the same year?  Not at all likely.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Yes.  To a key player.  But to all 5? And to all 5 in the same year?  Not at all likely.

 

 

Don't need it to happen to all 5. You saw what happened to our Bills once Bess injured his foot. We were a bad team until Isabell went nuts the last 10 games. These projections are counting on non-shooters to carry the team offensively AND for no key player to get sick, injured or underperform. When has that ever happened in the history of Billiken basketball?

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