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Mike Lewis II - Coming Home


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1 hour ago, ACE said:

How many minutes for guards who don't have some D1 shooting skills? 

I think you are overestimating the shooting skills of Lewis.

If Lewis is going to get in the 25+ mpg, who is going to lose out on the minutes?  

You got 120 mpg at the 1-3 spot.  You are going to have to have either Goodwin or Collins on the court at all times.  I think you will see Collins and Goodwin on the court together for stretches, too.  Because of the lack of guards with PG skills I think Collins ends up getting  20+ mpg next season.  Let's say Goodwin gets 35 mpg a game next season and Collins gets 22 mpg. Let's say Thatch only gets 25 mpg game. That gets you to 82 minutes.  That leaves 38 minutes to be split between Jimerson (the actual best shooter on the team), Hargrove (the best athlete on the team), Hankton, Jacobs and Lewis.

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5 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Only if he wins the starting spot.  Let me pose a scenario where Thatch is the starter and plays some at the 3. And this is assumes the most favorable circumstances, where Jacobs doesn't play at all, Hargrove logs no minutes at the 3, and Thatch plays less than 25 min a game.

Goodwin/Collins 25/15

Thatch/Lewis/Jimerson 16/14/10

Perkins/Thatch/Goodwin 25/8/7

This is why Brian and I have been harping on the importance of point guard skills for small guards.  It allows them to stay on the floor.  Otherwise they have to shoot the lights out.

I really like Thatch and if his offense improves, you'll get no argument from me on him getting around 24 mpg. Under your breakdown though, I see more minutes for Lewis and fewer for Jimerson.

I do think the addition of Lewis, lessens the need for the possible grad transfer big (to be named later) to be a stretch big. Hankton gives us that look off the bench if needed and Lewis adds a much needed shooter (regardless of position), so I would be fine if the grad transfer big is more of a traditional low post type. 

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4 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I think you are overestimating the shooting skills of Lewis.

If Lewis is going to get in the 25+ mpg, who is going to lose out on the minutes?  

You got 120 mpg at the 1-3 spot.  You are going to have to have either Goodwin or Collins on the court at all times.  I think you will see Collins and Goodwin on the court together for stretches, too.  Because of the lack of guards with PG skills I think Collins ends up getting  20+ mpg next season.  Let's say Goodwin gets 35 mpg a game next season and Collins gets 22 mpg. Let's say Thatch only gets 25 mpg game. That gets you to 82 minutes.  That leaves 38 minutes to be split between Jimerson (the actual best shooter on the team), Hargrove (the best athlete on the team), Hankton, Jacobs and Lewis.

I never said 25 mpg, I think around 18-20 seems about right - which on most teams is top 7 in the rotation (I called it starter minutes, so technically that could be disputed).

My main point, is that in the way the game is played today, it seems you need at least two reliable shooters on the floor at the same time. Yuri, JG and FT are questionable whether they can shoot above 30% from 3. If JG and FT prove they can be more reliable outside shooting threats, then I totally agree that it will greatly reduce Lewis' minutes. 

But this team had an obvious need to add a guard who can shoot, and I'm glad Ford filled it. If nothing else, how great will it be to have a guard in the final minutes who will be able to shoot free throws and help protect a lead.

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8 minutes ago, ACE said:

I never said 25 mpg, I think around 18-20 seems about right - which on most teams is top 7 in the rotation (I called it starter minutes, so technically that could be disputed).

My main point, is that in the way the game is played today, it seems you need at least two reliable shooters on the floor at the same time. Yuri, JG and FT are questionable whether they can shoot above 30% from 3. If JG and FT prove they can be more reliable outside shooting threats, then I totally agree that it will greatly reduce Lewis' minutes. 

But this team had an obvious need to add a guard who can shoot, and I'm glad Ford filled it. If nothing else, how great will it be to have a guard in the final minutes who will be able to shoot free throws and help protect a lead.

And this team may have some not-so-obvious needs right now based on the departures we’ve seen the past two years...so TFord needs to get a couple of GT bigs and start with a full roster finally. 

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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Lewis could get starter minutes. It all depends on how well he shoots.  Everything else Thatch does better. In the case of defense, much better.

exactly, if he's shooting 38%+ from 3, hes gonna get plenty of minutes.  Also considering he can handle the ball, and hit FT at a high clip. I expect to see him at the end of games.   

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36 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Only if he wins the starting spot.  Let me pose a scenario where Thatch is the starter and plays some at the 3. And this is assumes the most favorable circumstances, where Jacobs doesn't play at all, Hargrove logs no minutes at the 3, and Thatch plays less than 25 min a game.

Goodwin/Collins 25/15

Thatch/Lewis/Jimerson 16/14/10

Perkins/Thatch/Goodwin 25/8/7

This is why Brian and I have been harping on the importance of point guard skills for small guards.  It allows them to stay on the floor.  Otherwise they have to shoot the lights out.

Man, I somehow forgot about Perkins. He will get around 20 mpg at least.  The 1-3 spots are super crowded.  And I still think we will see Goodwin and Collins on the court together at times to give Goodwin a chance to work down low at times.

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32 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I think you are overestimating the shooting skills of Lewis.

If Lewis is going to get in the 25+ mpg, who is going to lose out on the minutes?  

You got 120 mpg at the 1-3 spot.  You are going to have to have either Goodwin or Collins on the court at all times.  I think you will see Collins and Goodwin on the court together for stretches, too.  Because of the lack of guards with PG skills I think Collins ends up getting  20+ mpg next season.  Let's say Goodwin gets 35 mpg a game next season and Collins gets 22 mpg. Let's say Thatch only gets 25 mpg game. That gets you to 82 minutes.  That leaves 38 minutes to be split between Jimerson (the actual best shooter on the team), Hargrove (the best athlete on the team), Hankton, Jacobs and Lewis.

We don't know that for sure... although we expect it. At this point, assuming Lewis gets a waiver - he will play more minutes than Jimerson. 

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52 minutes ago, brianstl said:

  That leaves 38 minutes to be split between Jimerson (the actual best shooter on the team), 

when comparing to Lewis, yes, Im very confident that Jimersons career stats will be much better that Lewis.  But does that mean Jimersons will be better than Lewis next year?  Senior vs frosh, who knows. 

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

I think you are overestimating the shooting skills of Lewis.

If Lewis is going to get in the 25+ mpg, who is going to lose out on the minutes?  

You got 120 mpg at the 1-3 spot.  You are going to have to have either Goodwin or Collins on the court at all times.  I think you will see Collins and Goodwin on the court together for stretches, too.  Because of the lack of guards with PG skills I think Collins ends up getting  20+ mpg next season.  Let's say Goodwin gets 35 mpg a game next season and Collins gets 22 mpg. Let's say Thatch only gets 25 mpg game. That gets you to 82 minutes.  That leaves 38 minutes to be split between Jimerson (the actual best shooter on the team), Hargrove (the best athlete on the team), Hankton, Jacobs and Lewis.

 

1 hour ago, ACE said:

I never said 25 mpg, I think around 18-20 seems about right - which on most teams is top 7 in the rotation (I called it starter minutes, so technically that could be disputed).

My main point, is that in the way the game is played today, it seems you need at least two reliable shooters on the floor at the same time. Yuri, JG and FT are questionable whether they can shoot above 30% from 3. If JG and FT prove they can be more reliable outside shooting threats, then I totally agree that it will greatly reduce Lewis' minutes. 

But this team had an obvious need to add a guard who can shoot, and I'm glad Ford filled it. If nothing else, how great will it be to have a guard in the final minutes who will be able to shoot free throws and help protect a lead.

 

1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

The only guaranteed starters next year are French and Goodwin. After that it will depend on match ups it seems.

At this point, my only major concern with this team is who can spell French for 10-14 minutes each game. I'm not overly worried with how the guard minutes end up panning out, because they will distribute themselves based on performance, but it is fun to speculate about, especially considering our back-court stable is likely set (fingers crossed for no transfers or situations). Goodwin is probably locked in for at least 30, but then it's a total mystery.

Here's what I see as what question(s) each player has to answer to get a share of the remaining ~90 minutes:

 

Perkins: can he defend up to SLU standards?

Thatch: can he shoot/score, play more on the ball?

Collins: can he defend bigger guards, can he shoot?

Lewis: can he defend up to SLU standards, can he distribute the ball as a primary guard?

Jacobs: is he up to this level in terms of speed of thought, overall skill?

Jimerson: can he defend whatsoever (/can Ford find a way to hide him), can he play on the ball at all?

 

So Perkins and Thatch probably have the leg up to join Goodwin as starters, as they have fewer/smaller question marks to go along with more readily apparent high-level skills (scoring and defending, respectively). I don't feel like this is a particularly controversial take. Thatch was actually pretty horrendous offensively last year, so he needs to take a step-up if he wants to play more minutes than he did last year, but I'm cautiously optimistic on that front as he was a very good scorer and an average shooter in high school.

On the flip side, Jimerson and Jacobs have the most to prove and are really total question marks. Jimerson might only be good at shooting and nothing else, which would dramatically limit his playing time. Jacobs so far is totally unproven beyond his highlight reel of dunks and really has a lot of work to do in terms of shooting, ball-handling, and defending. Both have tremendous upside, but who knows where they actually are right now?

That leaves Collins and Lewis as the two guys most likely to get bench minutes to start, in large part because each brings one high-level skill (distributing and shooting, respectively). Ford went on record to say that Collins is an excellent defender, which is hopefully accurate and not just coach-speak. He's obviously undersized, so hopefully he shows some ability to handle post-up attempts by bigger guards and demonstrates better shooting ability than he did as a senior (when he was fresh off shoulder surgery). Lewis is a decidedly below average defender by advanced metrics, although he's about at the level that Isabell was at Drexel, and Tramaine wound up being an average defender in Ford's system so there is cause for optimism there. However, Lewis has never been a lead guard and doesn't seem to have point guard skills, or at least hasn't shown them at the college level; he's really a shooting guard in a point guard's body, which can work in the A10, but limits his upside. One of Goodwin/Collins will have to be on the floor at all times until proven otherwise.

 

Based on this, I'd guess the minutes distribution winds up something like the following, assuming Ford doesn't go more than 9-deep on the overall rotation:

Goodwin - 32

Perkins - 30

Thatch - 22

Lewis - 20

Collins - 16

Jimerson & Jacobs - scraps

 

That said, Jimerson will absolutely get minutes if he's at all competent in facets of the game beyond shooting, which I think will be necessary for our team to be better than it was last year; if so, he'd take minutes from everyone and maybe push Collins down to like 8mpg, acting exclusively as Goodwin's back-up. Jacobs could also return from injury as a totally new player and jump over Collins and take minutes from Thatch & Lewis. Plus Perkins might need to play some minutes as a forward if we don't land a grad transfer big. So obviously this is very fluid, but I don't think I'm too far off based on what we know right now.

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Are you guys serious? Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see a scenario where Lewis gets under 25 minutes per game. We were absolutely atrocious on the offensive end last year. And that was WITH Isabell and Bess.

Lewis is a proven offensive weapon at this level and has ~75 games under his belt. Freshmen are still freshmen. And Thatch has a long way to go to be an offensive threat.

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On 4/15/2019 at 12:54 PM, bauman said:

I wish I had heard the interview.  Can you clarify what Lewis meant by "happy having one year left and playing this upcoming season."  Was he saying that he would just be playing the 2019-20 season so in effect he would be like a grad transfer and not be taking up a 2020 scholarship?

They were talking about the half year he played last year and the lost second semester.  He was saying that he wouldn't contest that year, but would be happy to have a full Sr year.  He didn't specifically address what he will do if the NCAA does not give him a waiver. My money would be on him playing this year, waver or no waver. The good news in the interview is that he will be in St. Louis in May. We need all of the newbies working with the team as early as possible.

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2 hours ago, brianstl said:

Man, I somehow forgot about Perkins. He will get around 20 mpg at least.  The 1-3 spots are super crowded.  And I still think we will see Goodwin and Collins on the court together at times to give Goodwin a chance to work down low at times.

I agree with your overall conclusion about how crowded the 1-3 spots are. The only opinion I would add is that I think we will see a lot of Hankton/Hargrove/Perkins at the 4 spot. I actually think Hargrove could be an instant contributor at the 4 given his length and rebounding ability. Hankton and Perkins at the 4 also would stretch the floor nicely, if they’re able to rebound and defend that position. This could all change if we get another grad transfer big, which seems not unlikely.

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Jimerson has to be the resident zone breaker with his outside shooting ability. If he and Hankton/Perkins can both provide reliable outside shooting, it will be very difficult to zone us, and both Collins and Goodwin will markedly improve their PG play.

I would slot Jimerson 8-10 mpg to build up his confidence and see if he can handle playing defense. We desperately need outside shooting. That is our overriding need.

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1 hour ago, Zink said:

 

 

At this point, my only major concern with this team is who can spell French for 10-14 minutes each game. I'm not overly worried with how the guard minutes end up panning out, because they will distribute themselves based on performance, but it is fun to speculate about, especially considering our back-court stable is likely set (fingers crossed for no transfers or situations). Goodwin is probably locked in for at least 30, but then it's a total mystery.

Here's what I see as what question(s) each player has to answer to get a share of the remaining ~90 minutes:

 

Perkins: can he defend up to SLU standards?

Thatch: can he shoot/score, play more on the ball?

Collins: can he defend bigger guards, can he shoot?

Lewis: can he defend up to SLU standards, can he distribute the ball as a primary guard?

Jacobs: is he up to this level in terms of speed of thought, overall skill?

Jimerson: can he defend whatsoever (/can Ford find a way to hide him), can he play on the ball at all?

 

So Perkins and Thatch probably have the leg up to join Goodwin as starters, as they have fewer/smaller question marks to go along with more readily apparent high-level skills (scoring and defending, respectively). I don't feel like this is a particularly controversial take. Thatch was actually pretty horrendous offensively last year, so he needs to take a step-up if he wants to play more minutes than he did last year, but I'm cautiously optimistic on that front as he was a very good scorer and an average shooter in high school.

On the flip side, Jimerson and Jacobs have the most to prove and are really total question marks. Jimerson might only be good at shooting and nothing else, which would dramatically limit his playing time. Jacobs so far is totally unproven beyond his highlight reel of dunks and really has a lot of work to do in terms of shooting, ball-handling, and defending. Both have tremendous upside, but who knows where they actually are right now?

That leaves Collins and Lewis as the two guys most likely to get bench minutes to start, in large part because each brings one high-level skill (distributing and shooting, respectively). Ford went on record to say that Collins is an excellent defender, which is hopefully accurate and not just coach-speak. He's obviously undersized, so hopefully he shows some ability to handle post-up attempts by bigger guards and demonstrates better shooting ability than he did as a senior (when he was fresh off shoulder surgery). Lewis is a decidedly below average defender by advanced metrics, although he's about at the level that Isabell was at Drexel, and Tramaine wound up being an average defender in Ford's system so there is cause for optimism there. However, Lewis has never been a lead guard and doesn't seem to have point guard skills, or at least hasn't shown them at the college level; he's really a shooting guard in a point guard's body, which can work in the A10, but limits his upside. One of Goodwin/Collins will have to be on the floor at all times until proven otherwise.

 

Based on this, I'd guess the minutes distribution winds up something like the following, assuming Ford doesn't go more than 9-deep on the overall rotation:

Goodwin - 32

Perkins - 30

Thatch - 22

Lewis - 20

Collins - 16

Jimerson & Jacobs - scraps

 

That said, Jimerson will absolutely get minutes if he's at all competent in facets of the game beyond shooting, which I think will be necessary for our team to be better than it was last year; if so, he'd take minutes from everyone and maybe push Collins down to like 8mpg, acting exclusively as Goodwin's back-up. Jacobs could also return from injury as a totally new player and jump over Collins and take minutes from Thatch & Lewis. Plus Perkins might need to play some minutes as a forward if we don't land a grad transfer big. So obviously this is very fluid, but I don't think I'm too far off based on what we know right now.

No Hargrove?

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4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Only if he wins the starting spot.  Let me pose a scenario where Thatch is the starter and plays some at the 3. And this assumes the most favorable circumstances, where Jacobs doesn't play at all, Hargrove logs no minutes at the 3, and Thatch plays less than 25 min a game.

Goodwin/Collins 25/15

Thatch/Lewis/Jimerson 16/14/10

Perkins/Thatch/Goodwin 25/8/7

This is why Brian and I have been harping on the importance of point guard skills for small guards.  It allows them to stay on the floor.  Otherwise they have to shoot the lights out.

Do you think Ford will stick with his 9 man rotation next year?  Because if he does you have just listed 6 players filling 3 positions with Jacobs,  Hargrove,  Hankton,  Bell,  French along with two more scholarships left to fill.  Seems like Ford is looking for a big that can come in and give quality minutes as a starter with one of the scholarships left over.  

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2 hours ago, Bizziken said:

Are you guys serious? Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see a scenario where Lewis gets under 25 minutes per game. We were absolutely atrocious on the offensive end last year. And that was WITH Isabell and Bess.

Lewis is a proven offensive weapon at this level and has ~75 games under his belt. Freshmen are still freshmen. And Thatch has a long way to go to be an offensive threat.

Agree that Lewis will get heavy minutes, whatever that means.  Also, we have found that HS/Prep School stats don't translate directly to D1.  Thatch shot 40%+ 3FG in HS his last year.  He was 27% last season.  Lewis has a career 36% 3FG shot in D1.  That should translate better than HS/Prep -> D1.

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2 hours ago, Bizziken said:

Are you guys serious? Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't see a scenario where Lewis gets under 25 minutes per game. We were absolutely atrocious on the offensive end last year. And that was WITH Isabell and Bess.

Lewis is a proven offensive weapon at this level and has ~75 games under his belt. Freshmen are still freshmen. And Thatch has a long way to go to be an offensive threat.

I'm just offering my best guess based on how competitive Fred is. He isn't only going to put up lots of shots this summer, he's going to make it his business to shut down the other guards in practice. If Lewis can emerge the clear victor in the battle with Shaft and Scott Highmark Jr., he's got a lot of heart.

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4 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I'm just offering my best guess based on how competitive Fred is. He isn't only going to put up lots of shots this summer, he's going to make it his business to shut down the other guards in practice. If Lewis can emerge the clear victor in the battle with Shaft and Scott Highmark Jr., he's got a lot of heart.

It's going to be fun to track from afar, isn't it. 

Fred needs to work on his ball handling skills too.  I think I counted on one hand the number of times he brought the ball up, even when we were pressed.  

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