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VT over The Bills by 7


The Wiz

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Isabell, Bess, and maybe even Wiley have to hit 3s at a 35% clip. First to not make it a 3 for 2 affair, and second to free up the lane. Obviously we have to play in your face D to take away their 3. Last year the book on VT was how good they were at pushing the ball and scoring damn near a 100 a game. Have they gotten away from that style this year? I recall in the game they played after losing to us they put up close to a hundred the next night. 

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This was a painful loss ....because the win was there for us to take it and we didn't...Hokies played an average game.  Had we done the same we would have won....easily. 

Let's look at 2 stats....TOs and 3Pt shooting....First TOs....In the last 4 games we averaged 8 TOs /gm...a big factor in those 4 winning games....we had that many (8) by the first quarter. In the first few minutes of the 2nd half we had equaled the total of the last 2 games combined..... An F-   in TOs is 16/gm which usually means a loss...we had 19 this game. The TO spread was 8....19-11...that cost us 16 pts in the game....the game  difference.  Now if you will let me digress for a moment  ....Of the Top 25 TO teams (fewest TOs)...here are the ones that made it to  the Dance.....Mich , Va,  Wisc,  Nev,  Gonz,  St. Marys,  N. Dak St,   St. Johns,  Cinn,  Purdue,  Iowa St. and Nova....about half the teams.  And  here is a list of the bottom 25 (the most TOs/game) that made the Dance........none.      TOs aren't the only factor to making the Dance but an important one. Even more so when you have trouble scoring as the Bills proved in the A-10Tourney...4 average Bills games with outstanding TO numbers= 4 wins.....Digression over....now let's move on to 3 pt shooting .....

We missed an extra four 3P  shots...This would have given us not a great night but an average Bills night....Slash tonight was  36.5/ 17.4/ 62.5 ...make 4 more 3s and the slash becomes  Billiken like with a 46.2/ 34.8/ 62.5 = 12 pts more...almost the game difference again....

Bottom line...Take either stat and make it Billiken normal and we probably win the game....Make both stats normal and we win...easily....by around 14 pts. The good news is  we outplayed  them in the 2nd half,  beating them 34-26...so the entire season came down to 1 bad half....well at least the Dance season...I think our finish in the A-10  winning the last 6 out of 7 games to get into the Dance including a grueling tourney run,  bodes well for next season....It seems to me we are fixing some of our shooting problems and we will fix our depth problem (hopefully we will be able to hold onto everyone next year once the season starts)

I will do a post season analysis of the BIlls and the A-10 after the Final 4. Even though our season is over...our  numbers will continue to change as long as there are games to be played..

Zink and SLU_Nick like this
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