The Wiz Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 This will be a little longer than usually but hey...it's The Dance..1st time in 5 years...we need some extra analysis. Well , who thought we would be here ...waiting to play in the 1st round of March Madness....certainly none of the pundits.....We had a 4% chance of winning the tourney and Dancing...and here we are ...My figures show a 16% chance of beating VT....4 times better than getting into The Dance a week ago....So am I another one of those pundits that say it's over? ...nothing to see here....heck no....there is a way to win....it won't be easy....but what we just did wasn't easy.. VT is a ranked team...16th ITN. The report card won't give you much solace either. I ran a search to find a team similar to VT (in difficulty not style of play) ...the answer was Fla St.... When I went to check the numbers....it showed VT's last game was a loss by 2 pts to Fla St in OT.....Again not good but probably accurate......So it's over, right. Not quite. We come into this game still at B-...VT at A+...Usually that grade spread means it's over. BUT....Let's look at another factor ...The trending grade....VT has a grade of is A...nice ...down a little from overall but still very high.....meanwhile...SLU is trending at....wait for it.... grade A. Yes using recent numbers, VT and SLU have been playing at the same level.. Which bring us to the spread variable. The spread in the headline is the most likely winning margin. For betting services it is usually fixed at one number and then you either win or lose. In figuring the probability, it is usually calculated within a range of points... anything within that range is a normal game. In the SB game , I had us winning by 1....the spread variable was a tight zero to 2 pts in the Bills favor...which means the computer was fairly certain of the outcome (even though few of us were). In this game, the spread variable is 2pts to 13 pts in favor of VT...which means there is a lot of uncertainty. A point spread anywhere within that range is a normal win....which means if you were outside that range by say 3 pts it might be a little bit out of the ordinary but not a major upset...although we will celebrate like it is if we win. The uncertainty on the VT side is the return of Robinson a starter who is shooting over 40% from 3. He has been out for 6 weeks with a foot injury. How will he do ? How long will he play? Will he be up to speed? These are questions that not only VT doesn't know but the player himself doesn't know....Thus uncertainty. Then we move to the Bills....who not only transform from a B- team to A against top competition with a 4 game sweep but we do it with players averaging over 37 min/gm for 4 consecutive nights. So can we do it again.? ...if we do, then it becomes a 2 pt spread...and anybody's game. But if we let VT play their game they could win by 13. Lets see what the report card looks like for this game.... ...............................SLU..............................VT................................................SLU.................................VT ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................F+................................B-....................................................A...............................A+....11th ITN FG%.........................D-................................A-....................................................A-...............................A 3P%..........................F..................................A+...8th ITN...................................A-................................B- FT%...........................F-..2nd worst ITN.......A......................................................................................... Reb............................A+...16th ITN..............F+....................................................B+..............................A+...11th ITN Changes from our last game.......UP......Def FG%...Def Reb........DOWN.....PPG...3P% Other grades....SLU...Offensive Reb....A+ (5th ITN)...... Top 100 ITN Stls....Goodwin ...58th Rebs....French.......77th Blks.....French.........60th 3P%...Outlaw...35th (46%)....(think Jimmerson next year) Stls...Alexander -Walker...56th Alexander-Walker leads the team in PPG...Assts...Stls...Blackshear leads the team in Rebs...FG%...Blks...2nd in PPG And now it's time for some BBall trivia.... How many months ago did we whup them...16 months...77-71 on a neutral court... 40/32/64...F-/ F- /F-...Who's slash is this?...Hint ...Not the Bills...If you guessed VT in last year's game...Take a drink Who were the Bills 2 best players in that game?......Bess ..22pts...9 rebs....Goodwin...19 pts...10 rebs ..DD How did NBA prospect Alexander -Walker do?.....4 pts...1-7 FGs How about Blackshear and Robinson?..10 pts Backshear...9 pt Robinson (uninjured)....0-7 FGs...all 9 pts FTs. And finally.... WWN2D2W...Stop A-Walker and Bshear...Hold them to 12 and 11 pts ...everyone else single digits.....Single digit TOs....extend the single digit TO rate to 5 games......43/34/62...this is a new and improved slash...our slash from the A-10 tourney....make all parts....Take down 39 rebs...beat them by at least 5 rebs....out score them in the 2nd half. WCGW....VT has a good shooting night...we miss the slash. Bottom line....If we play like we did in Brooklyn , we have a chance to win...one good thing is we will definitely be more rested. The Battle cry...Remember The Barclay Center Time to cue up Jim Carrey and the .."there's chance" quote video...I will leave that to you. You gotta Bill-eve 6 more to go Zink, BuiltFordBills, Bay Area Billiken and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Everybody beats The Wiz. slubilliken09, joe_davola, LindellWest and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 In 7 of VTech’s 8 losses, they made 10 or less threes. If we can hold them to less than 10 threes we have a chance NextYearBill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said: In 7 of VTech’s 8 losses, they made 10 or less threes. If we can hold them to less than 10 threes we have a chance Which means if we hold them to their average of 24/ gm 3P Att they won't make 10 3Ps at 39.4% shooting average. Last year they took 19 3P shots against us and only made 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Bump for Basketball Discussion. One question I had during the weekend was how much healthier Bess seemed. Anyone have insight on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubilliken09 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 If we play like we did against Davidson, I feel extremely confident about our chances against virtually anybody. All weekend long, the defense figured it out. Sometimes later than others, but the number of shot clock violations we were forcing was telling. No easy buckets. I'm juiced for this weekend. Billikens by 10 Friday. Billnation08 and rgbilliken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Prefer to play a heavy guard play team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, SluSignGuy said: Bump for Basketball Discussion. One question I had during the weekend was how much healthier Bess seemed. Anyone have insight on this? I have no insight but he looked way more like his usual self. He was actually going to the rim, which he hasn't done in several weeks. He wasn't settling for 24-footers. He wasn't short on every shot. He was staying in front of guys better. Part of me worries that he's this team's version of Pheidippides - that he's playing through the pain and maxing out his physical capabilities for this run, and that he'll just collapse at the end. He'll be a legend but he will have paid the price. Okay, maybe he won't keel over after our last game, but I sure hope he's not setting himself back physically in a way that will be detrimental to his pro career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Pistol said: Part of me worries that he's this team's version of Pheidippides - that he's playing through the pain and maxing out his physical capabilities for this run, and that he'll just collapse at the end. He'll be a legend but he will have paid the price. Okay, maybe he won't keel over after our last game, but I sure hope he's not setting himself back physically in a way that will be detrimental to his pro career. Not to be a downer, but I kind of feel like this happened to Jett and maybe Evans. Didn't they both have some injuries / surgeries that kept them from playing their 1st year after SLU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 minute ago, RUBillsFan said: Not to be a downer, but I kind of feel like this happened to Jett and maybe Evans. Didn't they both have some injuries / surgeries that kept them from playing their 1st year after SLU? Jett suffered a knee injury after his senior year. He was going to workout for some NBA tams but never did. Then he played with Conklin in The Basketball Tournament and Conklin got him to talk to his NBL team, the Townsville Crocodiles. He's been down there ever since. Whether or not the injury could be attributed to Jett's usage his senior year, I'm not sure. I'd believe it, though. He absolutely put the team on his back that season. Even in that 19-game winning streak, we weren't winning by much; games were ending in our favor with Jett making big plays. We were 25-2 and then lost 5 of our last 7. He and the rest of them ran out of gas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Pistol said: I have no insight but he looked way more like his usual self. He was actually going to the rim, which he hasn't done in several weeks. He wasn't settling for 24-footers. He wasn't short on every shot. He was staying in front of guys better. Part of me worries that he's this team's version of Pheidippides - that he's playing through the pain and maxing out his physical capabilities for this run, and that he'll just collapse at the end. He'll be a legend but he will have paid the price. Okay, maybe he won't keel over after our last game, but I sure hope he's not setting himself back physically in a way that will be detrimental to his pro career. I think the fourth game in four days impacted Bess more than anyone else on the team. Probably because he has played more minutes (almost 2 and a half more games) than anyone else on the team. He didn't look hurt like he did at other points, but he really looked like he had dead legs at several points against the Bonnies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheltiedave Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Game days, even though at the max intensity, are shorter than practices. Ford is old school and really drives his players hard in practice, probably about two hours. you compare the two, and there is a lot more energy spent in many practices. Games are more mentally taxing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 On 3/19/2019 at 1:58 AM, Bay Area Billiken said: I find it humorous that a guy of Bay Area's, "veteran nature" is posting a video of a song by Phantom Planet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 32 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: I find it humorous that a guy of Bay Area's, "veteran nature" is posting a video of a song by Phantom Planet. LOL! BAB figured this was more in vogue and hip than another potential option, Mitch Miller's California Here I Come ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Just now, Bay Area Billiken said: BAB figured this was more in vogue than Mitch Miller's California Here I Come ... I thought you’d be more of a Hollywood Undead fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 You want hip? Box and Won likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 On 3/18/2019 at 11:42 PM, BillsBeliever!!! said: In 7 of VTech’s 8 losses, they made 10 or less threes. If we can hold them to less than 10 threes we have a chance In looking into the numbers, it seems like the keys are Virginia Tech not shooting the lights out (so much of their offense is dependent on makings 3s) and us continuing to do work on the offensive glass kind of stealing points so to say (Virginia Tech is not a strong rebounding team). With Robinson missing so much time, I think there is enough that gives me hope that we can pull the upset (at least beat the spread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said: I find it humorous that a guy of Bay Area's, "veteran nature" is posting a video of a song by Phantom Planet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Has anyone gone to the VT message board to keep pumping the rumors about Buzz Williams and Texas A&M? We need this distraction to become overwhelming for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Pistol said: Has anyone gone to the VT message board to keep pumping the rumors about Buzz Williams and Texas A&M? We need this distraction to become overwhelming for them. yes Need this to really heat up in the next 30 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Pistol said: Has anyone gone to the VT message board to keep pumping the rumors about Buzz Williams and Texas A&M? We need this distraction to become overwhelming for them. The media is doing this for us already. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/aggies/article/Why-Buzz-Williams-remains-a-favorite-at-Texas-A-M-13701294.php https://dailycaller.com/2019/03/16/buzz-williams-texas-am-virginia-tech/ https://www.chron.com/sports/aggies/article/Texas-A-M-fires-Billy-Kennedy-eyes-Buzz-Williams-13692542.php and even the good ole Post Dispatch https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/tipsheet-texas-a-m-on-hold-as-buzz-williams-prepares/article_c0248644-6830-5fd1-b129-66793be7a64f.html Pistol likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 I actually think we win any game that is close. My fear that VT has a 2013 Oregon game against us and shoots 60% from 3 and we lose handily. But if it's a 7 point game, we will be the one winning BigMouthBilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, wgstl said: yes Need this to really heat up in the next 30 hours Do you have a link to their message board? Id like to read what they are saying about the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, dlarry said: Do you have a link to their message board? Id like to read what they are saying about the game. They actually have a few, so just google Virginia tech message board and any of the first few links should work dlarry likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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