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Grad Transfers - 2019

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On 4/5/2019 at 8:51 AM, billikenfan05 said:

ie this coming school year. meaning it would most definitely affect those that have committed to schools for the upcoming season.

Wiz, at what % is one officially a “bucket getter?” 

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58 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Wiz, at what % is one officially a “bucket getter?” 

If you have made 100 FGs...and have shot at least 46% (C+) you qualify as a "bucket getter"....If you shoot 50.3% (A+)....you qualify as a "gold bucket getter"

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50 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

If you have made 100 FGs...and have shot at least 46% (C+) you qualify as a "bucket getter"....If you shoot 50.3% (A+)....you qualify as a "gold bucket getter"

Wiz, your model skews in favor of bigs. There’s probably less than 10 guards in the whole country that shoot 50% from the field 

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

If you have made 100 FGs...and have shot at least 46% (C+) you qualify as a "bucket getter"....If you shoot 50.3% (A+)....you qualify as a "gold bucket getter"

According to your model, the following guys don't get buckets:

Markus Howard
Carsen Edwards
Myles Powell
Shamorie Ponds
Charlie Brown
Ky Bowman
Jarron Cumberland

Larry Hughes and Jason Tatum didn't get buckets their one year in college either.

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Wiz, I have to agree with 3star:  For teams average shooting percentages are meaningful, but for individuals it should take position into account.

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4 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

According to your model, the following guys don't get buckets:

Markus Howard
Carsen Edwards
Myles Powell
Shamorie Ponds
Charlie Brown
Ky Bowman
Jarron Cumberland

Larry Hughes and Jason Tatum didn't get buckets their one year in college either.

Wiz, thanks for running the numbers on certified bucket getters. These calculations validate what Coach 314 said about Javonte Perkins from SWIC JUCO. He  is indeed a bucket getter, shooting 53 percent overall....although after finishing 3rd nationally in scoring, 26 points per game, he was ROBBED in not being listed among the top 50 players named as JUCO All Americans. How one can finish third in scoring and not be listed among the top 50 players is beyond me. 

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2 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, I have to agree with 3star:  For teams average shooting percentages are meaningful, but for individuals it should take position into account.

Unfortunately , my stats sources don't break it down by position. And while the FG% is biased against guards, it cuts both ways...as the overall rating( the cumulative slash number) is biased against non guards since most can't get an overall rating because of low 3 Pt numbers. Still , the overall rating tends to work .  In combination with the individual slash ....together they provide important and valuable information.

Let's look at 3 star's list of players...I have used career numbers so they all have large enough sample sizes....Most qualify as bucket getters ( includes FTs) except Cumberland and Hughes both of whom would have made it with better FT shooting.

Markus Howard...45/43/90 =178....A+

Carsen Edwards....41/37/ 82-160....B

Myles Powell.........43/36/82-161.....B   

Shamorie Ponds....44/33/84=161....B

Charlie Brown.........41/37/ 84=162...B+.

Ky Bowman............43/39 /76=158...B-

Jarron Cumberland..42/36/72=150..D

Larry Hughes.............42/29/69=140..F-

Jason Tatum.............45/34/85=164...A-

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52 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Wiz, thanks for running the numbers on certified bucket getters. These calculations validate what Coach 314 said about Javonte Perkins from SWIC JUCO. He  is indeed a bucket getter, shooting 53 percent overall....although after finishing 3rd nationally in scoring, 26 points per game, he was ROBBED in not being listed among the top 50 players named as JUCO All Americans. How one can finish third in scoring and not be listed among the top 50 players is beyond me. 

Here are his full season numbers from last year, the most recent I have......if you have more current numbers....raw #s not %s for this year , I would be happy to run them.

61/ 43/ 81=185....A+......A Majerus 180 player

How could he have been robbed of being a Top 50 player...don't know...But Majerus wouldn't have cared and it seems Ford doesn't either.   

A quality get.

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8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Unfortunately , my stats sources don't break it down by position. And while the FG% is biased against guards, it cuts both ways...as the overall rating( the cumulative slash number) is biased against non guards since most can't get an overall rating because of low 3 Pt numbers. Still , the overall rating tends to work .  In combination with the individual slash ....together they provide important and valuable information.

Let's look at 3 star's list of players...I have used career numbers so they all have large enough sample sizes....Most qualify as bucket getters ( includes FTs) except Cumberland and Hughes both of whom would have made it with better FT shooting.

Markus Howard...45/43/90 =178....A+

Carsen Edwards....41/37/ 82-160....B

Myles Powell.........43/36/82-161.....B   

Shamorie Ponds....44/33/84=161....B

Charlie Brown.........41/37/ 84=162...B+.

Ky Bowman............43/39 /76=158...B-

Jarron Cumberland..42/36/72=150..D

Larry Hughes.............42/29/69=140..F-

Jason Tatum.............45/34/85=164...A-

Wiz, you keep changing the criteria based on what players we're talking about.  Which is all some of us are trying to point out to you. You can't say 46% is the cut off point for bucket getters because none of these guys, who are obviously bucket getters, shoot 46%.  And not even the very best bucket getters on this list get close to your gold status of 50%.

So you're forced to flip to the 170 model, not just for three point specialists, but for all guards.  And you have to put your thumb on the free throw shooting scale to get  it to work out most of the time. Assigning an A+ to an 82% free throw shooter is generous, to say the least.

Don't get it twisted -- we still love your statistical models.  But when you're this far off from reality, you're going to get challenged.

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22 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Wiz, you keep changing the criteria based on what players we're talking about.  Which is all some of us our trying to point out to you. You can't say 46% is the cut off point for bucket getters because none of these guys, who are obviously bucket getters, shoot 46%.  And not even the very best bucket getters on this list get close to your gold status of 50%.

So you're forced to flip to the 170 model, not just for three point specialists, but for all guards.  And even you have to put your thumb on the free throw shooting scale to get  it to work out most of the time. Assigning an A+ to an 82% free throw shooter is generous, to say the least.

Don't get it twisted -- we still love your statistical models.  But when you're this far off from reality, you're going to get challenged.

All I am saying is that there is no model that covers everything.....I personally like the overall model...which is the Combo of the whole slash line....156 is above average(C+)....171 A+...180 Majerus....However it is not fair to non guards ....so I think it is good to use the FG% for them...46% is above average (C+)....50.3% A+.

In using the info,  I personally would compare guards on the overall grade....and front court players using the FG%..   Again both are biased in their own ways which is fine as long as you understand what they mean and how to use the info...... Comparing like players on the appropriate data charts.

Sorry, I didn't mean to make it more confusing than it is...hope that clears things up a bit.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Here are his full season numbers from last year, the most recent I have......if you have more current numbers....raw #s not %s for this year , I would be happy to run them.

61/ 43/ 81=185....A+......A Majerus 180 player

How could he have been robbed of being a Top 50 player...don't know...But Majerus wouldn't have cared and it seems Ford doesn't either.   

A quality get.

Wiz, his final stats this season were lower,53/36/79...I think he still qualifies as a bucket getter...he had better numbers the previous season but faced double team D more this year.

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16 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

What thread was mike Lewis mentioned? Can’t find it 

It’s this one, starting on page 14.

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1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said:

Wiz, his final stats this season were lower,53/36/79...I think he still qualifies as a bucket getter...he had better numbers the previous season but faced double team D more this year.

Down a little but still a 168... good for an A

Do you have the raw stats?....FGM-FGA...3PM-3PM ...FTM-FTA....Then I could come up with some 2 year stats and grades....large sample size would be very predictive. 

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1 hour ago, VeniceMenace said:

Thanks

Here are the 2 yr totals.....57/ 62/ 38/ 80  = 175   (2Pt  excluded from slash total)

...........................................A+ / A+/ B+/A+= A+ overall  grade

Shot attempts.....823/ 648/ 175/ 340....Even though he has only played 2 years at JUCO, these numbers are equivalent to many average  4 year players...While past numbers are no guarantee of future success...This bodes well for his future.

Also the numbers are more meaningful as he is playing better competition than most HS kids.....Furthermore, his 3s are real....i.e. from college distance as opposed to HS range. 

Time to get out the towels.....

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Wiz, I really appreciate all the analytical work you do. But wouldn’t it be easier to use something like effective field goal % or offensive rating to judge a players bucket getting ability? Raw field goal numbers feel a little outdated given all the data we have available 

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31 minutes ago, NH said:

Wiz, I really appreciate all the analytical work you do. But wouldn’t it be easier to use something like effective field goal % or offensive rating to judge a players bucket getting ability? Raw field goal numbers feel a little outdated given all the data we have available 

You are right ....Raw data is out dated...but that doesn't mean it isn't still useful....My thing is to convert data into grades...I think it is easier to understand ....not everybody is a numbers person....The slash line is readily available and widely used....Even adding the 2P%  seems strange at times but I put it in when I think it contributes some less than visible info.  

I am trying to keep it simple...Look at the Perkins data posted in the VeniceMenace link above....24 stats...and they don't even list eFG%.  ..If you go to the sports reference page,,,,they have 24 stats per section and there are 10 sections....240 variables....overall totals..per game totals...per 40 min . ...per conf games...per 100 possessions... advanced metrics....and yes , here is where eFG% is buried.

Look what has happened in this thread...just talking about the basic concept of slash line vs FG%...and built in bias.....many posts  spread over a  number of pages....can you imagine adding more variables. ...hundreds of posts...dozens of pages.  I don't mind discussing built in bias on certain stats or explaining how or what or why I do certain things with numbers....  I just don't want to do it everyday. If it was just you and me , we would be discussing eFG%,  Points Produced, Offensive win shares and Defensive box plus /minus.  But if we did discuss all these items ,  I think it would be just you and me on the board.

Bottom line....I am going to keep to the basics and try to simplify ... keeping it easy and concise....as they say in football  concentrate on the blocking and tackling.  NH,  I do appreciate the suggestion. 

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Wiz and NH let's not lose sight that  raw data is real data, ie measured directly. Every other measurement you can conceive of is derived from the raw data available. For example this is very evident in the market, there are only 5 points of data available (high, low, open, close, volume) from which literally thousands of data points are developed to produce indicators (as in averages, RSI, pair deviation or standard deviation, etc...). Whenever a point of raw data is subject to any kind of mathematical manipulation, there are errors introduced in the results. The errors can be tiny, particularly if the number of mathematical processing steps is small, or fairly large and significant, when the results are obtained by manipulating other derived (from primary data) data.

This is true for any derived data that is developed from primary data or from prior manipulated data (non primary).

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Camron Justice, a guard from IUPUI hit the grad transfer market. Similar profile to TI - started at P5 school, went to a lower level and excelled, now on to his third school. Averaged 18 ppg, excellent 3-point and free throw percentages. Started his career at Vandy... he's from the great state of Kentucky.

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24 minutes ago, ACE said:

Camron Justice, a guard from IUPUI hit the grad transfer market. Similar profile to TI - started at P5 school, went to a lower level and excelled, now on to his third school. Averaged 18 ppg, excellent 3-point and free throw percentages. Started his career at Vandy... he's from the great state of Kentucky.

He is from Knox County KY, eastern half of the state, but that likely is the only item that would tie him into Ford.  He didn't do anything at Vandy, but he was solid for the Jaguars.  35% Arc, and 85% FT. 

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MO State lands Anthony Bonner as a grad transfer, huh? 

 

 

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The Hauser brothers, two Marquette starters are transferring.

 

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33 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The Hauser brothers, two Marquette starters are transferring.

 

Wow.  And this is just after Howard says he is returning.  Wonder what's up.  Sam has been there 3 years, so perhaps he is GT?  The Marquette board is aflame and blaming Wojo.

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32 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The Hauser brothers, two Marquette starters are transferring.

 

Interesting. What the hell happened there?

EDIT: Quick Twitter search speculates they are headed to Virginia. 

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