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The Bills over Duq by 7


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1 down ...2 to go...to tie down 4th.....

Step 2 is to beat Duq...We continue to be ranked as a B-  team. However with our win over GM we are trending at B.....Duq comes in with  C+ ...C+.  A win here and we move ahead of the Dukes.

The variable spread is 5 to 8 pts in favor of the Bills....The narrow spread indicates a higher confidence of hitting  in the spread area.

Lets see what report card looks like for this game....

...............................SLU..............................Duq.............................................SLU...................................Duq

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................C...................................................A..................................C

FG%..........................F.................................D-....................................................A-...............................C

3P%..........................F-..................................D-....................................................A...............................B-

FT%...........................F-..2nd worst ITN.......C-.........................................................................................

Reb............................A................................C....................................................B...................................F

Changes from our last game.......Down...FG% ...F+ to F...3P% ...F to F-.....Defense Reb....B+ to B.........Up...Def FG%...B+ to A-

Other grades....SLU...Offensive Reb....A+ (8th ITN).......

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...38th

Rebs....French.......71st 

Blks.....French.........75th

Assts....Carry..........26th

Stls...Carry...12th

Blks... M Hughes...19th

Injuries
 
Player   Status/Updated Notes
Sincere Carry G Ques Wed - Knee - 3/2/19 Carry was held out of the previous two games while recovering from surgery to correct a knee injury and it has yet to be determined if he will return Wednesday against Saint Louis.
Austin Rotroff F out for season - Knee - 1/26/19 Rotroff has a tear in his ACL and will miss the remainder of the 2018-19 season.
Elliott Welmer                               F     out for season - Foot - 2/3/19                         Welmer is sidelined with a left foot fracture and will likely miss the rest of the season.
       
     

 

If Carry doesn't play it could have an impact on the game especially in SLU TOs and Duq scoring.

Welmer may make a token appearance in this game.

WWN2D2W........Duq has  a few scorers.... Allow 1 to score 12pts...everyone else held to single digits....Williams most likely to be top scorer.   Duq forces TOs ( A rated)... Important to protect the ball...no more than 12 TOs....42/31/61....Dominate the boards, we need to out rebound them by 5

WCGW....TOs....if we go into the upper teens ...we could lose

Bottom line....Duq is not as good as GM....Yet they are good enough to beat us if we don't have a good game. This should be close hard fought game as both teams scramble to make 4th.. If we play like we did against GM ( 1st 35 min) we will win this game.

 

     

 

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Personnel:  Biggest change from first matchup is the injury to Sincere Carry.  Torn meniscus.  Artho-surgery two games ago.  Even if he goes, he will likely be limited in mobility and conditioning.  Michael Hughes remains the beast in the middle and on the roster.  Averaging about 11 ppg but I am expecting foul trouble at our place.  He plays on emotional overdrive at times.  Last game, we made a star of Marcus Weathers.  Weathers is very much a garbage player like Trey Landers at Dayton.  Always seems to be in the right spot at the right time.  Frankie Hughes can be like the old Microwave in Detroit .... Vinny Johnson.  He makes one trey and he's liable to go off for seven or eight.  Dunn-Martin is small and has the shot-put shot.  But tends to make it past NBA range given the space.  I'd dare him to drive more than shoot from distance.  A Jacob Gilyard clone.  

The big guy is Eric Williams Jr.  Smooth inside and out.  As Wiz said, if one goes off that enough.  Stop the rest.  The rest of the bench is nothing to write home about but we can't let Bizeau or anyone else "find" themselves.  No more Tydus Vehoevens.

Duquesne has been down very big many times this year.  KenPom had they at six games where there win possibility was below 10%.  Yet they came back to win all six.  Inthe second half, it seems they essentially chuck the defense and the ball ----- launching three after three as they run to get back in the game.  All they seem to say is 'we're gonna score, can you stay with us?'  This one won't be over until its over.  Would be nice to have all nine guys available and ready.

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https://public.tableau.com/profile/thebackpassrule#!/vizhome/Atlantic10UsageRatePointsperPossession/UsagePointsperPoss

Okay, it looks like I am high-jacking Wiz' thread, but this link presents an interesting view of A10 points per possession and usage rate.  You have to hover over the symbol to find out the player. Data is through Feb 28.  Bess has our highest points per possession at 1.095 and Isabell has the highest usage rate of 23.10%. 

Sorry Wiz.  I didn't want to start a thread for this data link.

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6 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/thebackpassrule#!/vizhome/Atlantic10UsageRatePointsperPossession/UsagePointsperPoss

Okay, it looks like I am high-jacking Wiz' thread, but this link presents an interesting view of A10 points per possession and usage rate.  You have to hover over the symbol to find out the player. Data is through Feb 28.  Bess has our highest points per possession at 1.095 and Isabell has the highest usage rate of 23.10%. 

Sorry Wiz.  I didn't want to start a thread for this data link.

Can you tell this MBM what 'usage rate' is?

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1 hour ago, White Pelican said:

Can you tell this MBM what 'usage rate' is?

Usage rate, is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

The formula is in this link.  https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/usage-rate/

I have no idea who has the time to input all the data.  Maybe the Wiz can weigh in.

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42 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Usage rate, is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

The formula is in this link.  https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/usage-rate/

I have no idea who has the time to input all the data.  Maybe the Wiz can weigh in.

Thank you. I'm still not sure exactly what it's measuring. I mean I get that it's an efficiency rating but how they got there is some kind of wizardry I guess. Like WAR in baseball.

I looked at the formula. Good Lord.

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White pelican, math formulas used to characterize the way players play, their effectiveness, etc... can be judged in the following way: "Looks like a crap, smells like crap, what is it?" If you do not understand the formula place it in the circular file for trash and assorted BS. The stardom potential of anyone or any team cannot be judged by complex math formulas. Whoever created this analytical process is making money by selling it to whoever will buy it. This is nothing but a way to put pins in the 4 quarters of a cartesian chart using a standardized procedural approach  to make a visually attractive display. The world is full of high level dunces who think anything that is algorithmic or mathematical or AI based is capable of magically predicting the future. All these formulas do is to make money for whoever is selling them. I am sure that some NBA teams buy them and probably use them. Why? Because someone high up believes the line they are fed by the seller and wants to offer visually attractive charts that say nothing new. Of course the top dogs will go around boasting about their analytical capabilities and superior evaluations. Obviously, the A10 uses type of analytical approach. All the graphic provided proves is that we (SLU) are not a good offensive or scoring team. This should be obvious by now to even the most mentally impaired MBM in this board. Do not waste time over it.

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1 hour ago, White Pelican said:

Thank you. I'm still not sure exactly what it's measuring. I mean I get that it's an efficiency rating but how they got there is some kind of wizardry I guess. Like WAR in baseball.

I looked at the formula. Good Lord.

It is the percentage of a team’s offensive possessions that end with that player either making a basket, missing a shot, going to the free throw line or turning it over.

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Last year's Senior Night saw Rashad Anthony start the game.  So I assume Ford will start Wiley tonight, and if he is cleared to play, Welmer.  Last year St. Bonaventure ruined SNight handing us a 64-56 L. With a Top Four finish riding partially on this game, I wonder if Ford will change his tactic of starting all his seniors.

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2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Last year's Senior Night saw Rashad Anthony start the game.  So I assume Ford will start Wiley tonight, and if he is cleared to play, Welmer.  Last year St. Bonaventure ruined SNight handing us a 64-56 L. With a Top Four finish riding partially on this game, I wonder if Ford will change his tactic of starting all his seniors.

Interesting note though is that this game is incredibly important to that first round bye. I don’t know if you can justify changing your lineup for the sake of senior night 

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1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

Interesting note though is that this game is incredibly important to that first round bye. I don’t know if you can justify changing your lineup for the sake of senior night 

Yes he will start the seniors.  They may not stay in long.

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1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

Interesting note though is that this game is incredibly important to that first round bye. I don’t know if you can justify changing your lineup for the sake of senior night 

I get it, but its not like Wiley is some bum, you could still give him the start and expect him to help the team.  I dont tho expect him to play a ton just because its senior night. 

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1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

Interesting note though is that this game is incredibly important to that first round bye. I don’t know if you can justify changing your lineup for the sake of senior night 

I remember last year we were battling for the 4th seed (we finished 6th due to that crazy tiebreaker) yet he still started the seniors.

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Last year's Senior Night saw Rashad Anthony start the game.  So I assume Ford will start Wiley tonight, and if he is cleared to play, Welmer.  Last year St. Bonaventure ruined SNight handing us a 64-56 L. With a Top Four finish riding partially on this game, I wonder if Ford will change his tactic of starting all his seniors.

My guess is that unless the game is on the line Welmer will be put in for the last 30 seconds. 

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57 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

If Welmer is graduating he will start the game.

We will see but I don't think so. I think they are afraid he could hurt himself. I don't know what he's done in practice but I see him walking on the floor and holding the ball for the last 20 seconds when were up by 24. 

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Games generally start in a probing mode for both teams, not in full action and with full speed. I think Welmer might be safer in the first couple of minutes than at the end, particularly if it is a contested game's end. If he manages to score in that time much the better.

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"WWN2D2W........Duq has  a few scorers.... Allow 1 to score 12pts...everyone else held to single digits....Williams most likely to be top scorer.   Duq forces TOs ( A rated)... Important to protect the ball...no more than 12 TOs....42/31/61....Dominate the boards, we need to out rebound them by 5"..............from the original post above....

A great and important win. You could say this was Williams against Isabell....Tip o' the cap to Isabell who had a season high 39 pts....Now in the quote above ...the idea was to hold the top player to 12 pts...probably Williams and everyone else to single digits...Williams scoring 40 pts would have usually spelled disaster however Isabell  canceled him out....Carry then scores 13 pts...Canceled out by Bess  who also has 13 pts.... M Hughes has 6 pts...canceled out by French who has 6pts.....their next 3 players score  5,  4, and 3 pts...while Goodwin , Thatch and Foreman score 7, 8, and 9 pts respectively...We had more firepower  than Duq.

On the slash...we did what we were supposed to do...41.2% / 35% / 56.4%...so we had an extra 3 and missed 2 FTs....net gain on the slash 1 pt....very close.   Oxymoron time ...again.....We win on FTs...How can I say that when we shoot under 60%....As I did in another thread ...let me paraphrase an old sales motto....how do we keep our prices so low...we do it on volume....How do we win on FTs...we do it on volume...We made 22 FTs ...they made 9....13pt difference....Here is a rare stat...we made more FTs than they attempted....They attempted 15 FTs..."When you make more than  they take , you usually win"...Earl Austin Jr.

Dominate the boards  by at least 5...we beat them by 12 boards almost all on the offensive side (margin was 13)...Total rebs an amazing 50 ...with an equally amazing 24 Off reb..we were 8th ITN coming into this game ...we should move up...

12 TOs...we had 13 ...which was right on target especially against a team that forces TOs....but just as important they had 17 TOs ...TO spread diff of 4 ...good for 8pt +1pt  on the slash = 9pts.....just about the margin of victory.

Bottom line ...a great team effort....and doing what I have said most of the year...That even if we play our usual  crappy offense we can win as long as we rebound and don't make mistakes (TOs)...BTW , in the St. B spread thread , you will see our offensive grades improve....They are still offensive, but any improvement is a good thing.  And finally, this win sets us up for a 4th place finish.   No help from other teams...no tie breakers...just beat the Bonnies and we get the double bye.

Go Bills.

BTW...very nice presentations on Senior night...a good send off for the Bills.

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