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Madness Comes to the A10


Taj79

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Two games on tap tonight ... Rhode Island at the Joey (-1.5) and VCU (-5)at Mason. Bi gone for us is obviously VCU/Mason.

As I note din a previous statement, Fresh Kimble is back for the Joeys.  A joeys win and they are then tied overall with the Rams.  How that plays out in overall standings won't really be known until Saturday is done and said with.  Right now, the Bills are seventh meaning we'd get the 10th seed in Brooklyn.  I believe that would be the Joeys, given their head-to-head win over tied Richmond.  A win by the Joeys give them seven wins -- same as Rhode Island and same as La Salle.  La Salle will get to 8 wins .. they will likely beat Fordham to close out.  Rhode Island won at Dayton so who knows.

Mason has to lose tonight because they should close out with a win at Geedubya come Saturday.  I have found the game on my local Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, the group that does the local orioles and Nationals contests.  You know where I'll be.

 

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Another shoe dropped into its proper place last night as VCU totally obliterated Mason 71 to 36.  I mean ... yikes!  Mason was up 16 to 9 with just over 5 minutes to play in the first half of a very sloppy game.  Turnovers.  Bricks.  Offensive fouls.  Just horrendous.  VCU then closed on a 19 to 5 run which included 5 points in 21 seconds and Mason never got up off the canvas.  With five minutes gone and VCU now up 12, Otis Livingstone turned an ankle in the back court, gave the ball to PJ Byrd, who scored the layup, and then Otis was carted from the game.  He did reappear very late for a curtain call (he was Mason's only playing senior on Senior Night) but ended a dismal team performance with a dismal individual performance of two points.  Otis. injury took so much out of the Mason team -- and that was pitiful.  Hey, guys get hurt, but I have never seen a team roll over and die like Mason did.  They finished the last 15 minutes without Otis scoring 12 points or so.  I don't know, maybe Geedubya can score an upset Saturday.  Livingstone's condition and status for that game is unknown right now.

Up in Philly, the Joey's choked down the stretch and succumbed in overtime to Rhode island and fats Russell.  Russell, who is from Philly, torched the Joeys for 41 points including 7-of-13 from three while shooting 12 of 24 overall.  If that wasn't enough, Jeff Dowtin went 10 of 17 from the field and added 23 points.  Between them, the put up 41 of Rhodey's 68 shots.

VCU has now clinched outright the regular season A10 title and secures the #1 seed in Brooklyn.  Rhode Island moves to a game and a half behind us  meaning a loss tonight to Duquesne could complicate things looking downward.  If Richmond (+1) can win at Umass tonight, the Joeys drop into the PIG bracket for the time being.

The biggest one besides us tonight is of course the Bunnies at Davidson (-6).  The current spread suggests a real Davidson win.  Dayton (-11.5) hosts La Salle.  We are -7.5 against Duquesne.  In the dog of the night, Fordham (-4) hosts Geedubya.  As of right now, three of the four PIG participants are locked in and VCU has the #1. 

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In order to get to fourth, we need to win 2 to get to 11 and 7.  We need the Bunnies to lose out also means 11 and 7.  We beat the Dukes and they have seven losses.  Mason is already there.  Everybody goes 11 and 7 and the first tiebreaker is head-to-head.  In that four-way tie, and we win out, we would be 3 and 1 and #4.  Biggest game of the year tonight are the Bunnies and Davidson.

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

In order to get to fourth, we need to win 2 to get to 11 and 7.  We need the Bunnies to lose out also means 

well, winning both of ours already takes care of half of the latter.  Plus the only other game bonnies have is Davidson. Pretty much saying we just need to win both.

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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

In order to get to fourth, we need to win 2 to get to 11 and 7.  We need the Bunnies to lose out also means 11 and 7.  We beat the Dukes and they have seven losses.  Mason is already there.  Everybody goes 11 and 7 and the first tiebreaker is head-to-head.  In that four-way tie, and we win out, we would be 3 and 1 and #4.  Biggest game of the year tonight are the Bunnies and Davidson.

For those that like a little math, here are the probabilities of getting the 3 results that we need, per kenpom.com:

SLU over Duq: 71%

SLU over St. Bon: 37%

Davidson over St. Bon: 72% 

The combined probability of all three happening is 19%.

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1 minute ago, kshoe said:

For those that like a little math, here are the probabilities of getting the 3 results that we need, per kenpom.com:

SLU over Duq: 71%

SLU over St. Bon: 37%

Davidson over St. Bon: 72% 

The combined probability of all three happening is 19%.

and by 8 tonight I expect those odds to be around 60%

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1 hour ago, kshoe said:

For those that like a little math, here are the probabilities of getting the 3 results that we need, per kenpom.com:

SLU over Duq: 71%

SLU over St. Bon: 37%

Davidson over St. Bon: 72% 

The combined probability of all three happening is 19%.

To get the 3 seed we need Dayton to lose v LaSalle and @Duquense. 

Would result in a 5 way tie and we’d have the tiebreaker

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