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A-10...Down the Stretch


The Wiz

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Duquesne's Sincere Carry had his knee scoped Tuesday and his return is uncertain.  That could mean big trouble for Duquesne, (which is what we need). 

George Mason and St. Bonaventure are tied for 4th, Duquesne slips to 6th.  We are alone in 7th, two games back of Mason and St. Bonnie and one game up on LaSalle. 

Our Bills beating George Mason this weekend is a must.  St. Bonaventure will be favored at GW.  Can Duquesne regroup at home against UMass?

With the Davidson loss, VCU pretty much wrapped up the title. They are two games up on Davidson and Dayton with three to play.  They are playing to secure an At Large as a fall back, so they won't take the foot off the gas.

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I know some here have given up the fight for 4th....but it's not over yet. It won't be easy and we will need some help....but it is still very doable.

We are chasing 3 teams for the final spot.... first and foremost we need to win the final 3.games......all  3 are against teams we are chasing....GM, Duq  and St. B ....We will be favored in the first 2 and the St. B game will be very close....if that is the deciding game....I would put our money on us .

Assuming we beat Duq...we are chasing 2 teams....GM and St. B

In the 2 other games that GM and St. B play....they both need to lose 1

GM plays......VCU @  GM.....VCU will be favored .... GM  @  GW  ...close game but GM will be favored .................1 loss

St. B plays....St. B  @  GW ..again  a close game but St. B favored.....St. B  @  Dav ...Dav will be favored............... 1 loss 

Note...while GW is a bad team ( D )...it has the largest home field advantage of any team in the A-10 ( over 5 pts )

So there you have it down but not out ....a struggle but a way to win....

It ain't over till it's over...Yogi Berra 

 

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8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I know some here have given up the fight for 4th....but it's not over yet. It won't be easy and we will need some help....but it is still very doable.

We are chasing 3 teams for the final spot.... first and foremost we need to win the final 3.games......all  3 are against teams we are chasing....GM, Duq  and St. B ....We will be favored in the first 2 and the St. B game will be very close....if that is the deciding game....I would put our money on us .

Assuming we beat Duq...we are chasing 2 teams....GM and St. B

In the 2 other games that GM and St. B play....they both need to lose 1

GM plays......VCU @  GM.....VCU will be favored .... GM  @  GW  ...close game but GM will be favored .................1 loss

St. B plays....St. B  @  GW ..again  a close game but St. B favored.....St. B  @  Dav ...Dav will be favored............... 1 loss 

Note...while GW is a bad team ( D )...it has the largest home field advantage of any team in the A-10 ( over 5 pts )

So there you have it down but not out ....a struggle but a way to win....

It ain't over till it's over...Yogi Berra 

 

I did feel like it is over for the 4 spot...but Wiz does make it sound very doable.  Win all 3 and have GM and St B each lose one.  Lets go Bills.  

 

 

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Everything happened pretty much the way it was supposed to happen this past weekend.

Looking forward ....first and foremost ...we need to beat Duq....which we should...see Duq spread thread.

The 2 other important games this week will be 

Tues...VCU @ GM....hopefully GM will be down after their loss to us. I am showing VCU  over GM by 7 with a variable spread of 5 to 10 pts in favor of VCU. The VCU grades are A-  & A...GM grades C+ & C+....First grade is overall ...2nd grade is trending.

Which brings us to Wed....While we are playing....St. B will be at Dav....This will be a doozie. ....We need Dav to win....I am showing Dav over St. B by a shaky 1 pt .  What's going on here?   Dav is the better team playing at home....Here are what the grades look like....Dav...B+ & C+......St. Bon...B-  &  A-. What this means is Dav is the better team but has been playing bad lately....meanwhile, St. B has been playing great....here is what the variable spread looks like....All the way from Dav by 8  to  St. B by 6. ....Go Wildcats.

 

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Seemingly against all odds, the Billikens still have a fighting chance to finish 4th and avoid playing Thursday in Brooklyn.
 
Here is the perfect storm scenario:
 
VCU wins at George Mason Tuesday.
SLU wins at home over Duquesne Wednesday.
St. Bona loses at Davidson Wednesday.
SLU wins at St. Bona on Saturday.  This is the biggest question mark in the whole perfect storm scenario.
Dayton wins at Duquesne Saturday night.
 
All of this could actually happen.  
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1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:
Seemingly against all odds, the Billikens still have a fighting chance to finish 4th and avoid playing Thursday in Brooklyn.
 
Here is the perfect storm scenario:
 
VCU wins at George Mason Tuesday.
SLU wins at home over Duquesne Wednesday.
St. Bona loses at Davidson Wednesday.
SLU wins at St. Bona on Saturday.  This is the biggest question mark in the whole perfect storm scenario.
Dayton wins at Duquesne Saturday night.
 
All of this will happen.  

fixed your post

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12 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

fixed your post

+1,000

The only downside to finishing 4th is that would yield a potential semi-final matchup Saturday against #1 seed VCU.  

But I would rather SLU have to play and win only 3 games to win the A10 Tourney and snare the NCAA Automatic Bid, especially with this depleted roster.  And SLU is probably going to have to beat VCU at some point anyway, absent VCU getting upset beforehand.

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19 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

+1,000

The only downside to finishing 4th is that would yield a potential semi-final matchup Saturday against #1 seed VCU.  

But I would rather SLU have to play and win only 3 games to win the A10 Tourney and snare the NCAA Automatic Bid, especially with this depleted roster.  And SLU is probably going to have to beat VCU at some point anyway, absent VCU getting upset beforehand.

We can beat VCU on a neutral court. Plus the A10 will tell the officials they want someone other than VCU to win the tourney so that the league gets two teams in...Worked against us in 2014, could work for us this year. 

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23 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Technically we can still get the 3 seed if all of that happens and Dayton loses both games

I’d rather UD beat the dukes 

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On 3/4/2019 at 3:31 PM, Bay Area Billiken said:
Seemingly against all odds, the Billikens still have a fighting chance to finish 4th and avoid playing Thursday in Brooklyn.
 
Here is the perfect storm scenario:
 
VCU wins at George Mason Tuesday.
SLU wins at home over Duquesne Wednesday.
St. Bona loses at Davidson Wednesday.
SLU wins at St. Bona on Saturday.  This is the biggest question mark in the whole perfect storm scenario.
Dayton wins at Duquesne Saturday night.
 
All of this could actually happen.  

1 down, 4 to go 

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Another step closer as GM gets bombed by VCU......71-36

I guess we completely deflated GM....

Now we need a win by Dav over  St. B tomorrow night and our fate will be back in our hands.

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On 3/4/2019 at 3:31 PM, Bay Area Billiken said:
Seemingly against all odds, the Billikens still have a fighting chance to finish 4th and avoid playing Thursday in Brooklyn.
 
Here is the perfect storm scenario:
 
VCU wins at George Mason Tuesday.
SLU wins at home over Duquesne Wednesday.
St. Bona loses at Davidson Wednesday.
SLU wins at St. Bona on Saturday.  This is the biggest question mark in the whole perfect storm scenario.
Dayton wins at Duquesne Saturday night.
 
All of this could actually happen.  

Let's say the first 4 happen. Even if Duquesne beats Dayton, we would still finish tied with them in the standings. Who wins tiebreaker between us and Duquesne?

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2 minutes ago, SLUperman said:

Let's say the first 4 happen. Even if Duquesne beats Dayton, we would still finish tied with them in the standings. Who wins tiebreaker between us and Duquesne?

If DUQ beats DAY and DAY loses to LAS along with the other 3, we get the 3 seed. Of course, we have to win out either way

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22 minutes ago, SLUperman said:

Let's say the first 4 happen. Even if Duquesne beats Dayton, we would still finish tied with them in the standings. Who wins tiebreaker between us and Duquesne?

First , Duq would have to beat Dayton..,..Day will be favored.

If Duq beats Day and we beat Duq and St. B ...we win the tie breaker.

I don't know if you want to know how this works but here goes.... the A-10 looks at the record against  common opponents in descending order...assuming a tie at the end of the season...Duq matches us all the way to St. B ...they have 2 losses against St. B...we win the tie breaker with our win over St. B........assuming we beat Duq and lose to St. B and Duq loses to Day then it would go down to LaS and RI....If LaS finishes ahead of RI ...we win the tie breaker....If RI finishes ahead of LaS....we lose the tie breaker. ..If LaS and RI finish tied....ask me then and I will make the calculation....

For now the Bills need to win the next 2.....and St. B needs to lose tomorrow to Dav and we take 4th.

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

First , Duq would have to beat Dayton..,..Day will be favored.

If Duq beats Day and we beat Duq and St. B ...we win the tie breaker.

I don't know if you want to know how this works but here goes.... the A-10 looks at the record against  common opponents in descending order...assuming a tie at the end of the season...Duq matches us all the way to St. B ...they have 2 losses against St. B...we win the tie breaker with our win over St. B........assuming we beat Duq and lose to St. B and Duq loses to Day then it would go down to LaS and RI....If LaS finishes ahead of RI ...we win the tie breaker....If RI finishes ahead of LaS....we lose the tie breaker. ..If LaS and RI finish tied....ask me then and I will make the calculation....

For now the Bills need to win the next 2.....and St. B needs to lose tomorrow to Dav and we take 4th.

Gotcha. Thanks Wiz for the thoroughly in depth analysis.  

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