A-10...Down the Stretch

[The Wiz]

Here are the standings  and grades of the top 7 teams ...the only teams that have a realistic chance to finish at least 4th...All have no more than 5 losses with 5 games to go

A-10 standings.............................................Record........................Overall grade...............Trending grade 

VCU.................................................................11-2...............................A-  .....................................A

Dav...................................................................10-3...............................B........................................B

Day...................................................................9-4..................................B+.......................................B+

GMU..................................................................9-4..................................C+......................................C+

Duq....................................................................8-5..................................C+.......................................C+

SLU....................................................................8-5..................................B-.........................................B-

St. B....................................................................8-5..................................C+........................................B+

 

VCU has the best chance for an at large bid.....If the season ended today , they would be in.....However , going forward , a loss here or there and they could lose their A- grade  which is kind of a minimum to get an at large bid (80% chance to get a bid).  Day and Dav have about a 25% chance for a bid at this time.  Going forward Day and Dav have an equal chance to make the Dance.....Dav's   1 game lead equalizes Day better grades.  Which bring us to the remaining 4 teams....This is a 4 team race for the last spot...the last spot being GM's  spot.  Because of GM's weaker grades , it is a 4 team race...Day is not catchable at this point.  Of the 4 teams,  SLU is the best team overall....but St. B is trending the strongest....So at this point SLU and St. B  have equal chances to make 4th  based on grades ...while GM is also equal as their 1 game lead equalizes their weaker grades.

And now for the monkey wrench..............If SLU could win tomorrow.....everything changes.  It becomes a 5 team race with SLU having the tie breaker  over Day....We would be in 4th and have the best overall and trending grades. ie best chance to finish 4th.  It doesn't look good if you read the spread thread.  However if we could play at the same intensity (and the same numbers ) we did last  time we faced Day...it does show we could win this game.

Won't be easy....but a big win if we can pull it off.

Go Bills.

 

 

 

 

 

[HoosierPal]

Davidson took down Rhody on the road last night.  The Wildcats were 9 of 13 from three.  That's 69.2%.

If we could hit our foul shots at 69.2%.......

[billikenbill]

Duquesne beats Mason 79-78 after trailing by 19 early.

[The Wiz]

Update....

While it would have been nice to beat Dayton...we would have been in the cat bird's seat...it is not the end of the world . GM loss keeps us in the race.  It is still a 4 team race with 4 games to go. ....soon to be a 3 team race as  Duq play St. B on Wed.. The good news is we control our own destiny ...we don't need anybody's help. We play all the teams that are ahead of us in the remaining 4 games. The bad news is we have to sweep.   We will be favored in at least 2 and maybe 3 games.  The one we won't be favored in will be the next game...VCU...I mentioned in the preseason forecast that the VCU would be the big game of the season....True then ...true today.

I will review the VCU/ SLU data tomorrow and figure out what we need to do to win....

Sweep 4??....Stranger things have happened.

[HoosierPal]

Ok, here we go.  With today's loss we are 7th in the league.  VCU, Davidson, and now Dayton have the inside lane for a top 4 seed.  We have to jump over or tie Duquesne, George Mason, and St. Bonaventure.

Duquesne's remaining four games are @ St. Bonnie, UMass, @SLU, and Dayton

George Mason's 4 are Richmond, @SLU, VCU and @GW

St. Bonnie has Duquesne, @GW,  @Davidson, and SLU

We of course have @VCU, George Mason, Duquesne, and @St. Bonnie

On the surface, George Mason has the easiest stretch with only two top teams left. Duquesne has three top teams, St. Bonnie four and SLU four. It's a mess right now, but we still have a shot at a top 4 finish. 

Dayton has @UMass, Rhode Island, LaSalle, and @Duquesne.  They should be able to hold onto #3 or at worse slip to #4.

On the flip side, we are one win or one St. Joe loss from avoiding the PIG game.  That shouldn't be a problem.  IF the tourney started with today's standings, we would be up against Rhode Island and after that win, Davidson.  But standings will change in the next two weeks.

[HoosierPal]

Wiz has VCU by 13 tomorrow.  Even the most passionate Billiken fan likely wouldn't put the next mortgage payment on the Bills winning this game straight up.  VCU is 14-1 at Home and we are 4-6 Away.  However, even with an L, a tourney bye is still very much possible.  Pick up an L against VCU, and then win out against George Mason, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure, and we can end up in a three way tie for 4th, and have the tie-breaker, IF:

Duquesne goes 1-3, with a road loss against St. Bonnie, a win against UMass, and then two losses against SLU and Dayton.  Possible, but Duquesne is the surprise team of the A-10. This puts the Dukes at 10-8.  

George Mason wins against Richmond, L against SLU and VCU, and then let them win against George Washington to make this interesting.  This gives them 11-7.

St. Bonaventure, a home win against Duquesne, a road win at George Washington, a loss at Davidson and a home loss against SLU on Senior Night.  This gives them 11-7

SLU, a road loss at VCU, then win out against George Mason, Duquesne and St. Bonavaenture.  This leaves us 11-7 but tie breaker wins against George Mason and St. Bonaventure.

If Duquesne wiggles into our tie, the tie breaker would not yet be determined.  

Richmond, UMass and GW all have the ability to mess this up, maybe favorably for the Bills.

[Cowboy]

33 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Wiz has VCU by 13 tomorrow.  Even the most passionate Billiken fan likely wouldn't put the next mortgage payment on the Bills winning this game straight up.  VCU is 14-1 at Home and we are 4-6 Away.  However, even with an L, a tourney bye is still very much possible.  Pick up an L against VCU, and then win out against George Mason, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure, and we can end up in a three way tie for 4th, and have the tie-breaker, IF:

Duquesne goes 1-3, with a road loss against St. Bonnie, a win against UMass, and then two losses against SLU and Dayton.  Possible, but Duquesne is the surprise team of the A-10. This puts the Dukes at 10-8.  

George Mason wins against Richmond, L against SLU and VCU, and then let them win against George Washington to make this interesting.  This gives them 11-7.

St. Bonaventure, a home win against Duquesne, a road win at George Washington, a loss at Davidson and a home loss against SLU on Senior Night.  This gives them 11-7

SLU, a road loss at VCU, then win out against George Mason, Duquesne and St. Bonavaenture.  This leaves us 11-7 but tie breaker wins against George Mason and St. Bonaventure.

If Duquesne wiggles into our tie, the tie breaker would not yet be determined.  

Richmond, UMass and GW all have the ability to mess this up, maybe favorably for the Bills.

-I hope we don't mess it up for ourselves, let's close strong and I have no idea where this will come from

[HoosierPal]

Just saw this:  

 

 

[Box and Won]

4 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Just saw this:  

 

 

Hopefully Dambrot will take them to the tournament and bolt for greener pastures.  Otherwise, they're gonna be a problem.

[kmbilliken]

5 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Hopefully Dambrot will take them to the tournament and bolt for greener pastures.  Otherwise, they're gonna be a problem.

 Hopefully he stays and builds them into a strong program. It is better for everyone in the league if we have strong teams top to bottom.

[Quality Is Job 1]

13 minutes ago, kmbilliken said:

 Hopefully he stays and builds them into a strong program. It is better for everyone in the league if we have strong teams top to bottom.

Good post; however, it's still my hope for SLU to get into the Big East.

[Billiken Rich]

Wow Thicks can be bad posted now...…….yay   

[White Pelican]

6 hours ago, Box and Won said:

Hopefully Dambrot will take them to the tournament and bolt for greener pastures.  Otherwise, they're gonna be a problem.

No, you want to be in a league with good teams and good coaches. If your team can't succeed, you make some changes until it does. What is the point of wishing/hoping we get into the Big East if we're going to worry about how good the coaches are?  A good league gets more interest, publicity and postseason bids. And better players.

[slu72]

One of the reasons we had such high expectations this year was we  thought the A10 was in a down year. Actually it's been much stronger than anticipated. VCU and Dayton were expected to be in rebuild mold. Not the case. Also, teams like Duquesne and St B's doing a lot more than predicted. 

Problem w/ the league is it hasn't had many high profile OOC wins. VCU beating Texas was the biggest and not much else. Not sure our Ws over Oregon St, Butler and SH qualify as high profile Ws. 

According to Taj Mahal 79 most A10 teams return intact next year. Hopefully that gets the league some big OOC Ws and restores the league's  rep as the best mid major conference. But it's bad news for us, since we're likely to be one of the league's youngest teams. 

[3star_recruit]

53 minutes ago, slu72 said:

One of the reasons we had such high expectations this year was we  thought the A10 was in a down year. Actually it's been much stronger than anticipated. VCU and Dayton were expected to be in rebuild mold. Not the case. Also, teams like Duquesne and St B's doing a lot more than predicted. 

Problem w/ the league is it hasn't had many high profile OOC wins. VCU beating Texas was the biggest and not much else. Not sure our Ws over Oregon St, Butler and SH qualify as high profile Ws. 

According to Taj Mahal 79 most A10 teams return intact next year. Hopefully that gets the league some big OOC Ws and restores the league's  rep as the best mid major conference. But it's bad news for us, since we're likely to be one of the league's youngest teams. 

We have more talent 1 through 6 than St Bonaventure, Duquesne and George Mason,  yet they're poised to finish ahead of us.  Plugging in the skills gap on this roster and adding depth, even with young players, puts us in a better position than we are today.  

[HoosierPal]

57 minutes ago, slu72 said:

One of the reasons we had such high expectations this year was we  thought the A10 was in a down year. Actually it's been much stronger than anticipated. VCU and Dayton were expected to be in rebuild mold. Not the case. Also, teams like Duquesne and St B's doing a lot more than predicted. 

Problem w/ the league is it hasn't had many high profile OOC wins. VCU beating Texas was the biggest and not much else. Not sure our Ws over Oregon St, Butler and SH qualify as high profile Ws. 

According to Taj Mahal 79 most A10 teams return intact next year. Hopefully that gets the league some big OOC Ws and restores the league's  rep as the best mid major conference. But it's bad news for us, since we're likely to be one of the league's youngest teams. 

Brian Kunderman said something like after SLU there are only 8 rotational players in the A-10 that are seniors.  Maybe he added "on higher level teams", I don't recall.  So yeah, the A10 will be dynamite next season.  If you look at the pre-season A10 teams, the seniors on the three teams were Livingston, Bess, Stockton, Cunningham, and Powell.  That's it, 5 out of 15.  Certainly transfers will hurt several teams (Fordham every year) but the freshmen that came in this season were pretty good.  

Having 7, 8, or 9 new players won't be easy for Coach Ford.  It takes time to mold the skills together into a cohesive unit.  Ford said a week ago that Isabell just now is getting into the team flow.

[3star_recruit]

I'd rather finish in 7th place with four freshmen in the rotation than four seniors. The former puts us on a trajectory for success. The latter is just depressing.

[brianstl]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

One of the reasons we had such high expectations this year was we  thought the A10 was in a down year. Actually it's been much stronger than anticipated. VCU and Dayton were expected to be in rebuild mold. Not the case. Also, teams like Duquesne and St B's doing a lot more than predicted. 

Problem w/ the league is it hasn't had many high profile OOC wins. VCU beating Texas was the biggest and not much else. Not sure our Ws over Oregon St, Butler and SH qualify as high profile Ws. 

According to Taj Mahal 79 most A10 teams return intact next year. Hopefully that gets the league some big OOC Ws and restores the league's  rep as the best mid major conference. But it's bad news for us, since we're likely to be one of the league's youngest teams. 

The conference is way down this season. This is only the second time since we joined the A10 that the conference won't finish in Sagarin's top 10 conferences.Only the fourth time it won't finish in the top 8.  According to Sagarins's central mean, this if the worst the A10 has been since we joined the conference.  It wasn't only a down year for the A10, it was a historically bad year for the A10.

[billiken_roy]

3 minutes ago, brianstl said:

The conference is way down this season. This is only the second time since we joined the A10 that the conference won't finish in Sagarin's top 10 conferences.Only the fourth time it won't finish in the top 8.  According to Sagarins's central mean, this if the worst the A10 has been since we joined the conference.  It wasn't only a down year for the A10, it was a historically bad year for the A10.

i agree.   i think what 72 is mistakening is the amount of parity.    yes there are more teams about equal,  but still most every team in the conference is not worthy of competing with the upper teams of the P5 conferences.   

[slu72]

22 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i agree.   i think what 72 is mistakening is the amount of parity.    yes there are more teams about equal,  but still most every team in the conference is not worthy of competing with the upper teams of the P5 conferences.   

I may not have presented this well. My intent was that we were projected to be # 1 not only because on paper we were loaded, but also because our competition in tha A10 wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years. The conference is down vs other mids based on what it did in OOC play.

But in Conference play, as B'roy stated, there was a lot more parity than expected. 

[slu72]

44 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I'd rather finish in 7th place with four freshmen in the rotation than four seniors. The former puts us on a trajectory for success. The latter is just depressing.

Totally agree. As next year's roster stands today, a 7th place finish might be a miracle assuming Taj's analysis that most teams aren't going to see a lot of roster turnover next season. 

[3star_recruit]

If Goodwin and French really are top 15 players in the conference, then giving them a pass first point guard, multiple three point shooters and an greyhound in transition shouldn't require a miracle to finish 7th in the A10. That's twice as much talent as UMass, GW, LaSalle and Fordham.

[3star_recruit]

If Goodwin and French really are top 15 players in the conference, then giving them a pass first point guard, multiple three point shooters and an greyhound in transition shouldn't require a miracle to finish 7th in the A10. That's twice as much talent as UMass, GW, LaSalle and Fordham.

[HoosierPal]

Tonight in the A10 and how it impacts SLU and our still possible Top 4 finish

We need St. Bonaventure to take down the Dukes.  It isn't 100% mandatory, but the Bill's potential path to a Top Four is easier to navigate with a Bonnie's win.

Davidson and George Mason are presumed winners in their games.  A George Mason loss helps our cause big time, but it likely won't happen.  We aren't going to catch Davidson.  If the Explorer's win at home, they pull within a game of the Bills.  LaSalle can't get to the Top 4 tie without a major train wreck on several fronts.  Same statement applies for Richmond.  Losses for either puts them pretty much out of a Top Four, but they are both still mathematically alive.  Let's give them both L's and not have to worry about them anymore.

It would be 'nice' for Saint Joseph's to lose tonight, as it would eliminate the last possibility of our Bills being in the PIG.  We need one win or one Saint Joe loss.  The sooner it is off the table the better.  

[Gremio14]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Tonight in the A10 and how it impacts SLU and our still possible Top 4 finish

We need St. Bonaventure to take down the Dukes.  It isn't 100% mandatory, but the Bill's potential path to a Top Four is easier to navigate with a Bonnie's win.

Davidson and George Mason are presumed winners in their games.  A George Mason loss helps our cause big time, but it likely won't happen.  We aren't going to catch Davidson.  If the Explorer's win at home, they pull within a game of the Bills.  LaSalle can't get to the Top 4 tie without a major train wreck on several fronts.  Same statement applies for Richmond.  Losses for either puts them pretty much out of a Top Four, but they are both still mathematically alive.  Let's give them both L's and not have to worry about them anymore.

It would be 'nice' for Saint Joseph's to lose tonight, as it would eliminate the last possibility of our Bills being in the PIG.  We need one win or one Saint Joe loss.  The sooner it is off the table the better.  

Mason is really struggling.  Destroyed in Olean and giving up a 20 point lead to Dukes last Saturday.  I won’t be at all surprised if the Spiders take them down.