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Dayton over The Bills by 9


The Wiz

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Well, the easy way to do this is to take our winning margin in the last game of 13pts  and swap out the home field advantages (9pts) and say we win by 4 . But unfortunately that's not how it works. If you are a believer , you can forget the headline...have a glass of blue kool-aid and stop reading here.

For those that are still here.....

As I started to gather data to do this thread , it seemed something was very familiar with both the names and the stats. Things haven't changed much much from the last time we played Dayton. So, since there is no reason to reinvent the wheel...I will post the SLU / Dayton  thread ( pre and post game analysis) from the Feb 5th game ...with a few updates.

First, the pre game analysis  from Feb 3rd..........

 

Dayton comes in with a B average....they have below average 3P  & FT shooting .  Our rebounding is better....Our D is better....On the surface this all seems promising ....but there is a huge elephant in the room.....2 P shooting ...You will note in the report card that Day is 4th In The Nation in FG%....this is a result of their 2P% being 59.6%...2nd ITN...So we have our work cut out for us.

Let's look at the report card.....

...............................SLU..............................Day.............................................SLU...................................Day

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................C+..................................................A..................................B

FG%..........................F+................................A+... 4th  ITN.................................A-.................................B

3P%..........................F..................................D  ....................................................A.................................C

FT%...........................F-...3rd worst ITN......D.........................................................................................

Reb............................A................................C.................................................B....................................B

No change in our grades from last game.

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...36th 

Rebs....French.......64th 

Blks.....French.........84th

FG%.....Toppin.........8th (69.1%)....Cunningham....38th (62.5%)

Assts...Crutcher......28th

WWN2D2W....Day has a balanced scoring attack with 6 players who can score in double figures.....Stop their big 3....Toppin , Cunningham & Crutcher....No player should score more than 11 pts...with no more than 3 in double figures....We need to have no more than 11 TOs...Dayton doesn't force TOs...they are an F team in forcing TOs...we need to win the TO battle.  We also should win the rebound war.  Make the entire slash ...42/31/60

WCGW...We lose the TO battle...this could happen by unforced TOs...... We let them make uncontested bunnies and layups....You will know this is happening if you see 2P% is above 60...They start to intentionally  try and gain a FT advantage....figuring we have a 36% chance of making 2 FTs while they have 60 to 70% chance of making  2s.

Bottom line....This will be a very close game...  again.  Good chance of OT.  Unforced errors could be a killer. If we can stay away from those and make the easy shots....layups, fast breaks some bunnies we can win this game.

"Most lay-ups  and 2 foot jump shots around the goal are missed by not putting the ball up high enough on the backboard."......Rick Majerus

 

OK ...we are back to the present...with just a few updates. ....Dayton is now a B+ team up from the last time we faced them ( B ) ...The improvement has mainly been on defense..

Here is the updated report card....

SLU is the same on offense ...sadly , we have slipped from 3rd WITN to 2nd  in FT%....The good news is the defense has stayed the same.

Dayton....Offense is the same  except for a slight slip in offense reb to C-...they are still 2nd ITN in 2P% ...Meanwhile, their defense is better....PPG and FG% both up to B+ and 3P% up to B-

TOP 100 ITN

Same players on both teams  but different ranks since last time

Goodwin...48th...stls

French ...58th... rebs

French...75th ...blks

FG%...Toppin 11th (67.3%)...Cunningham...31st (62.8%)

Crutcher ...32nd ...assts

WWN2D2W & WCGW ...both the same as last time....

 

Now let's jump back in time to Feb 6 and look at the post game analysis.....

 

You have to keep the faith.... To those that saw this game as a blowout for the bad guys, they  should have known something was up based on the spread.

This was a quality win and a great team effort..... 5 players in double figures led by Foreman who was supercharged with 18 pts...and missed a double double by 1 reb...French missed one  by  2 rebs and Thatch missed one by 3 rebs.

Let's take a look at the WWN2D2W paragraph.....

"WWN2D2W....Day has a balanced scoring attack with 6 players who can score in double figures.....Stop their big 3....Toppin , Cunningham & Crutcher....No player should score more than 11 pts...with no more than 3 in double figures....We need to have no more than 11 TOs...Dayton doesn't force TOs...they are an F team in forcing TOs...we need to win the TO battle.  We also should win the rebound war.  Make the entire slash ...42/31/60"

"No player for Day  scores more than 11 and not more than 3 in double figures"...Actual top 3 scores had 12...11...11  and there were only 3 players in double figures....The had the exact  number of players in double figures and The Bills were within 1 pt of  holding them to  the triple 11 forecast...an outstanding effort and a definite pass....Win the TO battle....we did by 3 (worth an extra 6pts.) fantastic rate of only 9 TOs...Win the rebound war...we dominated on the boards....SLU  is 3rd ITN  in offensive reb with 12.4/gm...tonight we had 19 Off rebs (maybe enough to move up to 2nd ITN)...and this was the secret to the win...by sweeping the boards we got 26 pts on second chance baskets...Phenomenal. ...And finally the slash...42/31 /60...actual...42/25/ 63....I will give us a pass on this too as we were only one 3 Pt shot off from making the slash....One last thing ...FTs....while we lost the FT% contest  we won overall as we had an extra 9 FTM...nearly the winning spread....btw for those that missed it,  French made 2 consecutive  FTs on one trip to the line.....chances of that happening were only 11%....a special moment.

Bottom line....The Bills played with confidence and energy ...They played as a team...They took the final 2 1/2 min from the Richmond game  and played like that the entire game tonight. We won the game because we wanted it more than Dayton. Our shooting numbers were pretty much Billiken numbers.  However,  from the opening gun , we came at them and knocked them off their heels. They never did recover. We lead the entire game from post to post.

We need to bottle that and use it for the rest of the season.

 

And again back to the present....the only update I made to the post game was to bold letter the "Bottom line " paragraph.  Referring to the Bottom line paragraph............If we do it again (intensity),  we can do it again (win).

 
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I forgot to include the latest injury report I have  in the original post

 
Demarius Jacobs G Ques Sat - Ankle - 2/17/19 Jacobs is sidelined with an ankle injury and it is unknown if he will return against Dayton on Saturday.
KC Hankton F Ques Sat - Shoulder - 2/17/19 Hankton suffered a shoulder injury and it is unclear if he will return to the lineup for Saturday's contest against Dayton.
Elliott Welmer F out for season - Foot - 2/3/19 Welmer is sidelined with a left foot fracture and will likely miss the rest of the season.
     
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46 minutes ago, slu72 said:

We're better than VCU? Surprising, but glad to hear it. I still see those empty lower bowl seats and get ticked. They should be packed.

I haven't checked the A-10 home field rankings in a while....actually GW has slipped into the #1 spot in the A-10 ....followed by Day ...SLU  and then VCU

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Well this will be relatively easy to analyze....

It all came down to Dayton 3 pt shooting....If you look at the report card above you will see that Day is not very good at 3P  shooting ( D )  However , today they shot 45.5% from the arc and 63% (7-11) from  3 in the 2nd half.  I've got news for you ...if you put Dayton out on the court by themselves, they would not shoot 63% most days.  Dayton had 3 extra 3PM shots....worth 9 pts ...and that is the difference  in the  game. Take away those 3 shots and they come in at almost exactly at  there 3P% and FG%...we actually held them below  their 2PT%(2nd ITN --59.2% ) with a 53.8%. 

The Bills pretty much did what they were supposed to do. ... TO spread was great 11 to 15  in the Bills favor....Off reb was good ...def reb a little short but no big deal...slash line was a few points short on FT which we made up with an extra couple of baskets..

Bottom line...the Bills did what they were supposed to do and under normal circumstances would have won. We just ran into a hot 3P team that normally doesn't do that. ...it happens.  Time to move on ...we are still in the battle for 4th place and control our own destiny.

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