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kinda bracketology how far down for at large bids in both ncaa and NIT


billiken_roy

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As of this morning, there are only teams from 12 conferences with top 40 NET rankings.   Therefore 20 automatic bids will come from conferences with imo not worthy for at large bids.   

so taking the top 40 teams as bids plus these 20 not worthy qualifiers.   that leaves 8 open bids for at large bids so the projected cutoff line is 48 for the ncaa tourney.   however if a team below that line wins a conference tourney from one of the 12 top conferences, subtract one of the 8 open bids.  

assuming there are none of these upsets, and all the lower ranked conferences also have no  upsets in their respective tourneys, 

the NIT cut off line would be 80.  

so as we speak, in the A10 VCU is clinging to an at large bid in the ncaa with their 37 ranking.  

davidson and dayton are clinging to NIT bids with their 72 and 75 rankings.   

I would think VCU is fairly safe and there now appears to be a good chance the A10 could get two bids with VCU not winning the conference tourney and getting an at large bid.  

Davidson is likely pretty safe for the NIT.   however Dayton could use some success to get beyond the 6 possible conference tourney upsets that would put them out of the NIT.

everyone else in the A10 either has to win the conference tourney to get to post season or head to panama city for spring break.  

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An unwritten rule for the NIT is that you need 17 regular season wins to get an At Large bid.  For the past five years, no team has had an At Large without 17 W's.

In today's NET, there are 5 teams ranked 80 or better that won't get to 17 regular season wins.  Chances are good the NET line will go down to 85 plus or minus.  Best example, Penn State is 61 in the NET and is 10-16.  They aren't going anywhere. 

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3 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

An unwritten rule for the NIT is that you need 17 regular season wins to get an At Large bid.  For the past five years, no team has had an At Large without 17 W's.

In today's NET, there are 5 teams ranked 80 or better that won't get to 17 regular season wins.  Chances are good the NET line will go down to 85 plus or minus.  Best example, Penn State is 61 in the NET and is 10-16.  They aren't going anywhere. 

That suggests the NET has some major flaws they need to fix.

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4 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Penn State beat VTech in noncon and Michigan but are 3-12 in their conference. Makes no sense they are that high.

 

i will forever trust KenPom the most. Just make that the official ranking system the committee uses

Pomeroy has Penn St at 45.

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Penn St and Indiana are huge outliers in these calculations.  This has been a problem with these systems that measure, record, sos and opponent record.  So a bad team who plays a really strong schedule can have a great ranking by getting a couple lucky victories and just not getting blown out.  Penn St has really good Off and def rankings but they aren't in most games.  I don't think Penn St beats us, especially not at home.

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