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The Bills over LaS by 6


The Wiz

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The bleeding from the St, J game has stopped but we need to have a big win against LaS to get the trend line pointed up again.  The variable point spread for this game is 2-10 pts.  A big win would be to exceed the variable point spread on the upper end....ie win the game by more than 10 pts.

Let's take a look at the report card.....

..............................SLU...............................LaS.............................................SLU....................................LaS

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D-....................................................A...................................D+

FG%..........................F+.................................F+... .............................................. ...B+...............................D-

3P%..........................F...................................C-  ....................................................A....................................C

FT%...........................F-...5th WITN..............A..............................................................................................

Reb............................A................................D-.....................................................B........................................D+

Change in our grades from last game.

UP....OFF...FG% & 3P%

 

Injury report

2/13/19   Jacobs (ankle) ...questionable....unknown whether he can play Sat

2/15   Hankton (shoulder) .... questionable ...it is unknown if he will be able to play Sat 

2/3...Welmer...Fractured left foot...out for season

 

2/10....Clark  (lower body injury)  out indefinitely....no timetable for return.

2/13...Moultrie (upper body) ...questionable....unknown if he will play Sat. 



WWN2D2W...Stop Powell....hold him to 13....everyone else to single digits.... TOs need to be equal or better...12 should do it.....Dominate the boards....make the slash 42/31/61'

WCGW....We lose the reb battle....the game is close in the final 3 min ...within 3 pts. They shoot A from the FT line ...we shoot F-....not the best scenario.

Bottom line....A game we should win...the spread variable is wide 2-10 pts....if we are at the lower end of normal ...2pts,  we could be in trouble....The Bills are the better team on paper , especially on defense....we need to play like we did against GW and then it will be a double digit win.

 

 

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Personnel:  nothing has changed from the last time we saw the Spelunkers.  They remain a four-out; one-in kind of team playing mostly guards.  Kimbrough starts as their lone big at 6'8" but both Saul Phiri and Isiah Deas can be considered small forwards at 6'6" and 6'4'.  The backcourt is small with both Carter and Powell right around 6'.  The benchgoes about three deep with one guard (Beatty) and two forwards (Brookins and Crosswell).

Powell is still the man, averaging just over 16 ppg.  Phiri and Deas come in at just over 10 ppg but freshman forward Jack Clark, the promising local freshman who did well against us with 14 in the first game, hasn't seen the floor since mid-January.  He missed the first half of the season recovering from a devastating ACL injury in high school and with no information around, I am assuming there is a setback there.

La Salle is rising under first-year coach Ashley Howard.  But that requires some perspective.  They started out 0 and 10, won three in a row, then lost four more in a row. Currently they six at 6 and 5 in conference, one game behind us but they have racked those wins up against Umass (twice), Fordham, Richmond and the Joeys, before hanging on at Gola against Duquesne by one earlier this week. But winning breeds confidence and confidence turns into success.  I see them going 2 and 5 from hereon out.  At least no PIG game.

Defensively, they are soft with no real rim protector.  They play typical Philly ball in that they want to push tempo and run-n-gun with you.  Powell can get his, but the key will be not allowing a Phiri or a Deas to join in the fun.  I have to admit, I am surprised we are not favored by more in the Wiz universe.  Of course, ESPN only has a favored by 7.

Elsewhere today, Duquesne hosts Geedubya (+8).  Rhodey (-11) hosts Fordham.  Dayton (-1.5) hosts VCU at 4 (EST) on NBC SN.  Going with the favorites across the board.  They all may not cover but I expect them to record wins.

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Per Stu, Bonner helped at practice again yesterday.  After banging against AB, French should have no problem with Kimbrough.

Also, a  report from Dayton: Trey Landers of Dayton will not play today against VCU due to a shoulder injury sustained in practice. 

Their normal rotation is 8, so they either go with 7 or dip into the bench warmers.  We need Dayton to lose.

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That's a key loss for the Daytites.  Landers is not a scorer but an emotion man.  Plus he has the physicality to match up better with some of VCU's thugs on the front line.  Santos-Silva can equate to Cunningham.  Douglas can even out Toppin.  That leaves Mikesell all alone against Gilmore, Mobley, Isaac Vann, De'riante Jenkins and Vince Williams.  

In the backcourt, Dayton appears overmatched with Crutcher, Davis and Cohill against Evans, Simms, Byrd and Crowfield with Jenkins and Vann also available there.  Mighty Mo and the homecourt can do wonders.

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36 minutes ago, Old guy said:

We will be there this afternoon, hoping for a victory.

Pre-gaming at the Field House now go bills

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Very nice win.....

Here's how we did it....

Stopped Powell....In the original post I projected Powell at 13 pts....he scored 2 pts...great defensive job....worth 11pts

TO spread...LaS...13...SLU..11 spread is 2 ...worth 4 pts.....while this doesn't seem like a big deal...it is...In the original post I had targeted 12 TOs  because 12  would most likely give us the "spread edge". By surpassing  12  TOs we not only pick up some extra pts but on the converse side it means we didn't give up 20 TOs.

We made the slash...almost...at least the important parts....projected was 42/ 31/ 61...actual 44/ 33/ 48....so we missed the FT part which cost us 3 pts.  We made the rest of it which was important. It also helped  (again) that we out shot them .... FTA ...27 vs 9...so the % didn't matter.

The math ....11+ 4 - 3 = 12 pts....or just about the final score spread.

Because we exceeded the upper spread number (10)...our numbers will improve....will it be enough to turn the trend  up....stay tuned ....for a few days...I have to wait till Wed to work on it as Dayton  (our next opponent )  doesn't play till  Tues night.   With the Bills now 1 game out of 4th place and playing better ... things  are looking up.

 

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23 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Per Stu, Bonner helped at practice again yesterday.  After banging against AB, French should have no problem with Kimbrough.

Also, a  report from Dayton: Trey Landers of Dayton will not play today against VCU due to a shoulder injury sustained in practice. 

Their normal rotation is 8, so they either go with 7 or dip into the bench warmers.  We need Dayton to lose.

Bonner is a great role model for this team - rebounding, defense, toughness, effort. In fact the entire team of 1993-94 Knicks with Bonner, Oakley, Mason, Starks (not to mention Ewing) are a great example of winning with those qualities, not with picture-perfect talent.

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