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The NIT

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I agree with 05 & Matty.  Let's just win the thing and not worry about NIT.

That being said, this is a message board and we have time to kill until Saturday.  Why not speculate about random hypothetical scenarios to keep our mind off of the biggest game SLU has played in the last 5 years. 

SLU was 110 in the NET rankings before our win last night.  Duquesne was 164, so I doubt a home win over them will move us up much.  A road win over Bonnies probably gives us a boost because they're 130.  Then some neutral site wins over whoever we'd play in the 2nd round and VCU would probably boost us as well.  I don't know how much of a boost, but let's do some math to see how high we might need to climb:

  • 68 teams make the NCAAs and another 32 make the NIT, so you'd assume a NET above 100 puts you in.  However, as Roy points out lower conferences will be taking spots below that level in one or both tournaments.  Example, Vermont is currently 78 in the NET and the top team in the American East.  If they don't win the conference tournament then someone below 100 is going to be in the NCAAs.  As of 3/5, 12 conferences have no teams in the top 100 NET and several others only have 1 team. 
  • Let's just assume that 25 spots in both tournaments go to teams with NETs below 100.  No idea how accurate that is, but that means SLU's NET would need to be higher than 75 to have a chance.
  • On the flip side, I think it is still a rule that you have to have a .500 or above record to make the NIT (is that right?).  There are 8 teams that currently have a losing record with NETs in the top 100 (Oklahoma St - 92, Illinois - 94, Penn St - 48, Northwestern - 95, Missouri - 88, Texas A&M - 79, Miami - 93, UConn - 96).  A couple others were at .500 and could fall below, but keep that top 100 net.
  • Given those teams, I think a NET from 75 - 80 puts SLU on the bubble and that could very likely be where SLU ends up in this scenario

Best case scenario I think overall for the A10 (and SLU) is that SLU wins out and beats Davidson in the finals of the A10 tournament.  All of the other top seeds go as far as they can (VCU loses to SLU in semis, Dayton loses to Davidson in semis).  In this scenario, SLU is the auto bid, VCU is an at-large.  Davidson is on the bubble and maybe makes it if things break right and the selection committee likes them.  Dayton is on the bubble as well, but highly unlikely to make it.  Best case 3 NCAA teams, 1 NIT team.  Worse case 2 NCAA teams and 2 NIT teams.

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4 minutes ago, slusam said:

Mays said at half time they have discussed playing in one of the other tournamnets if they dont win the A10 tournament. Not sure if he meant the others besides the NIT but i think he did.

Typically I'm not down with playing in anything other than the NIT, unless the team is super young.  I would have to think Bess wouldn't play, but the other seniors could still use any extra PT/exposure.  My only fear is the lack of depth to play in anything that low.  But, I would like to see Jacobs, KC, Fred, Jordan and Has all get some more time, specially the first three. 

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1 minute ago, wgstl said:

Typically I'm not down with playing in anything other than the NIT, unless the team is super young.  I would have to think Bess wouldn't play, but the other seniors could still use any extra PT/exposure.  My only fear is the lack of depth to play in anything that low.  But, I would like to see Jacobs, KC, Fred, Jordan and Has all get some more time, specially the first three. 

I think you'd either see Fred Thatch start (maybe even Jacobs and Hankton) I think Bess and Isabell would get a lot of run but nowhere close to their season averages. Now if we get to the NIT you dance with the girl who brought you.

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One game at a time, beat the Bunnies! 

One thing that gives me hope in Brooklyn is we should have beat Davidson and hung w/both UD and VCU at their place. This team is good enough to beat anyone in the A10. But what scares me is these tourney games often come down to FTs at the end of close games. That scares the living bejesus out of me. 

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RUBillsfan said: "On the flip side, I think it is still a rule that you have to have a .500 or above record to make the NIT (is that right?)."

The rule was changed when the NCAA took over the NIT and it says they can take sub .500 teams. The change was made so that if a team won their regular season title but had a losing overall record, they would still get the NIT bid. From a practical standpoint, that was put in to accommodate the MEAC and the SWAC because they lose so many buy games in Nov and December. For example, one year in the SWAC, the regular season winner, Texas Southern, was 0-13 in the non-con.  All at-large teams since then have had winning records.

 

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36 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I agree with 05 & Matty.  Let's just win the thing and not worry about NIT.

That being said, this is a message board and we have time to kill until Saturday.  Why not speculate about random hypothetical scenarios to keep our mind off of the biggest game SLU has played in the last 5 years. 

SLU was 110 in the NET rankings before our win last night.  Duquesne was 164, so I doubt a home win over them will move us up much.  A road win over Bonnies probably gives us a boost because they're 130.  Then some neutral site wins over whoever we'd play in the 2nd round and VCU would probably boost us as well.  I don't know how much of a boost, but let's do some math to see how high we might need to climb:

  • 68 teams make the NCAAs and another 32 make the NIT, so you'd assume a NET above 100 puts you in.  However, as Roy points out lower conferences will be taking spots below that level in one or both tournaments.  Example, Vermont is currently 78 in the NET and the top team in the American East.  If they don't win the conference tournament then someone below 100 is going to be in the NCAAs.  As of 3/5, 12 conferences have no teams in the top 100 NET and several others only have 1 team. 
  • Let's just assume that 25 spots in both tournaments go to teams with NETs below 100.  No idea how accurate that is, but that means SLU's NET would need to be higher than 75 to have a chance.
  • On the flip side, I think it is still a rule that you have to have a .500 or above record to make the NIT (is that right?).  There are 8 teams that currently have a losing record with NETs in the top 100 (Oklahoma St - 92, Illinois - 94, Penn St - 48, Northwestern - 95, Missouri - 88, Texas A&M - 79, Miami - 93, UConn - 96).  A couple others were at .500 and could fall below, but keep that top 100 net.
  • Given those teams, I think a NET from 75 - 80 puts SLU on the bubble and that could very likely be where SLU ends up in this scenario

Best case scenario I think overall for the A10 (and SLU) is that SLU wins out and beats Davidson in the finals of the A10 tournament.  All of the other top seeds go as far as they can (VCU loses to SLU in semis, Dayton loses to Davidson in semis).  In this scenario, SLU is the auto bid, VCU is an at-large.  Davidson is on the bubble and maybe makes it if things break right and the selection committee likes them.  Dayton is on the bubble as well, but highly unlikely to make it.  Best case 3 NCAA teams, 1 NIT team.  Worse case 2 NCAA teams and 2 NIT teams.

RU dont forget that 22 of the 68 teams (number of conferences that dont have even one top 40 team) will be teams that actually have no business rankingwise being even included in the ncaa if not a win in their conference tourney.   so assuming top 40 are in and then add these 22 lower conferences that are in for winning their conference tourney, that is 62 teams.   add 6 more teams you have your NCAA bracket teams.   so likely that will take you to approximately top 50 to complete the ncaa tourney.   

now the NIT has 32 teams.   they have auto bids for any conference team that won their regular season but lost in the tourney.   but even if you assume none of the lower conferences had this happen, 32 onto 50 puts you at 82 as the worst ranked team to make the NIT.   

we know some of those auto NIT bids will be lower conference upsets so my guess is the line will end up being around 75 or less.  

to be safe, any NIT at large bid hopeful team needs to likely be 70 or less imo.  if we win the next 4 games, i am not sure that puts us there.  Doubtful.  imo we are either auto bid ncaa tourney winners or we arent going to the ncaa or the nit tourney.  

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2 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

RU dont forget that 22 of the 68 teams (number of conferences that dont have even one top 40 team) will be teams that actually have no business rankingwise being even included in the ncaa if not a win in their conference tourney.   so assuming top 40 are in and then add these 22 lower conferences that are in for winning their conference tourney, that is 62 teams.   add 6 more teams you have your NCAA bracket teams.   so likely that will take you to approximately top 50 to complete the ncaa tourney.   

now the NIT has 32 teams.   they have auto bids for any conference team that won their regular season but lost in the tourney.   but even if you assume none of the lower conferences had this happen, 32 onto 50 puts you at 82 as the worst ranked team to make the NIT.   

we know some of those auto NIT bids will be lower conference upsets so my guess is the line will end up being around 75 or less.  

to be safe, any NIT at large bid hopeful team needs to likely be 70 or less imo.  if we win the next 4 games, i am not sure that puts us there.  Doubtful.  imo we are either auto bid ncaa tourney winners or we arent going to the ncaa or the nit tourney.  

Here is a factor to consider. In the past 5 years, no team has received an NIT bid with less than 17 regular season wins.  If that holds for this NIT, then the line slips.  Today,  #51 Penn State 15-15, #56 IU 15-14, #73 Missouri 14-15, #77 Texas A&M, 13-16, and #80 OK State 11-19 could fall below 17 wins. 

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Here is a factor to consider. In the past 5 years, no team has received an NIT bid with less than 17 regular season wins.  If that holds for this NIT, then the line slips.  Today,  #51 Penn State 15-15, #56 IU 15-14, #73 Missouri 14-15, #77 Texas A&M, 13-16, and #80 OK State 11-19 could fall below 17 wins. 

Watch Mizzou win 3 straight and steal our NIT bid

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30 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Watch Mizzou win 3 straight and steal our NIT bid

Mizzou only has 1 regular season game left.  So they max out at 15, maybe.  I'm not sure why the metric was regular season wins rather than total season wins (include conference tourney), but that is what it said in the article I read.

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5 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I agree with 05 & Matty.  Let's just win the thing and not worry about NIT.

That being said, this is a message board and we have time to kill until Saturday.  Why not speculate about random hypothetical scenarios to keep our mind off of the biggest game SLU has played in the last 5 years. 

SLU was 110 in the NET rankings before our win last night.  Duquesne was 164, so I doubt a home win over them will move us up much.  A road win over Bonnies probably gives us a boost because they're 130.  Then some neutral site wins over whoever we'd play in the 2nd round and VCU would probably boost us as well.  I don't know how much of a boost, but let's do some math to see how high we might need to climb:

  • 68 teams make the NCAAs and another 32 make the NIT, so you'd assume a NET above 100 puts you in.  However, as Roy points out lower conferences will be taking spots below that level in one or both tournaments.  Example, Vermont is currently 78 in the NET and the top team in the American East.  If they don't win the conference tournament then someone below 100 is going to be in the NCAAs.  As of 3/5, 12 conferences have no teams in the top 100 NET and several others only have 1 team. 
  • Let's just assume that 25 spots in both tournaments go to teams with NETs below 100.  No idea how accurate that is, but that means SLU's NET would need to be higher than 75 to have a chance.
  • On the flip side, I think it is still a rule that you have to have a .500 or above record to make the NIT (is that right?).  There are 8 teams that currently have a losing record with NETs in the top 100 (Oklahoma St - 92, Illinois - 94, Penn St - 48, Northwestern - 95, Missouri - 88, Texas A&M - 79, Miami - 93, UConn - 96).  A couple others were at .500 and could fall below, but keep that top 100 net.
  • Given those teams, I think a NET from 75 - 80 puts SLU on the bubble and that could very likely be where SLU ends up in this scenario

Best case scenario I think overall for the A10 (and SLU) is that SLU wins out and beats Davidson in the finals of the A10 tournament.  All of the other top seeds go as far as they can (VCU loses to SLU in semis, Dayton loses to Davidson in semis).  In this scenario, SLU is the auto bid, VCU is an at-large.  Davidson is on the bubble and maybe makes it if things break right and the selection committee likes them.  Dayton is on the bubble as well, but highly unlikely to make it.  Best case 3 NCAA teams, 1 NIT team.  Worse case 2 NCAA teams and 2 NIT teams.

good job makes sense.

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7 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

Or we go win the whole fuoking thing. 4 out of the last 7 conf. tourney champions came from the 4th spot.

Or... Isabell puts on his 2011 Cardiac Kemba suit and we win THEE whole fuoking thing 😎

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

Or we go win the whole fuoking thing. 4 out of the last 7 conf. tourney champions came from the 4th spot.

DELETED

Edited by SLUperman
Double post

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5 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Mizzou only has 1 regular season game left.  So they max out at 15, maybe.  I'm not sure why the metric was regular season wins rather than total season wins (include conference tourney), but that is what it said in the article I read.

if they beat Ole Miss they probably get an easy game vs  Vandy in the SEC tourney. If they steal one or two more it’s not impossible.  They are 73 in NET and a win or two could boat them even higher.

Lets with the A10 tourney and not worry about it 

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17 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

if they beat Ole Miss they probably get an easy game vs  Vandy in the SEC tourney. If they steal one or two more it’s not impossible.  They are 73 in NET and a win or two could boat them even higher.

Lets with the A10 tourney and not worry about it 

Tigerboard.com

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9 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Here is a factor to consider. In the past 5 years, no team has received an NIT bid with less than 17 regular season wins.  If that holds for this NIT, then the line slips.  Today,  #51 Penn State 15-15, #56 IU 15-14, #73 Missouri 14-15, #77 Texas A&M, 13-16, and #80 OK State 11-19 could fall below 17 wins. 

High Point got and invite in 2014 with a 16-14 record.

If we beat the Bonnies I think we're a lock for a CBI invite. The 3 invitees since the A10s 2013 exodus are: 

2016:

Duquesne Atlantic 10 16–16 6–12

2017: 

George Mason Atlantic 10 20–13 9–9
George Washington Atlantic 10 19–14 10–8

We'd obviously have at least as many total wins and more conference wins that any of those. 

As for the NIT - I don't think 21-12 or 22-12 record will quite do the trick. That GD home loss to Richmond is going to haunt us. 

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6 minutes ago, Compton said:

High Point got and invite in 2014 with a 16-14 record.

If we beat the Bonnies I think we're a lock for a CBI invite. The 3 invitees since the A10s 2013 exodus are: 

2016:

Duquesne Atlantic 10 16–16 6–12

2017: 

George Mason Atlantic 10 20–13 9–9
George Washington Atlantic 10 19–14 10–8

We'd obviously have at least as many total wins and more conference wins that any of those. 

As for the NIT - I don't think 21-12 or 22-12 record will quite do the trick. That GD home loss to Richmond is going to haunt us. 

My guess is because high point won the regular season = auto NIT invitation 

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Just for discussion purposes, here is the 2018 NIT, CBI and CIT participants with their RPI (there was no NET) at the beginning of the tourney.

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Boston College was the last in for the NIT at RPI 95. 

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More will 'win' NIT slots for winning the conference title but NOT winning their conference tourney's in the coming three days, but at Thursday's afternoon break there are 5 NIT slots taken (with one *).

Radford, Big South,  NET 144

Hofstra, Colonial, NET 74

Loyola, MVC, NET 126

S. Dakota State, Summit, NET 104

*Belmont, Ohio Valley, NET 46 and still hopeful and deserving of an NCAA At Large.

Okay, I won't add Gonzaga to this list.

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16 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

More will 'win' NIT slots for winning the conference title but NOT winning their conference tourney's in the coming three days, but at Thursday's afternoon break there are 5 NIT slots taken (with one *).

Radford, Big South,  NET 144

Hofstra, Colonial, NET 74

Loyola, MVC, NET 126

S. Dakota State, Summit, NET 104

*Belmont, Ohio Valley, NET 46 and still hopeful and deserving of an NCAA At Large.

Okay, I won't add Gonzaga to this list.

Colonial tournament winner (Northeastern) has a NET of 79, so they would've been on the NIT bubble regardless.  I'm not sure their moving up to the NCAAs n place of Hofstra actually takes away a spot.  It just switches who is in the NCAA vs NIT from that conference.  Likewise with Belmont (46 NET) and Murrray State (OVC winner, 45 NET).

Given those, only 3 (maybe 4) NIT spots were really "taken" by lesser teams.  Still not looking great for SLU (NET of 113) to make the NIT regardless, so let's just keep winning.

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4 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Colonial tournament winner (Northeastern) has a NET of 79, so they would've been on the NIT bubble regardless.  I'm not sure their moving up to the NCAAs n place of Hofstra actually takes away a spot.  It just switches who is in the NCAA vs NIT from that conference.  Likewise with Belmont (46 NET) and Murrray State (OVC winner, 45 NET).

Given those, only 3 (maybe 4) NIT spots were really "taken" by lesser teams.  Still not looking great for SLU (NET of 113) to make the NIT regardless, so let's just keep winning.

I wonder how far we could jump with two more wins.  those wins(I hate doing this btw) would be against a team with a net of 65 and 67 - hoping Davidson wins. 

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Some teams to keep in eye one. As of the latest bracketology(net ranking) these teams are in:

BYU -84 - 

SC -81 - 

wsu - 87 -  

Northeastern - 79

Oregon state - 88

Georgetown - 82

Yale - 85

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