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The Wiz

The Bills over St J by 3

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A big win last night . It not only stops the losing streak but turns our numbers around. We are still B- . However our trending line for the first time this season had fallen below our overall grade. With the win over Day we are now trending at B- also....so we have stopped the bleeding. The question now is ...where do we go from here. St. J comes into this game as a C team and is trending at D+...They also are thin on the bench too as they are now missing 4 players. As you will see in the report card below....on paper we should beat them. However the random factor is increasing....the "box of chocolates " syndrome.  ....you never know what you are going to get.  Will the team that beat Dayton (from start to finish)show up  or will it be  the team that struggled against RI    The variable spread for this game is even to 6pts in favor of the Bills.

Let's take a look at the report card and see what we are dealing with.....

...............................SLU..............................StJ.............................................SLU...................................StJ

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D-..................................................A+ 16th ITN..................C-

FG%..........................F+................................F... .................................................A-.................................C-

3P%..........................F..................................D-  ....................................................A+ 14th ITN................D-

FT%...........................F-...4th worst ITN......B+...........................................................................................

Reb............................A+ 15th ITN..............D+.......................................................B....................................D

Change in our grades from last game.

Up.....Off reb  (tot rebs )...Def PPG ....Def 3P%

Also on OFF rebs  which just counts reb from the OFF side ..we are 12.6 /gm which is 3rd ITN  ( 19 last night...which helped generate 26 pts on 2nd chance baskets )

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...38th 

Rebs....French.......62th 

Blks.....French.........81th

PPG....Brown (19.9)...48th

Injury report

2/6/19 Jacobs (shin) and Hankton (shoulder) both questionable for Fri...it is unknown if they will be able to play Fri

2/5/19 Longpre (concussion)  questionable...unclear whether he will be cleared by Fri to play. There are 2 other players who are out for Fri but they were out last game we played them too.

 

WWN2D2W....Stop Brown and Bynum...we stopped Brown last time (9pts)...but Bynum got 18....Top scorer on this team should be held to 14pts....everyone else to single digits. Now here is a strange stat.  St. J is 5th ITN (A+)  for lowest TO rate....and F- in forcing TOs (17th ITN)....It will be important to match them in TOs....Reb ...we should dominate....They have us in FT%....but in like many other games  we need to make it up with volume (draw fouls and make  at  least 60%)...Last St.J game Bess and Wiley had 20 pts and French had a double double....Foreman had only 2 pts in that game...I would like to see 22pts combined out of Wiley and Foreman and another double double from French.

WCGW....We miss the slash...42/31/ 61 ...They take more FTs than us....We have a number of unforced TOs

Bottom line.....Again on paper we win...but only if the team that showed up last night plays...the one with heart....Our offensive numbers are not good but neither are St. J 's...Our defense is way better but we have to play with a sense of urgency....if we play like last night we could win by more than 6....

Go Bills

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I really wish this was a Saturday or a rare Sunday game.  need some days off. Last night I was thinking to myself, the good thing about a Tuesday game means one extra day.  Then I saw we play early friday night.

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Thinking about  what Ford said last night after the game, the answer for what happens now may be dependent on how Ford connects with his players and how successful he is to give them confidence in themselves.

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With a lack of forwards, I think it’s imperitive we play with 4 guards. Having a shooter like Wiley in helps spread the offense and 2 forwards seemed to clutter the inside. From my perspective we did better offensively and we’re up by 20 when we had 1 forward. 

Thatch and Wiley are two great options with unique aspects that affect the game more imo. I would like them to play more and give the usual guys more rest in between games. 

4 guards is very doable in the A10. 

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Personnel update ................the Joeys are down to seven scholarship players.  Anthony Longpre hasn't played since we bopped him in the head in St. Louis.  Kimble remains out.  Once again, Martelli's short bench has killed him.  Charlie Brown remains the A10's leading scorer and we will need Bess at his best on Hawk Hill.  I watched them lose at La Salle last night before our game.  They are now starting Brown, Bynum, Lodge, Edwards and Clover.  Martelli has moved Funk to the bench and still brings GT Holston in as well.

Brown is still Brown.  He forces the game a lot but can make shots from everywhere.  He'll have revenge on his mind come Friday.  Currently averages 19.9 ppg.  Despite being a four-star recruit, Bynum is struggling IMHO.  Without lead PG Kimble, a lot has fallen on the 5'10" freshman.  He's a better driver than spot up shooter and on the short side.  He's second on the team in average at 11.4 but hasn't cleared that number but once (okay twice with 14 and 12) in his last five games.  He shoots in the low 30% range from 3 as do most of the team sans Brown.  Brown is at 37%.  

Lodge is a space occupier and can protect the rim but plays because, well you need five.  Clover is no more than a seventh or eight man on a regular roster.  Funk continues to struggle in a massive sophomore slump.  Holston is streaky.  Holston reminds me of Thatch.  The X-factor right now appears to be 6'7" sophomore Lorenzo Edwards.  Edwards was like Lodge, buried on the bench until the usual spate of Joey injuries.  He did well against us in the first game scoring 8 but last night against La Salle, he went off for 22, shooting 8-of-9 overall and 6-of-6 from three point range. Prior to that, he was 12-of-33 from deep.  Kid has some game in him.  We just cannot allow a secondary option to emerge to help Brown.

Much like us versus Dayton, La Salle exploded out of the gate and the Joeys never recovered.  We need to approach every game like last night ---- dogged determination laced with desperation.  The seven-man lineup will be reciprocated as it was with Dayton over these next four games ---- the Joeys, Geedubya, La Salle and back to Dayton.  Going into the center of the college basketball universe --- Dayton of course --- at 9 and 4 would be huge.

Can we do it?

 

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19 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

With a lack of forwards, I think it’s imperitive we play with 4 guards. Having a shooter like Wiley in helps spread the offense and 2 forwards seemed to clutter the inside. From my perspective we did better offensively and we’re up by 20 when we had 1 forward. 

Thatch and Wiley are two great options with unique aspects that affect the game more imo. I would like them to play more and give the usual guys more rest in between games. 

4 guards is very doable in the A10. 

Obviously we will need to play some 4 guard out of necessity. I thought Dayton did us a favor by not taking advantage of some post ups. Wiley was playing the 4 and they never really went at him.Thatch and Jordan are so strong they can guard bigger guys. 

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TF telling them not to worry in person especially DJ about getting yanked after a boo boo kind of clever seeing as we have 7 players. Seems to have worked this game. His 13 at half was only 2 more than he had in a recent game but disappeared 2nd half. Not so last night.

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5 hours ago, wgstl said:

I really wish this was a Saturday or a rare Sunday game.  need some days off. Last night I was thinking to myself, the good thing about a Tuesday game means one extra day.  Then I saw we play early friday night.

Good rest coming up. We get 4 off days before we play GW next Wed and LAS on Sat, then get a whole week off before the big 2 game road trip against Dayton and VCU

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7 hours ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

With a lack of forwards, I think it’s imperitive we play with 4 guards. Having a shooter like Wiley in helps spread the offense and 2 forwards seemed to clutter the inside. From my perspective we did better offensively and we’re up by 20 when we had 1 forward. 

Thatch and Wiley are two great options with unique aspects that affect the game more imo. I would like them to play more and give the usual guys more rest in between games. 

4 guards is very doable in the A10. 

Not last night. French and DJ pummeled Dayton inside....often playing together in the 2nd half & the offense was great. We’ll see if it continues or if matchups/fouls dictate otherwise.

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16 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Not last night. French and DJ pummeled Dayton inside....often playing together in the 2nd half & the offense was great. We’ll see if it continues or if matchups/fouls dictate otherwise.

The offense was better in the first half though

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1 hour ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

The offense was better in the first half though

SLU scored five more points in the second half, often with French and DJ on the floor simultaneously. How was the offense better in the first half if more points were scored in the second half? 

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6 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

SLU scored five more points in the second half, often with French and DJ on the floor simultaneously. How was the offense better in the first half if more points were scored in the second half? 

our scoring runs were far greater in the first half, and a lot more made ft in the 2nd

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3 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

A win would put us in 3rd? VCU will be the biggest make or break this season. A win over VCU can solidify a top 4 finish 

A win would keep us in 4th atm since its a friday night game. But all 5 teams in front of us are playing Favorable games.

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Just now, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

No favorable games in the A10

O c'mon. yes there is, but doesnt mean you cant lose. 

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9 hours ago, wgstl said:

O c'mon. yes there is, but doesnt mean you cant lose. 

Dav over Mass by 11

Duq over Ford by 2

VCU over St. B by 4

RI  over Day by 1

Rich over GW by 7

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Vegas spread 2 pt in favor of SLU. Expected scores SLU 68.2, S Joe 66.2.

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11 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Vegas spread 2 pt in favor of SLU. Expected scores SLU 68.2, S Joe 66.2.

Home team always gets a 3 point boost as well. 2 points is decent from our track record.... unless that’s just football 

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I'm assuming Hankton is out tonight based on Ford's stated timeframe of 10-14 days, but I wonder if Jacobs will be available.  

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23 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

I'm assuming Hankton is out tonight based on Ford's stated timeframe of 10-14 days, but I wonder if Jacobs will be available.  

My original post had Hankton as questionable...2/6 19....no change as of today

Jacobs is also still questionable but his review date has been updated to today....I think that means he is more questionable.

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22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

My original post had Hankton as questionable...2/6 19....no change as of today

Jacobs is also still questionable but his review date has been updated to today....I think that means he is more questionable.

More probable?

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58 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

I'm assuming Hankton is out tonight based on Ford's stated timeframe of 10-14 days, but I wonder if Jacobs will be available.  

-I wonder if Jacobs is done for the season, just a wonder

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1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

More probable?

I don't know.

If Hankton was questionable on 2/6 and there is no update than it seems his status remains the same..... But on 2/5 Jacob's was also questionable.... Why would you update on 2/8 and say he is still at questionable.... and not do the same with Hankton... Maybe we are trying to confuse St. J.... or Bills fans. 

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Through Isabell's instagram story, I see that Welmer was on the court and taking part in their pre-game practice/walk through today.  Now, obviously, the gameday walk through is a low impact/energy affair and I'm highly suspect that we'll see him play again, but it's good to at least see him being physically active with the team. 

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