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The Bills over Dav by 3


The Wiz

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So close ....yet so far away....

Let's review the game starting with 11.1 seconds  left....Bills were leading by 1 and there was a timeout....Davidson's ball....In the Dav huddle, the Coach is telling the team he wants Gud to take the last shot ....not only because he is Mr. Everything but he is by far the best foul shooter at 81.4%.  He further tells them to take the shot with a few seconds left in case of a miss...so there is a chance for a rebound or to foul The Bills.  Now let's move to the other huddle, where Ford is telling the team....Don't foul...knowing Gud will have the ball and he is an 81.4% FT shooter.....

Now let's move to 5.8 sec left and Gud with the ball outside the arc  and not facing the basket...he has roughly 2. 8 sec  to get set for a 3 (and leave a few seconds left) or to try and get a little closer for a long 2.....Now let's look at the numbers.....

Chances for Dav to win the game with 5.8 sec left....

Shoot a 3.............32.7%

Shoot a long 2....35%

Both of the above numbers would probably be a little lower because he wasn't set yet (rushed) and the final shot (pressure) But we will go with these numbers

1 foul shot ...to tie...81.4%

2 foul shots to win...66.25%

Bottom line ...don't foul....I know Goodwin didn't foul on purpose...but you have to ease up a little bit because the numbers are in our favor if we don't foul....Basically they have 1 chance in 3 of winning if we don't foul and 2 chances in 3 if we do.

Let's move to the final .4 sec...in Goodwin's defense when he came to the line he was shooting 88% for the night....8 of 9.......chances of making 1 shot ...55%....chances of making 2 shots...30%....But...It happens and as a few have said already there were many chances to win during the other 39 min.

Let's see what really happened here.....

From the original post....

 

"WWN2D2W...Stop Mr. Davidson...Gudmundsson...hmm , this looks familiar....He leads the team in  Assts, Rebs, Stls, and is 2nd in scoring....Grady is first....Hold Grady to 13pts. and Gud to 11pts....win the rebound battle...protect the ball ...TO diff  should be close to even....42/31/ 61 ...make this line....Hold Dav to  FG%  under 40 and 3P% under 30.

WCGW....The bad Bills team shows up.... On TOs,  Dav is good at protecting the ball ...last 3 games ..6th ITN ...they are better at protecting the ball and we are we are better at forcing TOs ...based on all the stats TOs should be close to even.....based on the last 3 games they have an advantage of 7/ gm...if we are even we should win....if it is 7 we lose....No more 10%  3 Pt shooting....again assuming a normal Bills slash we should win ...and finally we should win the Reb battle...if we don't,  it could be a problem"

 

Let's start with the good....We dominated the boards....35-24 ....and TOs were even..all good Hold to under 40% FG% and under 30%  3P%...actual 39.5% and 34.5%...I am going to give this a pass...FG% was good and they only made 1 extra 3

The bad.....Stop Gud and Grady....we did stop Grady ....held him to 5 less than the projected amount...but Gud scored an extra 16....net gain 11 pts.    Hey, the guy's a good player  and had a good night...it happens

................Slash  42/ 31/ 61 this projected slash is not some magical formula ...it is The Bills season slash....Actual...34.7/ 27.3 / 65  ....the quote from WCGW..."assuming a normal Bills slash we should win".... there is no excuse for this...it is a low bar and even  with this low bar we can win games....But if you start to go below F,  the reincarnation of John Wooden would not be able to win games. The 3 was much improved from last time (10%) but still 1 shot short...the real problem was we were missing 3 more 2s....those 3 were from the 2ft mark...we probably had more than 3 from that range...we don't have to make them all ...just make a Billiken amount.....Left on the table ...one 3 and three 2s...9pts.

Bottom line....Even with Gud having a hot night  and even with an unnecessary foul at the end and 2 missed FTs also at the end....we should have won this game by 8 pts...and the final 11 seconds wouldn't have mattered.  All we had to do was shoot a normal    Bills slash. The good news is even though we shot poorly  we lost by only 1....to a good team.

Outlook....Is the season over? ...No....because of A-10 parity ...no team has a lock on the conference or any 1 game.. As I said earlier,  we have a chance to win every remaining game....The key word is chance...no game will have big spreads. ..all we have to do is play normal F+/ F / F- (42/31/61) and TO the ball over no more than 12 times and we can beat these teams ...home or away.

The season starts again on Wednesday.

 

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14 hours ago, The Wiz said:

So close ....yet so far away....

Let's review the game starting with 11.1 seconds  left....Bills were leading by 1 and there was a timeout....Davidson's ball....In the Dav huddle, the Coach is telling the team he wants Gud to take the last shot ....not only because he is Mr. Everything but he is by far the best foul shooter at 81.4%.  He further tells them to take the shot with a few seconds left in case of a miss...so there is a chance for a rebound or to foul The Bills.  Now let's move to the other huddle, where Ford is telling the team....Don't foul...knowing Gud will have the ball and he is an 81.4% FT shooter.....

Now let's move to 5.8 sec left and Gud with the ball outside the arc  and not facing the basket...he has roughly 2. 8 sec  to get set for a 3 (and leave a few seconds left) or to try and get a little closer for a long 2.....Now let's look at the numbers.....

Chances for Dav to win the game with 5.8 sec left....

Shoot a 3.............32.7%

Shoot a long 2....35%

Both of the above numbers would probably be a little lower because he wasn't set yet (rushed) and the final shot (pressure) But we will go with these numbers

1 foul shot ...to tie...81.4%

2 foul shots to win...66.25%

Bottom line ...don't foul....I know Goodwin didn't foul on purpose...but you have to ease up a little bit because the numbers are in our favor if we don't foul....Basically they have 1 chance in 3 of winning if we don't foul and 2 chances in 3 if we do.

Let's move to the final .4 sec...in Goodwin's defense when he came to the line he was shooting 88% for the night....8 of 9.......chances of making 1 shot ...55%....chances of making 2 shots...30%....But...It happens and as a few have said already there were many chances to win during the other 39 min.

Let's see what really happened here.....

From the original post....

 

"WWN2D2W...Stop Mr. Davidson...Gudmundsson...hmm , this looks familiar....He leads the team in  Assts, Rebs, Stls, and is 2nd in scoring....Grady is first....Hold Grady to 13pts. and Gud to 11pts....win the rebound battle...protect the ball ...TO diff  should be close to even....42/31/ 61 ...make this line....Hold Dav to  FG%  under 40 and 3P% under 30.

WCGW....The bad Bills team shows up.... On TOs,  Dav is good at protecting the ball ...last 3 games ..6th ITN ...they are better at protecting the ball and we are we are better at forcing TOs ...based on all the stats TOs should be close to even.....based on the last 3 games they have an advantage of 7/ gm...if we are even we should win....if it is 7 we lose....No more 10%  3 Pt shooting....again assuming a normal Bills slash we should win ...and finally we should win the Reb battle...if we don't,  it could be a problem"

 

Let's start with the good....We dominated the boards....35-24 ....and TOs were even..all good Hold to under 40% FG% and under 30%  3P%...actual 39.5% and 34.5%...I am going to give this a pass...FG% was good and they only made 1 extra 3

The bad.....Stop Gud and Grady....we did stop Grady ....held him to 5 less than the projected amount...but Gud scored an extra 16....net gain 11 pts.    Hey, the guy's a good player  and had a good night...it happens

................Slash  42/ 31/ 61 this projected slash is not some magical formula ...it is The Bills season slash....Actual...34.7/ 27.3 / 65  ....the quote from WCGW..."assuming a normal Bills slash we should win".... there is no excuse for this...it is a low bar and even  with this low bar we can win games....But if you start to go below F,  the reincarnation of John Wooden would not be able to win games. The 3 was much improved from last time (10%) but still 1 shot short...the real problem was we were missing 3 more 2s....those 3 were from the 2ft mark...we probably had more than 3 from that range...we don't have to make them all ...just make a Billiken amount.....Left on the table ...one 3 and three 2s...9pts.

Bottom line....Even with Gud having a hot night  and even with an unnecessary foul at the end and 2 missed FTs also at the end....we should have won this game by 8 pts...and the final 11 seconds wouldn't have mattered.  All we had to do was shoot a normal    Bills slash. The good news is even though we shot poorly  we lost by only 1....to a good team.

Outlook....Is the season over? ...No....because of A-10 parity ...no team has a lock on the conference or any 1 game.. As I said earlier,  we have a chance to win every remaining game....The key word is chance...no game will have big spreads. ..all we have to do is play normal F+/ F / F- (42/31/61) and TO the ball over no more than 12 times and we can beat these teams ...home or away.

The season starts again on Wednesday.

 

Your posts are always great but this one is just one of the best with the break downs Wiz thank you so much.

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