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The Bills over Dav by 3


The Wiz

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Hopefully , we got the bad game out of our system. Time to start another 5-1 run.

While the last game damaged our numbers  we remain a B team....just good enough  to tease people. But also close enough that if we could get on a run we could see the Dance.  We need 2 more 5-1 runs. The question is which Bills team will show up the good Bills team that protects the ball and makes 3s or the one that can't hit the side of a barn and has more TOs than a bakery. Last game we were 5th worst in the nation in both 3P%  (10%)  and TOs (23) but also shot 86.4% (19-22) from the FT line. We have now moved above 60% for the first time since early in the season. .... More bizarre  (and  inconsistent numbers)....We are 20th ITN in FTA...which is why FT shooting hasn't killed us this year...we keep shooting till we make it.  In the last game, we were 2nd ITN in rebounding with 54..(Princeton had 55)...think that's impressive...well guess who was #1 in the last 3 games...if you guessed The Bills ...you win the stuffed animal.The point is ...the stats are all over the place....which is why when we play bad it is still close and when we play good it is still close. The only thing consistent about this team is inconsistency.  

So now we face Davidson, a slightly below average team on offense and slightly above on defense...Overall they have a B average ...same as us....Let's see what the report card says......

..............................SLU..............................Dav.............................................SLU..................................Dav

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................C-...............................................A.......................................B+

FG%..........................F+................................C-................................................A......................................B+

3P%..........................F..................................C-.................................................A+...17th ITN...................C+

FT%...........................F-...6th worst ITN......B+ .........................................................

Reb............................A................................C-..................................................B-...................................C+

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 31st

Blks....French.......100th

Rebs....French.......100th

Report card change....

...Up...Off Reb....Def FG%...Def 3P%

...Down...Off FG%...Off 3P%...Def PPG

FT oddity....Of the top 10 worst shooting FT teams at home (we are #4) all 10 shoot better away....8 of those 10 shoot significantly better (9%+)..The Bills are one of those teams at 9%

WWN2D2W...Stop Mr. Davidson...Gudmundsson...hmm , this looks familiar....He leads the team in  Assts, Rebs, Stls, and is 2nd in scoring....Grady is first....Hold Grady to 13pts. and Gud to 11pts....win the rebound battle...protect the ball ...TO diff  should be close to even....42/31/ 61 ...make this line....Hold Dav to  FG%  under 40 and 3P% under 30.

WCGW....The bad Bills team shows up.... On TOs,  Dav is good at protecting the ball ...last 3 games ..6th ITN ...they are better at protecting the ball and we are we are better at forcing TOs ...based on all the stats TOs should be close to even.....based on the last 3 games they have an advantage of 7/ gm...if we are even we should win....if it is 7 we lose....No more 10%  3 Pt shooting....again assuming a normal Bills slash we should win ...and finally we should win the Reb battle...if we don't,  it could be a problem

Bottom line...another close one ...no room for error...if we fail on any of the 3 WCGW items , it can cost us the game....Time to start another win streak.

"The only important statistic is the final score".....Bill Russell

 

 

 

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On the personnel side of the ledger, Grady and Gudmundsson you all know .. or at least heard of.  Grady averages 18 a game; Gudmundsson almost 16.  Keeping both down below that will be key; letting one get their average is okay provided you stop the other and in the games I've seen, that can be done much easier on Gudmundsson than Grady.  Gudmundsson loves to go to his left.  I have seen way too many defenders relax on him thinking that is his off side and it may very well be but as a Euro-kid, he is well trained to use either.  While Grady is a nice all-around player, I see him being a four-year guy at Davidson --- I don't see Ja Morant or Markus Howard traits In this kid to say he's a lock for the NBA right now.  But his consideration for A10 POY is certainly warranted.

The rest of the lineup is mundane to say the least.  Some might rave about the 6'10" Austrian Luke Brajkovic but I still say he is a soft Euro-four.  Yes, he has nice hands, advanced footwork, and all the other traits one sees in Euro-fours over typical smash-mouth American fours but he still prefers the outer edges most of the time.  But you can't sleep on him as he will slide inside and be the rebounding presence Davidson needs -- if allowed.  The backups on the frontline are equally mundane -- Nathan Ekwu and Dusan Kovecevi.  Ekwu has never really recovered from a knee injury from a few years ago and Kovacevic is another Euro-four.  Both are relied upon for about six minutes a game for breathers at best.  Ekwu hasn't played since early January; Kovacevic gets about a bucket a game.  There is no real front line at Davidson this year.

The other two starters are guards as Davidson goes with a four guard lineup.  KiShawn Pritchett and  Peter (Luke) Frampton start and average about 18 a game between them.  But that is deceiving ---- neither has been what I would call consistent to date.  I think Frampton is the highest three-point volume shooter in the A10 right now and by default, makes the most three per game across the A10 as well.  he has attempted 176 field goals this year with 155 of those being threes.  That is 88% of his shots come from behind the line.  He sat out all last year with a torn ACL so his current mobility, while improving, I snot the best.  Essentially, like Dunn-Martin from Duquesne, you cannot give him any space.  Pritchett was counted on to develop this year and run the point but that has been Gudmundsson's job so far.  And Pritchett has launched almost 60% of his shots to date from three.  So both Gudmundsson and Grady can and will drive but then the other two sit on the perimeter for kick outs and bombs.  First man off the bench is another guard, sophomore Carter Collins.  This kid is not bad and usually adds a spark when he enters the game.  Another guy who takes 505 of his shots from three.  In contrast, both Grady and Gudmundsson only launch 42% or so from three and Gudmundsson has more attempts in both FGs and 3FGs but Grady missed four games with a knee issue at the end of the OOC.

Matchups will be interesting.  This has got a four-guard defensive lineup all over it.  I'd start Thatch over Foreman and use Foreman and Hankton to spell French.  French is going to have to chase Brajkovic around but while he does tend to linger on the perimeter, I don't think he can beat French diving to the basket.  However, I think French can do so to him.  Brajkovic reminds me a lot of Vouyoukous.  Bess is going to get Grady.  I'd sic Thatch on Frampton and say don't leave him.  This will put Goodwin on Gudmundsson leaving Isabell to chase Pritchett.  Isabell would get Collins when he is in.  Wiley and Frampton are essentially the same player.  Hankton and Foreman should not be overmatched anywhere on the court.  They don't have an answer for French. 

We must pray that Javon's ankle is fine.  We need another neutralizing game from him and we then need to ensure no one else decides to become a star.  If you harass Frampton into two or three opening misses, he'll fold.  He'll keep shooting, but he'll fold.  Davidson lives by execution and the three point shot but their 3FG% is only 33% and there have been many nights when they have had issues hitting the ocean from the pier. 

Elsewhere Saturday, Dayton goes to Fordham.  Who knows?  I expect the Flyers to bounce back from their home loss to Mason. In a good one, VCU goes to Duquesne.  That is going to be interesting.  I might have to tape that one.  The Bonnies go to Richmond and I am very interested here to kind of see what the Bonnies really are.  Poyser is still out in concussion protocol but they did handle Umass easily earlier this week in Amherst.  Might be another sleeper on the rise in a diluted A10.  The Joeys close out Big Five play against Penn at the Palestra and in the battle of the Georges, Washington visits Mason in a potential trap game ... two DC area schools that don't like each other much.  Sunday Rhodey goes to Umass in a regional rivalry game.  Rooting for Fordham, VCU, Richmond, Dubya and Umass.

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Thanks, Taj Mahal 79 and Wiz. Wiz for his usual fine quantitative analysis, and Taj Mahal 79 for his usual fine qualitative analysis of A10 teams. I like Taj Mahal 79's defensive matchups. This game could go a long way in determining the A10's POY, ie Bess v Grady. I do expect, if his ankle is not a hinderance, Bess will get the better of Grady, just like Josh Fisher used to get the best of a guy named Duane Wade. The one thing I've seen the few times I've watched Davidson is they are fairly disciplined and run McKillop's offense instinctively and not overthinking things. A lot like Rick's boys ran his. Their spacing is impressive and they don't turn the ball over much. Speaking of TO's, I think our TO's are the key for us. We can't have  23, 15, or a 12 TO game here. Got to keep them under double digits. Are you listening Mr.Isabell? Take care of the rock, and it will take care of you. Enough with the careless play. This will likely be closer than it needs to be and could come down to FT's. I am not expecting us to hit 83% again the rest of the year. Nor do I expect us to hit 3's at a 10% clip the rest of the year. Wiley could indeed be a major factor/player in this game.

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Hopefully , we got the bad game out of our system. Time to start another 5-1 run.

While the last game damaged our numbers  we remain a B team....just good enough  to tease people. But also close enough that if we could get on a run we could see the Dance.  We need 2 more 5-1 runs. The question is which Bills team will show up the good Bills team that protects the ball and makes 3s or the one that can't hit the side of a barn and has more TOs than a bakery. Last game we were 5th worst in the nation in both 3P%  (10%)  and TOs (23) but also shot 86.4% (19-22) from the FT line. We have now moved above 60% for the first time since early in the season. .... More bizarre  (and  inconsistent numbers)....We are 20th ITN in FTA...which is why FT shooting hasn't killed us this year...we keep shooting till we make it.  In the last game, we were 2nd ITN in rebounding with 54..(Princeton had 55)...think that's impressive...well guess who was #1 in the last 3 games...if you guessed The Bills ...you win the stuffed animal.The point is ...the stats are all over the place....which is why when we play bad it is still close and when we play good it is still close. The only thing consistent about this team is inconsistency.  

So now we face Davidson, a slightly below average team on offense and slightly above on defense...Overall they have a B average ...same as us....Let's see what the report card says......

..............................SLU..............................Dav.............................................SLU..................................Dav

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................C-...............................................A.......................................B+

FG%..........................F+................................C-................................................A......................................B+

3P%..........................F..................................C-.................................................A+...17th ITN...................C+

FT%...........................F-...6th worst ITN......B+ .........................................................

Reb............................A................................C-..................................................B-...................................C+

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 31st

Blks....French.......100th

Rebs....French.......100th

Report card change....

...Up...Off Reb....Def FG%...Def 3P%

...Down...Off FG%...Off 3P%...Def PPG

FT oddity....Of the top 10 worst shooting FT teams at home (we are #4) all 10 shoot better away....8 of those 10 shoot significantly better (9%+)..The Bills are one of those teams at 9%

WWN2D2W...Stop Mr. Davidson...Gudmundsson...hmm , this looks familiar....He leads the team in  Assts, Rebs, Stls, and is 2nd in scoring....Grady is first....Hold Grady to 13pts. and Gud to 11pts....win the rebound battle...protect the ball ...TO diff  should be close to even....42/31/ 61 ...make this line....Hold Dav to  FG%  under 40 and 3P% under 30.

WCGW....The bad Bills team shows up.... On TOs,  Dav is good at protecting the ball ...last 3 games ..6th ITN ...they are better at protecting the ball and we are we are better at forcing TOs ...based on all the stats TOs should be close to even.....based on the last 3 games they have an advantage of 7/ gm...if we are even we should win....if it is 7 we lose....No more 10%  3 Pt shooting....again assuming a normal Bills slash we should win ...and finally we should win the Reb battle...if we don't,  it could be a problem

Bottom line...another close one ...no room for error...if we fail on any of the 3 WCGW items , it can cost us the game....Time to start another win streak.

"The only important statistic is the final score".....Bill Russell

 

 

 

You and I are on the same page about the 3 5-1 runs.  After the loss to Duq I was thinking 3 more of those and we are in good shape.

It is going to be a cold walk from the parking garage to the Field house and then the Fetz on Saturday.

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PLEASE everyone.   wear the shirt.   it will not kill you.   tell your wife/significant to wear something they can pull this over.   if there isnt a true sea of white the effort is a waste.   if you are deadset on not wearing, do the decent thing and trade your seat with the guy in the top row of the upper deck that would love to wear that shirt and cheer the billikens.   just once be a "crazy fan".  

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25 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said:

This is the game Foreman needs to be benched. Thatch and Bess on Grady/ Loki and game. Who else does Davidson have? We saw without Grady they are nothing. 

This has been thoroughly discussed.  Pay attention.  They have the 3rd and 12th leading scorers in A10.  They have a 37% three point shooter who leads the league in 3 pt attempts and isnt' one of the aforementioned two.  They have the 7th and 14th rebounders in A10.  Their center hits 54% of his shots. 

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24 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

This has been thoroughly discussed.  Pay attention.  They have the 3rd and 12th leading scorers in A10.  They have a 37% three point shooter who leads the league in 3 pt attempts and isnt' one of the aforementioned two.  They have the 7th and 14th rebounders in A10.  Their center hits 54% of his shots. 

 

55 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said:

This is the game Foreman needs to be benched. Thatch and Bess on Grady/ Loki and game. Who else does Davidson have? We saw without Grady they are nothing. 

Foreman plays better off the bench. Him starting has lead to 4 early game turnovers the past 2 games 

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7 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

What is the Billikens' home court advantage worth?  These margins appear to suggest Davidson would be favored on a neutral court.

I think most handicapper's use about 3 pts.(including Vegas)  On my system , every venue has its own value. The Chaifetz has a 4.17 pt advantage.  The median for all teams on my system is 3.65 pts but it varies from 0.32 (Fairleigh Dickinson) to 7.03 (Denver)  The Fetz is worth more to The Bills than the average team's home court advantage.

On a neutral court , this game might be neutral (even) or a slight advantage  (  1/2 to 2 pt fav) to Dav

On big games  or "special" days The Bills advantage might be slightly higher 4.5  to 5 pts....that is not figured into today's game.

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15 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

PLEASE everyone.   wear the shirt.   it will not kill you.   tell your wife/significant to wear something they can pull this over.   if there isnt a true sea of white the effort is a waste.   if you are deadset on not wearing, do the decent thing and trade your seat with the guy in the top row of the upper deck that would love to wear that shirt and cheer the billikens.   just once be a "crazy fan".  

im fired up. LETS GO

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This board is really fortunate to have posters like the Wiz and Taj79 to provide in depth, insightful analysis for every game. Not a whole lot of message boards have that, and with the lack of big media sources pumping our tires all the time, it really helps provide a measuring stick for this Billikens team at any given point in the season. 

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1 hour ago, Spoon-Balls said:

This board is really fortunate to have posters like the Wiz and Taj79 to provide in depth, insightful analysis for every game. Not a whole lot of message boards have that, and with the lack of big media sources pumping our tires all the time, it really helps provide a measuring stick for this Billikens team at any given point in the season. 

Thanks for the props....

You get what I do....Provide a " measuring stick" ...If we are within 3 of the spread ....margin of error it's no big deal....more than that and we are either under performing or over performing.  If we start to trend ...up or down...it usually means something is going on...sometimes visible ...injuries , addition or subtraction off players,  (which relates to depth} or outside conditions.  Sometimes things are not visible ie behind closed doors....the "measuring stick " won't tell you the "what"  but it can tell you something is going right or wrong. 

As you know , I like to use grades as part of the measuring tools. ...It turns abstract data into something that is easily digestible. It also   seems appropriate because we are dealing with  educational institutions that use grades as a way of measure. If I say that we have 14 TOs / gm, it may not be clear what that means ....but if  I tell you  that is a D+ ...you know right away that isn't a great number.  I really like the team grades. Numbers on teams change daily....even if you don't play...because other teams are playing ...your numbers  and rankings change. Whether you are looking at Pomeroy or NET or any of a dozen other ranking systems a slight move can change your ranking dramatically....With parity and 351 teams jammed together.. a stat moves a tenth of a point and your ranking jumps even though you are the same team.  The Bills have been  a B team for weeks ....the numbers have faded recently....but we still are at B.  A loss today might move us down to a B- ...a signal that we are moving away from the Dance and "something " may be happening. 

If The Bills keep their focus...they should win this game....The crowd should help.

Btw , I didn't list it in the original post but the variable spread is 1-3 pts today in favor of the Bills.

Go Bills

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