The Bills Road to The Dance

[The Wiz]

So i have had a number of messages from Bills fans wanting to know if and how we can go to The Dance.

First,  let's start with a few questions that are being asked.  Are we good enough to make it? Can we go to the Dance with one of the worst offenses in D-1? Can our Honor Roll defense make up for  our weak offense? Can you tell me exactly  what do we need to do to make it.

The answer to all those questions is .....YES.

First, let's look at some numbers to see what's really going on. To start with,  there is no getting around the bad offense.  Before every game I put out the report card which grades O & D.  On Offense we have a series of F- s with an occasional D-.   Those are the standard stats  (slash lines) mixed in with some rebounds and a few other assorted items.  For this post , let's try something different. Let's try a different slash line.....FGM/ 3PM / FTM....thesae are The Bills numbers.....23.4 / 5.9 / 14.5...and here our opponents this year....21.8/ 5.8/ 12.8...so despite being an offensive bottomfeeder,  we have managed to outscore our opponent in all 3 sections of the slash. Let's look at some other  stats...the 1st number is The Bills....the 2nd are the opponents....Rebs....36.6-31...Blks 4.3-3.2...Stls....8.1-6.8....TOs 13.5 -14.4.....You get the idea...we are not very efficient but we get the job done on offense.Take FTs for example....there is nobody worse than we are....well,  maybe 1 team....yet in a close game ...in the final minute...we are much better....again, good enough to win.

Hopefully,  this answers at least some of the concerns as to how we can make it with a weak offense.

Now let's look at how we can get to The Dance...

Here are The Dance requirements......24....25...or 26 wins....If you have 24 wins  your chances of making the Dance are 50-50. If you have 25 wins  your chances of making it are 85%....and if you have 26 wins ...100%.....obviosly we are talking about at large bids.  At the beginning of the season in Nov I had us going 9-4 OOC and 14-4   A-10 with 1 win  in the A10 tourney that came out to 24 wins....or a 50-50 chance. As  of today , I am showing us at 15-2-1  in conf with at least 1 win in the A-10 tourney. I have a loss to VCU and to away Dayton...RI is even.If we lose the RI game....and win 1 A-10 tourney game   we finish at 25 wins and will go to the Dance (85%)....if we beat RI  we could finish 16-2 and with 1 A-10 tourney win...26 wins....we are Dancing (100%)

So there you have it ...Yes we are good enough and yes there is a very doable way to get there.

Time for the disclaimer....Many if not all these games will be close....a bad bounce or a bad call could be the difference in any number of games. The good news is we seem to be reslient...we bend but don;t break...a sign of a winning team So yes , there is a long way to go and any number of things can go wrong. ...but right now I would rather be us than any other team in the A-10.

Go Bills.

[Billikenbooster]

Im glad to read this, Wiz.  It seems so simple.  Let's just win the next game, then the next game, etc.  One at a time.  All the old cliche's apply, but I love your analysis, as always.

mhg

[Adman]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

So i have had a number of messages from Bills fans wanting to know if and how we can go to The Dance.

First,  let's start with a few questions that are being asked.  Are we good enough to make it? Can we go to the Dance with one of the worst offenses in D-1? Can our Honor Roll defense make up for  our weak offense? Can you tell me exactly  what do we need to do to make it.

The answer to all those questions is .....YES.

First, let's look at some numbers to see what's really going on. To start with,  there is no getting around the bad offense.  Before every game I put out the report card which grades O & D.  On Offense we have a series of F- s with an occasional D-.   Those are the standard stats  (slash lines) mixed in with some rebounds and a few other assorted items.  For this post , let's try something different. Let's try a different slash line.....FGM/ 3PM / FTM....thesae are The Bills numbers.....23.4 / 5.9 / 14.5...and here our opponents this year....21.8/ 5.8/ 12.8...so despite being an offensive bottomfeeder,  we have managed to outscore our opponent in all 3 sections of the slash. Let's look at some other  stats...the 1st number is The Bills....the 2nd are the opponents....Rebs....36.6-31...Blks 4.3-3.2...Stls....8.1-6.8....TOs 13.5 -14.4.....You get the idea...we are not very efficient but we get the job done on offense.Take FTs for example....there is nobody worse than we are....well,  maybe 1 team....yet in a close game ...in the final minute...we are much better....again, good enough to win.

Hopefully,  this answers at least some of the concerns as to how we can make it with a weak offense.

Now let's look at how we can get to The Dance...

Here are The Dance requirements......24....25...or 26 wins....If you have 24 wins  your chances of making the Dance are 50-50. If you have 25 wins  your chances of making it are 85%....and if you have 26 wins ...100%.....obviosly we are talking about at large bids.  At the beginning of the season in Nov I had us going 9-4 OOC and 14-4   A-10 with 1 win  in the A10 tourney that came out to 24 wins....or a 50-50 chance. As  of today , I am showing us at 15-2-1  in conf with at least 1 win in the A-10 tourney. I have a loss to VCU and to away Dayton...RI is even.If we lose the RI game....and win 1 A-10 tourney game   we finish at 25 wins and will go to the Dance (85%)....if we beat RI  we could finish 16-2 and with 1 A-10 tourney win...26 wins....we are Dancing (100%)

So there you have it ...Yes we are good enough and yes there is a very doable way to get there.

Time for the disclaimer....Many if not all these games will be close....a bad bounce or a bad call could be the difference in any number of games. The good news is we seem to be reslient...we bend but don;t break...a sign of a winning team So yes , there is a long way to go and any number of things can go wrong. ...but right now I would rather be us than any other team in the A-10.

Go Bills.

Thanks a lot for this, TheWiz. Answers a lot of questions. Hope there's nothing significant about NET score that changes the number of victories needed to Dance. But excellent!

I'd go a bit further in saying that in addition to the favorable lines you describe above in our games to come (as it stands now,) that the oddsmakers will agree with you, with the Billikens likely being favored in each of their remaining games except @VCU and @Dayton. 

[slu72]

Lunardi's latest bracket: 

SLU 12 v Auburn 5 in Columbia, SC a dream come true for me

and VCU a play in for an 11 seed

First time I can recall he's had 2 A10 teams in the dance. 

[NextYearBill]

21 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Lunardi's latest bracket: 

SLU 12 v Auburn 5 in Columbia, SC a dream come true for me

and VCU a play in for an 11 seed

First time I can recall he's had 2 A10 teams in the dance. 

salt lake city...

[Taj79]

I want to believe .... but I have a problem with only two or three losses, all on the road, at VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island.  That's why I think tomorrow's game at Duquesne is a harbinger of things to come. I am  not yet sol don this team on the road.  Yes, we beat two dregs in La Salle and Fordham and in the recent past, these are games we most likely lose (we lost at La Salle last year and then to both the year prior).  So I want to see how we do at Duquesne tomorrow night.  I don't think the Dukes are much better than the first two but their record would indicate otherwise.  I think we are looking at a very key test .... which would then put us at 8 and 0 going into Rhode Island.  I'd be thrilled with that for sure.

 

[RiseAndGrind]

So basically every game from here on out is the biggest game of Travis Ford’s tenure at SLU

[Taj79]

I wouldn't say "the biggest game of Ford's tenure" but I would say that with the current state of the A10, and with what folks seem to be concerned with as in making the Dance ... the margin for error in attaining the Dance short of winning in Brooklyn is extremely small as far as the Bills or any other A10 team are concerned.  Just win and you're in.  The only way I see two bids is one team has a very successful regular season, loses in maybe the A10 semi- or finals, and then gets picked to go along with the auto-bid winner.  Right now, I see a few candidates ---- us, VCU and Davidson. 

[SLU_Nick]

I am more worried about Duquense on the road than I am Davidson at home. 

This is going to be their super bowl.  I hope our guys are ready to take the Dukes best punch.

[Old guy]

@Taj79 Well, of course there are multiple A10 candidates trying to get a bid in the NCAA tournament at this time, this is the way it always happens at this stage in the season. This year we happen to be among these candidates which has NOT been the case over the last few years. Just having a chance at getting the brass ring denotes a major improvement for SLU, and possibly, as has been discussed extensively, a significant set of problems for A10. It does not matter if we get invited to the Dance because the competition is worse, or because we are better, or a combo of both. If we get in, however we manage to get in, we should all be very happy.

About Duquesne, they are indeed going to try their best to beat us. It will be an interesting game. I think we can win it, we will see.

[slu72]

2 hours ago, NextYearBill said:

salt lake city...

I saw Columbia and got carried away by emotion. I live in Charleston, so it's a 90 minute drive. Sorry about the misinformation. I don't think I'll be heading to Salt Lake. That is a good little bracket though. MU v Loyola should be a good game as well. And who wouldn't love to see the second game come down to us and Porter.

[Box and Won]

23 hours ago, slu72 said:

And who wouldn't love to see the second game come down to us and Porter.

I'd rather eliminate those slapdicks over at Marquette.

[kshoe]

On 1/21/2019 at 9:20 PM, The Wiz said:

So i have had a number of messages from Bills fans wanting to know if and how we can go to The Dance.

First,  let's start with a few questions that are being asked.  Are we good enough to make it? Can we go to the Dance with one of the worst offenses in D-1? Can our Honor Roll defense make up for  our weak offense? Can you tell me exactly  what do we need to do to make it.

The answer to all those questions is .....YES.

First, let's look at some numbers to see what's really going on. To start with,  there is no getting around the bad offense.  Before every game I put out the report card which grades O & D.  On Offense we have a series of F- s with an occasional D-.   Those are the standard stats  (slash lines) mixed in with some rebounds and a few other assorted items.  For this post , let's try something different. Let's try a different slash line.....FGM/ 3PM / FTM....thesae are The Bills numbers.....23.4 / 5.9 / 14.5...and here our opponents this year....21.8/ 5.8/ 12.8...so despite being an offensive bottomfeeder,  we have managed to outscore our opponent in all 3 sections of the slash. Let's look at some other  stats...the 1st number is The Bills....the 2nd are the opponents....Rebs....36.6-31...Blks 4.3-3.2...Stls....8.1-6.8....TOs 13.5 -14.4.....You get the idea...we are not very efficient but we get the job done on offense.Take FTs for example....there is nobody worse than we are....well,  maybe 1 team....yet in a close game ...in the final minute...we are much better....again, good enough to win.

Hopefully,  this answers at least some of the concerns as to how we can make it with a weak offense.

Now let's look at how we can get to The Dance...

Here are The Dance requirements......24....25...or 26 wins....If you have 24 wins  your chances of making the Dance are 50-50. If you have 25 wins  your chances of making it are 85%....and if you have 26 wins ...100%.....obviosly we are talking about at large bids.  At the beginning of the season in Nov I had us going 9-4 OOC and 14-4   A-10 with 1 win  in the A10 tourney that came out to 24 wins....or a 50-50 chance. As  of today , I am showing us at 15-2-1  in conf with at least 1 win in the A-10 tourney. I have a loss to VCU and to away Dayton...RI is even.If we lose the RI game....and win 1 A-10 tourney game   we finish at 25 wins and will go to the Dance (85%)....if we beat RI  we could finish 16-2 and with 1 A-10 tourney win...26 wins....we are Dancing (100%)

So there you have it ...Yes we are good enough and yes there is a very doable way to get there.

Time for the disclaimer....Many if not all these games will be close....a bad bounce or a bad call could be the difference in any number of games. The good news is we seem to be reslient...we bend but don;t break...a sign of a winning team So yes , there is a long way to go and any number of things can go wrong. ...but right now I would rather be us than any other team in the A-10.

Go Bills.

Wiz, thank you for confirming what many of us have been saying for a while. 25 wins (14-2 in conference) should be fine and 24 wins (3 conference losses) is a toss-up.

To achieve only 2-3 conference losses, we really need to go 8-0 in January. There are too many tough games in February to think we can slip up now and get it back later.

[Box and Won]

8 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Wiz, thank you for confirming what many of us have been saying for a while. 25 wins (14-2 in conference) should be fine and 24 wins (3 conference losses) is a toss-up.

To achieve only 2-3 conference losses, we really need to go 8-0 in January. There are too many tough games in February to think we can slip up now and get it back later.

RealtimeRPI has us going 6-7 for the remainder of the schedule, finishing at 20-11. 

[moytoy12]

1 minute ago, Box and Won said:

RealtimeRPI has us going 6-7 for the remainder of the schedule, finishing at 20-11. 

While I see us doing better than 6-7, it really is tough to predict how we’ll do given that we have played (and struggled) against the bottom of the conference. 

[Box and Won]

1 minute ago, moytoy12 said:

While I see us doing better than 6-7, it really is tough to predict how we’ll do given that we have played (and struggled) against the bottom of the conference. 

Basically, they have us losing every road game and winning every home game.  

Tonight will be tough.  VCU will likely be a loss.  Bonaventure is always a hard place to win.  I don't know how I feel about our chances of winning at Dayton.  GW should be a win.  URI and St. Joseph's are the other remaining road games.

[David King]

46 minutes ago, kshoe said:

Wiz, thank you for confirming what many of us have been saying for a while. 25 wins (14-2 in conference) should be fine and 24 wins (3 conference losses) is a toss-up.

To achieve only 2-3 conference losses, we really need to go 8-0 in January. There are too many tough games in February to think we can slip up now and get it back later.

There are actually 18 conference games, plus one to three A10 tournament games. 9-4 from here on is definitely doable. That's 23-8. Then, two wins in the A10 tournament, but a loss in the championship game puts the Bills at 25-9. Is that still an 85% chance of going to the Big Dance?

[kshoe]

9 minutes ago, David King said:

There are actually 18 conference games, plus one to three A10 tournament games. 9-4 from here on is definitely doable. That's 23-8. Then, two wins in the A10 tournament, but a loss in the championship game puts the Bills at 25-9. Is that still an 85% chance of going to the Big Dance?

You are correct. I meant 16-2 in conference.

I don't think there is any scenario where we lose 4 games in conference and can still expect an at-large. I'd put it at 20% or less. Wiz would seem to think along the same thing as he didn't even talk about a scenario where we lose 4 conference games.

[kshoe]

47 minutes ago, Box and Won said:

RealtimeRPI has us going 6-7 for the remainder of the schedule, finishing at 20-11. 

That seems overly negative. Pomeroy doesn't think highly of SLU as he has us ranked 90th, but even he expects us to go 8-5 down the stretch.

[David King]

51 minutes ago, kshoe said:

You are correct. I meant 16-2 in conference.

I don't think there is any scenario where we lose 4 games in conference and can still expect an at-large. I'd put it at 20% or less. Wiz would seem to think along the same thing as he didn't even talk about a scenario where we lose 4 conference games.

 

On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 10:20 PM, The Wiz said:

 

Here are The Dance requirements......24....25...or 26 wins....If you have 24 wins  your chances of making the Dance are 50-50. If you have 25 wins  your chances of making it are 85%....and if you have 26 wins ...100%.....obviosly we are talking about at large bids.  At the beginning of the season in Nov I had us going 9-4 OOC and 14-4   A-10 with 1 win  in the A10 tourney that came out to 24 wins....or a 50-50 chance. As  of today , I am showing us at 15-2-1  in conf with at least 1 win in the A-10 tourney. I have a loss to VCU and to away Dayton...RI is even.If we lose the RI game....and win 1 A-10 tourney game   we finish at 25 wins and will go to the Dance (85%)....if we beat RI  we could finish 16-2 and with 1 A-10 tourney win...26 wins....we are Dancing (100%)

 

Originally The Wiz had the Bills going 14-4 in conference play with one win in the A-10 tournament. That's 24-9. According to Wiz, that gives us a 50/50 chance. So, going 14-4 in conference, and winning two in A-10 tournament means 25-9, and must be better than 50/50 chance of dancing.

I agree with you. 16-2, or even 15-3 in conference gives the Bills a great chance. But, I still think 14-4 with 2 A10 tourney wins probably gets them in.

 

 

[RiseAndGrind]

Lol well this was fun while it lasted 

[Billiken Rich]

Bills dancing a jig in the dancing with the stars final...…..and that's Bess's only chance to dance.....

[brianstl]

I fought that was 5 seconds before he asked fo time

[Bonner89]

6 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

Lol well this was fun while it lasted 

Classic case of counting your chickens before they hatch.

 

[billiken_roy]

I think it is terrible a troll like yourself is using a moniker of the greatest billiken ever.