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The Bills over Duq by 4


The Wiz

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Since we did what we were supposed to do the last game  our numbers pretty much stayed the same. We continue as a B team....We are trending as a B+ team. The spread variable is tight this game.... Bills by 3-4 pts....so the computer seems to be fairly certain in this case. Duq comes up as a C team but as  you can see by the spread this will be a close game....which means no room for error.  Duq is an average team...however they are just good enough that if we stumble they can beat us.

Let's see what the report card looks like

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..............................SLU.............................Duq.............................................SLU.................................Duq

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................C.............................................A+...16th ITN...................C+

FG%..........................F+................................D+............................................A.......................................C-

3P%..........................D-................................D..............................................A.........................................D-

FT%...........................F-...2nd worst ITN......C+ .........................................................

Reb............................A-...............................C..................................................C+...................................D+

Plus we are 10th ITN in Def efficiency

Top 100 ITN

Stls.....Goodwin ......39th

............Carry................4th

Rebs......French.............94th

Asst.......Carry...............34th

FG%........Hughes............19th....66.7%

 

Bills report card summary

Up....Off 3P%.....Def FG%....Def 3P%

Down....Off FG%....Def Reb

 

WWN2D2W......Their big 3 are Hughes , Williams and Carry.....Only 1 of these should score in double figures and then no more than 12 pts....Rebounds... we need to dominate the boards.....Duq  is susceptible to TOs...Play aggressive D.....Slash....42/32/ 60....important to make the line....They will give us 3s....shoot    and    make 3s

WCGW.....While they can turn the ball over ....they make up for it by creating opponent TOs....18th ITN....protect the ball especially against Carry... 4th in steals....If TOs start to pile up this game can turn against us quickly....protect the ball. Also shooting extra 3s... we could go cold...take good shots.

Bottom line..... Duq slightly better offense than us....,The Bills much better defense...we should win.... no room for error...Let's keep it a perfect Jan

 

 

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8 hours ago, almaman said:

I prefer we have the Wiz to ourselves. Boy hope you're right this game. It scares me. If that coach stays he will build them into one of the better teams in A-10.

Every game scares me however the offense we run is improving with finding the open man with improved passing.

I think there are some good new coaches in the A10 and I see the A10 trending upward until bigger programs come poaching again.

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The only scouting note I'll add to this is Duquesne's pace.  Duquesne is not a halfcourt team.  From what I've seen, they like to turn up the pressure and run.  In some games, their halftime deficits require this.  And they don't run for layups, rather threes.  Against Longwood (who?) they were down 15 at half at home and then outscored them by 24 in the second half.  At Davidson,they faded down the stretch when Davidson dictated play and turned it into a full shot clock possession kind of half.  They are on NBC SN today at 4/3 EST/CST at Geedubya where they are favored by 3 with a 62% chance to win.

Duquesne has 11 guys averaging at least 10 mpg.  So they go deep but are not all skilled.  Williams and Carry like to launch and both are at about 38% from three.  Surprisingly, Mizzou transfer Frankie Hughes is their high volume three point shooter.  Half of Williams shots are threes.  Michael Hughes is their only real front court player.  Dambrot has five guys 6'10" or better but none are factors and all are freshmen.  But can you say Tydus Verhoeven?  That stiff had one game last year --------- against us.

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Just go into every game thinking it's going to be a nail biter and you won't be disappointed when the Bills haven't blown anyone out w/ 7 minutes left. I find scotch helps a lot in watching these games. Unfortunately, or fortunately, this game has no TV, so I'll follow the live stats and GDT. 

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1 minute ago, ARon said:

Anyone else feel like this has “trap game” written all over it?

The only game I've really felt that about this season was SIUC, and I felt that strongly as soon as the schedule was released. I don't really think of conference road games as trap games usually. I guess they feel more like that when the conference is so down and when we'll be a favorite almost every night.

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6 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

There isn’t a single trap game in conference.

Agree. Coach will have TeamBlue prepared for battle.  Ignoring the potential of a conference team on their home court, one that is tied for third in the league and 10-2 at home, won't happen.  

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Duquesne isn't bad. 13-5, 10-2 at home, 4-game winning streak. They haven't beaten anyone good, they've got one bad loss (NJIT), and the other four losses are Pitt, ND, Penn State, and Davidson. They're not a good shooting team, although they hit about 72% from the line. They turn it over a little more than we do, but they play faster, too.

Basically, this is another road game that will be ugly and close, and that we in no way can take for granted.

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56 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

"Sincere Carry" literally translates to "intentional turnover".

Bills by 18

Beating Rammer to the punch. "That was a sincere carry, Earl, and the refs didn't call it."

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On 1/19/2019 at 9:49 PM, The Wiz said:

 

WCGW.....While they can turn the ball over ....they make up for it by creating opponent TOs....18th ITN....protect the ball especially against Carry... 4th in steals....If TOs start to pile up this game can turn against us quickly....protect the ball. Also shooting extra 3s... we could go cold...take good shots.

 

I think I nailed it in the original post in the What Can Go Wrong section .....

This was a bizarre game.... easy to analyze, but still bizarre....We had 23 TOs...ball game over.  You can't make 20+ TOs and win...it's like giving up 10 walks in a baseball game.and expecting to win...no way. .....This is one of the highest TO rates that I can remember...based on an average Bills night ...that is 10 extra TOs...which translates to an extra 20 pts in the spread. . The amazing thing about this game was that we only lost by 4....But wait there's more...3pt shooting 2-20....10%...based on an average Bills night ...we should have had 4 more 3s....12 pts lost...Now reread the WCGW section again

But the Bizzaro World didn't end there...Imagine holding the other team to 20.7% from the arc.. a great night on defense. Yet they had 4 more 3PM than we did......we lost the battle at the arc holding them to about  1 in 5.

The weirdness continued at the FT line...the 2nd worst team ITN shoots 86.5% (A+)....19-22 great news but we lose that battle too because even though Duq has a bad night at the charity stripe (65.8%)....they have 25 FTM and beat us by 6 pts at the line on our best FT night.

We were able to stay close because we crushed them on  Rebs...54-31....

And yet even with record setting TOs and terrible 3P shooting...if we could have made an extra couple of 3s near the end and boosted our 3P% to a bad 20% ....we would have won the game.

Chalk it up to a bad night....next game.

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