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The Bills over St. J by 13


The Wiz

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I’m not as worried about Jacobs as some others are. That Ford seems determined to play him in close games indicates that 1) he’s performing well in practice and 2) The staff thinks he has potential moving forward.

As Moy said, Jacobs needs minutes where he’s free to make some plays. I doubt he’ll have any games this year where he really impresses, but he’s the type of player that could improve leaps and bounds in an offseason. 

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The House That Rick Built - Episode 5

- SLU hoops news

- Fordham recap

- St. Joe's Preview

 

Click below for the latest episode, and if you have any topics you would like us to discuss, questions you want answer, feel free to post them on here and we will answer those within the next episode:

 

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On 1/16/2019 at 11:18 AM, The Wiz said:

More important than the spread this game is the spread variable....It is 8-18....This means the Bills (B) can win anywhere from 8-18 and it will be " normal". In addition , it means much of the game should be played in the 8-18 range...Scoring above 18 is considered a blowout and doesn't help our numbers  Winning within the spread also doesn't help because that is what we were supposed to do. And a win below 8 pts hurts our numbers. So in a way , this will be like playing a cream puff team....but it isn't a cream puff ...it just looks like it.   St. Joe comes in at C+ so that is the 1st warning sign...second is they just beat one of the A-10 powers Davidson.   On the positive side, they don't look very good on paper  as you will see in the report card.  However , they have an Ace up their sleeve which we will talk about in a moment.  Btw,  for the gamblers there may be an opportunity here in that my guesstimate of the Vegas spread is that it will be more conservative than mine ...probably in the 7pt area.

First, let's take a look at the report card.....

..............................SLU.............................St. J.............................................SLU.................................St. J

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D.............................................A+...18th ITN...................C-

FG%..........................D-................................F+...............................................B+...................................C-

3P%..........................F+................................D+...............................................A-.................................F+

FT%...........................F-...2nd worst ITN......B+ .........................................................

Reb............................A-...............................D..................................................B-...................................D

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 32nd

Blks....French.....99th

PPG...Brown...48th... 19.6

 

Offense...FG% down...3P % up

Defense...3P%  up

This game will be about 2 poor offenses struggling against each other to make shots. They will let us make 3s ...the question is can we make them...if the answer is yes then we can head to the higher end of the spread.  We have the better D ...so we should win the game.

Injury report...

Hankston....1/15/19...Questionable...Battling a foot injury and it is uncertain if it will deter him from suiting up against St. Joe

Welmer ...1/9/19 ...Out indefinitely...Fractured foot

Kimble......1/14/19...Out indefinitely...Hand...2nd leading scorer

Oliva.........1/14/19...Out for season...knee

Like us St. J is short handed..one other player is ineligible 

WWN2D2W...Stop Charlie Brown...perhaps put Snoopy in to guard him...hold him to 15pts...Clover will be the sub for Kimble...can be a threat..scored 18  against Davidson...hold him to 12.....Rebound ...We are strong ...they are weak...dominate the boards....Minimum  slash 42//31/ 60

WCGW...I mentioned in the opening paragraph... a wild card that St. J has...they don't turn the ball over...they are 3rd in the nation in TOs (9.4)...this is what keeps them in games that they shouldn't be able to win.  What Can Go Wrong is the TO differential....if we have a diff of more than 5 , it could be a problem...So if St J comes in at 9 ...we can't have more than 14...The good news is that St. J is one of the worst teams (F)  in forcing TOs....so that TO diff should be close...I see no reason why we couldn't be even against them given our ability to force errors..

Bottom line.... Offenses the same ...Our defense is better... we win...They don't make mistakes but they don't cause mistakes...The only way we have a problem is if we start making unforced errors.

If we don't beat ourselves,  then St. J won't beat us.

Let's make it 5-0...Go Bills

 

A nod to Isabel who tried to make The Wiz spread....for those who missed it ..The Bills had an 11 pt  lead with 7 seconds left in the game and Isabel took and made a shot which gave the Bills a 13 pt lead ...and led to a mini brawl...hence forth to be known as The Wiz Brawl. On another note, I mentioned that this might be a good opportunity for the gambler's... due to the big difference between me and Vegas...It was.

On to the game review....,

I started off mentioning  that St. Joe didn't look very good on paper...this was confirmed on the floor. Next we talked about  2 poor offenses struggling against one another....but SJ  would let us make 3s...the question was... would we be able to sink them?....the answer was yes...

I said the offenses were the same ...our defense was better....it was....and that was the winning edge in this game....We held them to....29.5/ 20 / 79...it's true,  SJ was not a very good team but this was still an outstanding defensive effort( holding SJ to really low numbers) and was the difference in the game. Let me digress for a moment to our slash...the only fly in the ointment of a good game and effort.....38.6/ 37.9/56.5...the disturbing thing about this slash is the 1st 2 numbers are to close together.....breaking it down a little bit more....we were 11-28 from 2P range and 11-29 from 3P range...or almost identical...This break's the first rule of Wiz basketball....closer is easier.  It was OK tonight against a weak offensive team but this won't work against better shooting teams even with great defense. We need to do better inside the arc...especially on 2 footers and breakaways. Rant over

WWN2D2W....Stop Brown & Clover...projected pts...15 & 12...actual....9 & 6...excellent....out rebound them ...yes...44-40...I thought it should have been a larger reb spread but good enough.

And finally their Ace in the hole...TOs...The projected was SJ 9.... Bills 14...with no more than a 5 differential.....Actual.....SJ 9 ...Bills 11...great effort ...we hung with the 3rd ranked team  in the nation on TOs

Finally..."if we don't beat ourselves, then SJ won't be able to beat us".......We didn't and they didn't.

Tip o' the cap to French...Double double...5th of the season...and to the 50% FG club....Bess and Wiley...6-12 and French...5-10...and Wiley and Bess did it from 3 also...6-11 and 5-10

Let's keep the perfect Jan going....The Wiz's crystal ball doesn't see any reason we can't.

 

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27 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

A nod to Isabel who tried to make The Wiz spread....for those who missed it ..The Bills had an 11 pt  lead with 7 seconds left in the game and Isabel took and made a shot which gave the Bills a 13 pt lead ...and led to a mini brawl...hence forth to be known as The Wiz Brawl. On another note, I mentioned that this might be a good opportunity for the gambler's... due to the big difference between me and Vegas...It was.

On to the game review....,

I started off mentioning  that St. Joe didn't look very good on paper...this was confirmed on the floor. Next we talked about  2 poor offenses struggling against one another....but SJ  would let us make 3s...the question was... would we be able to sink them?....the answer was yes...

I said the offenses were the same ...our defense was better....it was....and that was the winning edge in this game....We held them to....29.5/ 20 / 79...it's true,  SJ was not a very good team but this was still an outstanding defensive effort( holding SJ to really low numbers) and was the difference in the game. Let me digress for a moment to our slash...the only fly in the ointment of a good game and effort.....38.6/ 37.9/56.5...the disturbing thing about this slash is the 1st 2 numbers are to close together.....breaking it down a little bit more....we were 11-28 from 2P range and 11-29 from 3P range...or almost identical...This break's the first rule of Wiz basketball....closer is easier.  It was OK tonight against a weak offensive team but this won't work against better shooting teams even with great defense. We need to do better inside the arc...especially on 2 footers and breakaways. Rant over

WWN2D2W....Stop Brown & Clover...projected pts...15 & 12...actual....9 & 6...excellent....out rebound them ...yes...44-40...I thought it should have been a larger reb spread but good enough.

And finally their Ace in the hole...TOs...The projected was SJ 9.... Bills 14...with no more than a 5 differential.....Actual.....SJ 9 ...Bills 11...great effort ...we hung with the 3rd ranked team  in the nation on TOs

Finally..."if we don't beat ourselves, then SJ won't be able to beat us".......We didn't and they didn't.

Tip o' the cap to French...Double double...5th of the season...and to the 50% FG club....Bess and Wiley...6-12 and French...5-10...and Wiley and Bess did it from 3 also...6-11 and 5-10

Let's keep the perfect Jan going....The Wiz's crystal ball doesn't see any reason we can't.

 

 

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10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A nod to Isabel who tried to make The Wiz spread....for those who missed it ..The Bills had an 11 pt  lead with 7 seconds left in the game and Isabel took and made a shot which gave the Bills a 13 pt lead ...and led to a mini brawl...hence forth to be known as The Wiz Brawl. On another note, I mentioned that this might be a good opportunity for the gambler's... due to the big difference between me and Vegas...It was.

On to the game review....,

I started off mentioning  that St. Joe didn't look very good on paper...this was confirmed on the floor. Next we talked about  2 poor offenses struggling against one another....but SJ  would let us make 3s...the question was... would we be able to sink them?....the answer was yes...

I said the offenses were the same ...our defense was better....it was....and that was the winning edge in this game....We held them to....29.5/ 20 / 79...it's true,  SJ was not a very good team but this was still an outstanding defensive effort( holding SJ to really low numbers) and was the difference in the game. Let me digress for a moment to our slash...the only fly in the ointment of a good game and effort.....38.6/ 37.9/56.5...the disturbing thing about this slash is the 1st 2 numbers are to close together.....breaking it down a little bit more....we were 11-28 from 2P range and 11-29 from 3P range...or almost identical...This break's the first rule of Wiz basketball....closer is easier.  It was OK tonight against a weak offensive team but this won't work against better shooting teams even with great defense. We need to do better inside the arc...especially on 2 footers and breakaways. Rant over

WWN2D2W....Stop Brown & Clover...projected pts...15 & 12...actual....9 & 6...excellent....out rebound them ...yes...44-40...I thought it should have been a larger reb spread but good enough.

And finally their Ace in the hole...TOs...The projected was SJ 9.... Bills 14...with no more than a 5 differential.....Actual.....SJ 9 ...Bills 11...great effort ...we hung with the 3rd ranked team  in the nation on TOs

Finally..."if we don't beat ourselves, then SJ won't be able to beat us".......We didn't and they didn't.

Tip o' the cap to French...Double double...5th of the season...and to the 50% FG club....Bess and Wiley...6-12 and French...5-10...and Wiley and Bess did it from 3 also...6-11 and 5-10

Let's keep the perfect Jan going....The Wiz's crystal ball doesn't see any reason we can't.

 

Hey Wiz, I really love your write-ups for every game. About your rant, I'm genuinely asking your opinion and what your numbers say: is it possible at all that our stat line was so distorted because, with the zone we saw (and will continue to see for the foreseeable future) the looks from 3 are just so much cleaner than anything we get closer in? I know we've had more than our fair share of missed bunnies, but a lot of the shots we got from the perimeter last night were wide open. And with teams packing it in on us defensively, it's almost impossible to get any sort of uncontested look inside. Anyway, like I said, I always really appreciate your contributions. Thanks again.

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29 minutes ago, PinkMaleBillikensJersey said:

Hey Wiz, I really love your write-ups for every game. About your rant, I'm genuinely asking your opinion and what your numbers say: is it possible at all that our stat line was so distorted because, with the zone we saw (and will continue to see for the foreseeable future) the looks from 3 are just so much cleaner than anything we get closer in? I know we've had more than our fair share of missed bunnies, but a lot of the shots we got from the perimeter last night were wide open. And with teams packing it in on us defensively, it's almost impossible to get any sort of uncontested look inside. Anyway, like I said, I always really appreciate your contributions. Thanks again.

That has been happening all year and especially when Gordon and French were both in there and we were missing perimeter shots then also.  The difference last night was Wiley was hot. 

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5 hours ago, PinkMaleBillikensJersey said:

Hey Wiz, I really love your write-ups for every game. About your rant, I'm genuinely asking your opinion and what your numbers say: is it possible at all that our stat line was so distorted because, with the zone we saw (and will continue to see for the foreseeable future) the looks from 3 are just so much cleaner than anything we get closer in? I know we've had more than our fair share of missed bunnies, but a lot of the shots we got from the perimeter last night were wide open. And with teams packing it in on us defensively, it's almost impossible to get any sort of uncontested look inside. Anyway, like I said, I always really appreciate your contributions. Thanks again.

In the original post, I mentioned that SJ was going to give us open shots from 3...the question was could we make them....Fortunately , the answer was yes. We took 3s because that's what they gave them to us us....we took 29 twos and 28 threes. I was ok with that....not every team that plays zone will give us the 3s....SJ was  and is bad at defending the 3.

My rant in the above post was on missed 2s....we left  between 8 and 12 pts on the table from missed layups , blown fast breaks and bunnies.

In  another thread on the board there is the discussion of the NET....and all the variables that go into it....I am not a fan of efficiency for reasons mention in that thread....leads to running up the score in games....My feeling is that variable  will be changed. With that said , we need to become more efficient offensively.....Not because it will pad  our NCAA stats....but to win games. We are a bad team in Off efficiency...D-.....One of the reasons we can't break games open is because of the inefficiency. Conversely , we are one of the best in defensive efficiency....A+....10th in the nation.....which is why we are 14-4 and in every game.

We just need to cleanup the offense a bit and it will make a huge difference.

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6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

In the original post, I mentioned that SJ was going to give us open shots from 3...the question was could we make them....Fortunately , the answer was yes. We took 3s because that's what they gave them to us us....we took 29 twos and 28 threes. I was ok with that....not every team that plays zone will give us the 3s....SJ was  and is bad at defending the 3.

My rant in the above post was on missed 2s....we left  between 8 and 12 pts on the table from missed layups , blown fast breaks and bunnies.

In  another thread on the board there is the discussion of the NET....and all the variables that go into it....I am not a fan of efficiency for reasons mention in that thread....leads to running up the score in games....My feeling is that variable  will be changed. With that said , we need to become more efficient offensively.....Not because it will pad  our NCAA stats....but to win games. We are a bad team in Off efficiency...D-.....One of the reasons we can't break games open is because of the inefficiency. Conversely , we are one of the best in defensive efficiency....A+....10th in the nation.....which is why we are 14-4 and in every game.

We just need to cleanup the offense a bit and it will make a huge difference.

Thanks Wiz, totally agree. I also noticed St. Joe's pretty much tripled-teamed French in the post at times. If Bess/Wiley/Hankton et al can start keeping teams honest, I feeling like our 2-point efficiency should go up by default from a cleaner lane. I guess it remains to get seen, but I'm hopeful that last night's game is a sign of things to come when we're healthy. Thanks again for all your hard work.

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