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The Bills over St. J by 13


The Wiz

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More important than the spread this game is the spread variable....It is 8-18....This means the Bills (B) can win anywhere from 8-18 and it will be " normal". In addition , it means much of the game should be played in the 8-18 range...Scoring above 18 is considered a blowout and doesn't help our numbers  Winning within the spread also doesn't help because that is what we were supposed to do. And a win below 8 pts hurts our numbers. So in a way , this will be like playing a cream puff team....but it isn't a cream puff ...it just looks like it.   St. Joe comes in at C+ so that is the 1st warning sign...second is they just beat one of the A-10 powers Davidson.   On the positive side, they don't look very good on paper  as you will see in the report card.  However , they have an Ace up their sleeve which we will talk about in a moment.  Btw,  for the gamblers there may be an opportunity here in that my guesstimate of the Vegas spread is that it will be more conservative than mine ...probably in the 7pt area.

First, let's take a look at the report card.....

..............................SLU.............................St. J.............................................SLU.................................St. J

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D.............................................A+...18th ITN...................C-

FG%..........................D-................................F+...............................................B+...................................C-

3P%..........................F+................................D+...............................................A-.................................F+

FT%...........................F-...2nd worst ITN......B+ .........................................................

Reb............................A-...............................D..................................................B-...................................D

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 32nd

Blks....French.....99th

PPG...Brown...48th... 19.6

 

Offense...FG% down...3P % up

Defense...3P%  up

This game will be about 2 poor offenses struggling against each other to make shots. They will let us make 3s ...the question is can we make them...if the answer is yes then we can head to the higher end of the spread.  We have the better D ...so we should win the game.

Injury report...

Hankston....1/15/19...Questionable...Battling a foot injury and it is uncertain if it will deter him from suiting up against St. Joe

Welmer ...1/9/19 ...Out indefinitely...Fractured foot

Kimble......1/14/19...Out indefinitely...Hand...2nd leading scorer

Oliva.........1/14/19...Out for season...knee

Like us St. J is short handed..one other player is ineligible 

WWN2D2W...Stop Charlie Brown...perhaps put Snoopy in to guard him...hold him to 15pts...Clover will be the sub for Kimble...can be a threat..scored 18  against Davidson...hold him to 12.....Rebound ...We are strong ...they are weak...dominate the boards....Minimum  slash 42//31/ 60

WCGW...I mentioned in the opening paragraph... a wild card that St. J has...they don't turn the ball over...they are 3rd in the nation in TOs (9.4)...this is what keeps them in games that they shouldn't be able to win.  What Can Go Wrong is the TO differential....if we have a diff of more than 5 , it could be a problem...So if St J comes in at 9 ...we can't have more than 14...The good news is that St. J is one of the worst teams (F)  in forcing TOs....so that TO diff should be close...I see no reason why we couldn't be even against them given our ability to force errors..

Bottom line.... Offenses the same ...Our defense is better... we win...They don't make mistakes but they don't cause mistakes...The only way we have a problem is if we start making unforced errors.

If we don't beat ourselves,  then St. J won't beat us.

Let's make it 5-0...Go Bills

 

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Taking the points again ..... the issue to me is match ups.  The only 'banger' the Joeys have is Markell Lodge.  And he's only playing because of the injuries to Oliva and Kimble and because Funk and Longpre, two Euro-fours, are not shooting well with volume.  Their percentages seem to li e... 33% for Funk and 40% for Longpre ... but they just haven't produced to date.  With Kimble gone, Funk is first on the team in attempts with 89.  Longpre doesn't shoot much but half of his attempts are also threes. 

Figuring on Bess getting Brown.  Goodwin will likely get Clover.  Isabell draws Bynum.  I would guess Foreman on Funk and then French on Longpre but both Funk and Longpre will draw the bigs out, opening driving lanes for Bynum and Brown.  I'm curious to see if Clover can do anything close to what he did last night.  Especially on the road.

I don't want us to be the thing that cures what ails Longpre or Funk.  Holston wasn't bad at USF last year, averaging just under 10 ppg.  Don't want to host his coming out party either.  No way we beat anybody by 13. 

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31 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I just wonder if you are all aware that St. J beat Davidson last night by 1 point. We should win this game, and I think we will, but we need to go into this game knowing that St. J is not a total pushover. We must play like we mean to win.

old guy just intrigued that you asked the above as it was mentioned in a couple of threads since last night.   curious on how you approach the board?  do you just pick and choose threads based on titles or authors?   myself i read everything current before i ever post.   but just curious how you approach such?

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

WWN2D2W...Stop Charlie Brown...perhaps put Snoopy in to guard him...hold him to 15pts...Clover will be the sub for Kimble...can be a threat..scored 18  against Davidson...hold him to 12.....Rebound ...We are strong ...they are weak...dominate the boards....Minimum  slash 42//31/ 60

 

Everybody knows that Charlie Brown's kryptonite is the Little Redhaired Girl.

 

The wildcard last night for St. Joes was the 3-point ball.  They hit some big threes to stay in the game.  Also, they made their FTs.  Of course, they won't have the comforts of the Hagan Arena so I expect poorer shooting Friday.  Defend the 3!

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

old guy just intrigued that you asked the above as it was mentioned in a couple of threads since last night.   curious on how you approach the board?  do you just pick and choose threads based on titles or authors?   myself i read everything current before i ever post.   but just curious how you approach such?

I read the board here and there, and have a lot of people on ignore. It is entirely possible that I will not read or see something posted somewhere in the board.

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32 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Does anyone remember the worst turnover machine guard we ever had?

one hint - he was the pitiful Jordair Jett.

the best thing about most freshmen guards is they become Sophomores.

I wouldnt be so concerned with Jacobs if the turnovers were due to him being over aggressive or trying to do too much but instead its like hes playing scared and just making lazy passes.  It would be nice if he could step up this year.  

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24 minutes ago, almaman said:

Big hint, hope your not a med school doctor.

Obviously you can’t diagnose sarcasm. Jett, as a freshman, averaged 2.4 assists and 2.5 turnovers in 24 mpg, and was a sketchy outside shooter. By his senior year he was the best guard in the conference.

The main reason Jett became dominant was accelerated development due to KMs suspension. Maher us was forced to play him. Let’s hope Jacobs can show a similar ascent.

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21 minutes ago, Westy03 said:

I wouldnt be so concerned with Jacobs if the turnovers were due to him being over aggressive or trying to do to much but instead its like hes playing scared and just making lazy passes.  It would be nice if he could step up this year.  

It may have already been said, but when Jacobs picked the guys pocket at the top of that key and then ran the break perfectly....only to have isabell blow the open lay up....that was really unfortunate.  I have a feeling that Jacobs is one of those guys that needs some good things to happen so more good things can happen 

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20 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said:

Jacobs will take Isabells minutes next year if he stays. He was touted along with Thatch as one of the best athletes in the A10

jacobs or yuri.   one is likely to step in.

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Jacobs seems like a player with one gear right now, and it’s a bit too fast for his skill level and lacks any nuance. When he attacks the bucket you can see his athleticism, but he struggles because he doesn’t know how to slow down for half a step to throw the defender off balance. And then on his passes, he tries going full speed, but doesn’t pass fake or do anything to make the defender uncertain before he throws the ball, leading to easy steals.

Great guards are the ones that can change pace and keep defenders guessing. Being able to beat everyone on athleticism alone in high school is probably why Jacobs doesn’t have this yet. The good news is that it is something you can learn. 

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What Jacobs (and this team) needs is a blowout win.  Jacobs needs the opportunity to play where he can be aggressive without worrying about whether one bad play will get him yanked or lose the game for us.  He needs some time to build confidence.  For example, he looked most relaxed and effective at the end of the App State game when the game was already decided.  He needs a few of those opportunities to become a more confident player. 

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