Question For TheWiz

[Adman]

In the last couple of weeks I recall you posted something about if the Billikens kept up their consistency they had a 40% chance of either winning the A10 or making the NCAA tournament. I can't remember the exact prediction you were making. I looked in your "Billikens Over" threads for the last 3 games, couldn't find. I was going to post the following questions there, but I think it probably warrants its own thread.

So the questions:

- refresh my memory: what is the potential result you thought the Bills had a 40% chance of achieving this season if they continued playing consistently?

- since that post, does your computer still say 40%? or have the odds increased with two or three more victories?

- the real question: it is rare for non P5/P6 schools to get an at-large bid with RPI (now NET) in the 50s. almost always a score in the 40s is required, and for non-P5/P6 schools, the lower in the 40s the better. given the A10 is relatively weak this year with no conference team having top 50/40/25 NCAA NET scores, is it statistically possible for the Bills to achieve a NET score in the 40s by playing teams with NET scores no better than ours -- and mostly worse -- even if we win all remaining games this year? If we play no one better than us (more/less,) and the other top A10 teams don't play anyone better than them either (more/less,) don't we just tread water in the NET? If not, can you explain how we can potentially gain sufficient ground / 40s in the NET? I hope we win the conference tourney, of course. But if we don't -- everything else equal -- what's our path to make the Dance? And how razor-thin is that path? 

Billiken fans (at least this one) would love a high-level explanation of the statistics driving Team Blue's road to March Madness.  As always, thanks for all you do in this area!