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15 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net-nitty-team

Scroll down to #67 for our Team Sheet.  Currently we are 1-2 in Q1, 2-1 in Q2, 2-1 in Q3, and 8-0 in Q4.  We absolutely have to run the table in Q3 and Q4 to have any hope of an At Large.  We need Oregon State to stay in Q2. I'm guessing our Fordham W will slip to Q4 before the season is over.

St Joe is sitting at 162, just outside of the Q3 cutoff of 160.  After they lose tomorrow they will drop, but perhaps a late season rally will pull them into Q3.  None of our other Q4 wins has a decent chance of moving up to Q3.

If SIU would rally, our Q3 loss might become a Q2 loss.  They are 10 spots out of what would be Q2.  A Pitt rally could push a Q2 loss to a Q1 loss.  Sounds weird hoping to improve a loss, but that would help.

I feel pretty good about Pitt ending up as a  Q1 loss. I think they’re going to end up surprising some more ACC teams. I think they have a shot winning @Louisville, @Clemson, and beating VTech at home. 

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12 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

I feel pretty good about Pitt ending up as a  Q1 loss. I think they’re going to end up surprising some more ACC teams. I think they have a shot winning @Louisville, @Clemson, and beating VTech at home. 

While scrolling down the sheets, I noticed Murray State, NET 43, has played only 2 Q1 games, both losses, no Q2 games, and only two Q3 games, both wins.  Yet they are 43rd primarily on a 9-0 Q4 schedule.  The math behind this rating system is perplexing.

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6 minutes ago, almaman said:

dang

dont forget at least 22 conferences that have no business being involved in a national championship tourney with 68 entrants will be awarded bids for winning their conference tourney.   22 + 40 = only 6 more bubble spots.  

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

While scrolling down the sheets, I noticed Murray State, NET 43, has played only 2 Q1 games, both losses, no Q2 games, and only two Q3 games, both wins.  Yet they are 43rd primarily on a 9-0 Q4 schedule.  The math behind this rating system is perplexing.

Haven’t checked efficiencies, but a brief look at their schedule has them beating most of their cupcakes (and conference opponents) by 20. 

 

Edit: Kenpom has Murray States Offense Eff 32, Def 84. We're Off: 239 (yikes) and 17 (yay!)

 

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

While scrolling down the sheets, I noticed Murray State, NET 43, has played only 2 Q1 games, both losses, no Q2 games, and only two Q3 games, both wins.  Yet they are 43rd primarily on a 9-0 Q4 schedule.  The math behind this rating system is perplexing.

Here are some others that had me scratching my head:

Liberty at 44 - 0-0 vs first group teams and 1-3 in second group games

Northwestern at 59.  0-7 vs. group 1 and 2 teams.  

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1 hour ago, GBL_Bills said:

Haven’t checked efficiencies, but a brief look at their schedule has them beating most of their cupcakes (and conference opponents) by 20.

Edit: Kenpom has Murray States Offense Eff 32, Def 84. We're Off: 239 (yikes) and 17 (yay!)

 

44 minutes ago, SShoe said:

Here are some others that had me scratching my head:

Liberty at 44 - 0-0 vs first group teams and 1-3 in second group games

Northwestern at 59.  0-7 vs. group 1 and 2 teams.  

So they cap wins at 10 points yet apparently let offensive efficiency run with any amount of points?  Is efficiency more important than Q1 and Q2 wins?   Surely not.  The Wiz needs to dive deep into this morass.

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26 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

So they cap wins at 10 points yet apparently let offensive efficiency run with any amount of points?  Is efficiency more important than Q1 and Q2 wins?   Surely not.  The Wiz needs to dive deep into this morass.

So apparently defense is not important?

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15 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

So apparently defense is not important?

No idea. I’m just throwing up differences between us and Murray State that could contribute to the seemingly inexplicable 20 spot NET difference 

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37 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

So they cap wins at 10 points yet apparently let offensive efficiency run with any amount of points?  Is efficiency more important than Q1 and Q2 wins?   Surely not.  The Wiz needs to dive deep into this morass.

I will dive in to the morass but not to deep.....If you dive in too deep you will just make yourself crazy.  Imagine the NET as a pig trapped in a barn. The pig has a long 2 story pole tied to his body.... At the end of the pole is a flag.  The barn door is closed and you can;t see the pig...but you can see the flag through the open 2nd floor loft door. You can guess what the pig is doing by following the flag .  You know there is water to the left side of the barn  so you figure he is drinking water when the flag is left. When the flag stops moving the pig is resting.  But you really never know for sure because you can't see the pig. At the end of the day , the flag has disappeared.....what has happened?  you don't know because  you never actually see the pig.

When the NCAA talks about margins and efficiency they are telling you where things are in the barn  but when the flag disappears  at the end of the day. ...There is endless speculation ...there is no explanation as to  what happened to the pig...or why your team didn't get in. ....Just confusion and disappointment

So how can I have a system to know what teams get in? Another analogy..... Imagine 2 different GPS systems...The NET is one system and mine is another.We both enter the Chaifetz Arena as the destination. Both systems will get you there using the same data  but analyzing it in different ways.We may take some different streets but we get to the Fetz. The first 40 teams are a given no matter what system you use and most of the remaining 28 are pretty certain....There are about 20 teams near the end that are in a flux.  10 of them will make it 10 will not. The NET tool is only the latest change in a long series of changes. I continue to use my system which finds the best 68 teams....which in the end is always close to the NCAA. There are only so many ways to massage the data. 

In the end the NCAA always will choose a street or 2 that no one travels but after all is said and done...it is the NCAA system and they can travel any way they want to.....no matter how much we complain or speculate.

What is the answer....just win....I guarantee that if the Bills win the rest of their games by small margins and inefficiently....we will be Dancing.

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2 hours ago, GBL_Bills said:

No idea. I’m just throwing up differences between us and Murray State that could contribute to the seemingly inexplicable 20 spot NET difference 

Anyone want to see the reason remind you Murray St and there near lottery pick star at SIUE Saturday.

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Zona loses at home to a bad Oregon team in a game that was played in the 50s and really wasn't that close.  

There were 50 in the NET before last night.  That fall should be pretty substantial. 

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The NCAA Selection committee released their first cut at the Top 16 Seeds. What is interesting is that Texas Tech, NET 12, and Virginia Tech NET 14, aren't in the Top 16.  Kansas at NET 18 and Marquette at NET 21 were in the Top 16 instead.  (NET ranking is for games through Feb 9.)

So how important is NET?  I would have been surprised to have NET 1-16 as the make up of this first cut, but this certainly sets the stage for eliminating a team irregardless of their NET down the line on Selection Sunday.

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23 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

The NCAA Selection committee released their first cut at the Top 16 Seeds. What is interesting is that Texas Tech, NET 12, and Virginia Tech NET 14, aren't in the Top 16.  Kansas at NET 18 and Marquette at NET 21 were in the Top 16 instead.  (NET ranking is for games through Feb 9.)

So how important is NET?  I would have been surprised to have NET 1-16 as the make up of this first cut, but this certainly sets the stage for eliminating a team irregardless of their NET down the line on Selection Sunday.

It has the potential to shift the dynamic of any team on the bubble, the way they're thinking and using NET is humiliating. 

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