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The Bills over LaS by 7

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Well I think we covered the UMass game pretty well.  A win is always good but because we fell short on the spread , our numbers took a bit of a hit ....though not enough to lose our grade B...LaS enters the game with a C-. The variable spread shows us winning by 6-9 pts. Of course with LaSalle's terrible record (3-11) , it would be easy to overlook them....and that would be a mistake. This team just beat UMass at UMass  by 9 less than a week ago.  Shaking out all the home field advantages and putting us at LaS with our 3 pt win against UMass would give LaS a 13 point advantage using that 3 game comp playing  at LaS.  Fortunately, the computer said no....and gave us the nod with the spread. The moral of the story is ...take them for granted and we lose.


Let's see what we are dealing with here......

..............................SLU.............................LaS.............................................SLU.................................LaS

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+.................................D-..................................................A..................................D-

FG%..........................D-................................F.................................................B+...................................F+

3P%..........................F+................................D-.................................................A-.................................D+

FT%...........................F-...4th worst ITN......A+ 3rd in the nation.........................................................

Reb............................A-................................F..................................................C+...................................D+

 

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 28th....Carter. 46th...Bess 99th

 

Injury update....1/9/19 Welmer ...Out indefinitely...He is sidelined with a left foot fracture and will miss an extended period of time.

For those keeping score , we moved down in 3P shooting and up 1 place in the FT category.

One thing that doesn't show up in the report card is the TO ratio in the last 3 games....We are averaging an amazing 8.3 TO/gm...Good for 6th in the nation....We have averaged opponent TOs of 15.3 for the last 3 games....and 15.1  for the season....The differential in the last 3 games has been 7....good for an extra 14 pts /gm....I will tell you one thing ...if we can keep up 8.3 /gm and a TO differential of 7...we could sweep the rest of the games this season....even with terrible shooting. That statement is not a large pitcher of blue kool-aid. ...It is not based on wishful thinking ..we have done it for 3 games in a row plus some other games...keep it up and we will win.

OK ...back to earth....

WWN2D2W...Hold Powell to 13pts....everyone else to single digits....LaS is not a very good team BUT they do 2 things well...Make FTs and create TOs....They average over 79% from the line which is good for 3rd in the nation....Of their top 9 scorers their worst guy shoots a lowly 77%....7 of the 9 are 81% are higher. ..the 3rd best faces the the 4th worst....we will not win any FT contest so we have to try and keep the fouls down....Projection is they will pickup 5 pts extra at the FT line. ...They also are an A team at causing TOs averaging 16.3 /gm...and 18.3 over the last 3 games....good for 16th in the nation. ....We need to win the TO battle....if this gets away from us  it could cost us the game....as always protect the ball but especially this game.   Also,  we are the better rebounding team...we need to not just win the battle but to dominate the boards.  Lastly we need to shoot this as an absolute minimum....42/31/60....or bad things can happen.

Bottom line....LaS = Bad offense...Bad defense......The Bills = Bad offense , good defense...We should win this game ...The only way we lose is if we beat ourselves.

 

 

 

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I still believe our shooting will improve JGood will come around and not put so much pressure on himself he has a capable helper Isabell that can dish out the assists JGood has large sample size in minutes played that shows he can play much better then he has.  Our team has had disruptions with injuries and defections to adjust to.  Wiley will start hitting shots again he had been out so long he is starting over and will get there.

Thatch has shown he is what he is great defender streaky shooter and do not see any improvement until next season as far as shooting.

Hankton’s shot looks great and the increased playing time should hone in his shot.

Jacobs shooting cannot be this bad all of the time so his numbers should improve.

@The Wizwhat is the average shooting percentage of college teams and if our team can achieve those numbers how big of impact would that be?

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JGood's the key. He's missing too many shots that he made last season. Not jumpers or 3s, but layups, putbacks, and tip ins. They just haven't fallen for him this season. Easily could add 10 ppg off of those. 

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Anybody know if they have left yet?

Taravel could be pretty awful later this afternoon.

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11 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Anybody know if they have left yet?

Taravel could be pretty awful later this afternoon.

My flight to St.Louis has already been cancelled renting a four wheel drive truck to get home from Wichita so I hope the Billiken’s flight gets out before noon.

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34 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Anybody know if they have left yet?

Taravel could be pretty awful later this afternoon.

They're leaving today, not sure what time.

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59 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Anybody know if they have left yet?

Taravel could be pretty awful later this afternoon.

They leave today. They have until 3 to do so

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This game has bad loss written all over it.  It will be LaSalle's super bowl and our players will inevitability look at the 3-9 record and think they are about to play a cupcake.  

Here is to hoping the good doctor (Giannini) has to coach a little bit down the stretch.  We should win then.  

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5 hours ago, CBFan said:

I still believe our shooting will improve JGood will come around and not put so much pressure on himself he has a capable helper Isabell that can dish out the assists JGood has large sample size in minutes played that shows he can play much better then he has.  Our team has had disruptions with injuries and defections to adjust to.  Wiley will start hitting shots again he had been out so long he is starting over and will get there.

Thatch has shown he is what he is great defender streaky shooter and do not see any improvement until next season as far as shooting.

Hankton’s shot looks great and the increased playing time should hone in his shot.

Jacobs shooting cannot be this bad all of the time so his numbers should improve.

@The Wizwhat is the average shooting percentage of college teams and if our team can achieve those numbers how big of impact would that be?

On page 2 of the UMass spread thread, I posted on the topic (including numbers) of the effect the shooting is having on our season vs an average D1 team.  I also focused on our losses in that post to show what would have happened with average shooting.

I am sure you missed it while you have been on the move.... Safe journey to you on your travels back to St. Louis.

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I got the same feeling for this game that I had for SIUC. Not great. 

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Hey Nick -- Dr. John got fired after last year.  Ashley Howard, former Nova assistant, now in control.

 

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33 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

This game has bad loss written all over it.  It will be LaSalle's super bowl and our players will inevitability look at the 3-9 record and think they are about to play a cupcake.  

Here is to hoping the good doctor (Giannini) has to coach a little bit down the stretch.  We should win then.  

Yeah, I have a bad feeling about this one. Since we joined the A-10 we are 2-11 in our first conference road game (granted, we were probably only favored in a handful of them). And that includes 2 losses to LaSalle.

Gola Arena is a wildcard. That place is charmingly depressing and it will be hard for our guys to get used to playing in what is essentially a high school gym again. When I lived in Philly, I attended ~10 games at Gola, and each time the ambiance smacked me in the face.  Also, the temperature in the gym is weird. It's either 900 degrees or slightly above freezing. 

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24 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Hey Nick -- Dr. John got fired after last year.  Ashley Howard, former Nova assistant, now in control.

 

Ashley? 

How progressive of them to hire a female.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

They leave today. They have until 3 to do so

They are saying sleet might start around 12:30 or 1:00 now.

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This game terrifies me at this point, mostly because LaSalle seems to be a new team with 3 out of 4 wins and the only loss being a close game at VCU. anybody know if they had any payers become eligible at break or come off injury?

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The Wiz does the numbers, let's look at personnel.  It is no coincidence that La Salle is playing better over it's last four games because that coincides with the return of 6'4" SG Saul Phiri to the team.  These last four games have been Phiri's first of the season, although I am hard-pressed to find out why.  From what I have seen, which is very little, I believe it might have been grades. In addition, La Salle's first win in this four game stretch, while over winless Alabama A&M at the time, also  marked the return of 6'0" SG Pookie Powell from a back injury.  Powell is like the fifth leading scorer in the A10 right now at 17.7 ppg. 

Besides those two, La Salle starts 6'8" Freshman Jared Kimbrough, 6'1" PG Marquette transfer Junior Traci Carter and 6'6" SF Isiah Deas.  Two more 6'8" freshmen Ed Croswell and Jack Clark get time off the bench.  Miles Brookins, a 6'10" Sophomore had been starting but logged zero minutes against VCU.  For the most part, La Salle is a typical, college, guard-oriented team.

Powell averages 17.7 ppg , Phiri is back at 12 ppg, Deas is at 11.6 and Clark comes in at 10.6.  Brookins is close to 10 ppg at 8.5. Clark has logged only seven of La Salle's 14 game sso far so he may be a new addition as well as Phiri.  Averaging 10 in seven is pretty decent if you ask me.

I think this sits as a very losable trap game.  Overall, La Salle is down; recently they have been up.  Carter, and Georgia transfer David Beatty, also a guard, have provided little to date.  This will be in cold, callous Gola Mausoleum with little if any fanfare.  La Salle has played essentially the same ball since their Sweet Sixteen run a few years ago -- Philly street ball, with a lot of guards, and a lot of transfers.  Our run for the Brooklyn roses will hinge desperately in games like these -- on the road against the lower life forms of the A10.  I think Bess gets Powell.  Isabell likely gets Carter.  Goodwin opens on Deas or Phiri with French on Kimbrough/Creswell/Clark.  That lea.vbe the open Deas/Phiri postion left to DJ Foreman.  Both Deas and Phiri are off guards forced to play the 3/4 position.  This does not bode well for DJ and if you go with Thatch, you lose some in terms of the height comparison.  Phiri was a high volume scorer coming into La Salle.  His energy against VCU was off the charts.  We cannot allow Phiri to compliment Powell so much so that it really sinks our ship.  I want a 2 and 0 road trip to move us to 4 and 0 by next weekend.

The sooperdooperlooper will be once again leaving the station come Saturday. 

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27 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Ashley? 

How progressive of them to hire a female.

Don’t forget Gone With The Wind’s Ashley foil for Rhett. 

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dlarry ---- do you need blue font?

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3 minutes ago, eastsidejoe said:

At this point, what game doesn't scare you with the way we shoot??

Why this one is so very scary. As someone said, kind of like SIUC. Roadie with a tight travel schedule due to weather. Surprised they didn't leave yesterday as someone pointed out classes don't start until Monday. Any of you former managers got a reason not to leave a day early?

We need Goodwin to break out of his shooting slump and this game would be a good start. Kind of a homecoming for Isabell, though, so maybe he goes off big time.

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5 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Roadie with a tight travel schedule due to weather. Surprised they didn't leave yesterday as someone pointed out classes don't start until Monday. Any of you former managers got a reason not to leave a day early?

Could be flying commercial into Philly (large city with lots of flights in), could be no time to practice at Gola, Could of had to do with the late game Wednesday and using Thursday as a light practice/rest/treatment day (treatment is harder on the road), might have to do with hotel availability as well. Lots of factors but a Late charter on Thursday would have been ideal then a day of acclimation in Philly (using the Under Armour balls at practice at Gola and getting depth perception.

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-on the postgame show after UMass CFord said yesterday would be very light on court practice but more film and mental, today practice and then travel, did not indicate if charter or commercial, after game tomorrow bus to NYC so let's hope for no weather to impact travel

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16 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-on the postgame show after UMass CFord said yesterday would be very light on court practice but more film and mental, today practice and then travel, did not indicate if charter or commercial, after game tomorrow bus to NYC so let's hope for no weather to impact travel

It seems inevitable.  For whatever reason, this Bills' team has been cursed by tough travel this year. 

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