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It's a Long Season--A Little Perspective for the Billiken Faithful


Matty Light

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I know we all feel disappointed by today's outcome but I want to offer a little perspective.  First off, going to Florida and getting beat handily by Florida State is not an embarrassment.  That is a Elite Eight/Final Four caliber team.  It is a lot like what happened in the 1998 Big Dance against Kentucky.  We were simply outclassed.

I reference that 97-98 team for a reason.  That season we started the season with high expectations.  We got off to an 8-0 start winning home games against Illinois and Vanderbilt.  Good wins, but nothing impressive.  We then lost at #11 UCLA.  We went to a holiday tourney in Puerto Rico and lost to #19 Syracuse, a weak rebuilding Iowa State team, and #12 Arkansas.  We came back to SLU and opened the Conference USA season with a disappointing loss to Memphis before the students got back from Christmas Break--making 5 losses in a row.

The feeling when we got back to campus was much like how I imagine we are all feeling today.  But we kept getting better, and even though the only ranked CUSA team (Cincinnati) beat us twice including an absolute de-pantsing at the Savvis Center.  We finished the season strong and got an At-Large bid and got the Big Dance.  We even beat UMass in the 1st Round.  I think that is probably what this team can still accomplish this year.  Yes, the turnovers, stagnant scoring, and FT shooting leaves a lot to worry about.  But Coach Ford has showed the last two seasons that his teams get better as the season goes on.  Have faith that this will continue to be the case.  We can still take it to our conference foes.  We just need to learn how to play to our strengths and away from our weaknesses.

The season is far from over.  Have faith in this team.  With a leader like Bess and a great defense we can still make a tourney trip.  These games can really be beneficial to the Bills later on in the season.  Let's give this team a chance to prove itself in the conference season before anyone jumps off the bandwagon.  Go SLU! We believe!

 

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I agree with your point, but I would like to suggest that the team you're comparing this squad to — yeesh, has it really been 21 years?! — played in a conference that was, basically, on level with today's "Power 6."  Earning an at-large bid in that conference was much more likely than in this year's A-10.

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1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I agree with your point, but I would like to suggest that the team you're comparing this squad to — yeesh, has it really been 21 years?! — played in a conference that was, basically, on level with today's "Power 6."  Earning an at-large bid in that conference was much more likely than in this year's A-10.

You make an excellent point, Job 1.  Only DePaul and Louisville really sucked that season. Everyone else was probably top 100 teams.  But we lost once to Louisville and the other division didn't send any teams to The Dance.  Our signature win was the victory in Milwaukee where Larry Legend poured in 40 against Marquette.

TV ratings drive the tournament and having Larry Hughes really buoyed our chances.  We had aggregated 20 wins going into the postseason, so we just had to win one game in the CUSA tourney to punch our ticket.

This is why I love Coach Ford getting out in the media and promoting Jevon Bess.  Jevon is one of the best all-around guards in the country.  If he can get into some All American team discussion it would really boost our chances of getting in the tournament.  Some flashy team defense ranking wouldn't hurt during Bracketology discussion.

The Atlantic-10 conference has gotten 3 bids each season since 2014, when 6 teams reached the Big Dance.  The last time they got less than 3 bids was 2007.  Could the A-10 get less than 2 bids?  Possibly, but it depends how the conference season goes, and how well SLU and Davidson are playing at the end of the year.  I bet the CBS/Turner consortium would love to have Kellan Grady and Javon Bess in their programming.  If we take care of business against all of the poor teams in conference, we can put up a 14-4 conference record.  That could give us 23 wins going into the conference tourney.  I don't know what Vegas puts those odds at but it's our BICENTENNIAL baby!  You got to BELIEVE!

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3 hours ago, Matty Light said:

I know we all feel disappointed by today's outcome but I want to offer a little perspective.  First off, going to Florida and getting beat handily by Florida State is not an embarrassment.  That is a Elite Eight/Final Four caliber team.  It is a lot like what happened in the 1998 Big Dance against Kentucky.  We were simply outclassed.

I reference that 97-98 team for a reason.  That season we started the season with high expectations.  We got off to an 8-0 start winning home games against Illinois and Vanderbilt.  Good wins, but nothing impressive.  We then lost at #11 UCLA.  We went to a holiday tourney in Puerto Rico and lost to #19 Syracuse, a weak rebuilding Iowa State team, and #12 Arkansas.  We came back to SLU and opened the Conference USA season with a disappointing loss to Memphis before the students got back from Christmas Break--making 5 losses in a row.

The feeling when we got back to campus was much like how I imagine we are all feeling today.  But we kept getting better, and even though the only ranked CUSA team (Cincinnati) beat us twice including an absolute de-pantsing at the Savvis Center.  We finished the season strong and got an At-Large bid and got the Big Dance.  We even beat UMass in the 1st Round.  I think that is probably what this team can still accomplish this year.  Yes, the turnovers, stagnant scoring, and FT shooting leaves a lot to worry about.  But Coach Ford has showed the last two seasons that his teams get better as the season goes on.  Have faith that this will continue to be the case.  We can still take it to our conference foes.  We just need to learn how to play to our strengths and away from our weaknesses.

The season is far from over.  Have faith in this team.  With a leader like Bess and a great defense we can still make a tourney trip.  These games can really be beneficial to the Bills later on in the season.  Let's give this team a chance to prove itself in the conference season before anyone jumps off the bandwagon.  Go SLU! We believe!

 

Exactly. Getting stomped, away from home, by a top 10 team happens even to good teams. We had a bad game. Big deal. The problem is that we peed away both the Pitt and Houston games. We put our selves in a position where this game was ultra important to get into the at large conversation. 

At this point, this is a good not great team. Should end up top 4 in the league and will have as good or better chance to win the conference tourney than anyone. Given the hype, slightly disappointing but obviously a major improvement over these last few years. In Ford we trust. 

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Good post, Matty Light. Our real run to make the dance begins in January. While this team has problems, they can be remedied save for FT's. We are still a relatively new and young team that needs time to jell. 

FSU is a veteran team that missed the final 4 by 2 points. They are good and I expect they will in the ACC. So losing to them is no disgrace. Yes, we lost by a lot but it happens to even good teams.

Once again the run for the roses starts Jan 6. Keep the faith, Billiken nation.   

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1 minute ago, EssEllYou said:

I think Bills can go undefeated in conf play. But, it is a disappointment that number 1 and 2 a10 finishers only get a bye to quarter finals in Brooklyn-just as the 3 and 4 finishers. 1 and 2 should get a bye to semi finals IMO. So, really SLU just needs to finish top 4 in conf play.

If we don’t finish top 4 in the A10, then something has gone very, very wrong. 

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we need to overwhelmingly win the conference.   The closer to 40 NET rating the better.   not sure how even going undefeated in the A10 will get us there (we have no historical reference at this point on the NET system) and i remain in the camp that no further wins vs top 50 programs will not get us there (our conference will be mostly 100+ rankings)  but we have ourselves in a position that our chance of getting an at large bid is not going to be good because the A10 is the weakest it has been in the entire time the billikens have been in this conference.  

That said, being desparate in Brooklyn with a 2 game bye wouldnt be the worst place to be.   should make brooklyn fun.   

coach ford, from this point forward, let's play havoc.   turn up the pace.  

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

coach ford, from this point forward, let's play havoc.   turn up the pace.  

Agreed.  For a team without a pg and shooters, this seems like a reasonable approach. Not saying we have the depth to do it all game, but why not try it in the first have when FSU started creating distance.  Also, and it’s not fair because FSU probably let up some, but I wonder  what the +\- was for SLU when we pressed in the second half (I don’t think we started pressing until we were down 20+).

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7 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I think the regular season winner gets in assuming the regular season winner doesnt go like 12-6 or probably even 13-5. 

I dont think we win the regular season until we start playing to our strengths offensively 

 

14 minutes ago, dlarry said:

Maybe I’m naive or possibly living in the past but I stilll think winning the conference gets us in.

Agree with both of you.

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34 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i remain in the camp that no further wins vs top 50 programs will get us there (our conference will be mostly 100+ rankings)  but we have ourselves in a position that our chance of getting an at large bid is not going to be good because the A10 is the weakest it has been in the entire time the billikens have been in this conference.  

It remains to be seen whether the A10 is as weak as it was in our first year in the conference, when Tommie and Kevin were freshmen and Ian was a junior.  We finished fourth out of 14 teams.  George Washington ran the table that year with an average coach but lost the only game they played in the conference tournament.  And we still got two bids.  Kind of hard to be weaker than that.  Remember these piss poor records?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/atlantic-10/2006.html

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Once again all this optimism is just like it was preseason with all the undefeated non conf record people and/or only one or possibly 2 losses.  This team has not shown the ability to be consistent enough for anybody to think we will go undefeated in the conf.  Can they - sure but a lot of things have to change.  Improve the TO per game numbers, shoot better FT %s, and develop a better perimeter game - just enough to keep people honest and open the lane for our bigs not just at the end of the game when it is too little too late.  Can we do all this - possibly but from what we have seen so far this is not a gimme by any means.

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Here are the current Pomeroy rankings for the A-10. No commentary, but I was looking this morning and thought I would post it since it might be of interest to others. 

75 - VCU

82 - Davidson

83 - Dayton

94 - Saint Louis

99 - Rhode Island

101 - Saint Joseph's

143 - Massachusetts

152 - St. Bonaventure

159 - Duquesne

164 - George Mason

191 - Richmond

203 - Fordham

240 - La Salle

279 - George Washington

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We went into the FSU game as a B team and even though our numbers weakened a bit, we come out a B team.  Six games ago , i projected we would be 3-3...and that's where we are. That is what a B team would do against that competition.   B teams have about a 75% chance of going to the NIT. The season isn't over  at this point. Put me in the camp that says if we win the conference we will get a Big Dance bid....As I have said elsewhere on the board, the winner of the conference has gone to the Dance every year that since SLU has been in the A-10. This year won't be any different.  Winning the conference though is not a given. I mentioned in the preseason it would be a scramble  to be champ. There are 6 teams that could win the conference.. We are one of them.  If we play to our potential we could be the champ. In order to do that we need to be more consistent. To quote  Forrest Gump...." We are like a box of chocolates...you never know what you will get."

As for perspective....we are at grade B now. Last year we were a D....in fact the last few years we have been at D. This is a much better team than last year . This is the best team in the last few years. When you are at D,  generally the most you can improve is 2 full letter grades...so far we have done that ...done the max.  Can a team do more than 2 grades...it's possible if things go right....no injuries ,  no loss of players, consistency,  and some luck. These factors have already affected us....thus we are at the max of B.  The computer thinks we have the chance to get to B+...which would then be a 1/3 chance of Dancing.

Last year we gelled in the final month. I think we are ahead of that now in that we are one of 2 teams in the A-10 ( of the top 6) that are trending up. (the other is VCU)  I think we come into conference in good shape (assuming we beat  App St) 

We are the best team in the A-10 if we play to potential....that's what the numbers say.   To quote Elvis....we just need to ...TCOB...Take care of business.

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Back in the lisch/liddell freshmen year the A10 had 2 teams with sub 40 rpi's and 2 more under 80.  

Thus in reality besides the autobid to conference tourney winner, xaiver, the A10 should have also gotten not only george washington, who did rightfully get an at large bid, st joes should also had gotten an at large bid.   

Currently the A10 has zero teams under 40 and only vcu even under 80.   

Sorry 3 star but the conference is the weakest its ever been.

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3 hours ago, EssEllYou said:

My gut tells me only the Brooklyn champ dances. Winning the conference probably isnt gonna cut it.  We just need to get our bye games and be in the top 4.  Seems there is no reward for being conf champs in a10 except you get a banner for your home court.

No more pussyfooting around, TFord needs to have a gut check with this team and tell them that!

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6 hours ago, VeniceMenace said:

Got to keep the faith...TFord is snagging prime time recruits each year, including locals. I believe we can all agree the program is on an upward trajectory.

If you aren't a good Xs and Os coach, then the 4-5 star recruits will all waste away.

I'm sorry, but now that he has a talented team, he has a ton to prove.

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