The Wiz Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Well, now the fun starts. In the next 9 days we will play 2 highly ranked teams....Hou (A-) and Fl St (A). Even though Hou has a slightly lower grade (weak schedule...D- ) the games will be equally difficult because Hou is playing at home and FSU is at a neutral site. Also there is no variable spread ...7 is it....the computer is fairly sure of itself. Ah.... but there is always a way to mess with the computer. So let's try this....Butler is very close to Hou in ranking......both teams come in at A...so I enter the data as a 3 team analysis with Butler as a common foe. After we adjust for for the Home advantage that Hou will have( that Butler didn't) and adjust for the grade difference between Hou and Butler.....Hou picks up 5 more pts....7+5 =12pts...Then we look at the spread of the Butler game and see we won by 12.....in others words because the teams (Hou and Butler) are similar in ranking...we can use substitute Hou for Butler and the game shows even....provided we play Hou like we did Butler. The computer would rather not do it this way but I am in charge....It does show that a win is not a far fetched possibility. We wouldn't have to do something we haven't done before. OK ...now back to reality...let's look at the report card. .................................SLU..............................HOU.............................................SLU.............................HOU ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF............... PPG.........................F...................................C+.................................................A.................................A+... 15th ITN FG%..........................D...................................C.................................................A..................................A 3P%..........................D+................................C..................................................A+....12th ITN............A+...9th ITN FT%...........................F-....2nd worst ITN......C+......................................................................................... Reb............................A-...................................A.................................................B-.................................B Top 100 ITN Stls....Bess ..97th Blks....Gordon...76th ...........Gresham...49th Assts......Robinson....24th FG%.......Brady....12th....70.5% FT%..........Davis....39th ...92% And now we see why Hou is where they are...a strong defense. I have frequently lamented....I wonder what kind of team the Bills would be if we just had an average offense....we would be Hou....Look at Hou Off grades....they have a very average offense...coupled with a Bills type defense and you have a Top 25 team and an undefeated season. WWN2D2W.....Play our usual D and a little better O....Bills slash 47/35/70.....Brooks is their guy....hold him to 12...Don't foul Davis...it will be automatic pts if we do....we have to have the lead in the final minutes...if we don't they give the ball to Davis to close the game out....Brady comes off the bench to score if he is left alone.....Protect the ball ....no more than 12 TOs....and TO diff even. Injury report the same as the one listed a few days ago in The Wiz review of the A-10 thread. Bottom line...this will be a very low scoring game ...in the neighborhood of 120 pts.. a defensive struggle....a back and forth game where both teams have trouble scoring. The computer gives the edge to Hou because it thinks that Hou has the better offense. But Hou has not seen a defense as good as ours....If we can make the easy shots...fast breaks and bunnies and avoid mistakes ...careless TOs ...we can win this game. We did it against Butler ...we can do it again. Spoon-Balls and rgbilliken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mechee89 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Wiz, if I had to guess, you probably got a degree in Animal Husbandry. Am I wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Well, we don't have to worry about the man bob guy this year. My prediction is Goodwin finds his game, we win by 5. rgbilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 13, 2018 Author Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, mechee89 said: Wiz, if I had to guess, you probably got a degree in Animal Husbandry. Am I wrong? Close.......Billiken Numerology drkelsey55 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clocktoweraccords2004 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 They were down as much as 15 yesterday but came back. I think our defense can show up and our offense gets better we win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, Clocktoweraccords2004 said: They were down as much as 15 yesterday but came back. I think our defense can show up and our offense gets better we win Could be stretching there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Houston’s opponents defense according to KenPom: Alabama AM: 332 Rice: 313 N’western St: 318 BYU: 84 UT Rio Grand Valley: 139 Oregon: 37 Lamar: 229 OK ST: 53 LSU: 106 OVERALL: 267 Billikens: 15 They have only played two decent defenses. They scored 65 on Oregon and 63 on OKST for an average of 64 while giving up 57. against good offense teams in Butler, Hall, and OState we averaged scoring 65 points and giving up 59 Should be a good game. Go Bills! Zink and SouthSide_Billiken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 -I think there will be games where we shoot lights out, there will be (and have been) games where we can't make shots, if we shoot lights out I'll take our chances against anyone, if we can't make baskets we won't win (see SIU), simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -I think there will be games where we shoot lights out, there will be (and have been) games where we can't make shots, if we shoot lights out I'll take our chances against anyone, if we can't make baskets we won't win (see SIU), simple Our shooting is what it is and i don’t really expect a game any time soon where we hit consistently from all three of fg/ft/3 pt. If we can just cut down on the 6-8 bonehead mistakes/turnovers and stay out of early foul trouble, I like our chances to hang with anyone. That being said, I don’t see this as the game where we cut out the bad mistakes. UH gets up big early, we close the lead to 8-12 points and then UH puts us away over the last 6-8 min. Littlebill and billiken_roy like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillIkenFan_Dan Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Bills do what they have done all season play to their competion, I would except isabell comes back and the defense is rowdy, with isabell and Bess we close the game out with free throws and win by 4 go Bills!!! eastsidejoe likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I think we all know that when it comes to our Billikens, anything can happen. We have been in a hostile environment twice already this year --- Seton Hall and Carbondale. We split. Anything can happen and I expect the same here. I am not expecting a win but you never know. What I will watch closely is how this plays out in the beginning ----- if they call ticky-tack fouls on French and Gordon and Goodwin and Foreman, we are dead. Consequently, when these guys hedge, hedge properly and don't give the refs the opportunity for the ticky-tack calls. Hedging is great but the reality is you are still a good 20 feet from the basket. Cover Kamar Baldwin; don't worry about Thik Bol. Fouls will happen and we won't be immune ... let's not add to woes on the road. rgbilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Houston looks good but not exceptional. Bills win by a couple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Prediction: All Billikens cylinders fire for 30 out of 40 minutes, Bills win 70-67. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoop Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I feel better about this game after watching Houston last night. I think we match up pretty well with them. Stellar D and Isabell comes back and has a day. Bills win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I've seen Houston a couple times, including last night. They are athletic and have some good guards. As expected we're the underdog and I'm not counting on a win, BUT there are a few things that could work in our favor. They are coming off an emotional comeback win, so hopefully they are due for a letdown. Also, they have played a couple P5 teams that frankly are easier for them to get up for. Also, they absolutely dominated us at the Fetz last year, so based on that, it would be natural if they took us a bit lightly. We have to ugly it up of course and keep it close. I'm not counting on Thatch to knock in a bunch of 3-pointers again, so somebody else will have to step up and have a big game. I keep going back to the guy who preseason was considered an A-10 POY candidate - Jordan Goodwin. Also, we'll need Isabell to play, if not, Jacobs will be getting minutes. Based on his last performance, doesn't look like he's ready yet to handle a tough road test like we face on Sunday. I think we'll also need to do damage inside and with second chance points, an area we could have an advantage. This is now the key game if we want to get out of the non-conference schedule with 3 losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: Prediction: All Billikens cylinders fire for 30 out of 40 minutes, Bills win 70-67. I’m optimistic for a win but I don’t think it’ll be that high of a score with a Billikens win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 My two cents, I think both the Houston and the Fla St. games are winnable, however I think this is not going to be an easy thing to do. I will be perfectly happy if we win one of the two and lose the other one by a couple of points only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliken Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, Old guy said: My two cents, I think both the Houston and the Fla St. games are winnable, however I think this is not going to be an easy thing to do. I will be perfectly happy if we win one of the two and lose the other one by a couple of points only. I'd take a split any way we can get it. Win by 1, lose by 30? Ok! Worst case for me is lose both by close games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: I’m optimistic for a win but I don’t think it’ll be that high of a score with a Billikens win. That's my take too. IF we win, I expect it will be a lower score. We are better at lock down defense than we are at any semblance of high octane offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 9 hours ago, mechee89 said: Wiz, if I had to guess, you probably got a degree in Animal Husbandry. Am I wrong? I was majoring in Animal Husbandry at Swampeast MO but then they caught me at it & I changed it to Marketing. (thks to Tom Leher for this bit of wit) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I watched last nite & LSU had them on their heels in the middle of the game & thought our D might carry us thru - then watched the recovery - no defense works against the shots they were dropping. I'm hopeful but not optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 63-60 bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 No two games go exactly the same way. We have a chance to win, it will be difficult but we can do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 4 hours ago, NextYearBill said: 63-60 bills Close, SLU 67-62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Interesting factoid I found on the UH message board (via wikipedia ) In its heyday, the Billiken enjoyed worldwide celebrity. In America he became the athletic mascot of Saint Louis University, because the figure was said to resemble coach John R. Bender. The school’s athletic teams remain the Billikens to this day. A bronze statue of the Billiken stands in front of the Chaifetz Arena on the Saint Louis University Campus. That same John R. Bender became Houston’s first football coach. He’s the reason the Cougars are called the “Cougars.” On another note, the UH fans are very respectful in their comments about the Billikens and the upcoming game. cgeldmacher likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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