The Wiz Review of The Bills & The A-10 at the Turn

[The Wiz]

First an Injury update.....12/10/18

Welmer ....Downgraded to...Out indefinitely....Left injury ...extended period of time

Wiley...Questionable...Thigh injury...unknown if he will suit up for Hou

Isabell...Questionable...Leg injury...status unclear for Hou 

I have used the exact words in the injury report...make of it what you will.

Now back to the review....7-2...I will take it....That is what I had after 9 games preseason....doesn't mean I didn't have some misses...losses to But & SH..wins against Pitt and SIU...but in the end same record ...better numbers....because the teams we beat are better...

A low light at this point of the season is our FT shooting....This is not breaking news....however this is...we have fallen below 60% for the season....which is a key area....that puts us not only at F-  but 3rd worst in the nation....we have a number of close games coming up particularly in Conference. Those close games could be decided by FT shooting....scary.

On a positive note...we have one of the best defenses in the nation....12th ITN in 3P Def...and top 25 in FG% and PPG.   Good enough to keep us in every game and with just a little offense....

Great game against OSU...for a post game analysis check the OSU spread thread (Bills by 2)

Now let's look at the A-10 report card at the first turn (8 or more games)...actually 1 team still has 7 ...But I didn't want to wait a week for RI to play the 8th game...these grades will work ...I will revise them if RI upsets WVU.    From this point forward most teams will stay within a notch of where they are now ...ie The Bills at B can range from B- to B+...When grades are the same,  teams are listed alphabetically.

Here is the report

.................Current...........Preseason

Dav..............B+....................B+

Day..............B+.....................B

VCU..............B+....................B

Bills..............B.....................B+

RI..................B......................B

St. J.............B......................B

UMass..........B-......................C+

St. B.............C+......................B-

Duq................C.....................C

GM.................C.....................B-

Rich...............C.......................C+

Ford................D+.....................D

GW...................D.......................C-

LaS...................D.......................C

What this means is 2 of the top 3 teams will be Dancing...unless the Conference winner also wins the Tourney...then we could be a 1 bid conf....It is more likely we will have 2 different winners and 2 bids....the remaining 1 or 2 teams will get NIT bids...in the B category these teams need to move up to B+ to have a chance of post season play....if all three move up to B+....1 more will be Dancing 1 more will be in the NIT and 1 will still be left out....if no teams move up then no post season for any of them....The good news is is the Bills are trending at B+ now over the last 6 games....The bad news is 2 of the next 3 games are against A teams  away.  Coming into the 6 games starting with Butler... I had us 3-3....we have already won 2 with a win coming up against NC Central...we should be in good shape as long as we can stay around the spreads in the next 3 games. Since we have to wait for the Hou -LSU game and it has a bearing on our game...here is a forecast ....Hou by 8 over LSU with a range of 5-11 points favoring Hou on the variable spread.  Both teams are rated at A- now.

For the preseason I had The Bills at 23-8...with a high of 26-5 and a low of 21-10....At the 1st turn I see nothing that will change those forecasts.

 

Bottom line....We are in the B area...this is a far cry from last year's D area....We are a much better team than last year. And the best part is we haven't played our best basketball yet....imagine if we start to convert fast breaks and bunny shots.  We can't depend on shooting 67% from 3 every game....but we can make up for some of those extra 3s by making the easier shots...not having games where we shoot under 50% from the FT line and careless TOs lifting us way above a target of 12/gm.

I think the team and the fans need to take the attitude that the best is yet to come....If they do...it will.

 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

Let’s say that after non-con, Davidson is 11-2, SLU is 10-3, VCU is 10-3, and Dayton is 9-4. 

Then, in conference play, each team goes 16-2, only losing to each other, and beating all other 10 teams in the A-10 (not gonna happen, I know). Then they each win the first game of the A-10 tourney. 

So going into the semifinals, the records are:

Davidson 28-4 (16-2) (1-0)

SLU 27-5 (16-2) (1-0)

VCU 27-5 (16-2) (1-0)

Dayton 26-6 (16-2) (1-0)

If that near impossible scenario were to happen, could all four teams end up making the tournament? I know it only has a .0000001 percent chance to happen, but if it did, I’m just curious what your stats say.

[EssEllYou]

I recall one of the StLPD sports analysts use to have a stat that would be positive or negative score depending on the aggregated team scoring while they were on the court. For example, Bess could be +10 if SLU scored 10 more points than the opponent while he was in the game.  Or, if Jacobs came in for 5 min and the opponent went on a 10-2 run, he would get scored a -8.  This stat is wonderful, and I wish someone would pick it back up again. It conveys the impact of "floor presence".  

[billikens747]

45 minutes ago, EssEllYou said:

I recall one of the StLPD sports analysts use to have a stat that would be positive or negative score depending on the aggregated team scoring while they were on the court. For example, Bess could be +10 if SLU scored 10 more points than the opponent while he was in the game.  Or, if Jacobs came in for 5 min and the opponent went on a 10-2 run, he would get scored a -8.  This stat is wonderful, and I wish someone would pick it back up again. It conveys the impact of "floor presence".  

Most of the time, +/- are given in the post game box scores. See link for box score from OSU game at bottom of a game recap here.

http://www.slubillikens.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=27200&ATCLID=211783311

[brianstl]

45 minutes ago, EssEllYou said:

I recall one of the StLPD sports analysts use to have a stat that would be positive or negative score depending on the aggregated team scoring while they were on the court. For example, Bess could be +10 if SLU scored 10 more points than the opponent while he was in the game.  Or, if Jacobs came in for 5 min and the opponent went on a 10-2 run, he would get scored a -8.  This stat is wonderful, and I wish someone would pick it back up again. It conveys the impact of "floor presence".  

Here you go

http://www.slubillikens.com/pdf9/5480206.pdf

[SLU_Lax]

If talking plus-minus, I do want to always point out that it can be skewed by the end of the game.  If we keep French in for defense and pull him for offense (for foul shooting reasons), then (depending on the game and what happens) he may be on the floor while we give up several points and then promptly pulled before we score any points on Free Throws (so he wouldn't get credit).  At some point there will be a close game where this strategy will cause French to be a -8 or higher in the final few minutes (even if the Billikens increase their lead over those final minutes).

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Let’s say that after non-con, Davidson is 11-2, SLU is 10-3, VCU is 10-3, and Dayton is 9-4. 

Then, in conference play, each team goes 16-2, only losing to each other, and beating all other 10 teams in the A-10 (not gonna happen, I know). Then they each win the first game of the A-10 tourney. 

So going into the semifinals, the records are:

Davidson 28-4 (16-2) (1-0)

SLU 27-5 (16-2) (1-0)

VCU 27-5 (16-2) (1-0)

Dayton 26-6 (16-2) (1-0)

If that near impossible scenario were to happen, could all four teams end up making the tournament? I know it only has a .0000001 percent chance to happen, but if it did, I’m just curious what your stats say.

Hmmm....The only way this could happen is to place these 4 A-10 teams in the 10 team Southwestern Conf where the best team is a D and all the rest are F teams....Also, you would have to place the previous sentence in blue font.

In reality , this can't happen because 1) there are actually 6 teams at the top of the A-10....2) The league as whole is to balanced for 4 teams to completely dominate  3) The schedule is not balanced.....Dayton plays 5 games against the other 3...Davidson plays 3 against the other 3...SLU and VCU each play 4...which means Day has a tougher schedule and Dav has an easier  one.

So your question is kind of like......If I am in a 5 card stud poker game and I draw a Royal Flush....will i win the hand?

[BillsBeliever!!!]

2 hours ago, brianstl said:

Here you go

http://www.slubillikens.com/pdf9/5480206.pdf

Huh. Interesting that in the plus minus, French had a +14 +/- while Thatch had a -5

[EssEllYou]

9 hours ago, SLU_Lax said:

If talking plus-minus, I do want to always point out that it can be skewed by the end of the game.  If we keep French in for defense and pull him for offense (for foul shooting reasons), then (depending on the game and what happens) he may be on the floor while we give up several points and then promptly pulled before we score any points on Free Throws (so he wouldn't get credit).  At some point there will be a close game where this strategy will cause French to be a -8 or higher in the final few minutes (even if the Billikens increase their lead over those final minutes).

Yeah, I get it.  It's not perfect, but I still think it is good to consider and observe trends.