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The Bills over OSU by 2


The Wiz

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First a quick note on SIU...the sky isn't falling ...We are still a B team....SIU and Pitt are both B teams...not bad losses...just lost opportunities...we played 2 teams similar to us and lost in close games....the damage was that.we played a really poor offensive game (even for the Bills) which is hard thing to do when you are near the bottom in offense .  YET...we were able to hang in there till the final seconds because we have one of the top defenses in the game. When you have great defense , you are never out of the game. My advice is to write the SIU  game  off as an anomaly and move on....We are 6-2 at this point...which is where I had us at the beginning of the season....In the last 2 games , I had us 1-1 except turned around ...Butler loss and SIU win....it actually works out better this way....so we have.2 good wins...SH and But....B+ and A...quality wins against BE teams (A-   conf).

Which bring us to Ore St...

A game we should win against a quality team....B+

Ore St poses some unique challenges

First let's look at the report card......

.................................SLU..............................OSU.................................................SLU.............................OSU

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................F+...................................C+.................................................A.................................B+

FG%..........................D...................................B+.................................................A..................................B+

3P%..........................D-....................................C..................................................A+....18th ITN............C+

FT%...........................F.....................................D.........................................................................................

Reb............................A...................................B.................................................B-.................................B+

Top 100 ITN

BLKS....Gordon...84th....French....97th ...

.............Kelly....3rd

Pts....Tinkle...42nd

Reb.....Tinkle...28th

Stls....Goodwin....97th

......Thompson Jr......66th

Honor Roll ...the Bills Defense.

 

Some interesting things here....A lot of top rated categories covered by OSU....This guy Kelly is a shot blocking machine....We just saw a good one in Bol at SIU who was 78th ITN...Kelly is way beyond that. We have 2 good ones in French and Gordon....he is better than the 2 of them combined stat wise.... Overall they are not as good as SIU in Off and a little better in D and Reb....You say SIU wasn't that good on OFF...that is wrong ...we shut them down...something we will have to do again to OSU..

WWN2D2W.....Tinkle , Tinkle little star....Nooo...Big Star....besides being a leader in the national categories   of Pts and Reb ...he also leads the team in assists and FG%...Stop this guy....15pts or less....6reb...While that will be a big help that isn't the end of our issues...Kelley will be a big problem...shot blocker extraordinaire...Ford may have to run around in practice with a broom over his head knocking down shots....we will either have to avoid him or go around him....Putting up a bunch of 3s isn't the answer....The importance of the TO battle will be that we have to win the differential...besides Thompson Jr they have a few stealers....protect the ball....and last but not least....win the free throw battle....have I gone mad...no...OSU is a poor FT shooting team...could be a difference maker in a close game.

Bottom line...With all that said, we can beat them....They are a B+ team...having the home advantage (hopefully another big crowd) plus a defense that will disrupt them evens the game out and gives us a slight advantage....key word is slight.  If we shoot more normal this game and keep TOs down ...stop the Tinkle and avoid the blockster...we will win.

Go Bills

BTW ...even though the Bills are at 8 games OSU only has 7 so I am still a little short on data....After this game we will be playing with a full deck.

Billikid and TheChosenOne like this
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I watched the Mizzou vs Oregon state game earlier this season and I can say for a fact that Tinkle is a special player. Can shoot it from anywhere, and had a line of 17/10/6. Other than that, Thompson is there main threat from the arc. When he gets going he can really shoot. Mizzou was pretty much tied with them for most of the game except one 10-0 run that was the reason they won. Won’t be an easy game but it should be a win. They haven’t played a defense anywhere near our level.

Bills by 5!

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This is quite unfortunate for Mr. Wiley.  He did have a history of being injured while at Maryland, but we all were hoping he left that bad karma behind.  Apparently not.

Ingvi's schedule is what I thought.  Ten days to 2 weeks following an appendectomy prior to getting a release is normal, but then you have to start back slowly on the floor/playing field. So it may be another two or more weeks before he is game ready.

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2 hours ago, Billikid said:

@The Wiz, just curious, As your getting more data, do your models adjust retroactively at all? Like if Seton Hall were to beat UK tomorrow, would that help our ratings or is our win still against the team SH was the day we played them?

You make it sound as if we're losing the conference, just to make you aware. Wouldn't help us if we are on the bubble if Seaton Hall beat UK, and we beat Seaton Hall.  The committee could pull the, they were weak then card. Though, that seems unrealistic at this point. 

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3 hours ago, Billikid said:

@The Wiz, just curious, As your getting more data, do your models adjust retroactively at all? Like if Seton Hall were to beat UK tomorrow, would that help our ratings or is our win still against the team SH was the day we played them?

Yes to everything.....The data is like a moving average in the market....it takes into acct everything that has happened including a little more weight to recent trends....SH is currently a B+ team... a little bit lower than when we played them but still a great win....it looks like an A- because we beat them at their place.....A win by SH over KY would help us....SH would move back to A-....I am currently showing KY over SH by 3....a very winnable game for SH....big hype ...big crowd......big time....

This is why I had mentioned in an earlier post that we should be rooting for all our opponents to win all their games (except against us)....It only helps the Bills...and when our opponents beat good teams it helps us more.

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To add to your post Wiz, there is nothing static or meaningful about the rankings or ratings at any specific point in time during the playing season. EVERYTHING is in flux and constantly changing in a dynamic way. The value of a prior win depends upon how well the opponent is doing. New games are being played all the time by all the teams and the positioning of all teams relative to one another changes constantly. Competitive sports and league play are dynamic systems until the end of the season.

The way you do your calculations is by using a "point in time" snapshot of where are we now in relation to everyone else combined with a performance trend for each team. It is true that there are valid performance trends discernible about how specific teams are performing over time. However, performance trends are also subject to variables, like injuries involving key players, that affect the results for specific games. For example it is valid to say that our loss against SIUC might not have happened if Bess had not sustained an injury in the prior game that affected his scoring level for that game. It is also valid to say that the game against Oregon St. is winnable if Bess is able to play better and score at his normal level.

Sports teams are like the market in many ways, "the trend is your friend."

 

 

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Vegas spread 3.5 in favor of SLU. Projected scoresSLU 69.5, OrSt. 66.

Hope it ends up that way it would be nice to score close to 70.

Heading in town for some pre-game fun enjoy the game.

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Glad to see Vegas lining up with me (again)...The concern on the spread is the variability....It doesn't usually matter on the wider spreads ... a win is a win . but on the closer spreads it can make a difference....On this game , the variability is 5 pts....Bills by 4 to OSU by 1.....Which means anything within  that spread is normal.....this is different than the margin.of error..which is usually outside this  V spread and  usually about 3 pts. 

I use spreads as measuring tools...how are we doing...something is usually happening (good or bad) when we finish outside the spread variability and the margin of error.  The concern is always when the variability spread and/ or the margin of error crosses over and can change the forecasted outcome as it was in the SIU game and the Pitt game and in this one.....

If we DWWN2D2W,  as mentioned in the original post , we will win this game.

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Article in PD about today's game & quoting Ford about Demarius - how they like him & expect to use him more now that he has been exposed to the college pace.  Mentioned his 3 pt stat of 41% last year .

Watching MU stats & see Watson with 2 4/5 games after a very slow start.  Comfort level is big & hoping a lot more from Thatch & Demarius going forward.

 

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A great win...not always pretty but a win....Also within the normal spread variance of -1 to +4.

So here is an important announcement....I have a way to fix our FT shooting and get us more points /gm

I will be back to that in a moment....first let's look at our slash line...I am going to expand it a bit to FG%/ 2P%/3P%/FT%......42/ 34/ 67/ 47....which grades out to ....F / F- / A+ / F-...If you take away the poor , slow start....0-7 to start the game....we finish at 49% FG%  or an A. ...so there is a lot hidden in the numbers.  In terms of slash performance....we should have made an additional 8 FTs and 2 additional 2 pointers....8FTs + 2 two pointers = 12pts more...however...we made 4 extra 3s =12pts...so through a strange quirk we make the slash line which is always important in winning the game....

As for the FT improvement  I mentioned above ...here is the plan....We take all our foul shots from the 3 pt line.  Seriously though.. since when does your highest slash number  out of 4 become your 3P% number....only in bizzaro Billiken world.

Let's look at the rest of the numbers....

TO differential...15 vs 17 in favor of the Bills....PASS...the extra 2 TOs by OSU were worth 4 pts to the Bills ...the difference in the game....while 15 is too high the differential was more important...we still need to keep TOs around 12 for the future....

Stop Tinkle....PASS and FAIL...I was looking at 15pts and 6 reb....actual 15pts and 10 reb...all in all a pretty good job on him

Shot blocker Kelley....PASS....he had 2 blks...about half his normal....

OSU steals...PASS...a stealing team...they took 8 from us...this was a pass because we took 10 from them

OSU slash 40/27/77...PASS...pretty much kept them in check...FT% was higher than normal as we kept fouling their good foul shooter

FT battle....PASS...What??? this has to be a mistake....I said in a close game the deciding factor would be FTs....well we sure didn't beat them % wise as they trounced us 77% to 47%...so how did we pass?...we took nearly twice as many shots as they did and beat them at the line ...15pts to 13pts...another strange twist in Billiken bizzaro world.
 

A tip o' the cap to Bess ...career high performance 24pts...56/60/43 ........and to Thatch ...great performance in 1st start...16 pts...71/80/40

And finally The Bills showed again why their defense is on the Honor Roll.

Bottom line...The Bills beat a good team  by doing what they were supposed to do even though it was strange at times and not always pretty.....They faded at the end because they were gassed.....something we saw last year when they were short of players and lacked depth...hopefully we get some bodies back and ease the pressure.

We bent but didn't break...something we have done a few times this season...a mark of a good team...a mark of a winning team....

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