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The Wiz

The Bills over SIU by 1

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What a great win over Butler....For  post game analysis...see the But spread thread.

For those that didn't think it was a great win because of the swing in the spread..."how good could But be ....we whupped them"...I would say they are missing the point.....It;s not that they aren't that good ...it is that we are playing a suffocating defense.  Championship D....the best D that most of these teams will see all year. You will see it in the report card below.  Butler came in with a grade of A and while their numbers took a hit....after the game they remained an A.  How could this be? Because the computer figured that the loss to SLU was a "good" loss....ie Butler lost to a good team.

As for the Bills, we move up a notch to a grade of B.....B is good enough to win the A-10 but B+ would put us in the running for an NCAA at large spot...not to mention a better chance at winning the conference....so we are almost there. In the But spread thread I mentioned the next 2 games (But & SIU) were important for setting the tone for the rest of the season (not to mention  completing the data set for more accurate forecasting)...I said if we win 2 we are rolling....if we split , we will stay in the B to B- area and if we lose 2 ...not so good.  So we beat But ...we have the 1st win....and now we come to SIU....

This will be tricky sledding ....if you haven't figured it out from the spread in the title of this thread ...this will be a tough game....for a number of reasons...not the least of which ....they are a pretty good team. SIU enters into this game as a B- team...so this will be B- vs B and the fact we are away pretty much evens it out.....there is a  large variable spread on this game too...3 pts either way....So we could win by 4  OR lose by 2.  We can't take this game lightly.  Forecasting would be so easy if we were consistent.  One of the things I always look for are trends and one of the disturbing trends now  is we play to the competition (up or down)...couple this with the fact  that you  have a normal let down after a big game (particularly if the next game is away against an even or lesser team.) We can't take this game lightly....I like the fact that this is the Billiken Club travel trip ...the extra support will be a help. I would love to go to this game but can't get off from work...I went last year to Hinkle and it was a good time even though we got squashed by the bad guys...what a difference a year makes......If you can make the trip , I would recommend it...So it's time to look at the report card.....

.................................SLU..............................SIU.................................................SLU.............................SIU

..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................D-....................................D+.................................................A.................................B+

FG%..........................C-...................................A-..................................................A+  (14th ITN)............B

3P%..........................D.....................................A+ (13th ITN)...............................A.................................C

FT%...........................F.....................................B-..........................................................................................

Reb............................A-...................................F+..................................................B.................................B-

Top 100 ITN

BLKS....French and Gordon tied at 73rd ...2 on the list at the same time....these 2 have more blks than whole teams do.

FG%.....Fletcher...69th

Honor Roll ...the Bills Defense.

WWN2D2W...............This will be a little different then usual....Yes we have to stop Fletcher....a hot shooter right now....slashing ...61/56/80....hold this guy to 10pts and the slash to 42/33...we can do it ...till now most teams haven't bothered him much...we need to bother him....but this will be a little more difficult because....SIU has 6 players shooting A+ from the arc (40%+)...So the Bills will really have to patrol the perimeter. I would put our best defender on Fletcher and make sure the other Bills players are not giving any open shots. Hold SIU to 33% from the arc as a team...... We need to bring down the TOs  to 12....the good news is that while we are a grade D in TOs   SIU is a D-....but lets not play to their level....if we can get the TO diff up in our favor ...it is no longer a close game....we could win by 8-10 pts. We need to out rebound them and let's keep those blks coming...at least 4.

Bottom line....This game will be about... the unstoppable force  (SIU 3P shooting) against the immovable object (SLU shooting defense)...who will win the battle....we should....there shooters are on a hot streak...an unsustainable hot streak...If we bother them those numbers should come down. If we play like we did against But we win ....take away the excess TOs and we win easily.....Did I mention ...We can't take this game lightly.

I will be updating the injury report in the next few days as  info becomes available.

 

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Good information as usual.  Thanks, the wiz.  Nobody beats him.

 

 

IMG_7616.JPG

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2 hours ago, joe_davola said:

Good information as usual.  Thanks, the wiz.  Nobody beats him.

 

 

IMG_7616.JPG

He's moved up in the world.  Now the Wiz is doing Audi commercials.

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4 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

I don’t know why but this game scares me...

Every game scares me because our team has not learned how to close out games too many turnovers and missed free throws.  

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I know they are just numbers but look at the offensive stats for Butler before last Saturday's game, and the current offensive stats for SIU. Among other stats the % TOs is worse for SIU (20.1%) than what it was for But (14.3%) and what it is for SLU (18.6%). I am not saying it will be easy but it is winnable.

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5 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

I don’t know why but this game scares me...

Wouldn't call it a trap game, because SIU's a good team and they're at home. Also this is a rivalry game of sorts; the country bumpkins vs the Big city slickers. Correct me if I'm wrong but we've played SIU just about every year for 50 years. 

Hopefully  Ford and staff can get this team focused and off their sugar high of beating Butler. Also, hoping Bess' injury was minor and won't be one of those nagging things. I don't hold out much hope to see Wiley play, but don't think he's a key to a winning this game. 

More concerned about the number of TOs and squandering of points on our fast breaks. A lot of these have been unforced errors and must be cleaned up. 

Go Bills! 

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56 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

Beer is available for purchase this season at SIU Arena as well.

About time, I mean, meth has been available at SIU Arena for years. 

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There are also a lot of lower level tickets available still if you’re not traveling on the Billiken Club bus.

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1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

There are also a lot of lower level tickets available still if you’re not traveling on the Billiken Club bus.

More on this bus please?

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5 minutes ago, almaman said:

More on this bus please?

Billiken club sent out an invitation earlier in the season. 75 a person. Says it’s an “exclusive Billiken club invitation”. Not sure why they’d turn down paying customers though. 

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2 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

Billiken club sent out an invitation earlier in the season. 75 a person. Says it’s an “exclusive Billiken club invitation”. Not sure why they’d turn down paying customers though. 

I picked up a ticket today.  Call Margo Lubis at the Billiken Club for details, sounds like a hoot and a half, especially after we win.  314-977-4758.

mhg

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SIUC has five averaging double figures, ranging from Fletcher at 13.6 to Loyd at 10.3.  Bartley is at 7.5 ppg but has a season high of 18.  We have to have all five playing solid D.

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1 hour ago, Billikenbooster said:

I picked up a ticket today.  Call Margo Lubis at the Billiken Club for details, sounds like a hoot and a half, especially after we win.  314-977-4758.

mhg

I'm assuming there will be a pregame event? I'm driving up because I can't get out of work til 4. I bought 2 tickets in the second row off the court for a total of 50...

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17 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

There are also a lot of lower level tickets available still if you’re not traveling on the Billiken Club bus.

All seating (and really, all people, places and things) in Methdale are "lower level".

Except the meth.  The meth is fine.

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This is a scary game .... SIU will play with a chip on their shoulder, they are better than us (ala us and Mizzou), they will be at home, we are coming down off a huge win, we are somewhat injured with Wiley and Bess limping out of the last one, and we are still struggling trying to find the various roles these guys are supposed to play.  I think playing to the level of our competition is a good thing so maybe we can count on that.  I think Mo Valley refs will be gunning for French and Gordon and Goodwin, so we have to be careful here and not repeat a Pitt first half.

I'd also like to see Isabell stop throwing the forearm out when he's dribbling.  He's getting called way too much offensively to accumulate those type of fouls.

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7 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

This is a scary game .... SIU will play with a chip on their shoulder, they are better than us (ala us and Mizzou), they will be at home, we are coming down off a huge win, we are somewhat injured with Wiley and Bess limping out of the last one, and we are still struggling trying to find the various roles these guys are supposed to play.  I think playing to the level of our competition is a good thing so maybe we can count on that.  I think Mo Valley refs will be gunning for French and Gordon and Goodwin, so we have to be careful here and not repeat a Pitt first half.

I'd also like to see Isabell stop throwing the forearm out when he's dribbling.  He's getting called way too much offensively to accumulate those type of fouls.

I wonder if the coaching staff worked with the bigs on altering instead of block shots or if Butler just didn't try to get the ball into the paint. We really seemed to avoid fouling.

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1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

I wonder if the coaching staff worked with the bigs on altering instead of block shots or if Butler just didn't try to get the ball into the paint. We really seemed to avoid fouling.

If French's swat was altering instead of blocking, I want to see more altering. 

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Regarding the coming game with SIUC, without Bess or Wiley we can still win this game, it will just be harder to do so.

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