But over The Bills by 8

[moytoy12]

2 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Didn't realize they play such tough D per the A10 article. Good D meets mediocre O? Now I'm even more tense. 

Not to worry.  Goodwin and French are rounding into form.  Wiley is back. Tremaine will play efficiently.  CAG is unstoppable. DJ will be a menace off the bench. We good.

[slu72]

1 minute ago, moytoy12 said:

Not to worry.  Goodwin and French are rounding into form.  Wiley is back. Tremaine will play efficiently.  CAG is unstoppable. DJ will be a menace off the bench. We good.

Good, I don't want to be throwing my pizza and Heinies at the TV set. 

[Cowboy]

-JB had 7 turnovers last season at Hinkle, I expect he makes amends today, but don't try to do too much

[johnbj14]

 Today is not only a big game, but also the 6th anniversary of the passing of Coach Majerus. Hoping the guys pull out a win with crisp offense and stingy defense in his honor. 

[joe_davola]

11 minutes ago, johnbj14 said:

 Today is not only a big game, but also the 6th anniversary of the passing of Coach Majerus. Hoping the guys pull out a win with crisp offense and stingy defense in his honor. 

Those were some great times with those teams....Rick, Porter, Harriman, etc.  

Porter was given a great opportunity by Rick, and its obvious he's forever thankful for that.  He's a good guy.

[Billiken Rich]

I wish the ghost of Majerus could come back to teach our players how to use a screen......

[slu72]

35 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

I was the ghost of Majerus could come back to teach our players how to use a screen......

+1,000 or just set one. 

[RiseAndGrind]

The drinks are flowing. Bills by 45

[Old guy]

5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

This is interesting to me....As I mentioned in a previous post...there is a 5 pt margin of error due to some inconsistency in the numbers ,  unusual variables (No away games for Butler) ,  injuries to both teams,  SLU playing to the competition and some gelling of the team   I have mentioned it in this game because it has been statistically significant. A more accurate spread for this game would actual be But by 3 to 8 pts. While there is some variance in every game  it is usually insignificant.  I was thinking about doing this variable  spread concept at the beginning of this year.....There is always a lot of variance at the start of season because of small data sizes.  Another game this would have helped was the Pitt game....I ran that game a few times and finally settled on the Bills by 1....but adding the variance for that game would have made it even plus or minus 2. In addition, using the variable spread would help in changing times. during the season ..such as significant injuries, players leaving or joining the team,  team gelling or coming together. I think going forward, I will still list the point spread in the header but when I see a statistical variance, i will include it in the body of the post.

In the Butler case, it doesn't change the outcome of the game but it does improve the Bills chance of winning....going from about 15% to 43%....thus making it a  much more winnable game

Thank you Wiz, a range spread would be more accurate, but harder to handle for most people. This is particularly true for larger ranges like +/- 10 which may be more common at the beginning of the season when data is lacking.

[Major Majerus]

4 hours ago, brianstl said:

One big plus for us in this game is Butler doesn’t draw a town of fouls.  They rank 209th so far this season and 286th last season in fouls drawn per game.

Vision challenged refs will not be influenced by this statistic  

[slu72]

Win it for the Master! Need some o' your magic today, Coach Majerus. 

[The Wiz]

On 11/25/2018 at 12:33 PM, The Wiz said:

For me the next 2 games are crucial as I need these to complete my data set.  I view the next 2 games as setting the tone for the rest of the season...2-0 and we are rolling...a split and we stay in the B- area where we are now...0-2...not so good.

Butler will be our toughest challenge to date...They come in as A rated...we are listed currently at B-....close enough to win. A couple of notes...Dayton was Butler's only loss and they are a B team.. They won on a neutral site (Bahamas). We will be Butler's 1st away game at an opponent's venue. And with a sellout expected it won't be a friendly one.

Butler...good offense ....OK defense....SLU weak offense...great defense...a couple of notes....Butler doesn't defend the 3... If we can do what we did against C Ark from the arc..we could win....

WWN2D2W....Make shots....Last game we shot over 40% from 3....but couldn't make 2s...the previous games we made 2's and couldn't make 3s..we need to do both....48/36/70...FTs were better but still weak...in a close game this will be the difference...at least 70%...TOs...we give up 18 again and we lose...target of 12 and and even or better on the differential....no mistakes..  ......Baldwin....He is their main guy....hold him to 15pts ..If we bother him enough  he will hand off to Jorgenson....hold him to 14pts....if we hold these guys to the projected pts ...we win. We need to out rebound them ....Low scoring game....score at least 66pts....total pts around 130...the lower the better

Bottom line....This is a winnable game  if we make shots and avoid mistakes......One good trend is... we seem to play to the competition....with the hype of the game and a  sellout  crowd....we should rise to the occasion...In the end, the question will be,  is our defense good enough to stop their offense...the answer is yes.  make the slash line and we win...won't be easy but it can be done...Ask Dayton. 

 

What a great game....great atmosphere ...great effort....But went 8 min 11sec without a pt....great defense.

First let's look at WWN2D2W...Stop Baldwin and Jorgenson and we win......hold them to 15 and 14 pts....we did and we did...6 and 9 pts....we picked up 14pts right here on the spread....slash was pretty much on target...we needed 2 more FTs to make 70%...and FT shooting was good down the stretch when it counted....also we had twice as many FTA as But and out scored them at the line by 7 pts...Headline could have been....Bills beat But at charity line....That is a shocker. ...Blks...8-1...Bills favor......11 But TOs in the 1st half exceed their top rated game ave.of 10.5 /gm........Out rebound them....check....Low scoring game ....130 or less, the lower the better.......Check and check...score 66pts....close enough...The answer of yes to the question of ...was our D better than their O ...was correct....if you need further proof here is the But slash....28/17/ 80....great D

It wasn't all rainbows and sunshine......We had 19 TOs....unacceptable.... if we cut it down by 5 to have an even TO differential ...that would have been an additional 10 pts for a blowout. We had 8 steals which normally is great except we gave up 9 stls...plus on 8 fast breaks we only got 2 pts....again unacceptable.....so what do these items mean? It means even though we beat an A team soundly , we can do better....there is more potential.

Bottom line....If we continue to play like this and fix the weak spots.... there will be a lot more celebrating in the future.

BTW....make sure to check the Bills report card under Defense in the SIU spread thread when I post it....it will be a good one...think Honor Roll

[HoosierPal]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

What a great game....great atmosphere ...great effort....But went 8 min 11sec without a pt....great defense.

First let's look at WWN2D2W...Stop Baldwin and Jorgenson and we win......hold them to 15 and 14 pts....we did and we did...6 and 9 pts....we picked up 14pts right here on the spread....slash was pretty much on target...we needed 2 more FTs to make 70%...and FT shooting was good down the stretch when it counted....also we had twice as many FTA as But and out scored them at the line by 7 pts...Headline could have been....Bills beat But at charity line....That is a shocker. ...Blks...8-1...Bills favor......11 But TOs in the 1st half exceed their top rated game ave.of 10.5 /gm........Out rebound them....check....Low scoring game ....130 or less, the lower the better.......Check and check...score 66pts....close enough...The answer of yes to the question of ...was our D better than their O ...was correct....if you need further proof here is the But slash....28/17/ 80....great D

It wasn't all rainbows and sunshine......We had 19 TOs....unacceptable.... if we cut it down by 5 to have an even TO differential ...that would have been an additional 10 pts for a blowout. We had 8 steals which normally is great except we gave up 9 stls...plus on 8 fast breaks we only got 2 pts....again unacceptable.....so what do these items mean? It means even though we beat an A team soundly , we can do better....there is more potential.

Bottom line....If we continue to play like this and fix the weak spots.... there will be a lot more celebrating in the future.

BTW....make sure to check the Bills report card under Defense in the SIU spread thread when I post it....it will be a good one...think Honor Roll

Another telling stat is that Baldwin was forcing the action, committing 5 turn overs (with 0 assists),

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Jorgensen played only 28 minutes and scored just 9.  Few are talking about the D that Goodwin and Thatch played on him.  If I am Coach Jordan, with Baldwin locked down and McDermott in 'foul trouble' - I think it was more of a mis-match trouble- Jorgensen is on the floor more than 28.

I think the board was outguessed when French had McDermott rather than Gordon.

We also saw that their PG Thompson, who averages 6 went for 11 including two early uncontested layups.

Butler was 0-10 from the arc in the second half.

[CBFan]

8 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Another telling stat is that Baldwin was forcing the action, committing 5 turn overs (with 0 assists),

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Jorgensen played only 28 minutes and scored just 9.  Few are talking about the D that Goodwin and Thatch played on him.  If I am Coach Jordan, with Baldwin locked down and McDermott in 'foul trouble' - I think it was more of a mis-match trouble- Jorgensen is on the floor more than 28.

I think the board was outguessed when French had McDermott rather than Gordon.

We also saw that their PG Thompson, who averages 6 went for 11 including two early uncontested layups.

Butler was 0-10 from the arc in the second half.

Great find HP on the 0-10 for 3 pointers in the second half.

I held my breath every time McDermitt shot one in the second half.

The way the officiating has been this seasons I was concerned the two flops he took on his last two attempts that we would be called for a foul.

[slufanskip]

8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

What a great game....great atmosphere ...great effort....But went 8 min 11sec without a pt....great defense.

First let's look at WWN2D2W...Stop Baldwin and Jorgenson and we win......hold them to 15 and 14 pts....we did and we did...6 and 9 pts....we picked up 14pts right here on the spread....slash was pretty much on target...we needed 2 more FTs to make 70%...and FT shooting was good down the stretch when it counted....also we had twice as many FTA as But and out scored them at the line by 7 pts...Headline could have been....Bills beat But at charity line....That is a shocker. ...Blks...8-1...Bills favor......11 But TOs in the 1st half exceed their top rated game ave.of 10.5 /gm........Out rebound them....check....Low scoring game ....130 or less, the lower the better.......Check and check...score 66pts....close enough...The answer of yes to the question of ...was our D better than their O ...was correct....if you need further proof here is the But slash....28/17/ 80....great D

It wasn't all rainbows and sunshine......We had 19 TOs....unacceptable.... if we cut it down by 5 to have an even TO differential ...that would have been an additional 10 pts for a blowout. We had 8 steals which normally is great except we gave up 9 stls...plus on 8 fast breaks we only got 2 pts....again unacceptable.....so what do these items mean? It means even though we beat an A team soundly , we can do better....there is more potential.

Bottom line....If we continue to play like this and fix the weak spots.... there will be a lot more celebrating in the future.

BTW....make sure to check the Bills report card under Defense in the SIU spread thread when I post it....it will be a good one...think Honor Roll

I don't know that cutting down our TO's by 5 would result in 10 points. Wouldn't that be assuming we score on all 5 of those possessions?

[kmbilliken]

8 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I don't know that cutting down our TO's by 5 would result in 10 points. Wouldn't that be assuming we score on all 5 of those possessions?

Averaging a point per possession is good. So 5 TOs may result in 5 points.

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I don't know that cutting down our TO's by 5 would result in 10 points. Wouldn't that be assuming we score on all 5 of those possessions?

 

No that is a combo stat....that shows on average every TO results in  about 2 pt swing to the stealing team....ie....a loss of .8 to the team losing the ball and a gain to the stealing team of 1.2 pts       .8 + 1.2 =   2 pt / diff in TOs....thus last night's game should have resulted in a 10 pt swing to Butler........4pt loss to the Bills and a 6 pt gain for But........Had the Bills had a more normal and doable 14 TOs and matched But....You would have not only seen a win ....but witnessed a blowout.  Butler was lucky to be within 12.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, CBFan said:

Great find HP on the 0-10 for 3 pointers in the second half.

I held my breath every time McDermitt shot one in the second half.

The way the officiating has been this seasons I was concerned the two flops he took on his last two attempts that we would be called for a foul.

If you  liked Butler's  0-10 from the arc in the 2nd half....then you will love their 0-16 from the same distance.....Butler started the game shooting 50% from 3 (4-8) ... that is when they got their 8 pt lead....then we adjusted...and shut them down for the rest of the game ....Butler finishing  with an 0-16 run from the arc.  Remember , this is not a bad shooting team but one that came into this game with a B average and was completely shut down after the adjustment. Great job by the team.

[Old guy]

My point of view. Prior to the game, basing my thinking on the Vegas spread, I really thought we should expect a game of fairly even matched teams with SLU having the  upper hand in defense and But having the upper hand in offense. I thought the game was winnable, as it was, but I never expected the outcome we got. Dealing with the spread in terms of ranges I thought we could win or lose the game by a few points, and that But could achieve the same outcome. In other words a coin toss type of deal between different but equally capable teams.

Winning the game by 12 pts was a totally unexpected outcome to me. As Wiz says, a blowout in our favor. As of today I really think we are a better team, at least potentially, than what the stats are showing up to date. I hope the team that played last night against Butler is the real Bills team that is coming together as a team after the initial period of adjustment for the season. 

I looked today at the rest of the non conference schedule and honestly I think we can win all the remaining games with the possible exception of Florida State. Wow! I would just love to see this outcome for us. 

[David King]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

 

I looked today at the rest of the non conference schedule and honestly I think we can win all the remaining games with the possible exception of Florida State. Wow! I would just love to see this outcome for us. 

Houston will also be a tough road game. They sre 6-0, and beat #18 Oregon last night.

[Old guy]

No question we will have a number of tough games against capable opponents left in the non conference schedule. I am not saying they will be cake walks, but I think we can win them all with the exception of Florida State.

[VeniceMenace]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

No question we will have a number of tough games against capable opponents left in the non conference schedule. I am not saying they will be cake walks, but I think we can win them all with the exception of Florida State.

On paper, agreed....they have to stay out of foul trouble or they’ll have more Pitt-like losses, starting with SIUC on the road.

[slu72]

What's getting scary is how we are handling the presses being thrown at us late when we have the lead. Isabell, like Hochman cited, is like a deer in the headlights. We need to pass the ball rather than try and break it off the dribble. It's too easy to trap the dribbler. I wonder also if Jacobs doesn't have the best handles of all our guards. 

[moytoy12]

8 minutes ago, slu72 said:

What's getting scary is how we are handling the presses being thrown at us late when we have the lead. Isabell, like Hochman cited, is like a deer in the headlights. We need to pass the ball rather than try and break it off the dribble. It's too easy to trap the dribbler. I wonder also if Jacobs doesn't have the best handles of all our guards. 

It’s hard to tell on TV, but it looks like a combo of bad decision making from Isabell and the fact that he has no decent passing outlets. Our players look like they all run up court leaving Isabell stranded.  Maybe thats not the case, but how it appears on TV.

[cheeseman]

4 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

It’s hard to tell on TV, but it looks like a combo of bad decision making from Isabell and the fact that he has no decent passing outlets. Our players look like they all run up court leaving Isabell stranded.  Maybe thats not the case, but how it appears on TV.

It was only at the end of the game when Isabell was bringing the ball up by himself.  Butler started pressing much earlier and we beat it by passing.  My guess is that they wanted the ball in a good FT shooter at the end.