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But over The Bills by 8


The Wiz

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The C Ark game didn't hurt us as we finished within the margin of error ...3-5 pts.  The bad news is we missed an opportunity to bolster our numbers with a blowout...20+pts....We get rid of the 5 extra TOs and we win by 22.  Looking ahead we face the most difficult part of our schedule including conference games.  3 of the next 6 games will be against A rated teams....Butler A...Houston A ..........Fla St A+.  

For me the next 2 games are crucial as I need these to complete my data set.  I view the next 2 games as setting the tone for the rest of the season...2-0 and we are rolling...a split and we stay in the B- area where we are now...0-2...not so good.

Butler will be our toughest challenge to date...They come in as A rated...we are listed currently at B-....close enough to win. A couple of notes...Dayton was Butler's only loss and they are a B team.. They won on a neutral site (Bahamas). We will be Butler's 1st away game at an opponent's venue. And with a sellout expected it won't be a friendly one.

Let's look at the report card going in....

.........................................Off.............................................................................Def

.......................SLU...................................But.................................SLU...............................But

PPG...................D-....................................C+..........................................A-..............................B+

FG%...................D+....................................A-.........................................A-................................C+

3P%....................D.....................................B...........................................B..................................D

FT%....................F+.....................................B................................................................................

Reb.....................B+.....................................D-..........................................B+ .............................B+

Nationally ranked

PPG....Baldwin...19.7...69th

Assts...Baldwin.....5.5....44th

Blks....French........1.83....76th

Notables.....FTs...Bess...85.3%

.............................Baldwin...84.4%

Butler...good offense ....OK defense....SLU weak offense...great defense...a couple of notes....Butler doesn't defend the 3... If we can do what we did against C Ark from the arc..we could win....

WWN2D2W....Make shots....Last game we shot over 40% from 3....but couldn't make 2s...the previous games we made 2's and couldn't make 3s..we need to do both....48/36/70...FTs were better but still weak...in a close game this will be the difference...at least 70%...TOs...we give up 18 again and we lose...target of 12 and and even or better on the differential....no mistakes..  ......Baldwin....He is their main guy....hold him to 15pts ..If we bother him enough  he will hand off to Jorgenson....hold him to 14pts....if we hold these guys to the projected pts ...we win. We need to out rebound them ....Low scoring game....score at least 66pts....total pts around 130...the lower the better

Player status

SLU...11/ 24....Wiley(leg) and Welmer (left ankle) ..Listed as questionable...unclear on their status for Sat...

But...11/23...Hastings (knee)..Questionable....has missed 5 games....unclear for Sat     11/21...Golden (shoulder)...out indefinitely   11/18...Tucker out..eligibility    11/12...Nze...out  ...transfer eligibility 

Bottom line....This is a winnable game  if we make shots and avoid mistakes......One good trend is... we seem to play to the competition....with the hype of the game and a  sellout  crowd....we should rise to the occasion...In the end, the question will be,  is our defense good enough to stop their offense...the answer is yes.  make the slash line and we win...won't be easy but it can be done...Ask Dayton. 

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Figured , especially since couldn't find anyone on butler with that name.  He posted a pic of him from Friday night without crutches. I guess he didnt want them in the pic, but damn I was hoping he didnt have them anymore

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This game will present an interesting match-up.  Butler starts four wings and one big.  McDermott is listed as a forward at 6'6", but he is a three point shooter.  Either French or Gordon will have to guard him, and that means pulling away from the paint. 

Butler plays 7 double minutes, plus two others averaging just under 10.  But like the Bills, only 7 players are counted on the score.

Butler has two 6'10" bigs, but normally they only play one at a time.  Occasionally you will see both, but that's not the typical lineup. 

Both McDermott and Jorgensen are hitting nearly 45% from the three.  That makes arc defense, not helping in the paint, critical.  Whomever guards McDermott must stay on him when Baldwin or Thompson penetrates.  We likely will play a 4 guard lineup a significant amount of time.

Baldwin is their main man, averaging just under 20 ppg. He is only hitting 25% from the three this year, but is a career 33% shooter. Whomever has him (assume Bess/Thatch) has to stay up on him and cut off the dribble, and get help in the lane.

Their PG Thompson is not much of a scorer but has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.  So perhaps Isabell can limit his damage.

The Bulldogs are only +1 on the boards.  That has a lot to do with their lineups.  Baldwin, at 6'0", is their leading rebounder.  He is also excellent at grabbing the board and turning it into a fast break.  The Bills need to absolutely control the boards.

For me, the key is to smother Baldwin.  If Bess, with 6 inches on him, can stop Kamar and hold him to something well under his average, and if McDermott doesn't go off from the arc, this game is winable.  Let Jorgensen get his 20, but hold the others down.

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29 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

This game will present an interesting match-up.  Butler starts four wings and one big.  McDermott is listed as a forward at 6'6", but he is a three point shooter.  Either French or Gordon will have to guard him, and that means pulling away from the paint. 

Butler plays 7 double minutes, plus two others averaging just under 10.  But like the Bills, only 7 players are counted on the score.

Butler has two 6'10" bigs, but normally they only play one at a time.  Occasionally you will see both, but that's not the typical lineup. 

Both McDermott and Jorgensen are hitting nearly 45% from the three.  That makes arc defense, not helping in the paint, critical.  Whomever guards McDermott must stay on him when Baldwin or Thompson penetrates.  We likely will play a 4 guard lineup a significant amount of time.

Baldwin is their main man, averaging just under 20 ppg. He is only hitting 25% from the three this year, but is a career 33% shooter. Whomever has him (assume Bess/Thatch) has to stay up on him and cut off the dribble, and get help in the lane.

Their PG Thompson is not much of a scorer but has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.  So perhaps Isabell can limit his damage.

The Bulldogs are only +1 on the boards.  That has a lot to do with their lineups.  Baldwin, at 6'0", is their leading rebounder.  He is also excellent at grabbing the board and turning it into a fast break.  The Bills need to absolutely control the boards.

For me, the key is to smother Baldwin.  If Bess, with 6 inches on him, can stop Kamar and hold him to something well under his average, and if McDermott doesn't go off from the arc, this game is winable.  Let Jorgensen get his 20, but hold the others down.

I would start with Gordon on him and when Foreman is on the court he would get the assignment.  It has been pretty limited, but I think Gordon has shown an ability to play defense on the perimeter.  Foreman last season proved to be a good perimeter defender.

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

I would start with Gordon on him and when Foreman is on the court he would get the assignment.  It has been pretty limited, but I think Gordon has shown an ability to play defense on the perimeter.  Foreman last season proved to be a good perimeter defender.

My thoughts exactly......

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

I would start with Gordon on him and when Foreman is on the court he would get the assignment.  It has been pretty limited, but I think Gordon has shown an ability to play defense on the perimeter.  Foreman last season proved to be a good perimeter defender.

-I can see this, just need CAG to stay out of foul trouble as would like to see him exploit his advantages on the offensive end for much of the game, heck, the entire team needs to stay out of foul trouble against a good opponent

-I hope we can impose our will on them rather than us adjusting to them

-it is a dreary Monday in StL and I am glowing with excitement for this game on Saturday afternoon!

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1 hour ago, brianstl said:

I would start with Gordon on him and when Foreman is on the court he would get the assignment.  It has been pretty limited, but I think Gordon has shown an ability to play defense on the perimeter.  Foreman last season proved to be a good perimeter defender.

I wouldn't mind seeing Thatch get heavy minutes this game.  His perimeter defense has been superb.  

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Took a look at the Butler forum to see what they were saying about this game....

Let’s just say they’re still very butt hurt about the game (and season) in 2013 when we went into Hinkle and beat them, our second of three wins over them that season. That bus trip and game is still probably my favorite memory as a SLU fan. They claim we were loud and obnoxious (probably true) and that “several fans were booted from Hinkle for taunting other fans and players” (definitely untrue). 

https://butlerhoops.com/forum/index.php?threads/butler-bulldogs-5-1-vs-slu-5-1-12-1-2018.2387/

 

Anyway, I would definitely like to extract some revenge for the waxing they put on our six man team last year. 

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