The Wiz Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 First of all @slu72.....I know every OOC game makes you nervous...We've got this game....These are words I don't use very often. N. Ala is a bad team...we are talking F-...Top 10 in bad teams. They were Div 2 last year....this will be their 2nd D1 game since becoming D1....In that 1st game they lost to Samford ( C-...a team lesser than Troy ) by 17 pts.....Well you get the idea...we got this one. Of course with some poor shooting or sloppy play we could make a game out of this....but at best N. AL should only be able to hang with us for a little while. Blackmon is their guy to stop. So with a lot of the talk on the board about the Bills shaky play coming out of the gate...how are we doing relative to everyone else...we have come down another notch to B-...so 2 notches in 2 games. Here is a breakdown by category..... .........................Off...........................................Def PPG..................D..............................................B+ FG%.................D+.............................................C 3P%...................F .............................................C FT%...................F................................................ Reb....................C+.............................................B- So what does this mean? ...Based on a small sample size....We are actually doing better offensively than last year ....D vs F- but still have a ways to go. On Def, we are doing slightly worse... B- vs B+ but still doing OK Bottom line....We need to have a good game ...ie win by 20+ points ....not so much for the win but to get in sync offensively so we have a chance in the next game...Seton Hall...our 1st real test.. Target slash line.....45/33/ 70...This slash line is not a high bar...it grades out at....C/ D- / D-........12 TOs...4 stls ...3 blks Put it together Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Not only are they new to D-I this season, but they've got more new players than we do. They have 8 freshmen (1 redshirting) and 5 juco transfers (2 seniors, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobillsgo Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Looking forward to seeing some Ingvi and more of Thatch and Jacobs this game. Wonder if KCH will be available. I’ve given up on tweeting at Stu to ask for injury updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 All I want from this game is good free throw shooting, a decent shooting night from 3, and some dunks. If they win by 20+ but still can’t shoot I’ll be extremely worried moving forward. moytoy12 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I understand we cant shoot right now, but a win by antthing less than 25 will break me TF out. North roll tide lost to samford by 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 hours ago, dlarry said: All I want from this game is good free throw shooting, a decent shooting night from 3, and some dunks. If they win by 20+ but still can’t shoot I’ll be extremely worried moving forward. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 hours ago, dlarry said: All I want from this game is good free throw shooting, a decent shooting night from 3, and some dunks. If they win by 20+ but still can’t shoot I’ll be extremely worried moving forward. Isabell is 2-12 from 3-point land and one of those makes was the bank shot. We really need him to be around his 3-point percentage from last year - 34%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I expect Isabel to continue last year's stats - he has a pure stroke - u see it in warm-ups - I think he'll warm up as he enters his comfort zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prebilliken Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is my honest to God take: I'm happy this is a terrible team, I want see this team do a number of things tonight in order to ramp up to the showdown against the hall: 1) Don't take a bad team for granted/match the intensity of play to the level of pre-season hype: The Bills have come out sleepily in both games against inferior opponents, I want to see them assert their will and play with mean-spirited dominance, physically dominate an inferior team, don't let them breathe for a minute. The mentality to win and the mentality to dominate are both learned behaviors, I want a good class session tonight. 2) Focus on ball movement: Use this as an opportunity for a final tune-up before a big early season test. Trust in the offense, remember the sets, play with pace, but don't hurry. 3) Convert on fast breaks: We're better than this team, and we can run the floor on them, but it doesn't matter if the final shot on the break doesn't go down. I want this team to start knowing where each other are on the floor without even having to physically see each other. 4) Make your damn free throws gents: They are going to hack away at us to even have a chance defensively, its a good chance to see the ball go through the net from the charity stripes. This is essentially a practice game against a D1 opponent, good, the team needs it, the schedule ramps up quickly here. I've actually loved the mentality of this team regardless of the less than stellar performances, people seem motivated but not frustrated, disappointed, but not dysfunctional. I want us going into the game at the Hall with high levels of confidence and a solid sense of improvement. I'm looking forward to tonight. LETS. GO. BILLS. Billiken Rich, 2010andBeyond, Brighton and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 IIRC our first two games last year before playing VT were pretty bad, and VT ended up being one of our better games all year. edit: nvm, although last year was a slow start too, this years first two games were much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, prebilliken said: This is essentially a practice game against a D1 opponent, good, the team needs it, the schedule ramps up quickly here. I've actually loved the mentality of this team regardless of the less than stellar performances, people seem motivated but not frustrated, disappointed, but not dysfunctional. I want us going into the game at the Hall with high levels of confidence and a solid sense of improvement. I'm looking forward to tonight. LETS. GO. BILLS. On this last point, there was a fair amount of frustration between players last game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, moytoy12 said: On this last point, there was a fair amount of frustration between players last game. I agree with you. And watching the replay, Danny Mac noted the frustration also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prebilliken Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 hours ago, HoosierPal said: I agree with you. And watching the replay, Danny Mac noted the frustration also. Fair enough. I still think that the "vibe" from the players on social media still reads like I'd like it to. Frustration can be a good motivator, a little frustration is good, perhaps even necessary when expectations are not being me. Its when frustration exceeds motivation that it becomes problematic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 13 hours ago, dlarry said: All I want from this game is good free throw shooting, a decent shooting night from 3, and some dunks. If they win by 20+ but still can’t shoot I’ll be extremely worried moving forward. Free throw shooting....it was better. Still need improvement 3 point shooting....at least they were smart enough to not jack up 25+. Dunks...got a couple Not enough improvement I’m expecting bad things this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I will be happy if we still have chance at halftime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Agree the FT shooting improved in this game, but whatever improvement there was did not reach French. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Well ...we won....that's better than losing....and their were some positives. We needed to have no more than 12 TOs....instead we came in with an outstanding rate of 8....remember if you can't shoot you can make some of it up by not turning the ball over.....The difference in the game....14 vs 8 TOs....-6 for the Bills = 12 pts and there is the margin for the win.......to make the projected slash....we needed 2 more 3s and 2 more FTs =6pts +2pts =8 pts plus the 12 from above makes 20pts...add 2 pts for the technical....and you pretty much make the projected spread. Now let's look at it another way...I am going to expand the slash to reveal an important stat....FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT%......47/ 57/ 25/ 63.. Translated into a grade it looks like this.......B/ A+/ F-/ F- and here is what N AL looked like....F-/ F-/ F- / C......2pt shooting saved us Also a positive was stls and blks coming in at 8 and 6 ....doubling the the projected 4 and 3. Also I thought the passing was excellent. On the negative side we were out rebounded....39-34....the difference being entirely offensive rebounding...8 to 3....yes it was "offensive" rebounding Of course you don't need me to tell you the 3pt and FT shooting was terrible....yes I know we are improving....but we are still at the F- level and F- isn't going to cut it. Tonight's game didn't help our overall numbers or grade....I am thinking we may slip back another notch to C+....we will see ...and as for N AL ...they are one of the few teams that can absorb a double digit loss and maybe improve their grade...I will post here tomorrow with the new grades. Btw...Grats to Bess who had a double double...16 pts and 10 reb I now await Wed night's big game... Seton Hall vs Neb...Should be an interesting spread thread on Thurs for Saturday's game with the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Here are the updated grades.....SLU moves from B- to C......N AL moves from F- to D-...What does this mean?.... It means if we played them again tonight we would be favored by 14. Are we just an average team?...No , but we are trending toward average...I have about 30% of the data I need to make accurate forecasts and determinations....the next 5 games will be important to me for data collection and to the team to shape who they are and what they will be....Here is what the next 5 games look like....;... SH....A+ Pitt....B C Ark...D- But.....A- SIU....C For now it on to the SH vs Neb game tonight where Neb (A+)is favored over SH (A+) by 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 -Wiz, 57% from 2pt is an A+? that seems low, what are your bands for ranking 2pt shooting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -Wiz, 57% from 2pt is an A+? that seems low, what are your bands for ranking 2pt shooting? At this time , if you can shoot 55.9% or better ...that is outstanding ..A+....53.3 will get you A-....This is 1 leg of the 3 legged step stool....which is good enough against weak teams but will not work against good teams ...we need all 3 legs to be successful....2P..3P..FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 If French wasn't limited from being in foul trouble all game, we would have won the game by more than 20 points. He was the best player on the court last night in his 19 minutes of play even with the foul trouble. Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 All those MBM's who said Coach's concern over chemistry was 'coach speak', they need to take two steps back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 i think the best player on the floor was bess. he does it all on both ends. yes foreman and french had decent offensive games, but foreman was not stellar on defense and french once again in foul trouble and missing free throws. bess is the guy that we seem to be able to count on all the time. nothing espn worthy, but dependable and quality. Zink likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Bess has been our glue guy since the day he arrived. I looked at Goodwin as our spiritual leader last year. This year that seems to be missing. I don't know if it's being paired with Isabell, who we do need because we are a scoring challenged team, but that's got to get solved and quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 If I was Travis I'd find the video of our game against VTech last year and play it for these guys just to show them what's possible if they pull together and play with heart. billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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