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Taj79

Around the A10 Composite

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Need Davidson to win 2 of three against Temple, Wichita state, or UNC

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55 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Current status: One-bid conference.

Goodness gracious. That is not good. And the sad thing is that its mostly still preseason projections and not a majority of the terrible performances by the A10 yet. 

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Two issues come to mind: 1.there is still room for some of the A10 teams to show signs of life in them. 2. If there is no significant improvement as the season goes on we better win the A10 conference.

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6 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Two issues come to mind: 1.there is still room for some of the A10 teams to show signs of life in them. 2. If there is no significant improvement as the season goes on we better win the A10 conference.

if the conference is as weak as it is currently showing winning the conference wont be enough.   we have to dominate it and the non conference.   this is all assuming we lose in Brooklyn.   if we win there it doesnt matter.   but one would hate to bet on 3 games in new york.  

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I agree it is way too early to reach any firm conclusions about SLU or about A10.

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29 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I agree it is way too early to reach any firm conclusions about SLU or about A10.

We'll know a lot more a week from now.

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Watching Seton Hall play against Nebraska, they don’t look special. Can’t shoot, can’t defend, but get to the line a lot. Only 2-5 from the line though

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At the U12, Seton Hall is down 14-10 

4-13 shooting

0-3 from three

2-5 free throws

1 more rebound

look beatable to me

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3 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

At the U12, Seton Hall is down 14-10 

4-13 shooting

0-3 from three

2-5 free throws

1 more rebound

look beatable to me

Beatable by whom?

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4 hours ago, Pistol said:

Current status: One-bid conference.

One bid conference if the season were to end today. Long season though, we’ll see.

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51 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

At the U12, Seton Hall is down 14-10 

4-13 shooting

0-3 from three

2-5 free throws

1 more rebound

look beatable to me

This could be an ugly game.

If this is how Seton Hall shoots the ball im going to set the over under for the game at 31. Bills hit 1 of 2 free throws with 2 seconds left to win 16-15

Its going to be like watching a 6th grade girls CYC game.

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16 minutes ago, dlarry said:

This could be an ugly game.

If this is how Seton Hall shoots the ball im going to set the over under for the game at 31. Bills hit 1 of 2 free throws with 2 seconds left to win 16-15

Its going to be like watching a 6th grade girls CYC game.

I coached  a 6th grade girls team game in a tournament we won 7-5. It was rough to watch.

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2 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Beatable by whom?

Nebraska

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Nebraska beat Seton Hall by 23 pts, a good beating over the expected spread of about 8 pts. This means that either they are going to come at us really hard, or that they are not as hot as their ranking indicates. Either way it will be great if we manage to win.

Seton Hall had only had 1 official game prior to Nebraska, it was against Wagner (ranked in the high 200s), which they won by 40 pts or so. We are neither Wagner nor Nebraska, this is going to be interesting to watch. 

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Prior to tonight's game Kenpom had Seton Hall at 50, Nebraska at 27. Given the magnitude of Nebraska's win, Seton Hall will go down in the Kenpom rankings, I do not know by how much. SLU is currently at 81. Reach your own conclusions.

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6 hours ago, Pistol said:

Current status: One-bid conference.

No disrespect to KenPom... but he is wrong....

Here is where we are today with about 30% of the data.

B+.......ST.J

B.....VCU... Day

B-.....Dav

C+....Duq...RI

C....The Bills...St. B....GM

C-.... UMass

D+.....LaS....GW

D-....Rich....Ford

I do agree ....A-10 is looking like a 1 team conf bid...

A couple of other points.... The reports of the demise of the A-10 are premature....The conference is down substantially from where it was a few years ago but so are a number of other conferences. In addition some of the weaker conferences have come up quite a bit... Bottom line...Parity has set in....A-10 right now is a B- conference...since SLU has been in the conference,  the A-10 has had a range of A- to B-...so this is ...so far ...within the norm.  We will revisit the A-10 standings again the first week in Dec. when there is a more  complete set of data.

Finally regarding the key match up tonight Neb vs SH....confirms my suspicion that Neb is a possible Final 4 team. Neb squashed SH by 23 pts....I had Neb  by 14...an impressive win by the Huskers.  I still need a couple of more weeks to analyze them ...but for now they are trending F4.

Btw , don't get the wrong idea about SH...any talk of them being beatable by us is also premature. The match up of 2 powerhouses  ... Neb and SH both A+ teams...brought the numbers down as they beat up on each other....One positive for us will be a possible let down by SH after a loss in their big game...Even with a 23 pt loss SH will be a heavy favorite this weekend against SLU.  I will have the numbers tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

No disrespect to KenPom... but he is wrong....

Here is where we are today with about 30% of the data.

B+.......ST.J

B.....VCU... Day

B-.....Dav

C+....Duq...RI

C....The Bills...St. B....GM

C-.... UMass

D+.....LaS....GW

D-....Rich....Ford

I do agree ....A-10 is looking like a 1 team conf bid...

A couple of other points.... The reports of the demise of the A-10 are premature....The conference is down substantially from where it was a few years ago but so are a number of other conferences. In addition some of the weaker conferences have come up quite a bit... Bottom line...Parity has set in....A-10 right now is a B- conference...since SLU has been in the conference,  the A-10 has had a range of A- to B-...so this is ...so far ...within the norm.  We will revisit the A-10 standings again the first week in Dec. when there is a more  complete set of data.

Finally regarding the key match up tonight Neb vs SH....confirms my suspicion that Neb is a possible Final 4 team. Neb squashed SH by 23 pts....I had Neb  by 14...an impressive win by the Huskers.  I still need a couple of more weeks to analyze them ...but for now they are trending F4.

Btw , don't get the wrong idea about SH...any talk of them being beatable by us is also premature. The match up of 2 powerhouses  ... Neb and SH both A+ teams...brought the numbers down as they beat up on each other....One positive for us will be a possible let down by SH after a loss in their big game...Even with a 23 pt loss SH will be a heavy favorite this weekend against SLU.  I will have the numbers tomorrow.

How can one say Mason = SLU?

wiz, I’m starting to question your methods. I don’t know if Pomeroy is the wrong one here.

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19 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

How can one say Mason = SLU?

wiz, I’m starting to question your methods. I don’t know if Pomeroy is the wrong one here.

Well we still have a few   weeks of data to go.... but for now GM = SLU

Do you think Pomeroy is right ...That SLU is number 1 right now....seems like a stretch.....

But maybe in 3 weeks we will agree.

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Wiz, I think you have made a mistake by declaring Pomeroy to be wrong at this time. This is plainly incorrect. You can claim to be closer to being correct than Pomeroy is at this time, and he can also claim exactly the same thing. The nature of basketball itself and the nature of statistics does NOT allow anyone to claim to be correct, as you yourself say, until there is enough data available. And then, even after the first 8 games, there will still be a certain margin of error in any probability statements made based upon the stats of X number of prior games. The margin of error will be markedly reduced after 8 games, allowing pretty accurate probabilistic estimates, and it will continue going down slowly as more data accumulates. There is always room for chance events, like injuries, to change things up significantly. You may change your opinion or your ranking or your predictions when the new data becomes available, and so can Pomeroy. 

In reality what you are both doing is refining your models with new data as it becomes available, and in doing so your results will approach those of Pomeroy's as the season progresses. The field of probability has no absolute rights and no absolute wrongs, what you both are providing is approximations to reality which will become increasingly refined and closer to one another in time. 

Control your hubris Wiz, you are very good at this game, but so is  Pomeroy.

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, I think you have made a mistake by declaring Pomeroy to be wrong at this time. This is plainly incorrect. You can claim to be closer to being correct than Pomeroy is at this time, and he can also claim exactly the same thing. The nature of basketball itself and the nature of statistics does NOT allow anyone to claim be correct, as you yourself say, until there is enough data available. And then, even after the first 8 games, there will still be a certain margin of error in any probability statements made based upon the stats of X number of prior games. The margin of error will be markedly reduced after 8 games, allowing pretty accurate probabilistic estimates, and it will continue going down slowly as more data accumulates. There is always room for chance events, like injuries, to change things up significantly. You may change your opinion or your ranking or your predictions when the new data becomes available, and so can Pomeroy. 

In reality what you are both doing is refining your models with new data as it becomes available, and in doing so your results with approach those of Pomeroy's as the season progresses. The field of probability has no absolute rights and no absolute wrongs, what you both are providing is approximations to reality which will become increasingly refined and closer to one another in time. 

Control your hubris Wiz, you are very good at this game, but so is  Pomeroy.

Maybe wrong was a little strong....How about Pomeroy and I disagree.....

I like Pomeroy...I follow him and many times we are close...just not now ....During the limited data period is when there is the greatest divergence. This year it seems to be more ...not just with Pomeroy but with a number of prognosticators.  Also,  I think the parity , I mentioned above has something to do with it. .   I think when there is more parity, it is harder to pick winners...to pick standings...to pick ratings.  Imagine a time when all 353 teams would be bunched together.  We are not there now ...but we are much more so then we were 10 years ago. Yes there are still elite teams...but not quite as dominant as previous years. I think the new NBA minor league will continue to drain off good players. which will continue the trend toward parity. I don't think  Loy of Chicago was an outlier...I think we shall see more and more newcomers as time goes on...Nebraska might be one of them this year. I think at some point SLU will be there. We were there during the RM years .  We are getting good players during the Ford years....which is the 1st step. Part of the problem has been the inability to hold onto them. Not only S2 last year but this year's loss of Santos was huge. 1 player can make a difference and he was a difference maker.  The point is we will not always lose good players to situations. When we hold on to the good players we will win....and then the parity will work in our favor.

I have texted Pomeroy an XO.

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