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The Wiz's preseason forecast


The Wiz

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Here is an update .....

Projected season record with a B+ finish.............................22-8....NIT ..this does not take into account an auto bid....(1st place finish or A-10 tourney win) ....to the Dance.

Best case scenario.... A finish.... (everything goes right)....26-4....NCAA

Worst case scenario...B- finish....(everything goes wrong)...18-12...Go home ...again not taking an auto bid (win A-10 tourney) into account or a good showing in the A-10 tourney which could lead to an NIT bid

 

Correction.....These totals are missing 1 win...The program did not count the  N Ala  win because it thought that it was a D-2 school....which it was....It becomes D-1 this year....The correct figures are as follows....

Projected finish.....23-8

Best case................27-4

Worst case..............19-12

Edited by The Wiz
Correction
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15 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Here is an update .....

Projected season record with a B+ finish.............................22-8....NIT ..this does not take into account an auto bid....(1st place finish or A-10 tourney win) ....to the Dance.

Best case scenario.... A finish.... (everything goes right)....26-4....NCAA

Worst case scenario...B- finish....(everything goes wrong)...18-12...Go home ...again not taking an auto bid (win A-10 tourney) into account or a good showing in the A-10 tourney which could lead to an NIT bid

Winning the A-10 (and the win record that comes with it) should also secure a bid right?

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5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season.

For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....preseason...and after the 8th game.  This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model gradually integrating the real data with the forecasting tool and drop the Bayesian after the first 8 games  (after the SIU game on Dec 5)....btw that is 8 real games....so no Quin or UMSL.  As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

 

A-10

The Bills.................B+......... NCAA  35% or   NIT 80%

Dav.........................B+.......... NCAA  35% or  NIT 80%

Day..........................B............NIT  50%

RI.............................B............NIT...50%

St. J.........................B............NIT...50%

VCU.........................B............NIT...50%

GM..........................B-

St. B........................B-

Mass.......................C+

Rich.........................C+

Duq..........................C

LaS...........................C

GW............................C-

Ford...........................D

 

Variance from this model to the end of the season is 2 notches.....For example....The Bills range starting at B+ is from A to B-.   An A is a best case scenario.... we gel quickly and everything falls into place....minimal injuries...our new  players develop quickly...we start making shots  etc....a  B- is a worst case scenario....opposite of above...players don't develop, we lose players to injuries or otherwise,  we shoot like last year   etc   

Speaking of last year ....My beginning forecast for last year's Bills team was C+....we finished at C+.....nearly 60 % of last year's preseason A-10 picks finished on the money or 1 notch away.  All 14 teams finished within 2 notches.

The A-10 overall this year is predicted to finish at B+ among conferences.....this is its historical average since the Bills have been a member. ....and up from last year's low of B.

Bottomline....The B+ is a significant jump this year particularly in light of the conference being better too.   Finally, barring a catastrophe, the nervous Nellies and hand wringers can breathe a sigh of relief....we will be a good (better than last year) team.  Will we be in the post season?  We will have a better idea on Dec 6  (8th game}.... In the meantime , it looks promising.

I love when the Wiz's preseason prediction comes out - I partially read it, print it out, and crumble up the paper into balls to practice my jump shot into the office garbage can.  

Backhands Prediction: 25-5, NCAA bid.  This year is a build up to next year's final four run.

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12 minutes ago, BACKHANDtheRICAN said:

I love when the Wiz's preseason prediction comes out - I partially read it, print it out, and crumble up the paper into balls to practice my jump shot into the office garbage can.  

Backhands Prediction: 25-5, NCAA bid.  This year is a build up to next year's final four run.

Janitor must get a lot of putbacks. 

JMM28 and billikenbill like this
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1 hour ago, Glorydays2013 said:

Winning the A-10 (and the win record that comes with it) should also secure a bid right?

i believe at this time there is no guarantee the A10 this coming season is a multi-bid conference.   we will probably have a better idea of that as we get into the conference games.   Typically the A10 is at least a 3 bid league, but i fear the conference strength is going to be down this year.   good thing we have the tough non-conference schedule which might protect us if we indeed win the regular season but screw up in Brooklyn.  

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i believe at this time there is no guarantee the A10 this coming season is a multi-bid conference.   we will probably have a better idea of that as we get into the conference games.   Typically the A10 is at least a 3 bid league, but i fear the conference strength is going to be down this year.   good thing we have the tough non-conference schedule which might protect us if we indeed win the regular season but screw up in Brooklyn.  

We said that last year and got 3 though. I would put money that Davidson is in too 

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It will be what it will be, it is too early to worry about the perceived weakness of the A10 until you see them play and confirm that they are as weak as they appear to be. We do have a nice non-conference schedule to help up at the end of the season as you say. We will see, give it, as the Wiz says, about 8 games before you start projecting into the future. We will do just fine this year.

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Another update.....

There is a strange quirk in the forecast.....It is not showing a symmetrical pattern of wins and losses....

I am showing we lose 4 going into Feb....we are projected to arrive in  Feb at 17-4....Looking good...Heading toward the Dance....and then ....we lose 4 in Feb (3-4 for the month)...and finish the season at 22-8....The good news is those losses are close games and if we are playing decent ( low TOs and half way decent shooting) we can win at least 2...If we are playing well maybe take 3 of those 4....and again be Dancing....However if things do not go well in Feb...we could wind up as bad as 2-5.

So why Feb?....Only 2 home games for the month....some difficult road trips against the better A-10 teams...if we are short on depth ...that too could be a factor

Bottom line...as Feb goes ...so go the Bills.

Toughest game of the year....Houston

Easiest game .......N Ala.

Toughest A-10 game....St. Joe...Feb 8

Easiest ..A-10....Ford

 

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