A-10 2018-19 regular season standings

[Taj79]

It is hard of course, to project things like this for a season that will be long and arduous.  Injuries.  Defections.  Attitudes.  Failed press clippings.  Chemistry.  Suspensions.  But what I think right now ...................

#1) St. Joe's:  Phil has a full bench for the first time in a long time.  No more playing former walk-ons.  Kimble and Brown are known commodities.  Bynum and Manuel are four-star recruits.  Funk, Longpre and Oliva are all Euro-fours, opening up the middle for Kimble and company to drive.  Rothstein reports both Kimble and Brown are cleared for full practices.  With Manuel added to Lodge and Edwards you have 15 fouls to bang through the interior.  I can't see a sole injury derailing them. 

#2) Davidson:  McKillop.  His kids buy in to him and his system and with statements made that Grady is the next Steph Curry, plus Gudmundsson, you have arguably the A10's best backcourt.  His front line is all foreigners hailing from Serbia, England, Austria and Sweden. Much liek the Joey's, you will need to cover the bigs outside opening the lane for the guards.  If Grady blows a tire, I think they fall below the top half of the league.

#3) Rhode Island:  You can't teach a winning attitude and Rhode island has that.  Dowtin and Russel are a decent backcourt and Langevine and Lassard are okay on the front line.  And you add in four-star recruit Jermaine Harris.  Is this enough?  I doubt it and a new coach, albeit Hurley's top assistant, adds some intrigue.  But they should get some preseason love from the pundits all the same.

#4) Saint Louis:  I am hedging bets here because it would APPEAR we are in a great position to jump up to the top if possible.  By possible I mean we answer the depth and shooting woes that plagued us all last year.  Some still question if Ford can coach the talent he recruits and I think he can.  I think the take above that our four seniors are all transfers and it's now or never will add urgency and polish to the season.  This spot might be at least two slots too low by the time it's all over and a Saint final in the A10 tourney would not be a surprise to me.

#5) Mason:  They return everybody and that's a good thing. Livingston and Grayer can compete for best backcourt with the Davidson duo right now.  Adding Virgina transfer Reuter could be as good as Geedubya adding Tyler Cavanaugh from Wake a few years ago.  He will add to nice rising sophomores Calixte and Mar  but they do not go very deep after the starting five.  Still, it will be tough to win at mason for anyone.

#6) VCU:  Not sold on the Mike Rhodes era at VCU.  Mike Gilmore is a nice return recruit as a grad transfer but he hasn't been much anywhere he's been.  That team rides on Marcus Evans being healthy to play, otherwise, nice spare parts like Vann and Crowfield and Simms have to step up and play better.  Jenkins and Mobley and Silva are decent parts of a whole but yet to be stars.

#7) Duquesne:  Lewis and Williams are decent former all A10 newcomers.  And there is a lot of love going around for Keith Dambrot.  But he still has 13 new faces coming to bear.  I was surprised Top 144 had them so high (even listed) so we shall see.  They could be a surprise ---- either way ---- up this high or down in the basement as usual.  This IS Duquesne.

#8) Dayton:  I personally believe Dayton is in shambles and have no clue just what Anthony Grant is doing. He has five players in Cunningham, Mikesell, Landers, Crutcher and Davis and can likely play them but the bench is somewhat non-existent.   He does have a four- and three-star recruit signed up but of his 12 scholarship players, two are redshirts and not available this year.  Still, winning in Dayton in front of 13,000 hostiles will be a tough nut to crack for most teams.

#14) Fordham:  It's Fordham.  With a whole new lineup.  It's Fordham. Enough said.

The nine-through-13 spots are a lot of clutter to me.  If forced to rank them, I'll go Richmond, Umass, the Bonnies, La Salle and Geedubya.  All have one player (Golden, Pipkins, Poyser, and Powell)  except Geedubya but not much else.  Richmond could surprise due to Mooney's style.  Umass is trending as is Duquesne with a ton  of transfers.  Schmidt always does more with less.  Both La Salle and Geedubya technically have new coaches.  

For these guys, 'Mighty Mo' would have to take over but the head is a tough muscle to crack and train.  I'm all in on the Bills but i think the national guys won't be.  Save Rothstein.

[slu72]

So, we're all over the moon for a 4th place A10 team? Which means we'll improve only by one spot over last year's fiasco with more depth and more talent than we've ever had before. Unless we win the tourney,  4th in the A10 may not even get us in the NIT. Sorry, I'm expecting way better than 4th.  

[kshoe]

4 minutes ago, slu72 said:

So, we're all over the moon for a 4th place A10 team? Which means we'll improve only by one spot over last year's fiasco with more depth and more talent than we've ever had before. Unless we win the tourney,  4th in the A10 may not even get us in the NIT. Sorry, I'm expecting way better than 4th.  

"We" should not be equated with "Taj"

Finding a truly optimistic view of the Billikens from Taj that exceeds the mean of this board is nearly impossible even if you search through 15+ years of posts. Just because he takes an unsurprising negative view of the Bills doesn't mean it's at all accurate.

[Quality Is Job 1]

7 minutes ago, slu72 said:

So, we're all over the moon for a 4th place A10 team? Which means we'll improve only by one spot over last year's fiasco with more depth and more talent than we've ever had before. Unless we win the tourney,  4th in the A10 may not even get us in the NIT. Sorry, I'm expecting way better than 4th.  

Well, no.  Taj is just being Taj.

[ACE]

13 minutes ago, kshoe said:

"We" should not be equated with "Taj"

Finding a truly optimistic view of the Billikens from Taj that exceeds the mean of this board is nearly impossible even if you search through 15+ years of posts. Just because he takes an unsurprising negative view of the Bills doesn't mean it's at all accurate.

I used to enjoy his takes on Jordair.

[cgeldmacher]

23 hours ago, willie said:

Is there any fun when you cash the ticket? 

The problem is that the rest of the field drags down the Billikens' true odds.  I think the field was a 200-1 bet.  Betting on the Billikens individually should give better odds.

[Taj79]

Can't live without kshoe love and ACE love..... I would expect nothing less.

I did my write-up as I think most national writers will tend to go.  Phil and the Joeys will get most of the love as I see it.  Kimble and Brown are known returning commodities being added to last year's 4th place team.  They plus the two four-stars will easily replace Newkirk, Demery and Robinson. Davidson won the autobid last year with essentially two players in Aldridge and Grady.  And McKillop is McKillop.   Rhodey has the roll going right now but the four senior guards cannot be easily replaced.  Dayton got high praise for two plus years after the Archie runs and that will happen here.  I think that will be 1-2-3 in most publications.

I am all-in on the Bills personally, but answers are needed.  My main concern is the shooting options.  I like the add of Isabel but will he accept not being a volume guy?  I have watched Dion Wiley the past four years down the road here in College Park.  A very nice complimentary pickup for sure.  The shooting man?  Not to date.  The others are freshmen so I'll hedge ever so slightly there.  And we still are in search of a true point guard as well as his backup.

One of the truths I have accepted and preached over the years is the college game is a guards' game.  That is very evident in looking at the backcourts of 1-2-3 and 5 above.  Maybe Goodwin continues to be our answer.  Neither Thatch nor Jacobs nor Gudmundsson is a true backup plan.  Our front line appears to be the best in the league with French, Santos, Gordon, Foreman, Bess and even Welmer.  But short of Bess none handle the ball and no one has shown a decent and consistent exterior touch to loosen things up.  But the check points will tell .... the preseason, the OOC, the conference play and then the tournament.  I fully expect this team to be a top four finisher and maybe even the league regular season champ.  Need more proof?  Last year was won by Rhodey and Davidson.  Any big men there?  The year before that Dayton (Cooke & Smith) and VCU (Lewis, Johnson & Williams) went to the tourney ---- St.Joe's did too but that was Bembry with Miles and Kimble outside.  The year before that was Davidson led by Jack Gibbs.  Dayton with Jordan Siebert.  Right now, there isn't a guy on our team that gives me a comparable warm and fuzzy as some of those names did when they played.  Goodwin is thissssssclose but we will need more. 

On the purely optimistic side, I can see us being in spot to run the A10 table.  Until play starts and I see us putting the ball through the basket from further than ten feet, I'll defer.  Which is what the Wiz said. 

A fourth place finish projection would also place a nice chip on our shoulders as well.  Our front line resembles the Dallas Cowboys; our backcourt looks more like the Baltimore Ravens.

[kshoe]

Taj, so when you said:

"But what I think right now ..................."

 you really meant

"what I think the national writers will write"

Got it. Makes sense.

Simple question: what place do you think the Billikens will finish the A-10 regular season in? I say #1. Can you give a specific response that doesn't say something like "anywhere from 1-6."

 

[Taj79]

kshoe:  how about "I expect to finish first."  

Here's my homerism:

SLU/SJU/Mason/Davidson/Rhodey/VCU/Richmond/Duquesne/Umass/Dayton/Bonaventure/LaSalle/GeeDubya/Fordham.

[bauman]

Taj, shame on you!   I relied big time on your input to pick the Bills first and you pick them 4th ?

One serious issue,  you call the Davidson and GMU back courts as vying for the best A-10 duos.  You fail to mention the possibility of Goodwin and Isabell as candidates for that honor.  I think they will at least be in the discussion and combine them with the best front court in the league along with our depth and it's hard to envision  us 4th.  (I know, that's what you think the national boys will be picking)  Also, in your later post you think the national boys will be picking Dayton 3rd.  I say no way that happens.

[RiseAndGrind]

Carleton has beaten Cincinnati and Ole Miss this week 

[Taj79]

bauman ..... I never said Dayton for third.  Re-read.  I said Dayton received national accolades following Archie's runs in the Dance for two years ..... and used that in comparison to what I think the national writers will say about Rhode Island.  In both my write ups, I have Dayton in shambles finishing somewhere between 8 and 10.

Do I think Goodwin and Isabell can challenge the  other two back courts for best overall?  Sure.  I'd like to think no one can compete with our front line.  But .... there are buts all over the place.  As we stand on the brink of recovering (finally!) from the [dead] years, I am hesitant to say anything like something short of a Sweet Sixteen is a failure, HOWEVER ..... I do indeed feel that way.  My personal optimism at this time of the year is the highest its ever been probably.

[willie]

16 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

bauman ..... I never said Dayton for third.  Re-read.  I said Dayton received national accolades following Archie's runs in the Dance for two years ..... and used that in comparison to what I think the national writers will say about Rhode Island.  In both my write ups, I have Dayton in shambles finishing somewhere between 8 and 10.

Do I think Goodwin and Isabell can challenge the  other two back courts for best overall?  Sure.  I'd like to think no one can compete with our front line.  But .... there are buts all over the place.  As we stand on the brink of recovering (finally!) from the [dead] years, I am hesitant to say anything like something short of a Sweet Sixteen is a failure, HOWEVER ..... I do indeed feel that way.  My personal optimism at this time of the year is the highest its ever been probably.

Looks like kshoe brought out the best in you. Probably. 

[Zink]

Loving the discussion here... I really think Goodwin is firmly one of the two best players in the conference, alongside Grady. Having a full season with better pieces around him and no investigation looming over his head will only help. If I’m being honest, I think he’ll shoot 35% from three and go for like 14/7/6 with 4 steals + blocks and be the best all-around player in the conference. Isabell will be an uber efficient scorer alongside him and also contribute on the boards and with ball distribution. Grady/Gudmundsson will put up numbers in McKillop’s offense, but I’d take our duo over them in terms of toughness, defense, passing, and handling. 

[majerus mojo]

 

[Pistol]

Yikes. Not good. But I really think we're going to see a rebound year this season. I think it'll look more like 2011-2012. Maybe not a ton of green at the top, but more light green throughout. I think it's better top to bottom, just not a ton of strength up top.

[Old guy]

I think it is too early to say at this time. The charts and rankings likely to come out at this time still carry a lot of the prior season performance baked in.

[JMM28]

9 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Yikes. Not good. But I really think we're going to see a rebound year this season. I think it'll look more like 2011-2012. Maybe not a ton of green at the top, but more light green throughout. I think it's better top to bottom, just not a ton of strength up top.

This is the trouble with a 14 team league with annual boat anchors like Fordham (2 above .500 conference seasons in 23 years in the A10),  Duquesne (2 out of 25), and LaSalle (5 out of 23). Those schools are annual RPI/kenpom/etc time bombs sitting on every top teams schedule once or twice a year. 

[RiseAndGrind]

30 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

This is the trouble with a 14 team league with annual boat anchors like Fordham (2 above .500 conference seasons in 23 years in the A10),  Duquesne (2 out of 25), and LaSalle (5 out of 23). Those schools are annual RPI/kenpom/etc time bombs sitting on every top teams schedule once or twice a year. 

Fordham should be kicked out. It will never  ever be competitive again. 

[brianstl]

https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/08/02/a10-basketball-3-reasons-conference-can-receive-multiple-2019-bids/

[Pistol]

58 minutes ago, JMM28 said:

This is the trouble with a 14 team league with annual boat anchors like Fordham (2 above .500 conference seasons in 23 years in the A10),  Duquesne (2 out of 25), and LaSalle (5 out of 23). Those schools are annual RPI/kenpom/etc time bombs sitting on every top teams schedule once or twice a year. 

Yeah, they're problematic and Fordham is going to be bad again. La Salle, too, but I like the new coach and think they'll be better in the near future.

I'm looking at Duquesne as about a .500 team in conference this year. Lot of new pieces, a couple solid returners, and some nice size. Wouldn't be surprised to see them go something like 9-7, too.

Taj's post at the top is good (although I'm higher on SLU, of course). St. Joe's is going to be solid. Davidson is my other top-3 team. Rhody has an excellent class to help make up for their big senior class from last year. GMU returns everybody. VCU will be competitive. UMass will be better. Bonaventure will be down but not bad. I don't know about GW, Dayton, or Richmond this season, La Salle is starting a rebuild, and Fordham will finish last again.

[RiseAndGrind]

 

 

 

[brianstl]

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

Yikes. Not good. But I really think we're going to see a rebound year this season. I think it'll look more like 2011-2012. Maybe not a ton of green at the top, but more light green throughout. I think it's better top to bottom, just not a ton of strength up top.

I am starting to tire of Petey Buckets.  He started the list with what were the two best seasons in A10 history.  Since then the conference has basically returned to what it was prior to those two seasons.  

[majerus mojo]

52 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I am starting to tire of Petey Buckets.  He started the list with what were the two best seasons in A10 history.  Since then the conference has basically returned to what it was prior to those two seasons.  

one of the weirder critiques.... a decline is a decline  

[brianstl]

2 hours ago, majerus mojo said:

one of the weirder critiques.... a decline is a decline  

The A10 is what it has always been.  A clear notch below the big boys.  It has some up years and it has some down years.  It isn't fair to judge the A10 on it's two best years for a pretty big reason.  Those years coincided with an A10 that was already coming to an up year cycle and then received an artificial boost by adding Butler and then VCU.

If you ever thought the A10 could have maintained a level of play that would have consistently challenged the PAC12 and the SEC for a spot as one of the six best conferences in basketball, you really don't understand the factors in play in big times college athletics.  Like I said at the beginning of this post, the A10 now is what it has always really been.