A-10 2018-19 regular season standings

[slu72]

I still don't get the all in on Davidson. Yeah, Grady's a load but he ain't LeBron James. I'll count on Martelli screwing up St J's. GMU looks to be a threat as they get everyone back. 

If we can get it all together I don't see us losing more than 3 games at the most. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

28 minutes ago, slu72 said:

I still don't get the all in on Davidson. Yeah, Grady's a load but he ain't LeBron James. I'll count on Martelli screwing up St J's. GMU looks to be a threat as they get everyone back. 

If we can get it all together I don't see us losing more than 3 games at the most. 

You may be setting yourself up for a letdown.  I'm expecting more like 13-5.

[Littlebill]

3 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

You may be setting yourself up for a letdown.  I'm expecting more like 13-5.

13-5 would've finished 3rd last year sooooo..

[slu72]

We were 9-9 last year w/ some really close losses that could have gone either way. We basically had a 7 man team w/ 2 FR playing big minutes. Then lost our best player for the last 4 conf games. 

Our additions this year are significant. They are more than roster stuffers. I don't see the A10 being that much tougher than last year. It may even be down. I'll be very surprised and disappointed  if we lose more than 3 games in conference. 

[Zink]

14 minutes ago, slu72 said:

We were 9-9 last year w/ some really close losses that could have gone either way. We basically had a 7 man team w/ 2 FR playing big minutes. Then lost our best player for the last 4 conf games. 

Our additions this year are significant. They are more than roster stuffers. I don't see the A10 being that much tougher than last year. It may even be down. I'll be very surprised and disappointed  if we lose more than 3 games in conference. 

Yeah, I think the biggest difference between this year and previous years is that we’ll have plenty of guys who can get buckets. Goodwin and Isabell as guards, and then both French and Gordon in the post. Bess is still more of a secondary scorer than someone you want creating their own shot. Altogether this means that the multi-minute scoring droughts we’ve suffered for years should be a thing of the past. We’ll have plenty of ways to score, and the other team will kind of have to pick their poison. If I’m coaching against us, I pack in a 2-3 zone and dare us to shoot, but I’m still optimistic that Goodwin is as good a shooter as we saw in conference and that Bess will improve at least a little bit. 

 

That said, three losses is a high standard. I’d set the o/u at 4.5. The parity from 1-6/7 in our league will probably lead to a flattened out distribution of records. Games @ VCU, URI, St. Joe’s will be difficult. @ Duquesne could be a challenge, too. I think we lose two of those away games, one against GMU/Davidson at home, and then there’s a wildcard game in there somewhere. So losing three isn’t completely unrealistic, I just don’t think it would surprising or disappointing to lose 1-2 more. 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

LaSalles Pookie Powell and the Bonnie’s Courtney Stockard both got a 6th year of eligibility. 

[slu72]

51 minutes ago, Zink said:

Yeah, I think the biggest difference between this year and previous years is that we’ll have plenty of guys who can get buckets. Goodwin and Isabell as guards, and then both French and Gordon in the post. Bess is still more of a secondary scorer than someone you want creating their own shot. Altogether this means that the multi-minute scoring droughts we’ve suffered for years should be a thing of the past. We’ll have plenty of ways to score, and the other team will kind of have to pick their poison. If I’m coaching against us, I pack in a 2-3 zone and dare us to shoot, but I’m still optimistic that Goodwin is as good a shooter as we saw in conference and that Bess will improve at least a little bit. 

 

That said, three losses is a high standard. I’d set the o/u at 4.5. The parity from 1-6/7 in our league will probably lead to a flattened out distribution of records. Games @ VCU, URI, St. Joe’s will be difficult. @ Duquesne could be a challenge, too. I think we lose two of those away games, one against GMU/Davidson at home, and then there’s a wildcard game in there somewhere. So losing three isn’t completely unrealistic, I just don’t think it would surprising or disappointing to lose 1-2 more. 

Good points especially about the droughts caused by exhaustion. When legs get tired, breathing gets labored, hands go to hips the buckets come harder. We should have a bench that gives us 4 players who can come in and pick up the slack. Hell, the starters can be on the floor the last 4-5 minutes and still be relatively fresh. Foul trouble should not present the problems it did last year either. Are u going to worry so much when French gets pulled after 2 fouls and is backed up by Santos or Foreman? I'm sticking w/ max 3 losses in conference. With the exception of St J and GMU the other contenders are dealing w/ net losses in terms of points and depth. We're dealing on the plus side. 

[almaman]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

We were 9-9 last year w/ some really close losses that could have gone either way. We basically had a 7 man team w/ 2 FR playing big minutes. Then lost our best player for the last 4 conf games. 

Our additions this year are significant. They are more than roster stuffers. I don't see the A10 being that much tougher than last year. It may even be down. I'll be very surprised and disappointed  if we lose more than 3 games in conference. 

if no S3 I completely agree. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

1 hour ago, slu72 said:

We were 9-9 last year w/ some really close losses that could have gone either way. We basically had a 7 man team w/ 2 FR playing big minutes. Then lost our best player for the last 4 conf games. 

Our additions this year are significant. They are more than roster stuffers. I don't see the A10 being that much tougher than last year. It may even be down. I'll be very surprised and disappointed  if we lose more than 3 games in conference. 

I understand your thinking, but I think it's somewhat simplistic.  Things in the real world (or on the court) rarely go quite as expected.

If it weren't for the fact that only four players that have ever played together against opposing schools return, and that was for just one year, then I would be more inclined to agree with a more gung ho expectation of 15-3 or better in A-10 play.

Yes, the Bills appear to have great individual players for the 2018-19 season, but that doesn't guarantee that they'll be a great team.  I want them to be great as much as anything, but I fall short of outright expecting it.  Let me see how the team is gelling by the beginning of conference play.

[majerus mojo]

3 hours ago, brianstl said:

The A10 is what it has always been.  A clear notch below the big boys.  It has some up years and it has some down years.  It isn't fair to judge the A10 on it's two best years for a pretty big reason.  Those years coincided with an A10 that was already coming to an up year cycle and then received an artificial boost by adding Butler and then VCU.

If you ever thought the A10 could have maintained a level of play that would have consistently challenged the PAC12 and the SEC for a spot as one of the six best conferences in basketball, you really don't understand the factors in play in big times college athletics.  Like I said at the beginning of this post, the A10 now is what it has always really been.

I don't think anyone was positing anything close to what you are saying, in relation to this tweet? Your tangent regarding Power 5 conferences seems pretty obvious. The tweet pointed out a downward trend for the conference,  which is still true if you exclude '11-12 and '12-13. That's about it. Hopefully we can be a big part of the turnaround 

[brianstl]

55 minutes ago, majerus mojo said:

I don't think anyone was positing anything close to what you are saying, in relation to this tweet? Your tangent regarding Power 5 conferences seems pretty obvious. The tweet pointed out a downward trend for the conference,  which is still true if you exclude '11-12 and '12-13. That's about it. Hopefully we can be a big part of the turnaround 

The thing is it really a downward trend.  Last season was a down year, but the A10 has had much worse down years since the turn of the century.  From the '99-00 to the '10-11 season the A10 averaged 2.6 NCAA bids per season.  That includes two Juan bid seasons.  The last four seasons they have three each season.  

If you start the graph with the historically good outlier seasons it is going to make it look like the A10 is falling apart.  The reality is the A10 is just what it has always been.  

If a guy who averaged 3ppg in his career had three game stretch where he scored 20 ppg and followed it up with 4 games where he averaged 3, would you say he was on a downward trend?  I wouldn't.  He just returned to who he always was after a hot streak.

[slu72]

If the A10 can stay a 3 bid conference then we'll continue to be considered in a high mid major league. We're  in competition with the AAC and Mountain West for 7-9th behind the power 6  And really the AAC is more like power conference 6A. I'll settle for that until we see or if a better option opens up for us.  I do think the conference can be strengthened by dropping some of the bottom feeders who seem content on staying there. Fordham primarily comes to mind. I do see other lower rung schools making an effort to climb the ladder; Duquense and LaSalle. Remember we've had two conf teams reach the final 4, some sweet 16's, and a bunch of first round wins. Plus, I don't expect teams like Dayton and VCU to stay down long.

[Glorydays2013]

5 hours ago, slu72 said:

If the A10 can stay a 3 bid conference then we'll continue to be considered in a high mid major league. We're  in competition with the AAC and Mountain West for 7-9th behind the power 6  And really the AAC is more like power conference 6A. I'll settle for that until we see or if a better option opens up for us.  I do think the conference can be strengthened by dropping some of the bottom feeders who seem content on staying there. Fordham primarily comes to mind. I do see other lower rung schools making an effort to climb the ladder; Duquense and LaSalle. Remember we've had two conf teams reach the final 4, some sweet 16's, and a bunch of first round wins. Plus, I don't expect teams like Dayton and VCU to stay down long.

3 bid this year only if a team not top 2 in the A10 wins the tourney. Isn’t this year supposed to be worst than last year?

[Cowboy]

16 hours ago, Zink said:

Yeah, I think the biggest difference between this year and previous years is that we’ll have plenty of guys who can get buckets. Goodwin and Isabell as guards, and then both French and Gordon in the post. Bess is still more of a secondary scorer than someone you want creating their own shot. Altogether this means that the multi-minute scoring droughts we’ve suffered for years should be a thing of the past. We’ll have plenty of ways to score, and the other team will kind of have to pick their poison. If I’m coaching against us, I pack in a 2-3 zone and dare us to shoot, but I’m still optimistic that Goodwin is as good a shooter as we saw in conference and that Bess will improve at least a little bit. 

 

That said, three losses is a high standard. I’d set the o/u at 4.5. The parity from 1-6/7 in our league will probably lead to a flattened out distribution of records. Games @ VCU, URI, St. Joe’s will be difficult. @ Duquesne could be a challenge, too. I think we lose two of those away games, one against GMU/Davidson at home, and then there’s a wildcard game in there somewhere. So losing three isn’t completely unrealistic, I just don’t think it would surprising or disappointing to lose 1-2 more. 

-I too expect us to lose our patent on this

[slu72]

8 hours ago, Glorydays2013 said:

3 bid this year only if a team not top 2 in the A10 wins the tourney. Isn’t this year supposed to be worst than last year?

Not necessarily. It may well depend upon who the top 4 or 5 A10 teams played and beat in their OOC schedule. Last year the NCAA used some kind of point system they called the Quadrant. If a mid major does well in their league and comes with an impressive OOC resume, they could secure an at large bid. There was an article in the NY Post about how St. John's OOC schedule does not bode well for them come Selection Sunday as it's rather weak. The Red Storm will be under a lot of pressure to do extremely well in the Beast to lock down a bid. Probably finish in the top 5. So, it goes without saying, the Bills need to perform well in November and December. We've got 3 games against probable Quadrant 1 teams; FSU, Butler, and Houston. Probably have to win two of those to be a factor come late March.

[JMM28]

17 hours ago, Zink said:

Altogether this means that the multi-minute scoring droughts we’ve suffered for years should be a thing of the past.

This is supported by zero data or facts, but I feel like a majority of NCAA teams have this issue - or this perceived issue. 

[Old guy]

This is a correct statement and will remain so until we start actual play, at which time we will have factual data to base analysis upon.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

This is supported by zero data or facts, but I feel like a majority of NCAA teams have this issue - or this perceived issue. 

Dat true. Witness Michigan’s two significant scoring droughts v Villanova in the title game. 

[Glorydays2013]

3 hours ago, slu72 said:

Not necessarily. It may well depend upon who the top 4 or 5 A10 teams played and beat in their OOC schedule. Last year the NCAA used some kind of point system they called the Quadrant. If a mid major does well in their league and comes with an impressive OOC resume, they could secure an at large bid. There was an article in the NY Post about how St. John's OOC schedule does not bode well for them come Selection Sunday as it's rather weak. The Red Storm will be under a lot of pressure to do extremely well in the Beast to lock down a bid. Probably finish in the top 5. So, it goes without saying, the Bills need to perform well in November and December. We've got 3 games against probable Quadrant 1 teams; FSU, Butler, and Houston. Probably have to win two of those to be a factor come late March.

Seton hall is supposed to be good too

[Zink]

14 hours ago, JMM28 said:

This is supported by zero data or facts, but I feel like a majority of NCAA teams have this issue - or this perceived issue. 

That’s fair, and I don’t think I said we had a monopoly on scoring droughts. Relatedly, based solely on gut instinct, I don’t believe that most teams have multiple guys who can score on their own, either off the dribble or in the post. That has certainly been true of us in the recent past.

 

Thinking back to our best teams, only senior year Jett, junior/senior Evans, senior Conklin, and then Kwamain (all four years, but best as a sophomore) fit that bill. I think having the four guys I mentioned earlier (Goodwin, Isabell, Gordon, French) will kind of be like all four of these Billiken all-timers peaking on the same team. Imagine CPOY Jett (Goodwin) alongside Kwamain (Isabell) with both peak Conklin (French) and peak Evans (Gordon) in the paint. And then Bess instead of Cassity. Sploosh.

/end Blue kool-aid induced rant

[Quality Is Job 1]

7 minutes ago, Zink said:

That’s fair, and I don’t think I said we had a monopoly on scoring droughts. Relatedly, based solely on gut instinct, I don’t believe that most teams have multiple guys who can score on their own, either off the dribble or in the post. That has certainly been true of us in the recent past.

 

Thinking back to our best teams, only senior year Jett, junior/senior Evans, senior Conklin, and then Kwamain (all four years, but best as a sophomore) fit that bill. I think having the four guys I mentioned earlier (Goodwin, Isabell, Gordon, French) will kind of be like all four of these Billiken all-timers peaking on the same team. Imagine CPOY Jett (Goodwin) alongside Kwamain (Isabell) with both peak Conklin (French) and peak Evans (Gordon) in the paint. And then Bess instead of Cassity. Sploosh.

/end Blue kool-aid induced rant

Even those squads regularly suffered from scoring droughts.

[Zink]

2 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Even those squads regularly suffered from scoring droughts.

I think you missed part of my point - none of those squads had all of those four guys at a time when they were capable of being go-to scorers. When Conklin was a senior, neither Evans nor Jett were at that level. Jett didn’t really get there until after Kwamain left. For that three-year run, we only had two guys (Conklin/Kwamain, Evans/Kwamain, Jett/Evans) who were at that level at a time. I’m saying this year we just might have four...