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34 minutes ago, willie said:

I said this before. I’m willing to bet the A-10 gets 2. 

Dayton, SLU, VCU look like bids to me. 

A10 conference won’t be as easy as anyone thought, however our defense will frustrate teams. But Vcu will be a blood bath 

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

No... The A-10 conference 

Im not convinced that winning the regular season will be enough even with only 2-3 conference losses.   Id feedl a lot more confident if we could win out the non conference from this point 

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

Im not convinced that winning the regular season will be enough even with only 2-3 conference losses.   Id feedl a lot more confident if we could win out the non conference from this point 

I get it ...winning the conference is not a guarantee of an NCAA berth....but then again it is....In the 13 years  since SLU has been in the A-10...the conference champ has gone to March Madness each year....and if we finish at 25-6....figuring 2 more OOC losses ...would leave us with 2 conf losses....or an 85% chance to win the conf....given the parity and no dominant team in the A-10...means the chance of finishing first in the A-10 with 2 losses is in the 90s.....

Right now we are a B team....which means we have a chance to win the A-10....we really need to be at B+ or higher to have a good chance to win the Conf title......On Monday , I will put out an A-10 review when all teams have 8 games (except RI )and we will see what the conf race looks like at that time.

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I basically agree that winning the conference goes a long way towards getting an NCAA invite, but in order to do this we will also have to do well in the A10 tournament (like beimg one of  the top 3 teams). Can we do this as a B team or do we need to be a B+ team.

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56 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I basically agree that winning the conference goes a long way towards getting an NCAA invite, but in order to do this we will also have to do well in the A10 tournament (like beimg one of  the top 3 teams). Can we do this as a B team or do we need to be a B+ team.

I think the winner of the A-10 conference will be a B+ team....So if your question is can we finish in the top 3 of the A-10 tourney....the answer is yes...there may only be 1 or 2 B+ teams....

My feeling as I expressed earlier is we need to win the A-10 conf.....If we win the conference , I think we will get a bid to the NCAA....In order to do this we will need to become a B+ team.  We will need more than 8 players to do this.  With Wiley out and Bess not at full speed we are at 8 players....We learned last year that 8 over a long period of time doesn't work well.

Winning the A-10 conf will be easier  than in previous years but will be no small task. We can do it , if we start to play better....not a whole lot better ...just better....If we can shoot better  ie avoid games like the SIU debacle....just shoot average....Billiken average not D-1 average....I think  our defense has improved enough that if we can shoot Billiken average we can win most games going forward...avoid excess TOs...try to stay in the 12 area....and finally convert some fast breaks....not all of them ...some of them....

If it looks like I am lowering the offensive bar...I am.....You can do that when you  play an A defense. 

A small step up will take us far.

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11 hours ago, Glorydays2013 said:

Dayton, SLU, VCU look like bids to me. 

A10 conference won’t be as easy as anyone thought, however our defense will frustrate teams. But Vcu will be a blood bath 

I think Davidson over VCU and Dayton has surprised.

St. Joes could make a run its just too early but I think the A10 probably gets two but lets see what happens the next two weeks.

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3 hours ago, CBFan said:

I think Davidson over VCU and Dayton has surprised.

St. Joes could make a run its just too early but I think the A10 probably gets two but lets see what happens the next two weeks.

Yes completely forgot about Davidson. I think defense will win in a long A10 season 

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15 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

Im not convinced that winning the regular season will be enough even with only 2-3 conference losses.   Id feedl a lot more confident if we could win out the non conference from this point 

Roy, do you believe 25-6 at the end of the regular season would be good enough for an at-large? I sure do and to me that is the magic number. (There used to be an RPI forecast site that would tell you the RPI expectation for a given record but it doesn't seem to be updated anymore. If anyone knows of equivalent metrics that look at expected rank based on final record I'd be very interested.)

There are scenarios where we "win-out" the non-conference but lose 4 games in conference play and come in second in the conference but still get an at-large. There are also scenarios where we lose 3 more non-conference games, lose 3 in the A-10 and win the regular season title but at 23-8 don't have a legitimate at-large resume.

People shouldn't worry so much about winning the A-10 regular season...we just need to win games and make sure we don't lose more than 6 when all is said and done in the regular season.

 

p.s. if you are really saying we need to go undefeated the rest of the non-con and only lose 2-3 games in the A-10 as the only way to get an at-large, then you are basically saying it is hopeless. The chances of us running the table non-conference are less than 3% according to Pomeroy.

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if going into the A-10 conference tourney the a-10 has no teams in the top 40-50 of whatever body the ncaa is using to assist selection sunday, regardless of our record, if we win the conference we will not be guaranteed a tourney spot and the lone ncaa tourney team from the a-10 will be the a-10 tourney winner.   

now if we win out the non-conference schedule and we only lose 3-4 conference games, the wins vs florida state and oregon and butler would get us in.   siu and pitt were very tough losses in this year when it is apparent the a-10 is very down.    

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

if going into the A-10 conference tourney the a-10 has no teams in the top 40-50 of whatever body the ncaa is using to assist selection sunday, regardless of our record, if we win the conference we will not be guaranteed a tourney spot and the lone ncaa tourney team from the a-10 will be the a-10 tourney winner.   

now if we win out the non-conference schedule and we only lose 3-4 conference games, the wins vs florida state and oregon and butler would get us in.   siu and pitt were very tough losses in this year when it is apparent the a-10 is very down.    

What you’re saying is logical, but I just don’t think the regular season A-10 champ gets left out in the cold (assuming the champ goes through conf with only 2-3 losses).

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19 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

What you’re saying is logical, but I just don’t think the regular season A-10 champ gets left out in the cold (assuming the champ goes through conf with only 2-3 losses).

it happens every year in the bottom 20+ conferences.   the problem is that this year there is a very good chance  the a-10 will be one of those 20+ conferences

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52 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

it happens every year in the bottom 20+ conferences.   the problem is that this year there is a very good chance  the a-10 will be one of those 20+ conferences

Bet you a nice cold drink of winner’s choice that as long as the a-10 champ has 3 or fewer conf  losses and does not win the conf tourney, they will still get into the dance. 

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19 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Bet you a nice cold drink of winner’s choice that as long as the a-10 champ has 3 or fewer conf  losses and does not win the conf tourney, they will still get into the dance. 

well keep watching that NET ranking.   as long as we are ranked in the 80's we wont even get an nit invite.    need to get to 40 then we can start getting hopeful.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

well keep watching that NET ranking.   as long as we are ranked in the 80's we wont even get an nit invite.    need to get to 40 then we can start getting hopeful.

So you’re taking the bet? 

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If you want to accept the billikens have only 2-3 conference losses and win the regular season,  but their "net" is in the 80's and they dont win the conference tourney, ill take that bet

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22 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

If you want to accept the billikens have only 2-3 conference losses and win the regular season,  but their "net" is in the 80's and they dont win the conference tourney, ill take that bet

Not sure why you have all the qualifiers.  It's pretty straightforward, I'm betting the A-10 conf champ will go to the NCAA tourney even if they don't win the conf. tourney.  Drink of your choice on the line.  I prefer Old Fashioneds.

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25 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Not sure why you have all the qualifiers.  It's pretty straightforward, I'm betting the A-10 conf champ will go to the NCAA tourney even if they don't win the conf. tourney.  Drink of your choice on the line.  I prefer Old Fashioneds.

because that is what i am saying will limit the A-10 to one bid.  

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9 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

because that is what i am saying will limit the A-10 to one bid.  

A-10 regular season champ is going to the dance even if they don’t win the conf tourney.  I suppose there are outliers, for instance, where the champ wins a 4 team tiebreaker between teams with 7 losses each, who all have a NET in the 80’s, with poor OOC records...but I’m sayimg that ain’t gonna happen.  It is implicit in my prediction. 

So, A-10 reg season champ is going to the dance even without winning the conf tourney.  That’s my prediction.

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9 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

A-10 regular season champ is going to the dance even if they don’t win the conf tourney.  I suppose there are outliers, for instance, where the champ wins a 4 team tiebreaker between teams with 7 losses each, who all have a NET in the 80’s, with poor OOC records...but I’m sayimg that ain’t gonna happen.  It is implicit in my prediction. 

So, A-10 reg season champ is going to the dance even without winning the conf tourney.  That’s my prediction.

It doesn't matter:  The Billikens are going to win the A-10 Tourney after winning or sharing the A-10 title.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

If you want to accept the billikens have only 2-3 conference losses and win the regular season,  but their "net" is in the 80's and they dont win the conference tourney, ill take that bet

Roy, your qualifier that the A-10 champ also have a NET in the 80s is the real problem here. Almost by definition, any of the top 5 non-conference performers from the A-10 (SLU, VCU, Davidson, Dayton, St. Joes) can go 15-3 or 16-2 and they will end up with a NET in the 30-50 range. It would take one of the real bottom dwellers from non-con turning it around by going 15-3 for their end of season NET to be in the 80s.

Look at the Billikens and their Pomeroy ranking right now. He has us as #76 overall and predicts us to go 21-10 and 12-6 in conference. Put differently, if we do that we'll likely still be in the 70-80 range per his model. So what do you think will happen to our ranking if we win 4 games more than the predicts and end up 25-6? We are going to be ranked much higher, probably in the 30-40 range. Safely in the NCAA at-large range. 

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even if you go by 40+ net rankings a non-top ten conference is not going to get multiple bids.    go look at last years rpi rankings by conference and see how many of the bottom 22 conferences got multiple bids.  

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2 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

even if you go by 40+ net rankings a non-top ten conference is not going to get multiple bids.    go look at last years rpi rankings by conference and see how many of the bottom 22 conferences got multiple bids.  

Why do you think the A-10 has dropped out of the top 10 conferences?

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59 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Why do you think the A-10 has dropped out of the top 10 conferences?

do you have proof they havent?  they werent even ranked above top 10 last year and the conference is worse this year.

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7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

do you have proof they havent?  they werent even ranked above top 10 last year and the conference is worse this year.

image.png.ac2806dc64618d2fb2118e9c542b383e.png

 

According to KenPom, the A10 is the 10th best conference right now. Note: the WCC would be much lower than it is if you subtract the Zags. I do not know if they would drop below the A10

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