2018-19 season

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, willie said:

I think we can be a better 3 pt. shooting team by being more selective in whose shooting them . Bess should shoot more, Isabelle less. Wiley needs to put up 4 or 5 a game. If after 5 more games he has a low percentage scrap that plan. Thatch should never shoot one unless the clock is at zero. I know it's hard to find his minutes but I would like to see if Hankton can shoot a decent percentage. Goodwin? Not sure. 

you do know that hankton's make % is pretty much the same as goodwin and thatch.   imo all have decent looking form and release's.   just dont make like it seems they should.  

wiley on the other hand, who we all want to give the keys to the otter circle kingdom only makes a few % more but his shot release, spin, follow through and arch is rarely the same.   go figure.   

 

truth is all four are not anything to bank on for 3 point shooting at this point.   

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

you do know that hankton's make % is pretty much the same as goodwin and thatch.   imo all have decent looking form and release's.   just dont make like it seems they should.  

 

But jgood and thatch has had had time to get into rhythm,  hankton hasnt.  same reason why I think Wiley is better than what we've been able to see.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

Isabell is shooting about the same percentage he has during his college career.  The exception was last year at Drexel playing against a weaker schedule.

I agree that our best shot at bolstering our three point percentage is Wiley.  We need him to be able to stay on the floor for more than 7 games in a row.  Thatch's best three point shooting days are ahead of him.

But nearly 60% of Isabell's three year career three point shots came while at Drexel.  He shot 28% in two years at Mizzou and 34% at Drexel with a three year average of 31.6%.  His current season total of 26.3% is close to his worst year at Mizzou, 25.5% in '15-16.   So yeah, what you see is what we got.

Thatch was a 41% three point shooter in HS, and 80% from the FT.  He is currently running at 27% and 59%.  So he certainly has shown he can hit better than he is now.  But defenses in HS aren't the same as they are in D1. 

[willie]

3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

you do know that hankton's make % is pretty much the same as goodwin and thatch.   imo all have decent looking form and release's.   just dont make like it seems they should.  

wiley on the other hand, who we all want to give the keys to the otter circle kingdom only makes a few % more but his shot release, spin, follow through and arch is rarely the same.   go figure.   

 

truth is all four are not anything to bank on for 3 point shooting at this point.   

I understand your point. I admit my comments are partially based on the eye test. 

[HoosierPal]

8 minutes ago, wgstl said:

But jgood and thatch has had had time to get into rhythm,  hankton hasnt.  same reason why I think Wiley is better than what we've been able to see.

Wiley shot a bunch of three's at Maryland.  His three year's went 32.9%, 37.5%, and 36.7% (average of 35.5%).  Today he is hitting 30.5% at SLU, so I agree, Wiley is better than what we have seen to date. History says his % will go up from here.

[billiken_roy]

i'll say it again, "truth is all four are not anything to bank on for 3 point shooting at this point."

 

to expect any of the four to all at once be curry is just beyond reasonable.   we will not start winning games because of three point shots.   

as i have been saying since late november, we should be trying to change tempo creating turnovers that would result in transition baskets (read layups and dunks hopefully).   subtracting say 6 three point attempt misses a game and adding 6 layup and dunks made per game would make quite a difference.  

the one thing we all agree on is our consistent attribute to hang our season on is defense.   expand that and the opportunities will come.   it really is the only thing we can change at this point with the players we have to change the way the season goes imo.   

[wgstl]

5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i'll say it again, "truth is all four are not anything to bank on for 3 point shooting at this point."

 

to expect any of the four to all at once be curry is just beyond reasonable.   we will not start winning games because of three point shots.   

as i have been saying since late november, we should be trying to change tempo creating turnovers that would result in transition baskets (read layups and dunks hopefully).   subtracting say 6 three point attempt misses a game and adding 6 layup and dunks made per game would make quite a difference.  

the one thing we all agree on is our consistent attribute to hang our season on is defense.   expand that and the opportunities will come.   it really is the only thing we can change at this point with the players we have to change the way the season goes imo.   

I agree, but I expect 1 or 2 or even 3 to raise their % by a just a few points.  If you have 2 players improve by 3% each, thats like taking one shooter and pumping him from a 34 to 40% 3 shooter.  Thats something our team needs badly.  Im not saying I expect jgood, thatch, wiley, hankton, and bess to all go up 10% each.

 

Expecting goodwin to go from .26% to 28% isnt asking for much.

[CBFan]

Blue font, Roy you are encouraging more fast breaks that don’t seem to end well for our team.

[JMM28]

8 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

as i have been saying since late november, we should be trying to change tempo creating turnovers that would result in transition baskets (read layups and dunks hopefully).   subtracting say 6 three point attempt misses a game and adding 6 layup and dunks made per game would make quite a difference.  

 

SLU currently has the 6th worst transition field goal percentage in the country, out of 353 teams. Of course the overall effective field goal percentage this year is somewhere in the bottom 25 teams in the country, so maybe it is a pick your poison. 

http://hoop-math.com/leader_o2019.php

[willie]

5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i'll say it again, "truth is all four are not anything to bank on for 3 point shooting at this point."

 

to expect any of the four to all at once be curry is just beyond reasonable.   we will not start winning games because of three point shots.   

as i have been saying since late november, we should be trying to change tempo creating turnovers that would result in transition baskets (read layups and dunks hopefully).   subtracting say 6 three point attempt misses a game and adding 6 layup and dunks made per game would make quite a difference.  

the one thing we all agree on is our consistent attribute to hang our season on is defense.   expand that and the opportunities will come.   it really is the only thing we can change at this point with the players we have to change the way the season goes imo.   

In today's  Wall Street Journal there is an article about Caltech's basketball team. Caltech was one of the worst college teams until they started shooting more 3's. 50% of their attempt are 3's. They are starting to win some games. To them it's all math. 3 is better then 2. Maybe our answer is we aren't shooting enough. It's not like we are good running the break and making layups. 

[billiken_roy]

16 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I agree, but I expect 1 or 2 or even 3 to raise their % by a just a few points.  If you have 2 players improve by 3% each, thats like taking one shooter and pumping him from a 34 to 40% 3 shooter.  Thats something our team needs badly.  Im not saying I expect jgood, thatch, wiley, hankton, and bess to all go up 10% each.

 

Expecting goodwin to go from .26% to 28% isnt asking for much.

actually imo it is midseason.   between march and november, hell yes.   better get better.   it didnt this past season and that is very disappointing.  but 3% change in shooting performance at this point in the season would seem to be quite remarkable as one doesnt mess with form and mechanics in midseason and make % isnt going to get better just because they ate jelly beans last night or danced around a campfire or crossed their fingers during the playing of the national anthem. 

[billiken_roy]

19 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Blue font, Roy you are encouraging more fast breaks that don’t seem to end well for our team.

i would pick my poison betting on making more additional layups and dunks than 3's.   especially when the players concerned are goodwin, thatch, hankton and wiley.   

[3star_recruit]

33 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

But nearly 60% of Isabell's three year career three point shots came while at Drexel.  He shot 28% in two years at Mizzou and 34% at Drexel with a three year average of 31.6%.  His current season total of 26.3% is close to his worst year at Mizzou, 25.5% in '15-16.   So yeah, what you see is what we got.

Thatch was a 41% three point shooter in HS, and 80% from the FT.  He is currently running at 27% and 59%.  So he certainly has shown he can hit better than he is now.  But defenses in HS aren't the same as they are in D1. 

Also three pointers were a  small percentage of the overall shots Thatch took in high school. Maybe 20% of his senior year shot totals were from three. Now he's being put in a position where half his shots are from three. Not his game.

[billiken_roy]

13 minutes ago, willie said:

In today's  Wall Street Journal there is an article about Caltech's basketball team. Caltech was one of the worst college teams until they started shooting more 3's. 50% of their attempt are 3's. They are starting to win some games. To them it's all math. 3 is better then 2. Maybe our answer is we aren't shooting enough. It's not like we are good running the break and making layups. 

what was their 3 point percentage prior to the change?   if they were already decent 3 point shooters.   well of course.   if they shot 30% combined 3 point made percentage before the change it makes no sense they now are good 3 point shooters making substantially more now 3's simply because they threw more up.   geez after shooting 19% over the last 2 games where we hoisted up 42 total 3's.  one would think we are tired of looking at all that clanking.    

[willie]

4 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

what was their 3 point percentage prior to the change?   if they were already decent 3 point shooters.   well of course.   if they shot 30% combined 3 point made percentage before the change it makes no sense they now are good 3 point shooters making substantially more now 3's simply because they threw more up.   geez after shooting 19% over the last 2 games where we hoisted up 42 total 3's.  one would think we are tired of looking at all that clanking.    

The point of the article is not that they are making a better percentage just that they are making more because they are shooting more. Obviously if we make 19% every game you are not going to win too many games. Shooting and defending the 3 is where the game is at today and it's not going to change. My biggest criticism of Ford is I believe we give up to many open 3's. Trapping the ball is great when you get the turnover,but gives up way to many corner 3's. 

[brianstl]

5 minutes ago, willie said:

The point of the article is not that they are making a better percentage just that they are making more because they are shooting more. Obviously if we make 19% every game you are not going to win too many games. Shooting and defending the 3 is where the game is at today and it's not going to change. My biggest criticism of Ford is I believe we give up to many open 3's. Trapping the ball is great when you get the turnover,but gives up way to many corner 3's. 

We rank 22nd in the country in opponent 3pt% at 29.1% and 30th in lowest amount of allowed 3 point baskets. 

[3star_recruit]

The math works out like this:  33% from 3 nets you same amount of points as 50% from 2.  If your 3 pt shooting and your 2 pt shooting is poor, the math dictates that you take more threes.  In other words, Wiley (best three point shooter) needs to get the 9-10 shots a game that say, Isabell, is getting.  How we would create 9-10 shots for Wiley without a dribble penetrator or running  Wiley off a bunch of screens is beyond me.

[moytoy12]

1 minute ago, 3star_recruit said:

How we would create 9-10 shots for Wiley without a dribble penetrator or running  Wiley off a bunch of screens is beyond me.

The only way I can think of to get him more 3's in our offense is to make sure he's in when French is in.  Once French is doubled, then kick it out and quickly find Wiley.  If Wiley is open, then have him shoot.  If not, then have him quickly move the ball (someone has to be open if French is doubled) and have that person drive.  Either that person goes to the rim or finds an open Wiley after the defense has committed.  But it only works if French is doubled and we quickly move the ball.  All that being said, I'm still not sure we'll create 9-10 shots for Wiley without doing what you say above.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, willie said:

The point of the article is not that they are making a better percentage just that they are making more because they are shooting more. Obviously if we make 19% every game you are not going to win too many games. Shooting and defending the 3 is where the game is at today and it's not going to change. My biggest criticism of Ford is I believe we give up to many open 3's. Trapping the ball is great when you get the turnover,but gives up way to many corner 3's. 

i believe that comes from the agressive up on the ball defense which gives that skip pass opponent a likely open shot.   i guess another choose your poison question.  the fact that our opponents points per game is pretty low, i think i would live with that.   our problem is purely offense and i would fix that by full court havoc like defense.   create more turnovers get easier scoring opportunities.  

[billiken_roy]

you guys wishing for more 3's for this billiken team that cant shoot has me boggled.   i think i am done with this discussion.  

[David King]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i would pick my poison betting on making more additional layups and dunks than 3's.   especially when the players concerned are goodwin, thatch, hankton and wiley.   

At this point in the season, I don't think we should expect the over all lay up/dunk FG% to improve any more than we should expect overall 3ptFG% to improve. The wild card is Wiley. His 3 point shooting was key to winning 2 games. His defense is relatively solid also; definitely a step up over Hankton's. His current low 3P% of 30.5% is attributable, in part to his injuries. Supposedly, now he has his legs back, and I expect his 3 point accuracy to improve. Just a little more from him could make a big difference.

[Cowboy]

-remember Teddy Dupay at the Shootout? first time he touched the ball on his offensive side of half-court the crowd yelled 'shoot', maybe that's our problem, our 3pt attempts are not from far enough away, we could run to the ft line to gather long rebounds and fire it back out for another long range attempt, of course those shots that miss everything.....

-I don't see why it is a stretch to think/believe/hope that a player who has missed 7 games with two different injuries could shoot better as the season progresses and for me a lot of this is hope, I'll let reality develop

[Spoon-Balls]

Say what you will about J Good's disappointing shooting percentage this season and the missed free throws on Saturday, but the young man gives his all to this program and to us fans. At the end of the day that's all we can ask for. 

[slu72 fan]

2 minutes ago, Spoon-Balls said:

Say what you will about J Good's disappointing shooting percentage this season and the missed free throws on Saturday, but the young man gives his all to this program and to us fans. At the end of the day that's all we can ask for. 

+1

[kmbilliken]

Anyone notice Hankton doesn't shoot well from the corners? Only out front.