A10 Deficits

[Taj79]

As the Spring Singing Period starts to ramp up, and guys like Shane Gatling (Colorado) come off the board and others finalize transfer plans like Taryn Smith (UConn) of Duquesne, I thought it time to take a look-see and see what the rets of the A10 looks like as the signing period evolved.

Davidson:  Has 10 of 13 scholarships filled.  Synopsis -- returning a full backcourt of Grady, Gudmundsson and Pritchett is a nice luxury.  Plus none are seniors next year either.  The weakness appears to be the front line where nothing exists except a redshirt transfer and freshmen.  But McKillop has three open spots yet and he is always likely to pull someone out of the international pool somewhere.  The guards alone should keep Davidson competitive but unless the redshirt is superman, they will need help.

Dayton:  someone said it elsewhere but right now, Dayton and Anthony Grant are hurting.  They have five open spots heading into the spring.  Both Gatling and Mahan turned them down as they did us.  Five players have bolted (Williams, Crosby, Freak 2.0, Svoboda, and Pierce).  Grant does have four-star Cohill signed but with five still open spots, they will be young and inexperienced.  They will be like we were this year likely going maybe five or six deep right now.

Duquesne:  Two schollies OVER the limit.  Hmmm ..... Duquesne is really one of those "you can't tell the players without a scorecard and even then it's doubtful" kind of team.  As noted Smith just left as a grad transfer to join Hurley at UConn.  Dambrodt has five transfer sitting out right now and then has three signed LOIs and another three verbal commits in the freshman class alone.  The only guys back with any experience are Lewis and Williams.  Nobody is going to have a clue on this team come November. 

Fordham:  is supposedly full up with 13 scholarships committed although one is a verbal commitment form four-star Onyinyechi Eysi (Guy Phillips all-star).  Their backcourt righ tnow is a wlak-on, a JUCO and three LOI freshmen.  Going to be another long year for the Rams from the Bronx.

Mason:  has one spots open with offers out to four kids.  Mason graduated nary a senior this year so what they had is what we'll see only with another year of experience.  With Livingstone, Grayer and Keir, factoring in college being the guard's game, they will poised to make a run next year providing Calixte and Mar hold their own on the front line.  Optimism should be high in Fairfax.

George Washington:  Geedubya is two short of a full boat.  As noted in the other A10 thread, Jair Bolden is leaving which isn't so earth-shattering except that leaves the Colonials with one guard.  I don't see them making much noise next year --- just don't take them too lightly in Foggy Bottom.  You never know.

La Salle:  of course, fired/parted ways with Giannini recently so who knows.  As of now, they have 8 scholarship players with four others committed but committed to Giannini.  And they have a reported nine (!)  open offers for freshmen alone.  I think Ashley Howard has some plans afoot.  They will return Pookie Powell and welcome Marquette transfer Traci Carter so they have two to run the backcourt but will they share the ball?  Bespeckled big man Miles Brookins returns but that is it on a traditionally thin front line.  La Salle looks bottom feeder once again.

Umass:  if I thought Duquesne was goofy, move over, here comes Umass.  Umass shows all 13 scholarships committed AND open offers to NINE more freshmen.  Nine.  Umass has seven of those guys all coming off redshirt years --- five transfers and then redshirts also for Unique McLean  as well as Rashaan  Holloway -- the 300 lb. giant from two years ago.  Much like Duquesne, this will be a mystery team for the first half of the year as we try to figure out who's doing what in Amherst.

Rhode Island:  currently is two players shy of full up.  Hurley did take three-star guard Brendan Adams, Jaylen's little brother, to Uconn with him but the other three commits have remained true to coach Cox.  Rhode Island currently has seven open offers for their two spots.  Winning and experience beget the same so with Dowtin, Russell, Akele, Langevine -- they should be okay out of the gates with the Rams.   Akele and Langevine weren't good enough last year and with two guards you'll need more but Rhodey has a nice nucleus coming back.  Plus Jermaine Harri sis a four-star recruit.

Richmond:  remains one schollie short of a full boat.  They would have returned everybody had Kwan Fore not decided to leave as a grad transfer and that hurts.  No one seems ready to step up but they do have Golden, Gilyard, Buckingham and Sherrod for a nice ourr.  Julius Johnson is limited and better as a sixth man.  They have five, but at ento deep right now.

St. Joseph's:  is two short right now but I really don't think Martelli cares.  Even when he has a full bench, he usually only goes six deep anyway.  If Kimble and Brown come back well from injuries, they will easily replace Newkirk and Demery for his fourth place finishers from last year.  Oliva, Longpre and Funk will be rejoined by redshirt big man Markell Lodge.  Martelli has one recruit signed but it is the usual four-star point guard that he seems to attract.  I think a lot of pubs will see this as the team to beat in the A10 next year.  But it still has if and it is always one injury from falling apart.

St. Bonaventure:  The Bonnies are low on fuel.  They have five open spots on the roster, tying Dayton for the most need.  Six if you throw in the fact that their only commitment is  a verbal and not a signed letter.  They are losing guys to Eastern Kentucky and Arkansas State.  I've said it before, why would anyone want to go to Olean?  But Schmidt will survived and survive well, he always does.  The big coming attraction in Olean is the four-star transfer Jaylen Poser from UNLV.  Ladarien Griffin will be okay inside.  Kaputo will be okay as a PG.  Ipkeze and Ayeni are at least ten fouls to give.  Schmidt has seven open offers to JUCOs for next year.  I'll be curious to see hwo this all plays out for our favorite Brown Indians.

VCU:  the passenger list is full for this flight.  13 out of 13.  With TWELVE still open offers.  I don't know how that works!  This willb e a team that welcome sstud transfer Marcus Evans from Rice who followed his coach home to Richmond last year.  The guard spot look good with Evans, Crowfield and Simms but not as impressive past that.  Miek Rhoades isn't getting gin on the four- and five-star recruits Shaka and Wade were.  The front lien is not getting nay better as none of the signees are consider small or power forwards.  Going to live with Mobley and Silva I guess.  A work in progress.

Saint Louis:  Can't let this go even though discussion is going on in the 2018-19 Hype thread.  We are full up however that includes listing Bishop and Welmer on the current schollie roster.  Bishop has to be gone right?  Even though he is suspended, he can't still be occupying a scholarship in my book, can he?  Whatever the case may be, we are still short on guards as I see it.  The front line should be solid with Foreman, Santos, French and Gordon.  That's a nice two-man rotation over two shifts.  Add Welmer to that and it only gets better.  The wings are Bess, Johnson and Pearson.  With Bess as a workhorse, these three are good enough for me at the SF spot.  Bess is a driver; Johnson a shooter; Pearson TBD.  But the backcourt is still suspect.  Goodwin never really found a shot; if I wanted him to become the best, I'd vote for him to adopt a Jalen Brunson style.  Thatch and Jacobs are unproven freshmen; ad din an international unproven flavor to Gudmundsson.  And I don't know if we have filled last year's sorely missing quality -- outside/three-point shooting.  So I am stil curious as to the two remaining scholarships as well as where we go there. 

So, way too early projections: 

Top Shelf:  St. Joseph's and Mason.

Premium:  Rhodey, Richmond  and VCU.

Standard:  Davidson

No Name:  Duquesne, Umass, Fordham, Geedubya, La Salle,  Dayton, Bonaventure.

Right now, until I see something more in the back court, I think we are vacillating between Premium and Standard; get a guard and I'll up it to Premium. 

[brianstl]

I think Davidson only has two spots open.  I thought the were filled, but they had four underclassmen walk-ons on the roster last season.

They have Ekwu coming back with a medical redshirt.  Plus, they have four commitments.

[Cowboy]

-to Taj, I think JGood's shot was coming around as in non-con his 3pt% was 16.3% (8 for 49) while in conf it was 34.4% (11 for 32), so shot fewer and made more, if he can shoot 34% or more from 3 that makes him a very difficult player to defend

[TFord and TRavs]

We are definitely between top shelf and premium 

[bauman]

50 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said:

We are definitely between top shelf and premium 

Bu!!$h!^!!!

We will be Top Shelf plus!!!

[Taj79]

Disagreement, discussion and all out anarchy are welcome and encouraged.  Just my take.

I have lived through 43 seasons of "high offseason expectations" with this team and have come to add temperance to all things hyped.  As last year wore on, we were greatly influenced by the lack of depth on this team.  We all knew that; we all knew the bench was non-existent.  But not only was that bench hideously short, our overall talent level in the skill of shooting the basketball was also short.  All one has to do is look at the Golden State Warriors and realize the college version of that model was the Villanova Wildcats.  Four, five, six guys bombing away from behind the arc.  The mid-range game is dead .... you either dunk it for a sure two and get on Sportscenter or you shoot the three to trade 3 points for two.  In 017-18, we had  one guy with any consistency from three -- Jalen Johnson.  Defenses packed in on us, daring Roby and Hines to shoot it.  Bess was not consistent enough; neither was Goodwin.  To me, that remains the tipping point again as we move forward, who will shoot the rock from distance?  Because if we don't have that, Gordon, French and Santos will have considerable problems without space and Foreman will engage in more maddening walks to the basket than last year.

I hope we are there.  However, we don't know.  If all things are good and Pearson, Thatch and Jacobs can shoot it and we add a capable grad transfer, fine.  If Goodwin and Bess improve their shooting, another win.  If Johnson can add a few upticks to his percentage, we have a trifecta.  The options are there.  I don't think Ford was focused on that need when he was after Gordon, Pearson and Thatch, he would have still had Bishop, Graves and Henriquez under contract.  So this continues to be a setback right now.  Until I see proof that we are indeed better, I am hesitant to raise us to Premium at all let alone top shelf. 

My enthusiasm is high; but its been high before.  Maybe Gudmundsson is Vanilla Iceland or something and buries everything.  Who knows.  And let's remember, freshmen are all better at one thing -- being sophomores.  It is rare you get a talent like French and Goodwin year after year. 

Whatever we are, we are most certainly competitive.

[slu72]

Jacobs is going to surprise a lot of people and take over Roby's starting 5 role as an upgrade. Primary question about him is can he hit at a reasonable % from the 3, say 30-35%? Let's also bake in some improvement over the summer months for Goodwin and Bess from the perimeter. If we MBM's can see how important it is for those two to be more effective from beyond the arc, am sure Travis and staff know it as well and will stress this in the offseason. And since Johnson's strength is the perimeter let's count on him improving as well.

As for our inside game, supposedly Santos is an upgrade over DJ. Great. Still, DJ had his moments last year where he showed some flashes. I'd take another year of French just like his FR year, however, he's going to work on his offense and FT's. Imagine if he becomes deadly w/ that little one handed hook he displayed last year. Gordon looks ready but factor in some time for OJT both on defense and offense. Also, as Broy likes to point out we've got to be wary of his attitude. Hopefully, between Tate and Ford they can get him in line with the Team Blue first attitude. I don't get the feeling he's a totally "me first" type of guy on the floor like Malik, more that he's got a bit of a temper or chip on his shoulder. Maturity problem? 

Wellmer? I still don't get all the expectations of Wellmer. Was he really an effective big from the perimeter, ala Aldridge from Davidson? I must have blinked during his one season, because I didn't see it.

Thatch and Pearson? Any thing special we get from FR is gravy.

Bottom line; Guys have to improve over the summer. If they do, we're going to be tough to beat in the A10.  

[gobillsgo]

No chance we don't win the conference this season.  Mark it down.

 

We were competitive last year with six players most of the conference season.  With Goodwin back, and adding in Santos and Gordon, plus the rest of the freshmen, we will have depth we've never had.

[billiken_roy]

5 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Jacobs is going to surprise a lot of people and take over Roby's starting 5 role as an upgrade. Primary question about him is can he hit at a reasonable % from the 3, say 30-35%? Let's also bake in some improvement over the summer months for Goodwin and Bess from the perimeter. If we MBM's can see how important it is for those two to be more effective from beyond the arc, am sure Travis and staff know it as well and will stress this in the offseason. And since Johnson's strength is the perimeter let's count on him improving as well.

As for our inside game, supposedly Santos is an upgrade over DJ. Great. Still, DJ had his moments last year where he showed some flashes. I'd take another year of French just like his FR year, however, he's going to work on his offense and FT's. Imagine if he becomes deadly w/ that little one handed hook he displayed last year. Gordon looks ready but factor in some time for OJT both on defense and offense. Also, as Broy likes to point out we've got to be wary of his attitude. Hopefully, between Tate and Ford they can get him in line with the Team Blue first attitude. I don't get the feeling he's a totally "me first" type of guy on the floor like Malik, more that he's got a bit of a temper or chip on his shoulder. Maturity problem? 

Wellmer? I still don't get all the expectations of Wellmer. Was he really an effective big from the perimeter, ala Aldridge from Davidson? I must have blinked during his one season, because I didn't see it.

Thatch and Pearson? Any thing special we get from FR is gravy.

Bottom line; Guys have to improve over the summer. If they do, we're going to be tough to beat in the A10.  

from my read this is a pretty good post.   the only aspect i question, and this is more from a "i dont know either" aspect, is your confident high on jacobs.   i agree one of the freshmen wings have to step up or possibly johnson is able to go out there.   my guess come November if indeed a starting wing is johnson and not one of the freshmen, we are in trouble.   as i seriously doubt johnson will be able to guard A10 wings.   but what 72 gives you the impression that jacobs will be the emerging player that will grab the 5th starting spot at the wing?    

[billiken_roy]

3 minutes ago, gobillsgo said:

No chance we don't win the conference this season.  Mark it down.

 

We were competitive last year with six players most of the conference season.  With Goodwin back, and adding in Santos and Gordon, plus the rest of the freshmen, we will have depth we've never had.

dont underestimate the powers of a cheerleader and her henchwomen.   push comes to shove, pesty, stormy and krafty can and will alter your predicted chances on our season if another disaster shows up to knock our roster like last year.  plus to be able to "mark it down" you are taking some mighty presumed outcomes on these 5 freshmen.   i tend to agree with taj on freshmen.   all you can really count on is they will become sophomores.      

[dennis_w]

With only 6 returning players one or two of the freshman will have to make contributions or we have a repeat of last season. competitive but still short handed.

[TFord and TRavs]

3 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

With only 6 returning players one or two of the freshman will have to make contributions or we have a repeat of last season. competitive but still short handed.

False. We filled up with what we had taken away from us all last season. Yes our shooting was bad last year because we were short handed and somehow our 2 top shooters never saw the court 

[billiken_roy]

29 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said:

False. We filled up with what we had taken away from us all last season. Yes our shooting was bad last year because we were short handed and somehow our 2 top shooters never saw the court 

so you are guaranteeing we have a carbon copy of henriquez on the roster?   that is fantastic news.   i dont believe it but still great news.  

[bauman]

28 minutes ago, dennis_w said:

With only 6 returning players one or two of the freshman will have to make contributions or we have a repeat of last season. competitive but still short handed.

The way I count we only have 5 returning players (I don't count EW), JB, DF, JJ, HF, and JG, however, that is a quite a 5 to build from.  We lost 1 average (DR) and 2 sub-average (AH, RA) players and have replaced that weak graduating class with some outstanding talent, which immediately makes us more than competitive. Additionally, we should see real improvement from our 2 FR advancing to be SOPHs and let's remember how good they both were last year.  As some on this board like to say, the best thing about FR is that they become SOPHs.  I think we will be anything but shorthanded.  I see this as the most talented Billiken team in many, many years

[TFord and TRavs]

5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

so you are guaranteeing we have a carbon copy of henriquez on the roster?   that is fantastic news.   i dont believe it but still great news.  

The spots that were absent last year (a solid guard and shooters) were filled 

[billiken_roy]

7 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said:

The spots that were absent last year (a solid guard and shooters) were filled 

filled mean nothing.   taj and I can fill the spots.   do you have the equal or better of henriquez was the question.

[Billikenbooster]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

from my read this is a pretty good post.   the only aspect i question, and this is more from a "i dont know either" aspect, is your confident high on jacobs.   i agree one of the freshmen wings have to step up or possibly johnson is able to go out there.   my guess come November if indeed a starting wing is johnson and not one of the freshmen, we are in trouble.   as i seriously doubt johnson will be able to guard A10 wings.   but what 72 gives you the impression that jacobs will be the emerging player that will grab the 5th starting spot at the wing?    

Johnson cant defend 'out there'  he isnt quick enough, guards blow right by him, Roy.  JJ needs to be a 3, IMHO

mhg

[Billikenbooster]

sorry I didn't read your whole post.  I guess I agree with you, huh?

 

mhg

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Billikenbooster said:

Johnson cant defend 'out there'  he isnt quick enough, guards blow right by him, Roy.  JJ needs to be a 3, IMHO

mhg

there really isnt a big difference anymore between 2 and a 3 imo as most teams now play 4 out offenses.  you are either a point guard, an off guard or a big.  i agree we are in trouble if jj has to guard a guard.   and we wont get away with playing zone again imo.   teams will have had a year to think about attacking a 1-3-1 zone defense against the billikens.  use it for a possession or two but we will be forced to go back to man . 

[BIG BILL FAN]

4 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Disagreement, discussion and all out anarchy are welcome and encouraged.  Just my take.

I have lived through 43 seasons of "high offseason expectations" with this team and have come to add temperance to all things hyped.  As last year wore on, we were greatly influenced by the lack of depth on this team.  We all knew that; we all knew the bench was non-existent.  But not only was that bench hideously short, our overall talent level in the skill of shooting the basketball was also short.  All one has to do is look at the Golden State Warriors and realize the college version of that model was the Villanova Wildcats.  Four, five, six guys bombing away from behind the arc.  The mid-range game is dead .... you either dunk it for a sure two and get on Sportscenter or you shoot the three to trade 3 points for two.  In 017-18, we had  one guy with any consistency from three -- Jalen Johnson.  Defenses packed in on us, daring Roby and Hines to shoot it.  Bess was not consistent enough; neither was Goodwin.  To me, that remains the tipping point again as we move forward, who will shoot the rock from distance?  Because if we don't have that, Gordon, French and Santos will have considerable problems without space and Foreman will engage in more maddening walks to the basket than last year.

I hope we are there.  However, we don't know.  If all things are good and Pearson, Thatch and Jacobs can shoot it and we add a capable grad transfer, fine.  If Goodwin and Bess improve their shooting, another win.  If Johnson can add a few upticks to his percentage, we have a trifecta.  The options are there.  I don't think Ford was focused on that need when he was after Gordon, Pearson and Thatch, he would have still had Bishop, Graves and Henriquez under contract.  So this continues to be a setback right now.  Until I see proof that we are indeed better, I am hesitant to raise us to Premium at all let alone top shelf. 

My enthusiasm is high; but its been high before.  Maybe Gudmundsson is Vanilla Iceland or something and buries everything.  Who knows.  And let's remember, freshmen are all better at one thing -- being sophomores.  It is rare you get a talent like French and Goodwin year after year. 

Whatever we are, we are most certainly competitive.

I get your concern about the shooting, but the thing you may be overlooking is style of play. I think walking the ball down is a thing of the past. With our depth and athletic ability, I see this team as being a high pressure defensive and running team. Our transition play has a chance to be special.

[Taj79]

Excellent counter point, Big Bill.  Personally, I have a hard time remembering when the Bills "ran."

[Billikenbooster]

Charlie Newberry was the PG. Also, David Burns.

none since

mhg

[willie]

1 hour ago, Taj79 said:

Excellent counter point, Big Bill.  Personally, I have a hard time remembering when the Bills "ran."

EverySLU coach comes in and says they want to play uptempo. Every coach slows it down. We will have a lot of size next year. I don’t see us as fast breaking team. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

1 hour ago, willie said:

EverySLU coach comes in and says they want to play uptempo. Every coach slows it down. We will have a lot of size next year. I don’t see us as fast breaking team. 

Having size doesn't prevent a team from playing uptempo.  If your bigs can beat their bigs down the court, like French, Foreman, and Gordon can, it opens up opportunities to score in transition.  And most fastbreaks at the college level come off of steals.

[CBFan]

21 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-to Taj, I think JGood's shot was coming around as in non-con his 3pt% was 16.3% (8 for 49) while in conf it was 34.4% (11 for 32), so shot fewer and made more, if he can shoot 34% or more from 3 that makes him a very difficult player to defend

JGood also had something troubling him, S2, and that had a lot to do with his play yet he improved.  I think with JGood is on the brink of being something special with S2 in his rear view mirror.