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One Month Out ......


Taj79

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... from the A10 tournament in DC and a little over halfway through the conference season.  I usually do this with the caveat that I'll never do it again because the A10 is so unpredictable coming down the stretch.  But, emboldened by my recent climb up the "615 League" standings, I thought, "why not?'  So here's what I think we are looking at as the next step of the season, the conference tournament and auto-bid comes calling.

BLUF:  Bottom Line Up Front ---- Rhode Island is the sole representative for the A10 this year, right here and now.  The A10 is a Juan Bid League if no one other that Rode Island wins the tournament.  I believe they will finish the season with a 16 and 2 mark ---- which means 5 and 2 from here on out.  The two?  The big battle in Olean coming up next Friday and then a close out night on Senior Night at Davidson and Peyton Aldridge.  Right now, trends show the home teams favored in both even though URI is #18 and ESPN is tracking these two potential losses as well. 

As for our Billikens, any more "bad" S2.0 news and this will go all out the window but I can't see us stealing any more road wins but I am hopeful we should be able to defend the home fires and finish at 9 and 9.  This is in contrast to what some think will happen when Bonaventure comes to town to close things out.  The Bonnies have owned us recently (Jaylen Adams recent unconscious night notwithstanding).  but I think if we can do the same thing to their other players and hold Adams down to half of what he went off for in Olean, we could do it.  Losing that one means making it up on the road and the only place we might do that is in Richmond although I am skeptical.  A .500 finish puts us tied for 6th in my projections with Duquesne and we would get sixth based on a split with the Dukes and beating the Bonnies as the highest rated opponent.  Of course, all the rest would need to come true as well.

So after the Rams, I can see VCU at #2, the Bonnies at #3 and Richmond surprising all and coming in at #4.  Current #2 Davidson would fall to #5 and the PIG participants would be GeeDubya, Fordham, La Salle and Umass.  As the #6 seed, we would face the winner of the PIG game pitting #11 against #14 which would be any one of the four just mentioned.  We would likely be in the side of the bracket with VCU and the Bonnies here.

That's what I think.  Hold it against me later because, as records have shown, none of what is expected to happen happens.

 

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People on this board are underestimating St. Bonnie's position on the bubble.  ESPN talking heads regularly proclaim other teams with a worse profile in (not that they are right either).  I would suggest 5-2 finish, 2-1 tourney would put them in a more than likely position to get an at-large.  They have some tough games down the stretch Rhodey, at VCU, Davidson, at SLU but if they go 5-2 things will be decent for them.

The A-10 could very easily be one bid.  They could also be 3 bids.  They could also be 2 bids.  None of that changes the fact that this is a particularly weak year for the A-10 (and bids are given to teams not conferences).

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1 hour ago, kwyjibo said:

People on this board are underestimating St. Bonnie's position on the bubble.  ESPN talking heads regularly proclaim other teams with a worse profile in (not that they are right either).  I would suggest 5-2 finish, 2-1 tourney would put them in a more than likely position to get an at-large.  They have some tough games down the stretch Rhodey, at VCU, Davidson, at SLU but if they go 5-2 things will be decent for them.

The A-10 could very easily be one bid.  They could also be 3 bids.  They could also be 2 bids.  None of that changes the fact that this is a particularly weak year for the A-10 (and bids are given to teams not conferences).

While I agree that if Rhody wins the A10 tourney we likely will be a one bid league, St. Bonnie has begun to appear in the "next four out" groupings on several brackets.  Their current RPI is 47, which is just outside of where you want to be.  I see the Bonnies as having no room for error, and their upcoming game on Feb 16 vs Rhody, at the Reilly Center will be huge. They still have to go to Richmond against VCU.

If Adams continues to hit 3's at the 69% rate he shot the past two games, they may go undefeated. 

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A poster on the A10 Forum is keeping up with this.  The seedings were updated after Wednesday's games.  I assume he/she knows what the tiebreakers involve.

TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE
Wednesday, March 7 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 1: 12. Saint Joseph's (4-7) vs 13. Fordham (3-8) 6:00 PM
Game 2: 11. Massachusetts (4-7) vs 14. George Washington (3-8) 8:30 PM

Thursday, March 8 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 3: 8. Dayton (5-6) vs 9. George Mason (4-7) 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 4: 5. VCU (6-5) vs Game 1 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 5: 7. Duquesne (6-6) vs 10. La Salle (4-7) 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 6: 6. Saint Louis (6-6) vs Game 2 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Friday, March 9 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 7: 1. Rhode Island (11-0) vs Game 3 Winner 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 8: 4. St Bonaventure (7-4) vs Game 4 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 9: 2. Davidson (8-3) vs Game 5 Winner 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 10: 3. Richmond (7-4) vs Game 6 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Saturday, March 10 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs Game 8 Winner 1:00 PM CBS Sports Network
Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs Game 10 Winner 3:30 PM CBS Sports Network

Sunday, March 12 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 13: Championship Game 1:00 PM CBS

SEEDS
1. Rhode Island (11-0)
2. Davidson (8-3)
3. Richmond (7-4)*
4. St Bonaventure (7-4)
5. VCU (6-5)
6. Saint Louis (6-6)&
7. Duquesne (6-6)
8. Dayton (5-6)
9. George Mason (4-7)^
10. La Salle (4-7)^^
11. Massachusetts (4-7)^^^
12. Saint Joseph's (4-7)
13. Fordham (3-8)%
14. George Washington (3-8)

*based on 2-0 record vs Davidson (SBU is 0-1 vs Davidson) [no head to head, Richmond has not played URI]
& based on head to head victory over Duquesne
^ based on 2-0 record against the other teams 4-7
^^ based on 2-1 record against the other teams 4-7
^^^ based on 2-2 record against the other teams 4-7 [St Joe's 0-3]
% based on 1-1 record vs teams 6-4 (GW 0-2 vs teams 6-4) [no head to head, both lost to URI and Davidson]
 

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18 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

A poster on the A10 Forum is keeping up with this.  The seedings were updated after Wednesday's games.  I assume he/she knows what the tiebreakers involve.

TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE
Wednesday, March 7 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 1: 12. Saint Joseph's (4-7) vs 13. Fordham (3-8) 6:00 PM
Game 2: 11. Massachusetts (4-7) vs 14. George Washington (3-8) 8:30 PM

Thursday, March 8 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 3: 8. Dayton (5-6) vs 9. George Mason (4-7) 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 4: 5. VCU (6-5) vs Game 1 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 5: 7. Duquesne (6-6) vs 10. La Salle (4-7) 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 6: 6. Saint Louis (6-6) vs Game 2 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Friday, March 9 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 7: 1. Rhode Island (11-0) vs Game 3 Winner 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 8: 4. St Bonaventure (7-4) vs Game 4 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 9: 2. Davidson (8-3) vs Game 5 Winner 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 10: 3. Richmond (7-4) vs Game 6 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Saturday, March 10 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs Game 8 Winner 1:00 PM CBS Sports Network
Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs Game 10 Winner 3:30 PM CBS Sports Network

Sunday, March 12 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 13: Championship Game 1:00 PM CBS

SEEDS
1. Rhode Island (11-0)
2. Davidson (8-3)
3. Richmond (7-4)*
4. St Bonaventure (7-4)
5. VCU (6-5)
6. Saint Louis (6-6)&
7. Duquesne (6-6)
8. Dayton (5-6)
9. George Mason (4-7)^
10. La Salle (4-7)^^
11. Massachusetts (4-7)^^^
12. Saint Joseph's (4-7)
13. Fordham (3-8)%
14. George Washington (3-8)

*based on 2-0 record vs Davidson (SBU is 0-1 vs Davidson) [no head to head, Richmond has not played URI]
& based on head to head victory over Duquesne
^ based on 2-0 record against the other teams 4-7
^^ based on 2-1 record against the other teams 4-7
^^^ based on 2-2 record against the other teams 4-7 [St Joe's 0-3]
% based on 1-1 record vs teams 6-4 (GW 0-2 vs teams 6-4) [no head to head, both lost to URI and Davidson]
 

I would sure take this draw. Still hoping we can finish higher than 6 though 

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st bonnie is currently 47 rpi.   my belief is that in most years a top 40 rpi has you in.   if st bonnie can upset rhodey and maybe only lose one remaining game, i think their rpi will be more than safe to be an at large team.  especially if they are playing in the championship game of the conference tourney.

rhodey is the only safe team imo.   currently at realrpi.com they are the 5th ranked rpi team.   the corrupt committee will never let them have a #2 seed and i will be surprised if they are any higher than say a 5.   but they deserve to be our lone respected team.  

so if st bonnie only loses 2 more games with one being the championship of the tourney and rhodey only loses 2 more games st bonnie and a game in the conference tourney and someone not being st bonnie or rhodey gets the tourney championship the A-10 will indeed get 3 bids.   

that said, rhodey likely wins out including the conference tourney.  st bonnie loses 3 regular season games and one in the conference tourney and rhodey then becomes our lone represenative and since our conference is indeed a juan bid conference, the committee takes great joy in making a very good rhodey team a 9 seed and they are out in either the first or second round.  

 

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And I swear I never saw that A10 stuff until here.  The one point I disagree with most vociferously is Davidson at #2.  But McKillop is a good coach.  They got beat pretty handily tonight by URI's six-headed backcourt.

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Updated by a poster on the A10 forum after Sat games.  If we beat Richmond this week, we will have the tiebreaker.  We have to be one game up on VCU to jump them as they won our head to head.  This week is HUGE for our tourney seeding.

TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE
Wednesday, March 7 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 1: 12. Fordham (4-8) vs 13. Massachusetts (4-8) 6:00 PM
Game 2: 11. La Salle (4-8) vs 14. George Washington (3-9) 8:30 PM

Thursday, March 8 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 3: 8. George Mason (5-7) vs 9. Saint Joseph's (5-7) 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 4: 5. VCU (7-5) vs Game 1 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 5: 7. Duquesne (6-7) vs 10. Dayton (5-7) 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 6: 6. Saint Louis (7-6) vs Game 2 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Friday, March 9 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 7: 1. Rhode Island (12-0) vs Game 3 Winner 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 8: 4. Richmond (7-5) vs Game 4 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 9: 2. Davidson (8-4) vs Game 5 Winner 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 10: 3. St Bonaventure (8-4) vs Game 6 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Saturday, March 10 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs Game 8 Winner 1:00 PM CBS Sports Network
Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs Game 10 Winner 3:30 PM CBS Sports Network

Sunday, March 12 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 13: Championship Game 1:00 PM CBS

SEEDS
1. Rhode Island (12-0)
2. Davidson (8-4)*
3. St Bonaventure (8-4)
4. Richmond (7-5)&
5. VCU (7-5)
6. Saint Louis (7-6)
7. Duquesne (6-7)
8. George Mason (5-7)^
9. Saint Joseph's (5-7)^^
10. Dayton (5-7)
11. La Salle (4-8)%
12. Fordham (4-8)%%
13. Massachusetts (4-8)
14. George Washington (3-9)

* based on head to head victory over St Bonaventure
& based on 2-0 record against VCU
^ based on 1-0 record vs the other teams 5-7
^^ based on 1-1 record vs the other teams 5-7 (Dayton is 0-1 vs the other teams 5-7)
% based on 2-1 record vs the other teams 4-8
%% based on 1-1 record vs the other teams 4-8 (UMass is 1-2 vs the other teams 4-8)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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You can buy a whole tournament pass or a session pass.  Usually two games per session ---- the noon and 2:30 game and then the six and 8:30 games.  The cheap seats are in the end zones but moving around was never a problem anywhere.

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I will admit that St. Bonaventure has a weaker profile once you let in Margin of Victory and Efficiency ratings (high 50's in Sagarin and worse in Pomeroy) but their RPI will get them a serious look even if they lose 3 more games.   They have wins over Syracuse, Maryland, Vermont and Buffalo that all greatly help them.  They have avoided bad losses in the A-10 and their worse loss will be to Niagra (who will be under 200).  Remember that RPI is 75% who you play and their RPI will get better just by playing Rhode Island.  The rest of their schedule (besides Duquesne) will generally help.

If they do something like beat Rhode Island and still lose 2 more games their RPI would be in the high 20's or low 30's--they would be in tourney with  3-5 top 50 wins (St. Bonaventure needs Buffalo to stay strong down the stretch but they will likely be top 50) and beating Rhode Island would give them a top 25 win.  Going 4-2 down the stretch with a loss in the A-10 final would get them to around upper 30's in the RPI and they would more than likely be in (although this is where their bad Pomeroy/Sagarin would hurt so I would put their odds at greater than 50% but it would then depend on available at large spots).

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53 minutes ago, kwyjibo said:

I will admit that St. Bonaventure has a weaker profile once you let in Margin of Victory and Efficiency ratings (high 50's in Sagarin and worse in Pomeroy) but their RPI will get them a serious look even if they lose 3 more games.   They have wins over Syracuse, Maryland, Vermont and Buffalo that all greatly help them.  They have avoided bad losses in the A-10 and their worse loss will be to Niagra (who will be under 200).  Remember that RPI is 75% who you play and their RPI will get better just by playing Rhode Island.  The rest of their schedule (besides Duquesne) will generally help.

If they do something like beat Rhode Island and still lose 2 more games their RPI would be in the high 20's or low 30's--they would be in tourney with  3-5 top 50 wins (St. Bonaventure needs Buffalo to stay strong down the stretch but they will likely be top 50) and beating Rhode Island would give them a top 25 win.  Going 4-2 down the stretch with a loss in the A-10 final would get them to around upper 30's in the RPI and they would more than likely be in (although this is where their bad Pomeroy/Sagarin would hurt so I would put their odds at greater than 50% but it would then depend on available at large spots).

I think Bona probably needs to have a much stronger profile than BCS conference teams like Syracuse or Maryland to get it.  Therefore, I think they can only lose 2 more games (1 reg season 1 conf tourney) and still be safe for an at-large.   

Interesting question: if Bona wins all of their games with the exception of Rhody or VCU, would you rather they beat SLU in the final reg season game to improve their at-large chances (more NCAA money for the A-10 and SLU) or do you want a potentially meaningless win for SLU (since we need to win the A-10 tournament to get in).

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Always want the Bills to win. Yes would be nice to have more than one team in the conference at the dance, but a strong finish for SLU after this tumultuous year means more, IMHO. Recruiting will be better, ticket sales will increase, better media exposure by PD ( which always sucks).  Beat the Bonnies!  Win at least one of the road games coming up would be huge.

mhg

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The Capital Center, GeeDubya and the home field advantage ...... not really.

The only game George Washington plays at the Cap Center is the annual BB&T Class, held around the first week of December.  They played in it from 1995 through this year, missing only 2015.  The format has changed over the years, from doubleheaders on two nights, to one tripleheader, to a few one-night, two games formats.  It started as an annual event involving Maryland and GeeDubya and two other national teams but with NCAA scheduling changes and the like, its a typical early season tournament like Wounded Warrior, the Barclays and so on.  This year, GeeDubya beat Temple 71 to 67 to go to 4 and 4 on the year.  Since then, they are 6 and 11.  Maryland dropped out in 2012.

A "crowd" is questionable there for GeeDunya.  Heck, a crowd for them at their own Smith Center is questionable.  A crowd for a current down Georgetown team --- the real home team here --- is also questionable. Smith holds about 5,000 and is always half empty.  Much like SLU and the Post-Dispatch,  Geedubya is at best a distant third in their own metro market behind Maryland and Georgetown.  Then there is further competition with Mason, American, Catholic, Howard, Navy and other locals.  By the time March rolls around, especially this year with no local teams really in the NCAA hunt, lacrosse takes over the area.  Geedubya is predominantly stocked with foreigners --- given the type of school it is. There is no rally around the flag because there are too many of them.

I suspect, like most other A10 tournaments, it will be sparsely attended until the final when the traveling schools of the A10 ---- VCU, Dayton and possibly Rhode Island --- show if they make the finals.

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Well .. instead of waiting for reality to take over, the inept SLU administration has decided to do that for me with the suspension of Jordan Goodwin.  I believe this decision will cause us to close out on a 1 and 4 run posting a conference mark of 8 and 12.  That's reall yonly a one game differential (we don't beat the Bonnies at home) but it could screw up the tiebreakers and all that. 

Wait til next year .... again .....

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According to the poster on the A10 forum, who seems to know what he is doing, the Bills - today - are the 5th seed.  Richmond, SLU and VCU all have 7-6 records, tied for 4th, yet Richmond gets the nod for the 4th seed with 2 wins over VCU and a loss to us.  We are 1-1 v the other two, and VCU 1-2, earning the 6th seed.  This all changes Saturday when we play Richmond. 

In a quirk, if we  beat Richmond, and if VCU wins at GW, VCU jumps us having won the head to head. 

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Last night's results skewered the pooch ...... wins by Davidson, Mason, St. Joe's and Geedubya.  That part of the initial projection was right on ---- things go unpredictably haywire this time of every year.

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Updated by A10 poster this morning.  Looks good.  If this stands, we might have to defeat Richmond 3 times this season.  Dayton will be a desperate team Tuesday.  They are one game out of the PIG.

TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE
Wednesday, March 7 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 1: 12. La Salle (5-9) vs 13. Fordham (4-10) 6:00 PM
Game 2: 11. George Washington (5-9) vs 14. Massachusetts (4-10) 8:30 PM

Thursday, March 8 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 3: 8. Duquesne (6-8) vs 9. George Mason (6-8) 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 4: 5. Richmond (7-7) vs Game 1 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 5: 7. VCU (7-7) vs 10. Dayton (6-8) 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 6: 6. Saint Joseph's (7-7) vs Game 2 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Friday, March 9 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 7: 1. Rhode Island (13-1) vs Game 3 Winner 12:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 8: 4. Saint Louis (8-6) vs Game 4 Winner 2:30 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 9: 2. Davidson (10-4) vs Game 5 Winner 6:00 PM NBC Sports Network
Game 10: 3. St Bonaventure (10-4) vs Game 6 Winner 8:30 PM NBC Sports Network

Saturday, March 10 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs Game 8 Winner 1:00 PM CBS Sports Network
Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs Game 10 Winner 3:30 PM CBS Sports Network

Sunday, March 12 at Capital One Arena Washington, DC
Game 13: Championship Game 1:00 PM CBS

SEEDS
1. Rhode Island (13-1)
2. Davidson (10-4)*
3. St Bonaventure (10-4)
4. Saint Louis (8-6)
5. Richmond (7-7)&
6. Saint Joseph's (7-7)&&
7. VCU (7-7)
8. Duquesne (6-8)^
9. George Mason (6-8)^^
10. Dayton (6-8)
11. George Washington (5-9)%
12. La Salle (5-9)
13. Fordham (4-10)$
14. Massachusetts (4-10)

* based on head to head victory over St Bonaventure
& based on 2-0 record against other teams 7-7
&& based on 1-0 rocord against other teams 7-7 (VCU is 0-3)
^ based on 2-1 record against other teams 6-8
^^ based on 1-1 record against other teams 6-8 (Dayton is 1-2)
% based on head to head victory over La Salle
$ based on head to head victory over UMass

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Win G11 it's doable in the final. If we do dance this is the only path. If we do we will surely become team everyone is rooting for. Can't imagine any way we would be favored in any of the 5 games we need to win to take home the trophy.

If we finish 500 or above and look respectable in any future losses, TF should have pretty easy sell to some hot shooting guard to play 35 mpg from day 1 with a great group of players and a coach that got it done with small handful of studs while losing services of almost same size handful of other studs. and be joined by 3 incoming studs the same age as the dream recruit who all may have HS championship rings by end of this year. The small list of high rated uncommitted HS senior guards are all in same boat as Ramey regarding $$ from the blue bloods this year so that incentive is out. If a seed of doubt is there that going to the elite teams has a Russian roulette chance of being the sixth man or worse might also steer them to us.

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