Class Record Watch - 2017-2018

[Pistol]

18 games in, we're past the mid-season mark by a couple now (31 scheduled games, 32 minimum with the A10 Tournament).

-Hasahn French finally jumped past the logjam in the freshman season blocks top 10, now alone in third with 33 blocks on the season. Willie Reed is second at 40. He still should best Melvin Robinson's all-time record of 51. French is currently on pace for #7 in rebounding average (one lower, if Goodwin bests him), and would be about #6 in total rebounding, with an outside chance to climb into the top 5 if he can top 196 (Willie Becton; Johnnie Parker is 6th, with 180). If his current percentage held, he'd be tied with Carl Johnson for 9th in FG percentage (.496), bumping Dwayne Evans.

-Jordan Goodwin's 10.8 points per game would put him in 10th in freshman scoring average, bumping Cody Ellis, and he'll be solidly in the mix for total points, currently looking to finish anywhere from about 3rd through 7th, with a chance to reach Monroe Douglas' 406 points (Larry Hughes is comfortably holding first at 670 points and 20.9 PPG). If averages hold, he'd be tied for 5th in rebounding average and in the mix for 2nd-6th in total rebounds. He's going to be close to Kwamain Mitchell's lead with 113 assists. He's going to be very close to first in steals, too - Hughes had 69 and he's right on that pace. He's got 8 blocks, and he needs 20 to crack the list so that one's possible but unlikely.

-Jalen Johnson's 3-point percentage remains a little outside the sophomore top 10 (.360 is 10th, he's at .347). But he's still on pace to be as high as 6th on the total 3-pointers list, with a chance to be a spot or two higher. With 13 blocks, he's also on pace to be in the middle of the top 10 all-time for sophomores.

-Javon Bess' scoring needs to pick up significantly for him to crack the top 10 lists (Bonner is 10th at 15.5 and Bess sits at 12.9 currently, while Kevin Lisch's 453 points are a little out of reach unless he picks it up. He should be close to the steals list, which is a tight bunch - 44 would tie him for 10th, and 49 would put him alone at 5th. He's got 25, so he's in the mix.

-D.J. Foreman would be the all-time leader in FG percentage for juniors, currently at .629 (Tom Frericks is currently tops on the list at .574). However, you need at least 100 attempts to make the list, and he's got 62, so if his minutes stay as high as they have been the past few games, he should reach that. Foreman has the unusual split of being .629 from the field and .444 from the line.

-Davell Roby is now in the mix for three pointers made; Cobbin is 10th on the senior list, with 52. At .416, he's also now on pace for 7th on the 3-point percentage list, which would bump John Duff from 10th at .401.

-Aaron Hines, Rashed Anthony, and Markos Psimitis are currently not on pace to come within reach of any class records.

[RUBillsFan]

Dreaming on Jordan Goodwin's stats:

Assumptions:

• he stays 4 years,
• team averages 34 games per year (need a couple of post-season runs to get there, but possible)
• remains healthy (knock on wood)
• increases his PPG by 1 each year
• all other stats remain basically the same year over year

He would finish:

• 1st in career games played w 136
• 1st or 2nd for minutes played
• 6th or 7th in total points
• 4th in total rebounds
• 1st in assists (by over 100 assists)
• Within single digits of top 10 in blocks
• 1st in steals (by over 100 steals)

Assuming health, I think those are fairly conservative estimates because they don't include much / any improvement year over year.

 

[Pistol]

That's awesome. He has a chance to be an all-time great.

[Old guy]

After watching last night's game I agree he does have a chance to get there.

[wgstl]

2 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

Dreaming on Jordan Goodwin's stats:

Assumptions:

• increases his PPG by 1 each year
• 6th or 7th in total points

 

And just think about the horrible shooting start to the season

[NH]

2 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

Dreaming on Jordan Goodwin's stats:

Assumptions:

• he stays 4 years,
• team averages 34 games per year (need a couple of post-season runs to get there, but possible)
• remains healthy (knock on wood)
• increases his PPG by 1 each year
• all other stats remain basically the same year over year

He would finish:

• 1st in career games played w 136
• 1st or 2nd for minutes played
• 6th or 7th in total points
• 4th in total rebounds
• 1st in assists (by over 100 assists)
• Within single digits of top 10 in blocks
• 1st in steals (by over 100 steals)

Assuming health, I think those are fairly conservative estimates because they don't include much / any improvement year over year.

 

I wonder how he’s viewed as an NBA prospect. He definitely has the size to be a point guard. I expect any judgement will come down to athleticism and shooting ability, both categories I expect him to improve in the coming years.

[wgstl]

9 minutes ago, NH said:

I wonder how he’s viewed as an NBA prospect. He definitely has the size to be a point guard. I expect any judgement will come down to athleticism and shooting ability, both categories I expect him to improve in the coming years.

Id say hes projects to play 3 years in college. 

There are 100 reasons why Goodwin has and should be compared to Marcus smart. 

Marcus played two years: his first year stats compared to goodwins

         pts/reb/ast/stl

MS -15/6/4/3

JG- 11/7/4/2

_____________________

Marcus left after two years, I would think goodwin should have those same stats if not better by year 3.  

 

Also as I noted earlier, Goodwin would be averaging almost 12 maybe 13 ppg if it wasn't for his extremely slow start, a slow start probably due to recovering from surgery. 

 

[almaman]

hears hoping he stays 4 years. NBA does seem possible but I think his stock rises higher if he's 4 years. 

[billiken_roy]

the one aspect imo that you all are missing when comparing goodwin to smart, is the higher profile school and conference smart was playing in.  Goodwin will be "penalized' accordingly for being a billiken and being the a-10 likely.   well unless the billikens are in the final four and goodwin is the principal reason why.   then as we all know the talking heads take over and force the scouts to re-evaluate.   

i agree goodwin has an incredible future, but it is a little early to have him in any future nba draft imo.    biggest thing he needs to do is increase all his numbers and in particular his % of shots made from all angles (fg% 3 pt % and ft %).    

 

 

[wgstl]

3 minutes ago, almaman said:

hears hoping he stays 4 years. NBA does seem possible but I think his stock rises higher if he's 4 years. 

The biggest issue, NBA teams are obsessed with age.  

[almaman]

3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

the one aspect imo that you all are missing when comparing goodwin to smart, is the higher profile school and conference smart was playing in.  Goodwin will be "penalized' accordingly for being a billiken and being the a-10 likely.   well unless the billikens are in the final four and goodwin is the principal reason why.   then as we all know the talking heads take over and force the scouts to re-evaluate.   

i agree goodwin has an incredible future, but it is a little early to have him in any future nba draft imo.    biggest thing he needs to do is increase all his numbers and in particular his % of shots made from all angles (fg% 3 pt % and ft %).    

 

 

Sobering coming from his sponsor.

Is what we've seen so far what you expected?

[billiken_roy]

2 minutes ago, wgstl said:

The biggest issue, NBA teams are obsessed with age.  

i was thinking the same thing.    examples, fred van vleet and ron baker recent wichita state alums.  both played 4 years at wichita state and currently both play a ton in the nba for the raptors and the knicks.   yet neither were drafted.   the draft is all about emerging potential.  nothing about being a solid polished player.  

[billiken_roy]

3 minutes ago, almaman said:

Sobering coming from his sponsor.

Is what we've seen so far what you expected?

actually i expected more.   in high school he would finish drives to the basket and put back rebounds with rim shaking dunks.   i think he has 2 maybe three dunks this year.   he probably averaged 3-4 dunks a game in high school.   so the size and physical play difference of high school compared to college has had a much larger impact than i expected.   i also believe that same physical adaptation is responsible for his shooting percentage.   but as he grows, he will adapt.   we are already seeing it.  

[brianstl]

Goodwin's shot is regressing again.  In his lat six games he has shot 33.9%.  He has a ton of work to do with his shot before anyone should start talking about the NBA.

[NH]

13 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Goodwin's shot is regressing again.  In his lat six games he has shot 33.9%.  He has a ton of work to do with his shot before anyone should start talking about the NBA.

It’s not too early to start talking about it. I’m sure NBA teams are aware of him and following those same shooting numbers you’re referencing.

Nobody is saying Jordan is about to leave but it’s fair to start pondering whether that potential exists down the road. 

[HoosierPal]

50 minutes ago, wgstl said:

The biggest issue, NBA teams are obsessed with age.  

Very true.  Last draft, 10 of the first 11 picks were Freshmen, and 16 of the 30 in the first round were freshmen.  2018 Mocks show 8 of the first 9 and as many as 18 freshmen taken in the first round.  All first rounders receive guaranteed contracts.  The NBA has gone all in on youth, potential, or whatever you want to call it.  As each year in college goes by, the odds of a guaranteed contract diminish.  Last draft only two seniors and two juniors were first rounders.  If you get a sniff, you go. 

[willie]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

the one aspect imo that you all are missing when comparing goodwin to smart, is the higher profile school and conference smart was playing in.  Goodwin will be "penalized' accordingly for being a billiken and being the a-10 likely.   well unless the billikens are in the final four and goodwin is the principal reason why.   then as we all know the talking heads take over and force the scouts to re-evaluate.   

i agree goodwin has an incredible future, but it is a little early to have him in any future nba draft imo.    biggest thing he needs to do is increase all his numbers and in particular his % of shots made from all angles (fg% 3 pt % and ft %).    

 

 

Roy you are not being very consistent here. In another post you were saying our 3 could drop down to division 2 and play immediately and if good enough the scouts would find them. 

[billiken_roy]

10 minutes ago, willie said:

Roy you are not being very consistent here. In another post you were saying our 3 could drop down to division 2 and play immediately and if good enough the scouts would find them. 

I'm not following your thoughts on inconsistency at all.

I'm saying at this point Goodwin isn't good enough to be draft worthy.   But in a previous thread my statement was more about if henriquez goes to D2 averages 35 a game makes near 50% of his three point shots mostly from NBA range he would be NBA draftable.  Whats inconsistent?

[Pistol]

NBA scouts have no trouble finding the guys they want.

It's rare to see guys drafted out of lower divisions. Chances are, if NCAA basketball isn't going to work out for a kid for whatever reason, he's either going to spend a year-plus playing pro elsewhere or working with personal coaches and trainers to prep for the draft. So going to a lower division doesn't really do anything to help a guy who has a shot to be drafted.

Goodwin would need to make a big leap next year to go two-and-done like Marcus Smart did. If he improves incrementally over three seasons, he's got a shot. PGs are getting bigger. Smart wasn't a great shooter, either, but he was a little more athletic and explosive at this point. Again, not out of reach for Goodwin; Smart was just a notch above him.

[kshoe]

5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

I'm not following your thoughts on inconsistency at all.

I'm saying at this point Goodwin isn't good enough to be draft worthy.   But in a previous thread my statement was more about if henriquez goes to D2 averages 35 a game makes near 50% of his three point shots mostly from NBA range he would be NBA draftable.  Whats inconsistent?

You said Goodwin will be penalized by NBA people for being in the A10, not a Power 6 conference. You've also said AH could play D2 and still make the NBA. While technically ANYTHING could happen, you'd think if there is a "penalty" for going from Power 6 to A10, there would an even steeper penalty for going from A10 to D2.

 

 

[billiken_roy]

2 minutes ago, kshoe said:

You said Goodwin will be penalized by NBA people for being in the A10, not a Power 6 conference. You've also said AH could play D2 and still make the NBA. While technically ANYTHING could happen, you'd think if there is a "penalty" for going from Power 6 to A10, there would an even steeper penalty for going from A10 to D2.

 

 

but if earned, he would get drafted at either the a-10 or at mckendree.   still not following the inconsistency part.    

[kshoe]

12 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

but if earned, he would get drafted at either the a-10 or at mckendree.   still not following the inconsistency part.    

If earned, Goodwin will get drafted in the A10 and won't get "penalized" as you say. Just seems inconsistent to say someone will get penalized for playing in the A-10 vs. Big 12, but won't get penalized for playing in D2 instead of the A10.

Again, there can be very rare examples where someone overcomes the "penalties" associated with playing in a lower conference but to suggest, as I believe you have in previous posts, that moving to D2 wouldn't be a huge penalty for AH seems off. 

[billiken_roy]

I never said a player wouldn't get penalized for being at the D2 level.  I said if they are good enough they will be found. 

 You as usual are making things up.   

[Pistol]

A little more color on D-II as it relates to the NBA:

Comprehensive list of D-II players who made the NBA or ABA

Until this season, the most recent D-II players to appear in the NBA were Flip Murray (ret. 2010), and Darrell Armstrong and Ben Wallace (Virginia Union, which also produced Charles Oakley), who wrapped up their careers in 2008. Earl Monroe is probably the best D-II player of all time.

Devean George was drafted out of D-III (Augsburg) in 2002 and had a solid career that ended in 2010. He's the most recent D-III player chosen; you have to go back a ways to see more D-III players in the league - back to the days of Jack Simka and Vern Mikkelsen.

When you go to NAIA, you get Pippen, Rodman, and Terry Porter. NAIA now is used as a stopgap between HS and NCAA D-I or D-II. It's not very likely you'll see many guys come from NAIA to the pros anymore.

2017-2018 opening day roster stats - 2 players went to non-Division-I schools: Josh Magette (Alabama-Huntsville, D-II) and I can't figure out the other one at the moment.

[RUBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Goodwin would need to make a big leap next year to go two-and-done like Marcus Smart did. If he improves incrementally over three seasons, he's got a shot. PGs are getting bigger. Smart wasn't a great shooter, either, but he was a little more athletic and explosive at this point. Again, not out of reach for Goodwin; Smart was just a notch above him.

Another thing to consider is that Smart was ranked more highly coming out of HS (#10 overall based on my Googling).  Therefore, NBA scouts were already all over him.  I seem to remember that there was some surprise that he didn't go pro after his freshman year.  Goodwin was very highly ranked for SLU (#60ish IIRC), but not high enough to where NBA would be viewing him as a potential one and done.  Obviously rankings likely had to do with athleticism and explosiveness that you mention.  Smart is also slightly bigger listed at 6-4 compared to 6-3 for Goodwin.