Recruiting - 2021

[NextYearBill]

1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

My sense on 2021 is that for it to be a local windfall, Nesbitt or Kern need to commit in the next 6-8 weeks. Then there's a domino effect, where an additional local kid gets in, and maybe a third does on the basis of the herd effect.

I imagine if Ford fills all three schollies on the Fall signing date, the message will be loud and clear to 2022 class: get in early, because a SLU scholarship might not be open forever. And if Larry Hughes Jr. declares for SLU in March 2021, it will send a resounding message for the rest of the 2022 guys. 

This is all to say that Nesbitt is probably the most pivotal recruit since Goodwin. If Nesbitt comes to SLU as a legit 4* prospect with insane offers, it will produce some powerful waves that give Ford a tremendous position of strength for 2021, 2022, and 2023. 

I’m ready to run thru a brick wall now 

[TheChosenOne]

1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

This is all to say that Nesbitt is probably the most pivotal recruit since Goodwin. If Nesbitt comes to SLU as a legit 4* prospect with insane offers, it will produce some powerful waves that give Ford a tremendous position of strength for 2021, 2022, and 2023. 

I never really saw Nesbitt as this, but could certainly see Nesbitt leading to us getting Kern. I don’t see either as then directly leading to others though as I think they are different cats than the other 2021 and 2022 local kids you would want. For 2021, I’m not sure who else beyond those two Billiken fans would want, Yaya from DeSmet and then I’m not sure. We seem to be in good shape with Reed and Hughes for 2022 and again I’m not sure whether Nesbitt and Kern would move that needle much. I think Love or Fletcher could have been local 2020 statement gets and then see Reed and Hughes being that in 2022, but I’m not really there with Nesbitt.

[3star_recruit]

Nesbitt has the most options of the 2021 recruits. He doesn't have a burning desire to stay home like Goodwin did. Most likely he will be the last player to commit.

If there's any domino effect with future recruits, it would be the result of a Sweet 16 run with the guys that are already here.

[SLURadioBoy]

55 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Nesbitt has the most options of the 2021 recruits. He doesn't have a burning desire to stay home like Goodwin did. Most likely he will be the last player to commit.

If there's any domino effect with future recruits, it would be the result of a Sweet 16 run with the guys that are already here.

@3star_recruit, how do you think Nesbitt would do in the A10? I feel like with his height and scoring ability, he could dominate, but you’d probably a better judge in talent than me.

[3star_recruit]

20 minutes ago, SLURadioBoy said:

@3star_recruit, how do you think Nesbitt would do in the A10? I feel like with his height and scoring ability, he could dominate, but you’d probably a better judge in talent than me.

I'll repost my thoughts about Nesbitt from January:

 

[SLURadioBoy]

Thanks! I figured you had already commented on this in the past.

[Crewsorlose]

23 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

I never really saw Nesbitt as this, but could certainly see Nesbitt leading to us getting Kern. I don’t see either as then directly leading to others though as I think they are different cats than the other 2021 and 2022 local kids you would want. For 2021, I’m not sure who else beyond those two Billiken fans would want, Yaya from DeSmet and then I’m not sure. We seem to be in good shape with Reed and Hughes for 2022 and again I’m not sure whether Nesbitt and Kern would move that needle much. I think Love or Fletcher could have been local 2020 statement gets and then see Reed and Hughes being that in 2022, but I’m not really there with Nesbitt.

Part of it is about Nesbitt, but part of it (in my mind at least) is about the timing. Suppose Nesbit waits, and Kern + one of the De Smet bigs + another 2021 guy commit by September. Granted, a scholly tends to shake loose, but that does send a message that you might want to get in pretty quick. My sense is that gives Ford a little leverage, so that he's recruiting downhill instead of on even ground where he is now, or uphill, as was the case from 2017-2019.

[3star_recruit]

7 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Part of it is about Nesbitt, but part of it (in my mind at least) is about the timing. Suppose Nesbit waits, and Kern + one of the De Smet bigs + another 2021 guy commit by September. Granted, a scholly tends to shake loose, but that does send a message that you might want to get in pretty quick. My sense is that gives Ford a little leverage, so that he's recruiting downhill instead of on even ground where he is now, or uphill, as was the case from 2017-2019.

It sends a message to other 3 star recruits.  Four star recruits have a lot more options.  There's no such thing as a mid-major pressuring a blue-chip recruit into committing early.  

[slu72]

Don’t know squat about Nesbit, but w/ the exception of JGood and Gordon, SLU still doesn’t appear to be an attractive landing spot for the areas 4 and 5 star players. They all seem to want the bright lights of the P5 schools. Travis is killing it w/ the local 3 star guys and finding hidden gems elsewhere, eg Bell, Jimerson, Jacobs. So, I don’t see where a kid like Nesbit is vital or key to our future success. Yeah, he would be a terrific get, but we’ll be fine w/o him. 
If we can someday get to a Gonzaga level our chances with the local/area top 100 kids will likely go up. But until that day, Travis is gonna need some luck. 

[Aquinas]

36 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Don’t know squat about Nesbit, but w/ the exception of JGood and Gordon, SLU still doesn’t appear to be an attractive landing spot for the areas 4 and 5 star players. They all seem to want the bright lights of the P5 schools. Travis is killing it w/ the local 3 star guys and finding hidden gems elsewhere, eg Bell, Jimerson, Jacobs. So, I don’t see where a kid like Nesbit is vital or key to our future success. Yeah, he would be a terrific get, but we’ll be fine w/o him. 
If we can someday get to a Gonzaga level our chances with the local/area top 100 kids will likely go up. But until that day, Travis is gonna need some luck. 

Terrence Hargrove in last years class is an ESPN 4 star recruit. And Okoro the transfer in this years class is a 4 star. 

[Crewsorlose]

5 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

It sends a message to other 3 star recruits.  Four star recruits have a lot more options.  There's no such thing as a mid-major pressuring a blue-chip recruit into committing early.  

Nesbitt is not exactly blue chip in the way Caleb Love was. He doesn't have offers from the blue bloods. I reject your premise about mid-major. If Ford keeps bringing in guys like Okoro, and, more importantly, if guys sign earlier, then it sends a message one way or another. Who knows what Ford has up his sleeve? Maybe he lays an egg in 2021. But suppose he gets Kern and Nesbitt to commit early. Keita feels pressure if he's considering SLU . That's just a fact of psychology. And really, it doesn't matter where his other offers are. It matters where he wants to go. 

And if SLU gets off to a great start, is ranked, and the 'Fetz is rocking, that will add pressure. Again, maybe he doesn't want to come. But it's entirely different if he has the exact same interest, but there are 4 open scholarships and it looks like Ford will have to dip into the 2* grab bag. A major recruit will know he can take his time with the SLU offer. 

What I'm saying isn't anything new. It's why you see a flurry of signings in hoops and more often in football. And it's the kind of phenomenon that Ford has positioned himself to be the beneficiary of, esp. if one or two guys sign this summer.

[slu72]

31 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

Terrence Hargrove in last years class is an ESPN 4 star recruit. And Okoro the transfer in this years class is a 4 star. 

Didn’t realize TJ was a 4. Okoro was a great get but we didn’t land him right out of HS. It seems to me that since Ford’s been here a fair amount of the area’s 4 + stars have gone elsewhere; Love, Watson, Tilmon, Liddell, Ramey, the kid who’s going to UK, Kasabuke and Stratford (?) to KSU. I think if we can build on the momentum the team is building in the A10, and stays there, he will have an easier job of keeping these kids at home. My post was not intended as a slam on Travis at all. 

[Coach314]

In regards to Kern...I don't see him signing early.  This was supposed to be his summer to blow up on the AAU circuit.  If that doesn't happen I see him waiting....Vashon gets a lot of college coaches visiting during the fall at their open gyms and they have another challenging schedule as well.  Nesbitt,  it would appear that after reclassifying and transferring to SLCA he might be looking for a P5 offer.  But then again Tate is a very good recruiter.  Either one would be amazing to get. 

[slu72]

Plus, if we continue to succeed, some of the guys who went big time but found playing time was hard to come by, may give SLU a second hard look. Especially if the new transfer rule is in effect. I don’t like that rule, but there could be cases where it works in our favor with the local stars. See McKinney. I don’t know where he’s headed or if we ever talked to him, but I don’t think he’s headed to a P5 school. 

[3star_recruit]

1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

Nesbitt is not exactly blue chip in the way Caleb Love was. He doesn't have offers from the blue bloods. I reject your premise about mid-major. If Ford keeps bringing in guys like Okoro, and, more importantly, if guys sign earlier, then it sends a message one way or another. Who knows what Ford has up his sleeve? Maybe he lays an egg in 2021. But suppose he gets Kern and Nesbitt to commit early. Keita feels pressure if he's considering SLU . That's just a fact of psychology. And really, it doesn't matter where his other offers are. It matters where he wants to go. 

And if SLU gets off to a great start, is ranked, and the 'Fetz is rocking, that will add pressure. Again, maybe he doesn't want to come. But it's entirely different if he has the exact same interest, but there are 4 open scholarships and it looks like Ford will have to dip into the 2* grab bag. A major recruit will know he can take his time with the SLU offer. 

What I'm saying isn't anything new. It's why you see a flurry of signings in hoops and more often in football. And it's the kind of phenomenon that Ford has positioned himself to be the beneficiary of, esp. if one or two guys sign this summer.

No, Nesbitt is a blue-chipper the way Tyler Cook, Courtney Ramey and Malcolm Hill were.  You'll have 4 star guys like Ramey who are looking for the big lights, you'll have guys like Cook who are looking to get away from home and you'll have guys like Malcolm Hill who are at least receptive to the idea of staying home. 

But make no mistake, they have the leverage even if they have interest in staying home. A 4 star has multiple high major options.  We don't have multiple 4 star backup options. 

[JettFlight5]

3 hours ago, slu72 said:

Didn’t realize TJ was a 4. Okoro was a great get but we didn’t land him right out of HS. It seems to me that since Ford’s been here a fair amount of the area’s 4 + stars have gone elsewhere; Love, Watson, Tilmon, Liddell, Ramey, the kid who’s going to UK, Kasabuke and Stratford (?) to KSU. I think if we can build on the momentum the team is building in the A10, and stays there, he will have an easier job of keeping these kids at home. My post was not intended as a slam on Travis at all. 

I think your list is pretty strong of those we didn't get (Mark Smith was a late riser to 4*)...I actually really wanted Bradford, but it seems like he ended up a falling star in terms of rankings. We would all love to have the profile that UK (Fletcher) and UNC (Love) have, but that's a long, long build. I think we have a better Kasubke on our roster in Jimerson as well.

Don't get me started on Kansas State...that is the kind of program that Travis will put in the rearview mirror. I really don't see Boone County Correctional as much of a threat these days either...things are going pretty darn well. It seems to me that not long ago even 3* players wouldn't give SLU the time of day (especially during the Jim Crews reign of error)...Travis is reversing that trend in a big hurry. 

[Clock_Tower]

Believe many have said the same thing, but I recall RM saying good local recruits are often harder to get than good non-locals.
 

And some guys want to stay home, play and be a star in front of their home town and build a winning program... but most not.  Most want an already established program. Going out of town to a top P5 programs means go to an established program- one where you will likely win, be a Tournament team, play on TV and get noticed/watched. We need to win and be a Tournament team most years. If so, the good locals will stay home. Until we win and become a Tournament team, we will need to win without the local 4 star kids

[RUBillsFan]

11 hours ago, Clock_Tower said:

Believe many have said the same thing, but I recall RM saying good local recruits are often harder to get than good non-locals.
 

And some guys want to stay home, play and be a star in front of their home town and build a winning program... but most not.  Most want an already established program. Going out of town to a top P5 programs means go to an established program- one where you will likely win, be a Tournament team, play on TV and get noticed/watched. We need to win and be a Tournament team most years. If so, the good locals will stay home. Until we win and become a Tournament team, we will need to win without the local 4 star kids

I mean this is sort of a basic math problem, right.  I understand general population doesn't necessarily = number of Division I basketball prospects, but let's assume it is a decent proxy:

St. Louis metro area is roughly 3 million people.  That is roughly the pool of talent you are trying to get to "stay home".

If you expand it to players who are interested in staying "close" to home, but getting away.  Let's say non-STL area MO and states within a 6-8 or so hour drive from MO (KS, NE, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, OH, MI, KY, GA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK).   That total population less STL metro area is roughly 100 million.

Expand it to the entire US and the population less STL metro area is roughly 325 million.

Very oversimplified - the average player would need to be 99 times more likely to want to stay home than go away (within the US) in order for there to be roughly the same number of local players who would want to play at SLU based on geography as non-local players.

That being said, there are obvious other advantages to recruiting locally (cost, time commitment, local players generating more local interest, etc.)

I think Ford is doing a good job balancing local recruiting with non-local.

 

[TheChosenOne]

17 hours ago, slu72 said:

Plus, if we continue to succeed, some of the guys who went big time but found playing time was hard to come by, may give SLU a second hard look. Especially if the new transfer rule is in effect. I don’t like that rule, but there could be cases where it works in our favor with the local stars. See McKinney. I don’t know where he’s headed or if we ever talked to him, but I don’t think he’s headed to a P5 school. 

Interesting thought, maybe signing Kern and Nesbitt could make us a real attractive option for Fletcher if things don't go well for him early in his career at Kentucky. Schools at that level tend to "process" kids fairly quickly.

[3star_recruit]

1 minute ago, TheChosenOne said:

Interesting thought, maybe signing Kern and Nesbitt could make us a real attractive option for Fletcher if things don't go well for him early in his career at Kentucky. Schools at that level tend to "process" kids fairly quickly.

Agreed.  The two-way effect of the rule was also pointed out by some of us months ago.  You're going to have as many frustrated 4 stars transferring down as there are superstar 3 stars transferring up.

[slu72]

3 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I mean this is sort of a basic math problem, right.  I understand general population doesn't necessarily = number of Division I basketball prospects, but let's assume it is a decent proxy:

St. Louis metro area is roughly 3 million people.  That is roughly the pool of talent you are trying to get to "stay home".

If you expand it to players who are interested in staying "close" to home, but getting away.  Let's say non-STL area MO and states within a 6-8 or so hour drive from MO (KS, NE, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, OH, MI, KY, GA, MS, AL, TN, AR, OK).   That total population less STL metro area is roughly 100 million.

Expand it to the entire US and the population less STL metro area is roughly 325 million.

Very oversimplified - the average player would need to be 99 times more likely to want to stay home than go away (within the US) in order for there to be roughly the same number of local players who would want to play at SLU based on geography as non-local players.

That being said, there are obvious other advantages to recruiting locally (cost, time commitment, local players generating more local interest, etc.)

I think Ford is doing a good job balancing local recruiting with non-local.

 

I think Travis has done the best job of bringing in locals since Grawer. Spoon did well w/ the Legend’s class but it never carried forward. Travis wants to build a moat around St. L. 

[NH]

If you look at our top recruits (by ranking/hype) since the start of the Soderberg era, the majority have been local. I believe the only consensus 4-stars we've landed are Gordon and Goodwin (Okoro as well if you count him). The highly-ranked 3-stars (~top 200 type players) include local guys like Lisch, Liddell, Brett Thompson and Hargrove and then some more national guys like French, Kwamain. The rankings don't translate exactly for foreign players, but it's also safe to say Cody Ellis and Rob Loe were in this tier of player as well. For a school like SLU, it is very difficult to land high-profile players (4-stars or high 3-stars) from out of state, unless you have some unique angle. Most 4+-star players from St. Louis won't go to SLU, but it's still much more likely than getting those types of players from Chicago, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, etc.

I think we should always take the best recruit who fits the team, regardless of where they're from. I don't see any point in taking a less talented kid from St. Louis over a player like Jett, Mccall, Evans, Mitchell, Conklin, French or any of the other terrific recruits we've landed from outside of St. Louis. But I do think there is no denying that if we land a 4-star kid, history says it's most likely going to be from St. Louis.

[Slu let the dogs out?]

43 minutes ago, NH said:

If you look at our top recruits (by ranking/hype) since the start of the Soderberg era, the majority have been local. I believe the only consensus 4-stars we've landed are Gordon and Goodwin (Okoro as well if you count him). The highly-ranked 3-stars (~top 200 type players) include local guys like Lisch, Liddell, Brett Thompson and Hargrove and then some more national guys like French, Kwamain. The rankings don't translate exactly for foreign players, but it's also safe to say Cody Ellis and Rob Loe were in this tier of player as well. For a school like SLU, it is very difficult to land high-profile players (4-stars or high 3-stars) from out of state, unless you have some unique angle. Most 4+-star players from St. Louis won't go to SLU, but it's still much more likely than getting those types of players from Chicago, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, etc.

I think we should always take the best recruit who fits the team, regardless of where they're from. I don't see any point in taking a less talented kid from St. Louis over a player like Jett, Mccall, Evans, Mitchell, Conklin, French or any of the other terrific recruits we've landed from outside of St. Louis. But I do think there is no denying that if we land a 4-star kid, history says it's most likely going to be from St. Louis.

Granted he was a transfer but I'd add Bess to the highly-ranked 3-star, top 200 national guy (I believe he was 4 on ESPN, 3 on Rivals).

[almaman]

52 minutes ago, NH said:

If you look at our top recruits (by ranking/hype) since the start of the Soderberg era, the majority have been local. I believe the only consensus 4-stars we've landed are Gordon and Goodwin (Okoro as well if you count him).

Wasn't father of FBLHJ a 4*?

[RUBillsFan]

52 minutes ago, NH said:

If you look at our top recruits (by ranking/hype) since the start of the Soderberg era, the majority have been local. I believe the only consensus 4-stars we've landed are Gordon and Goodwin (Okoro as well if you count him). The highly-ranked 3-stars (~top 200 type players) include local guys like Lisch, Liddell, Brett Thompson and Hargrove and then some more national guys like French, Kwamain. The rankings don't translate exactly for foreign players, but it's also safe to say Cody Ellis and Rob Loe were in this tier of player as well. For a school like SLU, it is very difficult to land high-profile players (4-stars or high 3-stars) from out of state, unless you have some unique angle. Most 4+-star players from St. Louis won't go to SLU, but it's still much more likely than getting those types of players from Chicago, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, etc.

I think we should always take the best recruit who fits the team, regardless of where they're from. I don't see any point in taking a less talented kid from St. Louis over a player like Jett, Mccall, Evans, Mitchell, Conklin, French or any of the other terrific recruits we've landed from outside of St. Louis. But I do think there is no denying that if we land a 4-star kid, history says it's most likely going to be from St. Louis.

IMO star rankings are garbage and are even more garbage once you get past the 4 and 5 star guys and into the more typical 3 or less guys that SLU has generally landed.

If you look at our best players since the start of the Soderberg era and ignore the flawed star rankings, most of them have actually been non-locals.  Here is my subjective ranking of the top 3 players each year with non-local in bold

2003: Perry, Fisher, Sloan

2004: Bryant, Fisher, Sloan

2005: Bryant, Ohannon, Drejaj

2006: Vouyoukas, Lisch, Liddell

2007: Vouyoukas, Lisch, Liddell

2008: Lisch, Liddell, Meyer

2009: Lisch, Liddell, Mitchell

2010: Mitchell, Reed, Ellis

2011: McCall, Conklin, Evans

2012: Conklin, Mitchell, Ellis

2013: Evans, Mitchell, Ellis

2014: Evans, Jett, Loe

2015: Yarbrough, Yacoubou, Crawford

2016: Yacoubou, Crawford, Bishop

2017: Roby, Bishop, Crawford

2018: Bess, Goodwin, Roby

2019: Bess, Isabell, Goodwin

2020: Goodwin, French, Perkins

I agree with the point that it is easier for a program like SLU (or like SLU has been in the past) to land a highly rated recruit if that recruit is local.  A highly rated non-local recruit had almost no incentive to look at SLU whereas a local who does want to stay home will give SLU a look.  However, that does not mean SLU should put more focus on recruiting higher level locals because those highly rated guys who want to stay home will be (or have been in the past) few & far between.  We've gotten burned in the past seemingly focusing too much of our resources on a highly rated local who decided to go elsewhere (Scott Suggs under Brad and Tatum under Crews).