Who will be #1 leading scorer this season (PPG)?

[gobillsgo]

The board has been very slow lately, so let's take a poll.  Who will be the #1 leading scorer, based on PPG, this season?  Qualifier is playing in at least half the games, so assume Graves will be eligible.

After about 48 hours, we can close this poll, remove the winner, and go on to leading scorer #2.  With so many new players, it could be fun to get people's thoughts on this.

[gobillsgo]

I voted Henriquez, but I could honestly see it being any one of Henriquez, Bess, Goodwin, Roby, or Graves (once eligible).  I could see this being a season where we have many players averaging around 10-12 ppg, but no one really pulling away.  I think Henriquez is most likely, due to his 3pt shooting ability.  Ford has repeatedly called him one of the best shooters he has seen.  I think 3s alone will account for at least ~ 9 ppg for Henriquez.

[Dr Bird]

Henriquez has demonstrated he can score and he'll have the green light to shoot.

[wgstl]

AD by a good distance. 

[RUBillsFan]

Just now, gobillsgo said:

I voted Henriquez, but I could honestly see it being any one of Henriquez, Bess, Goodwin, Roby, or Graves (once eligible).  I could see this being a season where we have many players averaging around 10-12 ppg, but no one really pulling away.  I think Henriquez is most likely, due to his 3pt shooting ability.  Ford has repeatedly called him one of the best shooters he has seen.  I think 3s alone will account for at least ~ 9 ppg for Henriquez.

I also voted Henriquez (he averaged the most PPG out of the transfers).  Roby actually has the highest season PPG of any of the returning players including transfers followed very closely by Bishop.

I can't see Bess leading the team in scoring.  His numbers at Michigan State just don't show him as a big time scorer.  He helps the team in other ways, but I don't think he'll put up a lot of points.

For reference each player's previous career high PPG (among those with prior NCAA experience)

1. Roby 11.7 in 33 games (2016-17)
2. Bishop 11.6 in 9 games (2016-17)
3. Henriquez 10.8 in 30 games (2014-15)
4. Foreman 7.9 in 32 games (2015-16)
5. Wellmer 7.9 in 33 games (2016-17)
6. Johnson 7.5 in 33 games (2016-17)
7. Hines* 6.4 in 33 games (2016-17)
8. Graves 4.8 in 11 games (2016-17)
9. Bess 3.0 in 31 games (2015-16)
10. Anthony 0.9 in 29 games (2014-15)
11. Goodwin (NA)
12. French (NA)
13. Santos (not eligible)

* - assuming he's on the squad

[SLU_Nick]

I would not count out Jalen Johnson as potentially the number 1 scorer.  If AH and Goodwin draws the other team's best defenders, JJ could have his way with whoever they try to throw at him. 

I think he will be a finisher, slasher, and he has already shown the ability to drill the open 3. 

I think he is a dark horse candidate to breakout in a big way. 

[Cowboy]

-I picked DR, senior, leader, year playing in the system, fighter, playing 4-6 less mpg will help him on both ends, wants to go out with a bang

-as others have said, could be one of a bunch

[RiseAndGrind]

Jordan Goodwin 

[slufan13]

Really like the idea/discussion. I think Henriquez is the safest bet to consistently score 10-12 points per game whereas I think the others may have a few games where they explode but then a couple games where they go cold. Roby is in the same boat as Henriquez for me, but I think Roby will be used more as a defensive stopper and a facilitator on offense next year. I try not to fall too in love with transfers but I think Henriquez gets the most shots per game so I think he wins a narrow race at the end of the year. 

[ACE]

I expect balance scoring, possibly 5 guys in the 13-9 ppg range.

[SShoe]

19 minutes ago, ACE said:

I expect balance scoring, possibly 5 guys in the 13-9 ppg range.

Agreed.  I'm hoping that it's Goodwin though.  It means we'll be really good because he's beating out numerous proven scorers.  

[TFord and TRavs]

Goodwin, AD and Bess are my guesses for top scorers. Roby could be top 5 but after those three I think French and Johnson 

[TFord and TRavs]

I also think the offense might be tailored to goodwin

[TheDude]

14 minutes ago, SShoe said:

Agreed.  I'm hoping that it's Goodwin though.  It means we'll be really good because he's beating out numerous proven scorers.  

Speaking of Goodwin, he helped out with the Althoff basketball camp this morning and looked great according to my son.  Threw down some dunks, ran some drills, etc.  He said you would never guess that he recently had shoulder surgery.  Good news!  I too hope that he leads the team in scoring, but I think it will be Henriquez.

[Quality Is Job 1]

I think it will be Adonys Henriquez, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a breakout year from Davell Roby.  I don't feel like looking it up, but who thought Brian Conklin would break out to lead the team in scoring and be first-team all-conference six years ago?  I'm hoping for that from Roby, though he already showed vast improvement between the beginning of the 2016-17 season and its end.

I also think we could see a leading scorer closer to 14-16 points per game.

Within the next few years we could see scorers averaging 15-19 ppg, or more: Henriquez, Goodwin, Gordon, Johnson (long shot), French (maybe a long shot, but he could be the next Billiken to average double-figure rebounds).

[RUBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

I think it will be Adonys Henriquez, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a breakout year from Davell Roby.  I don't feel like looking it up, but who thought Brian Conklin would break out to lead the team in scoring and be first-team all-conference six years ago?  I'm hoping for that from Roby, though he already showed vast improvement between the beginning of the 2016-17 season and its end.

I also think we could see a leading scorer closer to 14-16 points per game.

Within the next few years we could see scorers averaging 15-19 ppg, or more: Henriquez, Goodwin, Gordon, Johnson (long shot), French (maybe a long shot, but he could be the next Billiken to average double-figure rebounds).

If you're trying to guess how high our PPG leader's scoring might be, it probably makes sense to look back at some of Travis Ford's previous squads to get an idea:

SLU

2016-17: Roby - 11.7 (team 61 ppg)

Ok State

2015-16: Forte 13.3 (team 67 ppg)

2014-15: Nash 17.2 (team 68 ppg)

2013-14: Smart 18.0 (team 80 ppg)

2012-13 Smart 15.4 (team 72 ppg)

2011-12 Page 17.1 (team 67 ppg)

2010-11 Moses 14.1 (team 68 ppg)

2009-10 Anderson 22.3 (team 74 ppg)

2008-09 Anderson 18.2 (team 81 ppg)

UMass

2007-08 Forbes 19.4 (team 82 ppg)

2006-07 Freeman 14.7 (team 77 ppg)

2005-06 Freeman 13.6 (team 65 ppg)

Eastern KY

2004-05 Witt 14.4 (team 73 ppg)

2003-04 Witt 15.6 (team 73 ppg)

2002-03 Fields 16.1 (team 78 ppg)

2001-02 Fields 16.4 (team 73 ppg)

 

@Quality Is Job 1 seems to be spot on with history even if he didn't know it.  Last year was an exception as the previous low for the PPG leader on a Ford coached team was 13.3.  Every team is different, but given Ford's history a higher PPG leader wouldn't surprise.

 

[Pistol]

I think Roby will be an asset this season but don't think it'll show up in the points column, necessarily. This is his last shot. He's hungry and wants to win. He's already shown unselfishness on an untalented team; now that he's got some players around him, I think his role is senior glue guy. Whatever it takes.

I voted for Goodwin because he's the most talented player. That's all I've got. I have no idea how this team will play together. I like the pieces and have a hunch they'll mostly fit together well.

Any reason multiple people are abbreviating Adonys Henriquez as AD instead of AH?

[Quality Is Job 1]

2 minutes ago, Pistol said:

Any reason multiple people are abbreviating Adonys Henriquez as AD instead of AH?

It has been reported that on the team they call Adonys "AD": short for his first name.  It's an abbreviation, not initialism.

[Quality Is Job 1]

6 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

If you're trying to guess how high our PPG leader's scoring might be, it probably makes sense to look back at some of Travis Ford's previous squads to get an idea:

SLU

2016-17: Roby - 11.7 (team 61 ppg)

Ok State

2015-16: Forte 13.3 (team 67 ppg)

2014-15: Nash 17.2 (team 68 ppg)

2013-14: Smart 18.0 (team 80 ppg)

2012-13 Smart 15.4 (team 72 ppg)

2011-12 Page 17.1 (team 67 ppg)

2010-11 Moses 14.1 (team 68 ppg)

2009-10 Anderson 22.3 (team 74 ppg)

2008-09 Anderson 18.2 (team 81 ppg)

UMass

2007-08 Forbes 19.4 (team 82 ppg)

2006-07 Freeman 14.7 (team 77 ppg)

2005-06 Freeman 13.6 (team 65 ppg)

Eastern KY

2004-05 Witt 14.4 (team 73 ppg)

2003-04 Witt 15.6 (team 73 ppg)

2002-03 Fields 16.1 (team 78 ppg)

2001-02 Fields 16.4 (team 73 ppg)

 

@Quality Is Job 1 seems to be spot on with history even if he didn't know it.  Last year was an exception as the previous low for the PPG leader on a Ford coached team was 13.3.  Every team is different, but given Ford's history a higher PPG leader wouldn't surprise.

 

Thanks for the research, RU.  Based on that, I think team scoring should jump significantly this coming season.  70 ppg would be nice.

[billiken_roy]

13 minutes ago, Pistol said:

I think Roby will be an asset this season but don't think it'll show up in the points column, necessarily. This is his last shot. He's hungry and wants to win. He's already shown unselfishness on an untalented team; now that he's got some players around him, I think his role is senior glue guy. Whatever it takes.

I voted for Goodwin because he's the most talented player. That's all I've got. I have no idea how this team will play together. I like the pieces and have a hunch they'll mostly fit together well.

Any reason multiple people are abbreviating Adonys Henriquez as AD instead of AH?

 finally has explained who "AD" is.  I had no clue who they were talking about.   I hate the initials thing.  

[JMM28]

I think a lot of folks on this board are expecting a little too much from the transfers. What is the opposite of recency bias? The unknown bias? The backup QB bias? 

I am most excited about Henriquez but he was also the 2nd best player on a terrible couple of UCF teams. 

Bess was at a very high level school, but also accumulated only about 200 minutes of Big 10 playing time in 2 years. 

Foreman was a strong player on an absolutely terrible Rutgers team. 

While they are all an upgrade over the squad Crews was throwing out there, none of them strike me as All A10 types. I hope they are, but I am hoping for solid role players here. Hopefully one or two become starters on an A10 championship caliber team. 

[RUBillsFan]

29 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Thanks for the research, RU.  Based on that, I think team scoring should jump significantly this coming season.  70 ppg would be nice.

SLU used to run promotions based on scoring 70 or more points (half-price entree at Chevy's Fresh Mex or something).  Here hoping that under Ford the days of an embarrassingly low promotional bar for scoring are over or will be soon. 

[billikenfan05]

I actually hate this thread but not for content. I was watching hoping the board would reach the mythical 24 hours without a post plateau. 

[AnkielBreakers]

1 hour ago, JMM28 said:

I think a lot of folks on this board are expecting a little too much from the transfers. What is the opposite of recency bias? The unknown bias? The backup QB bias? 

I am most excited about Henriquez but he was also the 2nd best player on a terrible couple of UCF teams. 

Bess was at a very high level school, but also accumulated only about 200 minutes of Big 10 playing time in 2 years. 

Foreman was a strong player on an absolutely terrible Rutgers team. 

While they are all an upgrade over the squad Crews was throwing out there, none of them strike me as All A10 types. I hope they are, but I am hoping for solid role players here. Hopefully one or two become starters on an A10 championship caliber team. 

That is what stands out?  Not that 33% of the people think a freshman playing a new position in college will be the leading scorer?

[JMM28]

10 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

That is what stands out?  Not that 33% of the people think a freshman playing a new position in college will be the leading scorer?

In general this board is expecting way beyond reality for these transfers. 

I don't think it is as unreasonable for a top 50 recruit to come in and be the leading scorer on a team full of Crews recruits and transfers, no. Especially when factoring in the idea that he is probably as guaranteed of a starter as there is on this roster right now.