2016-17 Wins Prediction Thread

[Scoop]

15 wins

[thetorch]

6 wins

[Franchise_08]

Will have at least 1 embarrassing non conference loss. 14 wins. Realize only 1 player will make an impact in 2017.

[White Pelican]

10 wins. And that's being hopefully optimistic.

[aj_arete]

Couldn't be more excited about the future of SLU basketball, but can't see more than 13 wins. Would have to guess 11 wins. I think Coach Ford is more interested in building a culture and putting his imprint on the program, even though his style doesn't appear to fit to the roster's strengths. I think this is a solid approach even if it means sacrificing a few wins over the year. Regardless, I think this is a home run hire and I'm very excited about the future. 

In my mind, I think Ford is here over the long haul and is built for sustainable success that wasn't possible with the great Majerus.

[Billikenboy]

I think past history allows everyone to think it will be the same kind of season as last two but I think it will become very clear to many this is not the same go around. 

Ford has laid a strong foundation and I think has predictably kept expectations low to get everyone into a wait till next year mode. He is a fierce competitor, the players believe in him, he believes in them, and he has righted the ship. When a coach has high expectations of you as a player and shows you the way to achieve it, that can only have a positive effect on players that are now playing for each other. Talent level at SLU has always been high but Crewsplatt did not know how to harness it. Calling it now.....18+ wins. Final thoughts.....dunk city is back at SLU. Mentality around the program is high. These boys will compete! Beating SLU is not going to be a walk in the park.

Go Bills!

[drkelsey55]

+1

[Old guy]

This is a most interesting thread when read with a mind to analyze what people are saying and how they describe their reasons to do so. I have been very interested in stats and probabilitry for many decades now, part of my job prior to retirement as we all know. These are some of my conclusions:

1. We cannot predict the future basing our thoughts upon the past. From my point of view current trends are more important in trying to make these predictions. This means, at this time with only one exhibition game to be based on, that we have to consider our team as a new team for a whole pile or reasons. After the exhibition game, it appears to me that the many pieces that determine performance of a team are improved this year when compared with the past.

2. The crucial thing is whether this improvement will carry into real play with D1 schools including a lot of schools that are ranked much higher than we are (basically all of them in this year's schedule). We have no answer for this yet.

3. So what this thread really shows is how optimistic or how pessimistic we are at this time, I think this is a valid point of view. The other valid point of view is that we do not have a real idea of what will happen this season.

[cheeseman]

25 minutes ago, Old guy said:

This is a most interesting thread when read with a mind to analyze what people are saying and how they describe their reasons to do so. I have been very interested in stats and probabilitry for many decades now, part of my job prior to retirement as we all know. These are some of my conclusions:

1. We cannot predict the future basing our thoughts upon the past. From my point of view current trends are more important in trying to make these predictions. This means, at this time with only one exhibition game to be based on, that we have to consider our team as a new team for a whole pile or reasons. After the exhibition game, it appears to me that the many pieces that determine performance of a team are improved this year when compared with the past.

2. The crucial thing is whether this improvement will carry into real play with D1 schools including a lot of schools that are ranked much higher than we are (basically all of them in this year's schedule). We have no answer for this yet.

3. So what this thread really shows is how optimistic or how pessimistic we are at this time, I think this is a valid point of view. The other valid point of view is that we do not have a real idea of what will happen this season.

So what you are saying  is that past performance is not an indicator of future performance?  If you have a player that has scored 10 pts a game for 2 years then it is not reasonable to assume that he will at least do that again?  Yes I know factors impact that but is it not fair to assume that injuries or some other unrelated issue will  be in play?  A prediction is just that a best guess by the person making it.  No one is claiming to have a crystal ball.  Of course based on what people say it is fair to deduce that someone is either optimistic or pessimistic.  I usually do not get involved in predicting how many games a team will win or not win because frankly I do not want to waste my time and effort analyzing everything that must go into making a valid prediction but many do not feel that way so more power to them.  

PS - I will try your suggestion for the posting issue I am having but it just seems odd to me that this platform can not prevent this from happening.

[majerus mojo]

10 wins 

[David King]

14 wins!

[jimbofive]

16 wins.

[hsmith19]

Ball State L
Southern Utah W
Eastern Illinois W
BYU L
Alabama/Valpo L
Samford L
Kansas State L
@ Wichita State L
Chicago State W
@SIUC L
SIUE W
Winthrop W
Rhode Island L
@ La Salle L
Davidson L
@ Duquesne W
@ George Mason L
St. Bona L
@ Dayton L
UMass W
@GW L
George Mason L
NC A&T W
@ St. Bona L
Duquesne W
Dayton L
@ Fordham W
@ VCU L
Saint Joe's W
La Salle W
@ Richmond L

12-19, 6-12 A10
 

[HoosierPal]

OT, Duquesne lost to DII Mansfield University of PA, 79-74.  A Billiken series sweep?

[HoosierPal]

7 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

Ball State L

So your prediction is a one loss season.? SWEET!

[brianstl]

I don't think that even with the players we lost from last season that we can be worse than we were under Crewsplatt.  Barring any major injuries, 12 wins and maybe a couple more.

[SLU_Nick]

6 hours ago, Billikenboy said:

I think past history allows everyone to think it will be the same kind of season as last two but I think it will become very clear to many this is not the same go around. 

Ford has laid a strong foundation and I think has predictably kept expectations low to get everyone into a wait till next year mode. He is a fierce competitor, the players believe in him, he believes in them, and he has righted the ship. When a coach has high expectations of you as a player and shows you the way to achieve it, that can only have a positive effect on players that are now playing for each other. Talent level at SLU has always been high but Crewsplatt did not know how to harness it. Calling it now.....18+ wins. Final thoughts.....dunk city is back at SLU. Mentality around the program is high. These boys will compete! Beating SLU is not going to be a walk in the park.

Go Bills!

I think you have had similar projections over the last 3 years.  One of these years you will be right.  Just not this year.

[Taj79]

We beat Davidson last year...   yes, but that was last year.  I'm pretty sure if asked to project last year, I could nail it.  Maybe.  At least 50/50.

[GoSluBills]

14 Wins

[Old guy]

6 hours ago, cheeseman said:

So what you are saying  is that past performance is not an indicator of future performance?  If you have a player that has scored 10 pts a game for 2 years then it is not reasonable to assume that he will at least do that again?  Yes I know factors impact that but is it not fair to assume that injuries or some other unrelated issue will  be in play?  A prediction is just that a best guess by the person making it.  No one is claiming to have a crystal ball.  Of course based on what people say it is fair to deduce that someone is either optimistic or pessimistic.  I usually do not get involved in predicting how many games a team will win or not win because frankly I do not want to waste my time and effort analyzing everything that must go into making a valid prediction but many do not feel that way so more power to them.  

PS - I will try your suggestion for the posting issue I am having but it just seems odd to me that this platform can not prevent this from happening.

Hello cheeseman, yes past performance may be taken into consideration in making a prediction, BUT it is not by itself a predictor of future performance, it must be combined with other factors. In our case we have a new coach, a new system of play, a new atmosphere in the interaction between players and coach, new players, old injuries, and new tricks that old dogs (players) may have learned from the new coach. We do not know as yet how all of these, and other as yet undetermined factors, will mix together, but the combination of all of these factors is what will determine our results for this season. This season will categorically not be a mere replay of the past season. We do not really know how much we will differ from last year's performance at this moment in time. However, I think that there is reason for optimism and for hoping we will perform better than last year coming from our performance in the exhibition game. Of course, I may be wrong, but that is part of the prediction game, it is just my guess and I have no crystal ball either, neither does anyone else.

 

[TaLBErt]

14 Wins

[The Pelican]

12 wins

[moytoy12]

11-19

[moytoy12]

8 hours ago, Billikenboy said:

I think past history allows everyone to think it will be the same kind of season as last two but I think it will become very clear to many this is not the same go around. 

Ford has laid a strong foundation and I think has predictably kept expectations low to get everyone into a wait till next year mode. He is a fierce competitor, the players believe in him, he believes in them, and he has righted the ship. When a coach has high expectations of you as a player and shows you the way to achieve it, that can only have a positive effect on players that are now playing for each other. Talent level at SLU has always been high but Crewsplatt did not know how to harness it. Calling it now.....18+ wins. Final thoughts.....dunk city is back at SLU. Mentality around the program is high. These boys will compete! Beating SLU is not going to be a walk in the park.

Go Bills!

Has SLU ever visited dunk city? 

[JohnnyJumpUp]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Hello cheeseman, yes past performance may be taken into consideration in making a prediction, BUT it is not by itself a predictor of future performance, it must be combined with other factors. In our case we have a new coach, a new system of play, a new atmosphere in the interaction between players and coach, new players, old injuries, and new tricks that old dogs (players may have learned from the new coach). We do not know as yet how all of these, and other as yet undetermined factors, will mix together, but the combination of all of these factors is what will determine our results for this season. This season will categorically not be a mere replay of the past season. We do not really know how much we will differ from last year's performance at this moment in time. However, I think that there is reason for optimism and for hoping we will perform better than last year coming from our performance in the exhibition game. Of course, I may be wrong, but that is part of the prediction game, it is just my guess and I have no crystal ball either, neither does anyone else.