The Wiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like we could be in for another nailbiter at the Fetz. The last 2 games at the Fetz were against good teams ...VCU ( A ) and UMass ( B- ). and yet we took these teams to the final seconds. The inability to win the close ones (we have lost 4 close ones this year....5 or less pts) is a sign of an inexperienced team. We will win these games next year and beyond. Right now the trending arrow is still pointed up (for 6 weeks) though the last 2 games have been a pause. On to St. Joe ©. They are similar to G Mason in that they are a C team and like GM they have that big guy (Bembry) they will look for..(although not as big or imo as good as GM's guy) They are similar to UMass in that they can't shoot 3's. We need a win. This one would be a good one to get So here is what we need to do to win............. ........................................ideal outcome Offense Pts.......................................61 or more Slashline..............................43% / 33.3% / 66.7% Assists..................................13 Blks by SJ..............................4 or less Defense FG%.....................................40% 3pt%......................................25% Bembry..................................16pts Miles.......................................10pts Demery....................................4 Reb Bottomline...This is a very winnable game. St. Joe can't shoot 3's...so no open looks for them and they can't shoot FT's (yes they are worse than us) so if we foul them it is not as much of a concern...though we still have to make ours. If we follow the above prescription, we win. If we take them lightly, then they will do to us what they did to Davidson which was an A team. BTW...if it is as close as I think it will be, the crowd could make a difference...show up and cheer Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 DeAndre Bembry is light years better than Shevron Thompson. With the throw back Afro, he looks and plays a lot like Dr. J. He has taken over the games I've seen him play against Umass and the Bonnies. None of our bigs can stay with him so it will depend likely on Yarbrough or maybe even Agbeko. Agbeko? Yup, he's the only guy we have that compares physically to Bembry and might be able to balance some of Bembry out. I doubt it but we'll see. Early on, St. Joe's was Bembry and Bembry only. Lately, Isaiah Miles has started to come on. He too is like 6'8" or 6'9" and likes to roam the perimter. James Demery looks like a decent guard. He hasn't come on like Miles but is making nice progress. The rest are role players although AaronBrown has had some nice 20-point games of late. These guys are challenged, but the game will rest on if we can negate Bembry some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 DeAndre Bembry is light years better than Shevron Thompson. With the throw back Afro, he looks and plays a lot like Dr. J. He has taken over the games I've seen him play against Umass and the Bonnies. None of our bigs can stay with him so it will depend likely on Yarbrough or maybe even Agbeko. Agbeko? Yup, he's the only guy we have that compares physically to Bembry and might be able to balance some of Bembry out. I doubt it but we'll see. Early on, St. Joe's was Bembry and Bembry only. Lately, Isaiah Miles has started to come on. He too is like 6'8" or 6'9" and likes to roam the perimter. James Demery looks like a decent guard. He hasn't come on like Miles but is making nice progress. The rest are role players although AaronBrown has had some nice 20-point games of late. These guys are challenged, but the game will rest on if we can negate Bembry some. Bembry is 6-6, 210. It will likely be DR who guards him the most. AY may also take some turns. I would be surprised if Agbeko guarded him and MY may not do it much either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 No argument here. Doesn't matter --- going to be damn interesting, that's all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 SJU is not a tall team. This is the type of opponent where I think you could get away playing Agbeko some at the 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Saint Joe's already has three wins in the conference, including two against some pretty decent teams. It's a game I would hope we can handle, but I'm still a little surprised to see such a tight spread from the Wiz. Pretty tough to believe these teams were the conference champs last year. For all the talk of a down year conference-wide, it speaks pretty well of the A-10 that we are still looking at potentially four tourney teams in a year when the two defending title holders both take such drastic plunges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 -a few things I will be looking for tonight.... -too often it seems we attempt to rebound with our hands at waist level or below -we turn the ball over not because of defense but our own doing -the good ol' shot clock desperation shots, or not getting a shot because the shot clock expires -does the substitution pattern/5 on the floor make sense? -we get the ball, dribble once, pick up the ball with no idea before we pick up what we are going to do -Coach said last night StJ's is "a long team" at all but the 5 position, can we defend and rebound without fouling? MB in particular (what ever happened to being tall? why did tall evolve into long?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 St. Joes is like Dayton-lite...they don't play anybody over 6'8''. I don't mind if Bembry goes off as long as we can contain Isaiah Miles and James Demery. We can't let that type of guy get 15 pts and 8 rbs against us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I have a good feeling about tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Cowboy, "tall" didn't evolve into "long," at all; they mean different things. "Tall" refers to height from floor to the top of the head, and "length" refers to wingspan. Having "long" arms can be a considerable advantage in basketball: it makes it easier for defenders to get steals, increases passing-lane blockage, and makes blocked and altered shots more frequent. You don't necessarily have to be tall to be long, nor does being tall mean you will be long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Having grown up in and around the Big Five area, I've watched some pretty good Philly basketball over my time. The problem with Martelli's teams is they rarely go past six deep which, while it cuts the amount of brain drain needed by the "Young Frankenstein" lookalike, it can be problematic when you are in foul trouble, playing four games in four days, injuries, etc. I disagree with the "Dayton-lite' comment. Daytons' game is pass-pass-pass-pass-make the extra pass- shoot. They are fluid in motion. I won't ever expect Pierre and Pollard to be light on their feet and/or skywalkers. Bembry I might. I can see him J-ing or Dominque-ing at the next level. Maybe that's a little far-fetched but he looks that good. Why he is with Martelli coming out of the Carolinas I'll never fathom. I got Galloway out of Louisiana because he was related to one of Phil's assistants. Bembry is good. How did UNC, Duke, Clemson, NCState and the others miss? Got to be something there. While Bizz is correct in that no one is over 6'8", Dayton onylgoes 6'6" and I'll defer to the weights of these guys as well. Bembry is 200. Baumann is 257. Miles is 223. Brown goes 220. And Jai WIlliams, while he doesn't play much, does tip the scales at a listed 267. Scoochie, the Davis twins and Sibert are kids tothese guys. These guys are space eaters and that is what boxing out is all about. Hard to get a rebound when you need to call a cab to get around some guy. And our guys listed heights and weights all look comparable -- but it sure doesn't translate to much on the court -- Gillmann is having problems, Jolly is having problems and we won't touch our biggest load Manning at 250. At least Agbeko does indeed rebound and well. Have fun with Baumann and his resemblence to Sideshow Bob. I forgot about Davell on Bembry. I still think that's advantage Bembry but we'll see. Put Bartley on him and Marcus will foul out before one minute is off the clock (J/K). Although senior Chris WIlson might school the young Marcus some. But he's not that good either. The Umass game was amazing. Start of the second half, Umass scored 15 points and so did Bembry. Bembry went nuts. The tide turned when the other Hawks started pitching in, namely Miles and Demery as Bizz suggests. Another comer of late is Brown, who i haven't thought much of but who seems to be a huge X factor lately. This could be scrappy, playground, Pats or Genos, Philly ball tonight. Hopefully the kids are up for it. Can't wait. CBS Sports Net on the package. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We should win this. St. Joes isn't that good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Having grown up in and around the Big Five area, I've watched some pretty good Philly basketball over my time. The problem with Martelli's teams is they rarely go past six deep which, while it cuts the amount of brain drain needed by the "Young Frankenstein" lookalike, it can be problematic when you are in foul trouble, playing four games in four days, injuries, etc. I disagree with the "Dayton-lite' comment. Daytons' game is pass-pass-pass-pass-make the extra pass- shoot. They are fluid in motion. I won't ever expect Pierre and Pollard to be light on their feet and/or skywalkers. Bembry I might. I can see him J-ing or Dominque-ing at the next level. Maybe that's a little far-fetched but he looks that good. Why he is with Martelli coming out of the Carolinas I'll never fathom. I got Galloway out of Louisiana because he was related to one of Phil's assistants. Bembry is good. How did UNC, Duke, Clemson, NCState and the others miss? Got to be something there. While Bizz is correct in that no one is over 6'8", Dayton onylgoes 6'6" and I'll defer to the weights of these guys as well. Bembry is 200. Baumann is 257. Miles is 223. Brown goes 220. And Jai WIlliams, while he doesn't play much, does tip the scales at a listed 267. Scoochie, the Davis twins and Sibert are kids tothese guys. These guys are space eaters and that is what boxing out is all about. Hard to get a rebound when you need to call a cab to get around some guy. And our guys listed heights and weights all look comparable -- but it sure doesn't translate to much on the court -- Gillmann is having problems, Jolly is having problems and we won't touch our biggest load Manning at 250. At least Agbeko does indeed rebound and well. Have fun with Baumann and his resemblence to Sideshow Bob. I forgot about Davell on Bembry. I still think that's advantage Bembry but we'll see. Put Bartley on him and Marcus will foul out before one minute is off the clock (J/K). Although senior Chris WIlson might school the young Marcus some. But he's not that good either. The Umass game was amazing. Start of the second half, Umass scored 15 points and so did Bembry. Bembry went nuts. The tide turned when the other Hawks started pitching in, namely Miles and Demery as Bizz suggests. Another comer of late is Brown, who i haven't thought much of but who seems to be a huge X factor lately. This could be scrappy, playground, Pats or Genos, Philly ball tonight. Hopefully the kids are up for it. Can't wait. CBS Sports Net on the package. They sure looked like Dayton-lite against Davidson. Don't get me wrong though, they are wayyyy less talented than UD this year. But they are certainly attempting a similar halfcourt style. The problem is they suck at shooting and don't have as many ball-handlers. Being in Philly, I've seen more than a few St. Joes games the past few years and I have to say that Bembry (only a sophomore) impresses me more than anyone they've had in recent history...and that includes some pretty good players (Galloway, Jones, Roberts, and Aiken to name a few) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 -Coach said last night StJ's is "a long team" at all but the 5 position, can we defend and rebound without fouling? MB in particular (what ever happened to being tall? why did tall evolve into long?) True story. Many years ago a friend of mine wrote a profile of another friend of mine, Ray Hartmann. For the Globe weekend magazine, of all places. It started out, "Ray Hartmann is short. But he wants to be tall." A few days later I run into Hartmann, and when he sees me he puts on his "I'm pissed" face. "Dammit, Bonwich! I know you and that #$%^ are friends, but you call him and you tell him that lead was offensive." [perfect comedic timing] "It should have been 'Ray Hartmann is short. But he wants to be long.'" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We should win this. St. Joes isn't that good Agreed. This is a game we really should win and I think that we will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We should win this. St. Joes isn't that goodThe same can be said of SLU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 My Excel model using Crystal Ball monte carlo simulation analysis plus latin hypercube across 10,000 runs for Bills - St. Joes, shows Bills going down by one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like we could be in for another nailbiter at the Fetz. The last 2 games at the Fetz were against good teams ...VCU ( A ) and UMass ( B- ). and yet we took these teams to the final seconds. The inability to win the close ones (we have lost 4 close ones this year....5 or less pts) is a sign of an inexperienced team. We will win these games next year and beyond. Right now the trending arrow is still pointed up (for 6 weeks) though the last 2 games have been a pause. On to St. Joe ©. They are similar to G Mason in that they are a C team and like GM they have that big guy (Bembry) they will look for..(although not as big or imo as good as GM's guy) They are similar to UMass in that they can't shoot 3's. We need a win. This one would be a good one to get So here is what we need to do to win............. ........................................ideal outcome Offense Pts.......................................61 or more Slashline..............................43% / 33.3% / 66.7% Assists..................................13 Blks by SJ..............................4 or less Defense FG%.....................................40% 3pt%......................................25% Bembry..................................16pts Miles.......................................10pts Demery....................................4 Reb Bottomline...This is a very winnable game. St. Joe can't shoot 3's...so no open looks for them and they can't shoot FT's (yes they are worse than us) so if we foul them it is not as much of a concern...though we still have to make ours. If we follow the above prescription, we win. If we take them lightly, then they will do to us what they did to Davidson which was an A team. BTW...if it is as close as I think it will be, the crowd could make a difference...show up and cheer Go Bills A couple of issues before we do the game review.... 1. Who are these people who leave after regulation time? You gutted out the whole game ...how can you leave?? 2. This is an issue I wanted to discuss after the UMass game but never got around to it but it came up again tonight...in reverse. When you are down by 2 with the last possession, do you take a 2 or a 3? In the UMass game we took the 3...in the game tonight St. Joe elected to go for the 2. So what is the correct strategy? There are many factors involved ...which have already been discussed....UMass defense, poor 3 pt shooting St. J (though they were hot tonight ...furthering complicating the decision) etc. etc Here is my take from a numbers point...Take the 3pt shot...go for the win.. In the UMass example ....The Bills shoot 46.8%% for the season on 2pt shots coupled with a 50 -50 chance to win in OT=23.4% (46.8%x50%) vs taking the 3 (33.3% season ave) ...So 23.4% vs 33.3%....take the 3....In the St. J game tonight....St. J has 46% (2pt FG% season) x 50% (OT chance)= 23%...vs 29.1% (3pt season ave) much closer ...but St. J still should have taken a 3 on the last shot in regulation (plus they were hot from the arc tonight) Now this all needs to be tempered with the fact...no matter what you do you will probaly lose....in the Bills case when you do the right thing and take the 3 you still have a 2/3 chance of losing. Just my 2 cents (or 3) OK now onto the game review... Computer said it was going to be close....you can't come much closer than going to OT A great win on many levels...beat a team that was not bad ( C ) with one of the top players in the league. We finally closed out a close game to win... Important for a young team that has been trending up since mid Dec. After moving sideways for a few games we have taken the next step forward....Move up ...pause ...move up ...pause. The fan base will have to be patient. It paid off a few years ago. It will pay off again. So let's look at the numbers..... .........................ideal numbers...................actual Offense. Pts........................61....................................68........pass FG%.....................43%.................................49.1%...pass+....because of low % of 3's this is worth more 3pt %....................33.3%..............................20%.....fail- FT%......................66.7%..............................64.7%...fail Assists...................13....................................13........pass ....direct hit Blks by St. J............4......................................6.........fail Not listed TO's................................................................11....pass Offense grade........C+ Defense FG%.....................40%...................................37.9%.....pass 3pt%......................25%...................................40%.......fail....too many open looks especially in the beginning Bembry..................16pts..................................19pts....fail...but nice job anyway...the D on him was so tight that by OT he was gassed and didn't do much Miles.......................10 pts..................................8pts.....pass Demery....................4 Reb.................................0..........pass+ Not listed TO's....................................................................17...pass+ Overall Defense....B+ Bottomline...another step up the learning curve with a great win. The fact that we had just a C+ offense means that we have more potential. ...we could have won this game by 14pts...average shooting would have meant 2 more 3's plus 1 more FT (2x3+1=7pts more) But I will take the win. We can use those extra points we left on the table in the next game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 1. Who are these people who leave after regulation time? You gutted out the whole game ...how can you leave?? An excellent question. We even had an early start tonight. Most nights the game is over around 9 PM anyway, it's not like it's ever very late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Our home game against Dayton starts at like 8:30. I wonder how many people will stay for the opening tip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FromDaEastSide Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I heard Gus call final score and thanks for coming at the end of regulation. That must be why they headed for the exits. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Does Gus have an assistant now? He did not do the preliminary announcements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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