The Wiz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Through Sat Feb 8........ The Bills numbers were hurt slightly by the close win over LaS....But helped by the win by St. J....so overall a slight improvement. ...............The Wiz.............................AP poll Ariz............1.......................................2 Iowa...........2.......................................17 Duke..........3.......................................11 Kan............4........................................8 Lville..........5........................................14 Nova..........6.........................................6 Mich St.......7.........................................9 Creigh.........8.........................................12 Ohio St........9.........................................27 Fla...............10........................................3 Mich.............11.......................................11 Iowa St..........12......................................16 Ok St..............13......................................19 Wisc................14......................................26 Ky....................15.....................................18 Va....................16.....................................20 Syr...................17......................................1 Pitt....................18......................................25 UCLA................19.....................................ORV Wich St..............20....................................4 SDSU................21......................................5 Gonz..................22.....................................23 UConn...............23......................................22 THE BILLS........24......................................13 Ore.....................25......................................NR Other A-10 teams VCU 30 UMass 38 GW 42 And of course , a win over VCU next week ( a blow out) would kick us up nicely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Doesn't UCLA get disqualified for losing to SPUMAC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Okie St 13th, really? They have lost 5 of 6 and lost two starters for the year. They are a borderline tournament team at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Doesn't UCLA get disqualified for losing to SPUMAC? I gave UCLA a couple of points for the Tyus Edney win...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Creighton's numbers might be a bit inflated because of the Villanova game... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Okie St 13th, really? They have lost 5 of 6 and lost two starters for the year. They are a borderline tournament team at this point. They are fading ...they just won't go quietly....their last 5 losses have not been easy ones...... @KU ( A+ ).....lost by 2 Beat WVU ( A- ) by 6 @OK ( A ) ....lost by 12 Bay ( A- ).....lost by 6 Ia St ( A+ )...lost by 1 Triple OT @TTU ( B+ )....lost by 4 That is quite a mouthful. They had a great start ...blowout against Mem and a big win over Tex...and their numbers have carried them....The recent half dozen games have weaken them but OK St is still playing tough....I think their season will be decided this week....Tex and OK....if they go 2-0, they are back ....0-2 and their season is over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Creighton's numbers might be a bit inflated because of the Villanova game... The Nova game was one of the most impressive wins by any team this season.....A 28 pt blowout of an A+ team at Nova's place. While it certainly helped them, they are a good team besides that win dominating many good teams recently with a 14-1 run. The Big East is no slouch of a league and they are eating them up. Bottom line.... they are for real and have earned their A+. In addition they have the #1 player in the country plus they are the #1 shooting 3 pt team in the nation. I would love to see the Bills play them. What a game that would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 St John's up on creighton 35-30 in the first half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 St John's up on creighton 35-30 in the first half St John's has been playing good basketball recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 St. John's has a ton of athletes. Creighton not shooting 85 percent from 3 like the 'Nova game either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 St. John's has a ton of athletes. Creighton not shooting 85 percent from 3 like the 'Nova game either. BE is a tough conf....from top to bottom....St. John's is an A- rated team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 St John's up on creighton 35-30 in the first half #12 Creigton knocked off by St Johns, thank you Coach Whitesell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills By 40 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really lost some respect for you, Wiz. The AP poll isn't that misguided and ignorant that you need to mess it that much... SLU at 24? 11 spots lower? Even though I'm a homer, that's ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really lost some respect for you, Wiz. The AP poll isn't that misguided and ignorant that you need to mess it that much... SLU at 24? 11 spots lower? Even though I'm a homer, that's ridiculous.Wiz uses a specific algorithm to calculate the rankings. It is his own unique system based on certain offensive and defensive statistics. I'm pretty sure he doesn't like to put slu at 24, but that is what comes out on his computer.The good news is that everyone will see the AP rankings (not Wiz's ranking)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really lost some respect for you, Wiz. The AP poll isn't that misguided and ignorant that you need to mess it that much... SLU at 24? 11 spots lower? Even though I'm a homer, that's ridiculous. The Bills' problem in Wiz's formula has been that they haven't routed some weaker teams as often as one might like. Personally, I think there's no way that SLU isn't a top 15 or top 10 team, despite what some numbers say. I think Wiz could maybe adjust his formula weight assigned to margin — decrease it by about 50 percent of what it currently is. My feeling is that the point of playing a basketball game is to win, not to "pad" stats for the sake of appearing to be more dominant. I don't think it should be like the RPI, in which only the outcome matters, but I do think the emphasis on margin of victory should be reduced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills By 40 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't know or care what his computer systems do, the Bills have earned the Top 10 ranking they're gonna receive tomorrow morning. Haven't lost since about November and their only losses are to a top 5 team and a top 26 team... 9-0 on the road and in conference? 24th is an insult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will say that Wiz's rankings certainly raise my eyebrows a little more than last year and not just because of the SLU ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is pretty simple. It isn't just W-L record, it's strength of schedule & number of quality wins, and to a lesser extent, minus bad losses. Sure, there are some other factors but those are the basic fundamentals. Our SOS is unfortunately > 90, our top win is at home against Richmond or maybe our road win versus St. Joe's. The A-10 is overrated. We are paying the price for a weak non conference and conference schedule with the credible rating systems, like Las Vegas. What would our record be in the Big 12, the Big 10? Hard to say, but, think about it. The good news is we MIGHT be better than we think, we won't know until we hit the stretch run vs VCU 2x and UMass and then the NCAA's. Like some .300 hitters in AAA cannot hit major league pitching, but some go to the majors and keep hitting .300. (Wong might be the wong guy for the job... or maybe he will hit .300, TBD). I'd like to see us get into the NCAA's and beat UCLA in the second round and Iowa in the third round. It is possible, IMO. The numbers thus far are not in with our Billikens, though we might be better than we know. But SOS and quality wins, they are not there. Oh, algorithms too, we need those to improve. The Wiz is more accurate than The AP in his assessment for our team at this point. Vegas has The Billikens tied for 31st. We can prove them wrong and get to the Sweet 16 or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills By 40 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is pretty simple. It isn't just W-L record, it's strength of schedule & number of quality wins, and to a lesser extent, minus bad losses. Sure, there are some other factors but those are the basic fundamentals. Our SOS is unfortunately > 90, our top win is at home against Richmond or maybe our road win versus St. Joe's. The A-10 is overrated. We are paying the price for a weak non conference and conference schedule with the credible rating systems, like Las Vegas. What would our record be in the Big 12, the Big 10? Hard to say, but, think about it. The good news is we MIGHT be better than we think, we won't know until we hit the stretch run vs VCU and UMass and then the NCAA's. Like some .300 hitters in AAA cannot hit major league pitching, but some go to the majors and keep hitting .300. (Wong might be the wong guy for the job... or maybe he will hit well, TBD) The facts are not in on our Billikens, we might be better than we know. But SOS and quality wins, they are not there. Oh, algorithms too. The Wiz is more accurate than The AP in his assessment. Vegas has The Billikens tied for 31st. While I mostly agree with you, we've also won nearly every chance we've gotten. Outside of the #4 team in the nation and a strong Wisconsin team that'll crack the rankings once again this week, we've beaten every single team we've come in contact with. Not to mention, every team we've seen in the last 70 days. To say the only way we could've "proved" ourselves was if we were 24-0 is asking a hell of a lot out of this team. We couldn't of had two better losses, and say we won those and had some "better wins" or "more top 50 wins", let's substitute two other losses in their place. So we have two more top 50 wins, but now have two "bad losses". I couldn't be happier with this season and we fully deserve the respect we're getting from the AP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bsheldon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um...you have the Bills at 24. Ok fine. But, Syracuse at 17??? How is that possible? If your computer hadn't noticed, they have beat every team they have played including the team ranked 3rd on your list. It just makes me question your program a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well if I let my personal feelings in ... I would just make the Bills #1.... But the whole idea is to have an objective system...and using a modeling system is probably the best idea. It is tempting to adjust the system .."to fix it" when it doesn't look right but then you start to build in a bias. Remember, it was this same flawed system in late 2011 moved the Bills to an A team...this following on the heels of an 11-19 season. By Jan 2012....I had us in the teens much to the shock of the board. Many at that time "knew" my system was flawed or that I was drinking the blue kool-aid. I had even used the dreaded E word (elite) when the Bills had not yet received a vote in the AP. The system measures not only what the Bills do, but everyone the Bills have played. So when St. J , a team we crushed, beats an A team like VCU we get a nice boost. Wisc a team that the AP had given up on was still 14 on my list... Good enough to beat MSU. This Badger win will show up in the Bills #'s tomorrow. (btw I had MSU at 7 ...AP at 9--so when I was close to AP it turned into a loss..lol) The model is pretty good at spotting trends, finding up and coming teams, hidden weaknesses,and most of all comparing teams who have not faced one another. Is it perfect, ...no....but it is right many more times than it is wrong. At the beginning of the season, I used it to forecast this year's record In the preseason thread on the board here ...On my post, i just wrote 32-5 though I didn't break it down. The actually breakdown was 28-3 reg season...2-1 A-10 tourney...2-1 NCAA....I think at the begining of the season most would not have had a problem with that forecast....yet at 24th in mid Feb the system looks flawed. Bottomline.....Use it as an alternative tool ( a different point of view) to evaluate the Bills and other teams. One last thing ....parity....In ranking teams , we truly split hairs . There is no difference between team 23 and team 24. There is a difference between the first dozen and the second dozen...how about between 12 & 13 ...again no difference. The downside of ranking is to magnify minute differences and overlook the parity that exists in college basketball especially in the top 50 or so teams. In the end, it takes a computer model to analyze those minute differences to rank teams or produce a spread. Lest we not forget that to be 24th...we are better than 327 other teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is pretty simple. It isn't just W-L record, it's strength of schedule & number of quality wins, and to a lesser extent, minus bad losses. Sure, there are some other factors but those are the basic fundamentals. Our SOS is unfortunately > 90, our top win is at home against Richmond or maybe our road win versus St. Joe's. The A-10 is overrated. We are paying the price for a weak non conference and conference schedule with the credible rating systems, like Las Vegas. What would our record be in the Big 12, the Big 10? Hard to say, but, think about it. The good news is we MIGHT be better than we think, we won't know until we hit the stretch run vs VCU 2x and UMass and then the NCAA's. Like some .300 hitters in AAA cannot hit major league pitching, but some go to the majors and keep hitting .300. (Wong might be the wong guy for the job... or maybe he will hit .300, TBD). I'd like to see us get into the NCAA's and beat UCLA in the second round and Iowa in the third round. It is possible, IMO. The numbers thus far are not in with our Billikens, though we might be better than we know. But SOS and quality wins, they are not there. Oh, algorithms too, we need those to improve. The Wiz is more accurate than The AP in his assessment for our team at this point. Vegas has The Billikens tied for 31st. We can prove them wrong and get to the Sweet 16 or better. I do not concur that the A-10 is overrated. That's the narrative of the "power" conference people. The A-10 is currently superior to the SEC and Big East and probably nearly even with the Pac 12 and Big 12. Maybe not top to bottom in every case, but certainly at the top. Make up your mind, MB. Last year you claimed Wiz was full of malarkey because he had the Bills better than popular opinion (the polls), but now that he has the Bills lower than popular opinion, he's "accurate"? You're starting to sound a bit like Steve Einspanier or someone who really doesn't want SLU to prosper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zink Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I really like models such as the one(s) the Wiz uses. I do, however, think there is one minor flaw in the margin of victory/PPP methods, and that is that all points are not equal. Two points in a blowout are not the same as two points in a close game (eg St Joe's making a lay-up at the buzzer, walk-on time at the end of games). There should be some sort of alternative, non-linear distribution for weighting spreads, and/or for simply ignoring the ends of blowouts. Games cease being predictive of future performance once the guys on the court are not representative of the team's actual line-up. Similarly, I appreciate the nuance of statistically driven assessments vs just looking at the W/L column. All wins (and losses) are not the same. GM, RI & LaSalle have all been toss-ups in my mind. Those are games we easily could have lost, and evaluating them probabilistically rather than deterministically paints a more accurate picture of our actual performance. Senior leadership, or some other nebulous, qualitative explanation for our ability to pull those games out speaks to why we love sports - you still have to play the games and execute when the chips are down. I do think the Bills have outperformed their record this year. Our offense has been inconsistent, and our stifling defense has been a little less ridiculous lately. We seem to be getting better offensively, and I am really excited for us to see what this team is truly capable of down the stretch (wow, that sounds silly when talking about a team on a 16 game run, but I still think we can get better). We haven't quite reached the overall level of play we've seen the past two years, but I think we are heading in the right direction. I think the Wiz & KenPom have us about where we belong at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um...you have the Bills at 24. Ok fine. But, Syracuse at 17??? How is that possible? If your computer hadn't noticed, they have beat every team they have played including the team ranked 3rd on your list. It just makes me question your program a bit. Recently, 8 days ago, Syracuse tied Duke. At home. Home court for Syracuse is worth 5 points. Therefore, Duke is 5 points better than Syracuse based upon that game. Yes it went into OT and Syracuse pulled out a 2 point win. It is not that simple but a way of looking at it. Later in the season, the games are weighted higher in a true rating system as younger teams jell, improve, and other slip, lose players due to injuries. The system I follow has Syracuse tied for # 8. But they are 3 ppg away, very close to being # 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Um...you have the Bills at 24. Ok fine. But, Syracuse at 17??? How is that possible? If your computer hadn't noticed, they have beat every team they have played including the team ranked 3rd on your list. It just makes me question your program a bit. I dealt with this issue on post #46 on the 1st 25 list I put out. In any case, you will have an answer on Wed when Pitt plays Syr. A close game validates my numbers ...an easy Syr win and the AP is on target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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