Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You continue to downplay the difficulty of winning at St. Joes and LaSalle. Both teams are far superior to Rhode Island and Duquesne and we all know how difficult getting those wins were. For anyone dreaming of running the table, Ken Pomeroy currently gives it a 2.3% chance of happening. Sagarin has it as a 1.5% probability. OK, you are right, that is what Ken Pomeroy and Sagarin say. I am not underplaying the difficulty of winning any Div 1 games at all, I just believe we are up to the task. I assure you that I am very aware I can be wrong, and will not take it personally if I am indeed wrong and we lose either one of the Philly games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclecarl Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That said; I'm going out on a limb here: I think the LaSalle game is big trouble. I'm ready to concede that it may well be our first loss in A10. What will the spread be? Ace is correct: My main worry right now is the 2 road game swing next week. And if not LaSalle-- I think our losses will come to hard to predict teams -- like @ Duquesne, which was a very lackluster effort ... I hope I'm wrong but 2 wins in Philly will be very tough. Look at UMass losing in Olean last night... I think we'll definitely lose 2-3 in conference before it's said and done -- our schedule is back-loaded. According to rpiforecast.com, the games will be tight. The linked chart will show the spreads for all remaining games. Basically, we should beat handily those teams farthest from us record-wise and have a tougher time with those closer to us. (So what's new about that???) And please, Old Guy, don't use the I-word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Don't want to get too far ahead here.... But we will be favored in both Philly games Chances of a sweep....41% So yes, this will be a tough road trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I haven't watched them, but from the box scores, GW doesn't appear to have lost a step without Savage. I do think we matchup better (based on the little I've seen) against GW than we do UMASS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed! He may have recorded a nice double double, but he still didn't play like I would've expected. If you told me the final score of the game and asked me to guess DE's stat line, it would've been a lot nicer than in reality. On the bright side, it's nice to see big roles played by people like JJ AM and even MM chimed in a couple times last night. We're gonna need that if DE's gonna stay stuck in this stage of mediocrity. Evans was nearly always doubled after his initial flurry. What I'd like to see is a quicker kickout to someone who could make them pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I haven't watched them, but from the box scores, GW doesn't appear to have lost a step without Savage. I do think we matchup better (based on the little I've seen) against GW than we do UMASS. Moytoy, I would agree with this. Perhaps the Savage injury will make GW less of a formidable opponent to us when we get to play them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David King Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Off topic, but, as I watched the Richmond game last night, I started thinking about a topic I hadn't thought about in weeks- The Billikens need to get the hell out of the A-10! Richmond is one of the better teams this year, and they suck! UMass, GW, maybe St. Joes, or Dayton every now and then are going to have good season, but in general they will be mediocre, and other than VCU everybody else stinks. Bringing in GM this year, and Davidson next year is a downgrade. Any news on the Big East? It should be clear by now that their Butler experiment has failed. They had a couple of good coaches in the past, but now they are fading back into their normal obscurity. In a perfect world, the powers that be would kick out Butler and bring in SLU immediately. They can site a lack of due diligence, stating they didn't know Butler wasn't Catholic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think the A10 sucks from a quality standpoint, but it does suck from a visibility/name recognition standpoint as far as our region is concerned. Most of these schools do not resonate with Midwesterners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Again, per RPIForecast, are the probabilities of winning each of the 10 remaining games. GMU - 89% SJU - 61% LAS - 62% VCU - 57% GMU - 76% GWU - 66% DUQ - 92% VCU - 36% DAY - 74% MASS - 35% If you assume we win any games at 75%+, that locks us in 3 wins. There is an 85% chance we win at least 1 game in Philly, so that makes 4 wins. There is an 83% chance we win at least one of Dayton + UMass, which makes 5. The last games to consider are VCU, GW and @VCU. There is a 67% chance we take at least 2, which gets us to the 7 wins I'm looking for. But, that doesn't exceed the 75% assumption threshold, so I wouldn't claim it's an MB73 **** Lock or anything. My calculator gives the Bills less than a 1% chance of running the table. That seems low. Not saying it is going to happen but I would lay some money down at a 100-1 payout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Any news on the Big East? It should be clear by now that their Butler experiment has failed. Disagree David King. Any conference will have good and bad teams in it. Big East had a number of original members that would have won little from forming a new league unless they somehow rose in rank within the new league. Bringing a team to cushion the bottom rank of the league, and particularly a team with name recognition and a reputation of excellence, might have been a goal for them. The addition of Butler to the Big East has provided relief to the likes of DePaul, St. John's and even Georgetown, none of which is doing very well this year. From their point of view at the very least, it is a fine thing to have Butler sitting at the bottom of the Big East. They can claim: "As we all know Butler is very very good, but all of us in the Big East are even better..." As far as some of the original members of the Big East are concerned, bringing Butler in is a success, not a failure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I don't think the A10 sucks from a quality standpoint, but it does suck from a visibility/name recognition standpoint as far as our region is concerned. Most of these schools do not resonate with Midwesterners. +1 Cusumano was touting the A-10 again today, reminding folks that it is ranked higher than the SEC and the MVC. I think unfortunately, the "casual" fan doesn't get it. When our attendance was high, we were in a more high profile league with Memphis, DePaul, Marquette, Cincinnati, Louisville. To make matters worse, just as we are starting to build rivalries with Xavier and Butler, they are depart the conference... now we're even more of a Western outlier in this league. Attendance is just one of many reasons why getting in the Big East is so important to our future. Agree with David King, Butler getting in pi$$es me off more than any of the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Big East was built on taking the best programs that fit...then they go take Butler? It's what happens when people get caught looking in the rearview mirror. Butler has 2 Big East wins. 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I do not mean to be argumentative but keep in mind that oftentimes there are significant differences between the public statements made and the internal needs and wishes of the founding teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would also hesitate to declare Butler a failure in the Big East just yet. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy seeing them lose, but they've barely played half a season as a member of the conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would also hesitate to declare Butler a failure in the Big East just yet. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy seeing them lose, but they've barely played half a season as a member of the conference. What has "hurt" their perception more than Butler being awful is that the teams with "tradition" are in the tank this year too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agreed! He may have recorded a nice double double, but he still didn't play like I would've expected. If you told me the final score of the game and asked me to guess DE's stat line, it would've been a lot nicer than in reality. On the bright side, it's nice to see big roles played by people like JJ AM and even MM chimed in a couple times last night. We're gonna need that if DE's gonna stay stuck in this stage of mediocrity. DE stuck in a stage of mediocrity. Seriously? His numbers aren't far off from last year up a point per game and down a board and a half while shooting a little less of a percentage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If we're going to malign Butler in the Big East, are we also going to complain about George Mason joining the A10? They haven't won a game yet. As the Big Ten will tell you, there are more important things driving conference affiliations than the play on the field/court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If we're going to malign Butler in the Big East, are we also going to complain about George Mason joining the A10? They haven't won a game yet. As the Big Ten will tell you, there are more important things driving conference affiliations than the play on the field/court. I already had that diatribe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You continue to downplay the difficulty of winning at St. Joes and LaSalle. Both teams are far superior to Rhode Island and Duquesne and we all know how difficult getting those wins were. For anyone dreaming of running the table, Ken Pomeroy currently gives it a 2.3% chance of happening. Sagarin has it as a 1.5% probability. Both are 100% higher probabilities than they were 1-2 weeks ago. Table. Will. Be. Run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The biggest difference I see in DE from his last 8 or 9 games last year, when he really showed his talents, and this year is he's not popping the mid range jumper as much. Last night he hit one and I hope we see more of that from him. Of course, he was at the 3 last year and now he's the 4. Still, he draws a lot of double and even triple teams down low, so it's gonna be hard to beat that on a consistent basis. If GG had stayed at the 4 and DE was free to hit that mid range jumper, no one would be saying he's in a funk. I still think the staff has to find a way to get RL more involved in the inside game to free up DE from getting mugged every time he's on the low post. Although I like that high low RL and DE run from time to time. As for the Butler issue, the Beast jumped at them because of the two final 4s. Plain and simple. From the Horizon to the Big Time in two years is a big leap. Heck they didn't do all that well in the A10 last year. W/ Stevens leaving they lost some of their cache, and the short time frame of the jump from mid major to major is starting to show. But let's not cast stones, we could be in the same predicament next year after our SR's are gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Both are 100% higher probabilities than they were 1-2 weeks ago. Table. Will. Be. Run. Yes Sir, indeed they have improved. And we will beat them if all proceeds the way it should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would also hesitate to declare Butler a failure in the Big East just yet. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy seeing them lose, but they've barely played half a season as a member of the conference. Rosey Jones season-ending preseason injury was an absolute killer for the Bulldogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rosey Jones season-ending preseason injury was an absolute killer for the Bulldogs. Brad Stevens leaving late didn't do them any favors either. Yes, I dislike Butler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We were very, very impressive last night. I was blown away by how easily we dominated Richmond, and their supposedly great guards (but man they are little); and the game was over by halftime. We made the Spiders' offense look silly out there, we were very impressive on defense; and their guards made Jordair look like an all-American. this team could be very tough come tournament time -- IF we can shoot from outside (remember Oregon!!!). That said; I'm going out on a limb here: I think the LaSalle game is big trouble. I'm ready to concede that it may well be our first loss in A10. What will the spread be? Ace is correct: My main worry right now is the 2 road game swing next week. And if not LaSalle-- I think our losses will come to hard to predict teams -- like @ Duquesne, which was a very lackluster effort ... I hope I'm wrong but 2 wins in Philly will be very tough. Look at UMass losing in Olean last night... I think we'll definitely lose 2-3 in conference before it's said and done -- our schedule is back-loaded. The first half of the LaSalle VCU game the Explorer's were playing AAU ball, mostly Garland. If our defense frustrates him, like they should, I'm not ready to concede an L to LaSalle. And we always seem to play well at St. Joe's, probably because of that stupid bird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The first half of the LaSalle VCU game the Explorer's were playing AAU ball, mostly Garland. If our defense frustrates him, like they should, I'm not ready to concede an L to LaSalle. And we always seem to play well at St. Joe's, probably because of that stupid bird. I think Coach Crews and this D would love to see someone try to schoolyard them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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