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Bills by 12 over USC Upstate


The Wiz

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And so it begins....

At this point there are no teams connected so I will be using a Bayesian probability formula to start with (as many prognosticators do at this time of the year) and gradually phase it out over the next few weeks. By Thanksgiving there should be enough connected dots to make reasonable forecasts.

I have the Bills starting out as an A- team....USC shows to be a C+ team. This is a game we should win but Upstate is no cupcake.

This season promises to be one of great promise and excitement or one of great disappointment and letdown. Does Crews with his decades of experience as a seasoned coach take a tested and skilled team to the A-10 championship and then onto the Dance. Or does the team miss the "Majerus magic"....the combination of superb X's and O's mixed with team synergy....the abiity to make the end result greater than the sum of its parts....to make ordinary players extraordinary. If they do miss the "magic" and they don't click with Crews it could be a long season. Of course as always injuries will play a factor. We will miss KM in KC . I think the team to beat in the A-10 wil be VCU. Not too far behind will be Butler, UMass and Dayton. Even with the loss of Temple, I think the A-10 has improved its standing this year.

Should be an interesting and fun year. I am in the camp that Crews will meet the challenge and that we will have a good year....The computer has the Bills at A- and that says we are good. I will bill-ieve it until I am shown otherwise.

GO BILLS

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And so it begins....

At this point there are no teams connected so I will be using a Bayesian probability formula to start with (as many prognosticators do at this time of the year) and gradually phase it out over the next few weeks. By Thanksgiving there should be enough connected dots to make reasonable forecasts.

I have the Bills starting out as an A- team....USC shows to be a C+ team. This is a game we should win but Upstate is no cupcake.

This season promises to be one of great promise and excitement or one of great disappointment and letdown. Does Crews with his decades of experience as a seasoned coach take a tested and skilled team to the A-10 championship and then onto the Dance. Or does the team miss the "Majerus magic"....the combination of superb X's and O's mixed with team synergy....the abiity to make the end result greater than the sum of its parts....to make ordinary players extraordinary. If they do miss the "magic" and they don't click with Crews it could be a long season. Of course as always injuries will play a factor. We will miss KM in KC . I think the team to beat in the A-10 wil be VCU. Not too far behind will be Butler, UMass and Dayton. Even with the loss of Temple, I think the A-10 has improved its standing this year.

Should be an interesting and fun year. I am in the camp that Crews will meet the challenge and that we will have a good year....The computer has the Bills at A- and that says we are good. I will bill-ieve it until I am shown otherwise.

GO BILLS

So you don't think Saint Joseph's will be good enough to contend for the A-10 title?
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Where do you have us ranked going into the season Wiz? Just curious.

I have us at 34 which is considerably better than last year when we started around 60.

If we have a succesful KC trip we could climb very quickly.

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I have us at 34 which is considerably better than last year when we started around 60.

If we have a succesful KC trip we could climb very quickly.

That's a fair ranking. The Majerus factor, losing Conk and Mitchell out with a broken foot throw a fair amount of uncertainty into this team. I'm concerned we will stumble out of the gate before finding our footing. If we start strong, look out. We'll only get better as the year progresses.
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When KM returns we are still definitely the team to beat in the conference. MM and JJ as juniors can definitely be as good as KM was last year as a RS junior. When KM returns we'll be that much better. Don't see any reason why they won't "click" with Crews since he has the same coaching philosophy as RM.

Having said that, if I were betting on this game I would take USC Upstate getting 12 points.

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Pomeroy has USC-Upstate at 97th. Dan Hanner/Basketball prospectus has USC-Upstate at 113. This team could be better than the Gamecocks. Santa Clara is 154th in Pomeroy and 146th in Hanner so they are likely not great but decent as well.

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I just read an article on them where Pomeroy has them ranked #2 in SC behind Clemson. They're ranked higher than CofC, USC, Furman, and Coastal Carolina. They are picked to come in 2nd in Atlantic Sun conference. I suspect they'll be athletic. Also, their coach has been there since day 1. As someone said they're 97 in Pomeroy's overall ranking. This won't be the cakewalk I expected, ie a 30 point blowout. Instead it will be a good opening day test for the Bills and Crews. A game we should win, but we've seen too many UT Martins, AK Little Rocks, etc come here and win. Hopefully, those days are far behind us.

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I just read an article on them where Pomeroy has them ranked #2 in SC behind Clemson. They're ranked higher than CofC, USC, Furman, and Coastal Carolina. They are picked to come in 2nd in Atlantic Sun conference. I suspect they'll be athletic. Also, their coach has been there since day 1. As someone said they're 97 in Pomeroy's overall ranking. This won't be the cakewalk I expected, ie a 30 point blowout. Instead it will be a good opening day test for the Bills and Crews. A game we should win, but we've seen too many UT Martins, AK Little Rocks, etc come here and win. Hopefully, those days are far behind us.

I'd rather go this route given the talent we have rather than scheduling a 250+ gooey cupcake for the first game. Even without Mitchell, our entire starting lineup will be upperclassmen. They'll take care of business.
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I'd rather go this route given the talent we have rather than scheduling a 250+ gooey cupcake for the first game. Even without Mitchell, our entire starting lineup will be upperclassmen. They'll take care of business.

I was at the game. I noticed that CR no longer has that deer in the headlights look and no hesitation as to what to do with the ball. Not perfect, but much better.
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I think this is a great team to start with. At C+ they are slightly above average...just good enough to be a significant challenge. I think below 100 is a bit optimistic for Upstate. I would put them more around the 140 area. The 12 point spread is more volatile as a 1st game. Think of it as more of an average at this point. ie if we play them 10 times we would win by an average of 12. If we play them like we did Rockhurst in the 1st half...the game will go down to the buzzer. If we play them like we did Rockhurst ib the 2nd half we win by 20+. And if we play the game like the entire Rockhurst game(one good half, one bad half) we win by 12.

I think it is promising that the 2nd half was the good one in that it shows we learned/adjusted. That bodes well for the Upstate game.

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I was at the game. I noticed that CR no longer has that deer in the headlights look and no hesitation as to what to do with the ball. Not perfect, but much better.

I picked Cory as my sleeper inside player last week. Glad to hear the solid report on him from the pregame. He might be our best rebounder outside of Dwayne but I was impressed with the way Cody improved on the defensive glass as the season progressed last year. Jett is a beast of a rebounder of guard. He'll help the bigs.
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