kwyjibo Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 3.4% to Final Four!. 1 in 200 shot at national title. There is never going to be an easy draw but Memphis in the first round was a tough one. According to Pomeroy, Memphis has a better chance than 11 of the 12 5-7 seeds. Pomeroy's comments: "The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend." http://kenpom.com/blog/ Wiz could also do a "log 5"/Bill James analysis with his system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 3.4% to Final Four!. 1 in 200 shot at national title. There is never going to be an easy draw but Memphis in the first round was a tough one. According to Pomeroy, Memphis has a better chance than 11 of the 12 5-7 seeds. Pomeroy's comments: "The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend." http://kenpom.com/blog/ Wiz could also do a "log 5"/Bill James analysis with his system. On the positive side, you have to beat the tough teams eventually if you are going to make a run, so IF we can get past Memphis and pull off an upset against MSU, we could make a run (and would have a ton of confidence). Probable? No. A chance? You bet. That's why you play the game. Looking forward to a great weekend in Columbus! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjray Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 On the positive side, you have to beat the tough teams eventually if you are going to make a run, so IF we can get past Memphis and pull off an upset against MSU, we could make a run (and would have a ton of confidence). Probable? No. A chance? You bet. That's why you play the game. Looking forward to a great weekend in Columbus!The plus side of the tough matchup is that it is drawing attention from the analysts. If we pull an upset (in their eyes) by knocking off Memphis, there will be national buzz for our matchup against Mich. State. Huge exposure for the program. The game against Memphis is monstrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomble Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 3.4% to Final Four!. 1 in 200 shot at national title. There is never going to be an easy draw but Memphis in the first round was a tough one. According to Pomeroy, Memphis has a better chance than 11 of the 12 5-7 seeds. Pomeroy's comments: "The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend." http://kenpom.com/blog/ Wiz could also do a "log 5"/Bill James analysis with his system. Box, I was about to post the same clip. Great minds. If anyone's interested, taking a poll on how far the bills will go: http://bmbl.us/y7tyF0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 3.4% to Final Four!. 1 in 200 shot at national title. There is never going to be an easy draw but Memphis in the first round was a tough one. According to Pomeroy, Memphis has a better chance than 11 of the 12 5-7 seeds. Pomeroy's comments: "The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend." http://kenpom.com/blog/ Wiz could also do a "log 5"/Bill James analysis with his system. I prefer a Modified Pythagorean Theorem for Basketball using a 13.91 exponent (the Morey Model). I may have to drop it though because MB says it is worthless. I guess he knows better than those who developed it....Bill James, Stats Inc, Daryl Morey and MIT. Nobody compares with Mom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliKat Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 ;D awesome-o. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 The plus side of the tough matchup is that it is drawing attention from the analysts. If we pull an upset (in their eyes) by knocking off Memphis, there will be national buzz for our matchup against Mich. State. Huge exposure for the program. The game against Memphis is monstrous. If we win, I would not consider it an upset. But you are correct ...some would and yes this game is getting a lot of attention. In my original thread I referred to this game as the worst possible matchup. I was speaking as a Bills fan. As a basketball fan this is a great game so in that regard the Selection committee was successful....two highly ranked evenly matched teams. I think that this game is not only the best 8/9 matchup but also one of the best games in the 1st round. Certainly, watching NC destroy Vermont won't be very entertaining. In fact, it wasn't very ebtertaining watching SLU wipe them out. But if the Bills can pull out a win in a closely matched game, then the spotlight will be on us. And if we face MSU they will be favored but they won't be a heavy favorite. So there is a fair possibility of dancing for a bit. For now....Friday Focus = Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Pine Jim Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Wiz, we know that Jimbo is at A+++ in posting for today. What are the odds that this was the greatest string of posts ever ? I'll check back to see your response when/if my tears of laughter ever stop. Maybe some of the older timers have an opinion ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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